Labor Market Assessment (LMA) Modules and Questions

Transcription

1 Labor Market Assessment (LMA) Modules and Questions Systems/Stakeholder Mapping Policy GATHER ANALYZE SYNTHESIZE What are the institutional What are the country s What policies impact the labor relationships, barriers and economic and human market and what are the opportunities for supporting capital trends? implications for reform? change? Supply of Skills Economic Context and Analysis What occupations, education levels and skills levels Which sectors currently absorb are possessed by the workforce? What types of labor and which are likely to see training are offered by which institutions? increases in employment? Demand for Skills What are the skill sets required: by function in the value chain, by type of firm, by region? Alignment What are target population characteristics and dynamics (by segment)? What are entry points for youth and other groups? How can alignment be improved through systems change (and policy reform)?

2 System Map: Who s in the workforce system, what do they do, and how they are connected? Public Sector Planning Finance Trade Social Dev. Education Labor Youth Agriculture Sci./Tech Training Institutes Education Council Competitiveness Council Education Business Associations Private Sector Primary Intermediaries Post-Sec. Academic Secondary Professional Post-Sec. Technical Sector Commissions Youth/Adovcacy Groups Employment Matching Formal HR Development Ad hoc HR Development Trade Unions Current and Future Workforce

3 Country Dashboard: What are the Indonesian economic, human capital and policy indicators and trends? Indonesia What are the demographic trends? In 2014 Indonesia has a large young population, aged 5-20, so demand for employment opportunities will continue to rise in the near term. (IFS) Age Male Female The population in 2014 is 250 M with the growth rate steadily declining over the last 30+ years. (IFS) Economics Human Capital Policy Demographics Population (millions) Annual Growth Rate % (M) (%) % 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Urban areas experienced an average annual growth rate of 2.99% over the last 10 years, while rural areas experienced annual growth rate of -.16%. As of 2013, 52% of the population was urban. (WDI) Of the 114 million Indonesians employed in 2013, 61 million worked in the informal sector. (ILO) Population Aged m 250m Employed 114m Unemployed 7m Inactive 54m 130m Urban 119m Rural Formal 53m Informal 61m In-School 15m Homemakers 32m Other 7m

4 Economic Context and Analysis: Which Indonesian sectors have potential for future growth? Indonesia What are the trends in relative market Economics Human Capital Policy Exports share and market size of exports? From , Indonesia had a strong increase in market share of Mineral Fuel/Oil and Animal/Vegetable Fats. Gold experienced a strong increase in both relative market share and world market size. (GTA) 2012 exports=$3b 40% Miscellaneous Chemical Products 30% Growth rate of relative market share -15% Fish, Crustaceans & Aquatic Invertebrates Nuclear Reactors, Boilers, Machinery Etc.; Parts Plastics and Articles thereof Wood and Articles of Wood; Wood Charcoal -10% Paper and Paperboard and Articles (Inc Paper Pulp Art) Electric Machinery Etc; Sound Equip; TV Equip; Pts Copper and Articles thereof -5% Apparel Articles and Accessories, Not Knit Etc. 20% 10% 0% -10% Manmade Staple Fibers, Incl Yarns & Woven Fabrics -20% 0% Vehicles, except Railway or Tramway, and Parts, etc. Organic Chemicals Footwear, Gaiters, Etc and Parts thereof Articles of Iron or Steel Coffee, Tea, Mate and Spices Animal or Vegetable Fats Mineral Fuel, Coal, Oil, etc Tin and Articles thereof Rubber and Articles thereof Apparel Articles and Accessories, Knit or Crochet Nat Etc Pearls, Prec Etc Stones, Pr Met Etc; Coin 5% 10% 15% 20% -30% Ores, Slag and Ash Growth rate of relative market size

5 How can Product Space analysis improve sector selection? Product Space analysis indicates that products in the central, dense portion of the space offer the greatest potential for growth and diversification due to spillover effects. Petroleum Gases Crude Palm Oil Rubber Conveyor & Transmission Belts, Compounded Rubber Coconut Oil Electrical Machinery & Parts Cluster Letterstock Furniture Parts Apparel Cluster The apparel and electrical clusters are two of Indonesia s top export industries and are located in high-density locations. Product complexity is similar therefore opportunities may be present for employment spillover between industries. Coal Briquettes Most Indonesian export products with revealed comparative advantage 1 (colored bubbles) are isolated from the central cluster, therefore hold few knowledge and technology linkages to other products.

