ONS s Data Collection Programme: What does it mean for Labour Market data?

Transcription

1 ONS s Data Collection Programme: What does it mean for Labour Market data? Ian O Sullivan, Ed Dunn & Andrew Phelps Office for National Statistics Social Survey Division

2 Context Better Statistics, Better Decisions a strategy for UK statistics Spending Review New analytical needs; new data sources We have to deliver the savings; we have to remain relevant and useful So we have to change the way we do things

3 Data Collection Transformation As part of our Spending Review 15 bid, we made the case to invest in Data Collection Transformation: To rebalance ONS data collection activity significantly toward wider, more integrated use of administrative data sources, thereby reducing our reliance on large population and business surveys.further, the remaining survey operations will become more efficient through a move from paper and personal interview-based collection to online data collection.

4 Benefits Higher quality statistics More relevant, more detailed, more timely, more accurate, more coherent At reduced cost With reduced respondent burden With reduced staff stretch More able to keep up to date with rapidly changing technology With potential to wider Govt DC services hence wider govt savings and /or income for ONS Reduced delivery risk ( in the longer term )

5 Non-Survey Data Non-survey data is not a new idea! Non-survey data is already used in official statistics ONS has over 500 non-survey data sources - Bank of England, DWP, HM Treasury provide financial data for National Accounts - Department for Business and Innovation* provides data on learner records and trade union membership for migration and GDP estimates

6 Digital Economy Act (2017) The Act clears the numerous legal barriers that have evolved over time preventing ONS getting administrative data, when we need it. It has replaced about one-quarter of the 2007 Statistics and Registration Service Act. Gives ONS legal rights to access data held by Government departments, other public bodies, charities and large/medium-sized businesses where that data is needed to support our work.

7 Digital Economy Act (2017) Gives ONS an important role overseeing a new framework to support the wider UK research community, within government and beyond. Enables accreditation of researchers who want to access (and link together) administrative datasets for research projects for the public good. This builds on the success of the ONS Approved Researcher programme and newer initiatives such as the Administrative Data Research Network.

8 Digital Economy Act (2017) Working on new codes of practice that underpin the statistics and research strands in the Act. ONS data to start becoming available from March 2018.

9 How will ONS use non-survey data? Improve survey coverage Replace survey questions Targeted sampling Improved sample frames Improved quality New outputs More timely data Reduced burden on respondents

10 Where is our focus? Enhanced sample frame Question replacement

11 Enhanced Sample Frame Some addresses on the sample frame contain ineligible households such as: - Business addresses - Vacant properties - Derelict properties - Second homes Supplement sample frame with admin data (LA Council Tax) to identify these types of properties AddressBase likely to be sample frame

12 Identifying types of residences/ communal establishments Building owners billed for council tax: House in multiple occupation, e.g. bedsits with communal washing and cooking facilities Residential and nursing homes Some hostels Convents & some vicarages Properties occupied by asylum seekers Student halls of residences

13 Question replacement LFS Employed/Self employed Left last job Started job Redundancy No. of employees NI Payments Use of computer (at home) HMRC P45/P60 HMRC Full Payment Summary HMRC NI Database Redundancy Payments Service HMRC Expenses and Benefits

14 Earnings Gross pay Pay period Net pay Usual pay Statutory sick pay Main job and second job New outputs on shared parental leave? HMRC PAYE/SA Statutory Sick Pay Statutory Adoption Pay/ Shared Parental Leave HMRC Full Payment Summary Statutory Maternity/Paternit y

15 Respondent Characteristics Country of birth Marital status Living as a couple Children in household Accommodation as part of job Status of maternity leave Marriage and Civil Partnerships HMRC Expenses and Benefits Tax Data Births and Deaths Register Benefits Data (Child Tax Credit/ Child Benefit) HMRC Statutory Maternity Payments

16 Statistical Considerations Concept alignment between the non-survey data and survey data Coherence between survey and non-survey estimates Quality assessment e.g. timeliness, accuracy, vacuity Knowledge of how data supplier collects and processes data before delivery to ONS Engage with and inform stakeholders Methodologies to link the data

17 Transformation of the LFS Transformation not translation Questionnaire will need to be shorter simpler designed for self-completion and multiple modes Respond to the Bean Review, and user needs (respondents & stakeholders)

18 Research and testing Approach to research planning: Focus on research to support prototype labour market quant test Main focus is online although other modes are considered and aim to have questions that are equivalent Initial research scope: - review of existing LFS questionnaire content - development and quali testing of a Labour Market survey online, face-to-face, and telephone - respondent engagement strategy and materials