6 Skills Demand: What are the skill sets required by function in the value chain, by type of firm, and channel for Indonesian auto parts? VALUE CHAIN MAP FOR AUTOMOTIVE COMPONENTS INDONESIA With Youth Entry Points Overlay in Channel 1 DOMESTIC MARKET EXPORT MARKET Alignment Do-It-Yourself Market Repair Shops Retailers International Markets Distribution Wholesalers & Distributors Exporters Quality Control Distribution & Marketing Accounting OEM Aftermarket Assembly Manufacturers 1st Tier OEM Proccessing Non OEM Component Manufacturers Component Manufacturers 2nd tier Casting, forging, stamping, extruding, grinding, milling, polishing Stocking Welder, etc. Mold/Dye Manufacturers 3rd tier Molding and dying Accounting Semi-Finished Materials Wiring, cables, hardware Inputs Stocking Raw Input Suppliers Steel, plastic, rubber aluminum, glass, textiles, paint, paper, foam Stocking CHANNELS Channel 1 Non-OEM Producers Channel 2 Med & Large Scale OEM Producers LEGEND: Less than secondary diploma High School Graduate TVET Certificate 2 Years Post Secondary Diploma or above University Degree Gender

7 Understanding the Policy Environment to Identify Key Bottlenecks CIBER TOOLS Initial strategic decision matrix Economic analysis Strategic decision matrix Inventory of constraints/gaps Key constraints/gaps STAKEHOLDERS ANALYSTS Survey Inventory of business environment constraints n Triage Endorsement Economic appraisal Choice Strategic assessment Advocacy campaign RIA of Monitoring and evaluation NEW LAW/ REGULATION GOVERNMENT proposed changes

8 Skills Supply: How do we understand skills development systems, delivery, and who pays for it? On-the-Job Training funder: primarily private sector target: employees implementer: firms, private training providers Work-Readiness Skills funder: mix of public and private target: individuals preparing to enter the labor market implementer: public education system Foundational Skills funder: primarily public sector target: school-aged children and youth implementer: public education system

9 Skills Supply: Stocks and Flows in Indonesia Education to Labor Market In School 81% 93% 69% ECD G M G M G M University 5 M Post-Grad 37 K Technical Tertiary 1 M 209 K 655 K 4 K 718 K 136 K 164 K 739 K Youth Workforce Less Than Primary Education 4.3 M Less Than Secondary Education 33.8 M Secondary Education 21.6 M Tertiary Education 3.6 M Growing 7% p.a.* Shrinking 4% p.a.* Shrinking 1% p.a.* Growing 18% p.a.* Less Educated Workforce Educated Workforce Turning Age K 2 M 1 M 134 K *Average per annum growth rate

10 Labor Market Assessment (LMA) Tools and Approaches Systems/Stakeholder Mapping Policy GATHER ANALYZE SYNTHESIZE Institutional and systems maps Casual loop analysis Social network analysis Supply of Skills Skills for Employment Stocks and flows data and diagram Mapping of institutions, pipeline and capacity Demand for Skills Sector selection Employer interviews Country Dashboard Macroeconomic Trade & investment Labor & social protection Education Structural factors Economic Context and Analysis Assessment of export and investment data Product space analysis Value chain analysis: occupations, processes, and requirements Alignment Youth and gender assessments Champion validation