19 Testing plan Online take up tests (July and Sep 2017) Online retention test (Nov 2017) Statistical mixed mode test (Spring/ Summer 2018) 1 wave Longitudinal test (2019/20) Parallel run start (2019/20) Fresh samples for each test Iterative process detail of later tests likely to change following results of early tests Full analysis of outcomes, questionnaire data and relevant paradata

20 Initial 2017 online take up test (Test 1) Purpose Provide an early indication of uptake for a Labour Market Survey online Provide evidence of the most effective comms strategy to maximise initial online uptake (excluding incentive considerations) Test take-up of enquiry line service and nature of calls No specific test of q re content/look or analysis of survey data but some evidence of q re length/proxy rates/partial completion.

21 Initial 2017 online take up test (Test 1) Basic design Mail out to c.37,000 households Test for most effective: - Number of comms (prenote+invite+reminder vs. invite+2 reminders vs. invite+1 reminder) - Envelope colour (brown vs. white) - Day of week the invite letter is received (Fri vs. Mon) - National branding on envelopes (Wales and Scotland only) Issue to 12,600 addresses in each of England, Wales and Scotland New sample of addresses Test fieldwork 12 th -24 th May th -19 th July 2017

22 Overall response Number of visits to ONS website page: 8,891 Number of clicks on Start now button : 8,280 Entered access code + started survey: 6,835 (19.9%) Of these 6,835: Full household response 5,906 (17.2%) Partial household response (usable) 643 (1.9%) Partial household response (unusable) 286 (0.8%)

23 Communications strategy Three test groups: Invitation letter + 1 reminder % Prenote letter + invitation letter + reminder % Invitation letter + 2 reminders %

24 Mailing day of the week Wednesday % Friday %

25 Envelope colour Brown % White 17.7%

26 Nation specific envelope branding Country With branding (%) Without branding (%) Total (%) England Scotland Wales

27 Further 2017 online test (Test 2) Purpose Provide another indication of uptake for a Labour Market Survey online Establish the likely most cost effective incentive strategy No specific test of q re content/look or analysis of survey data - but further evidence of q re length/proxy rates/partial completion with a slightly longer q re

28 Further 2017 online test (Test 2) Basic design Mail out to c.40,000 households Test impact of: No incentive vs. 5 unconditional + 10 conditional vs. 5 unconditional vs. Non-monetary incentive (tote bag) New sample of addresses Online test fieldwork September 2017

29 September 2017 online test (Test 2) Basic design Mail out to c.40,000 households Test impact of: No incentive vs. (22.5%) 5 unconditional + 10 conditional vs. (30.8%) 5 unconditional vs. (29.3%) Non-monetary incentive (tote bag) (27.0%)

30 What next? November 2017 November 2017 online follow up of Test 1 respondents (test 1b) -Test 1 6,327 households responded, 5,226 gave an or phone number (83%) - Test 1b will follow-up online the 5,226 with the Test 2 q re - No information will be rotated forward - What proportion will do it again? - Will we get ve feedback about not rotating forward information?

31 What next? Spring/Summer 2018 Spring/Summer wave mixed mode test: - What happens when the interviewers visit online nonresponders? What response rate do we get? - What do outputs look like from mixed mode data? - Issue c.11-12k online, c. 8k to field. - Use NISRA to host online in Blaise - Scope to do an online Wave 2-3 months later and/or 12 months later

32 Prototype Labour Market Survey Need to review entire LFS content and consider non-survey sources 600 Questions & DVs - Labour Market and Non-Labour Market Labour Market core questions driven by the LM Framework Non-labour market to be driven by user requirements Content will change dependent upon findings of work on value of non-survey data

33 Prototype Core Labour Market Survey Seven key LM variables: CURED8 Current Education Received DURUN Duration of ILO Unemployment FTPT Whether working full-time or part-time INECA05 Economic Activity REDUND Whether made redundant in the last 3 months SECJMBR Whether second job/status in second job SUMHRS Total actual hours worked in main and second job Questions required to derive these seven variables are prioritised.

34 Key Labour Market Variables

35 Non-labour Market Data Hundreds of variables on current LFS What can non-survey data do? Improve? Replace? New analysis? ONS will investigate the efficacy of administrative sources Survey collection

36 Any questions?

37 Contacts: ian.o And