Project Appraisal Using PRISM Simon Hubbard 28 th September 2004

Transcription

1 Project Appraisal Using PRISM Simon Hubbard 28 th September 2004

2 Introduction : Overview of Presentation - Option Appraisal Policy Context - Potential PRISM Applications - Use of the Model / Scale of the Appraisal Area - Transport Model Outputs : Appraisal Inputs - Application to Major Schemes and Studies - Environment - Safety - Economy - Accessibility - Integration - The Way Forward for Option Appraisal : Evolving Policy - Shared Priorities - Local Transport Plan Guidance Second Edition

3 Introduction : Policy Context The New Approach to Appraisal (1998) White Paper : A New Deal for Transport Better for Everyone (1998) Guidance on Full LTPs (2000) Guidance on the Methodology for Multi-Modal Modelling Studies (2000) Full Guidance on LTPs Second Edition : Draft for Consultation (July 2004) Proposed Definitions for Mandatory LTP Indicators (July 2004) Project Appraisal Guidance on Preparing an Economic Impact Report (July 2003) Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG) Units (Evolving since 2003) White Paper : The Future of Transport : A Network for 2030 (2004) Transport Appraisal and the New Green Book (2004) Major Scheme Appraisal in LTPs : Detailed Guidance on Public Transport Plans and Highway Schemes (2004) Shared Priority Delivery Plan (2004)

4 Introduction : Potential PRISM Applications Definitely Possible Possible Assistance Not Possible Metro Extensions Park and Ride Showcase Bus Routes Land Use Planning Fuel Prices and Fare Policies Regional Express Railway New Street / Coventry / Wolverhampton 4-Tracking Western Access Routes Parking Policies Inputs to Local Detailed Models User Charging B Ham Airport Surface Access Local Highway Schemes Green Travel Plans Hearts and Minds Measures Freight Initiatives M42 Widening Stourbridge / Walsall Heavy Rail Cycling and Walking Initiatives Demographic Changes Changing Work Practices Individual Planning Applications Area Calming Schemes Internet Usage and E-Commerce

5 Introduction : Use of the Model / Scale of the Appraisal Area Important that appraisal is undertaken using a sufficiently detailed model platform: -The full West Midlands PRISM network -Enhanced and updated networks -Cordon isolated models -Conversion to local VISSIM tools

6 Introduction : Potential Traffic Model Outputs / Appraisal Inputs - Years - Base year (2001) - A series of reference years (2011, 2021 and 2031) - Time periods - AM Peak ( ) and PM Peak ( ) - Inter Peak ( ) and Off Peak ( ) - 24 hour combination - User classes / and journey purpose - Highway (Private) - Car business - Car commute - Car education - Car other - LGV - HGV -Public Transport -Train -Metro -Bus -Walk

7 Introduction : Potential Traffic Model Outputs / Appraisal Inputs Matrices - Full 898 x 898 level or sectored into areas - By user class and journey purpose - In a TUBA format if so required - Demand matrices of zone-to-zone trips - Skimmed matrices of zone-to-zone statistics - Travel time - Distance - Generalised cost On-screen view of matrices Aggregation of zones to form sectors

8 Introduction : Potential Traffic Model Outputs / Appraisal Inputs Assigned Network Results - Full or smaller area models - By user class and journey purpose - Numerically or graphically (eg bandwidths) - Potential to output in Mapinfo, CSV or Access - Link flows - Congestion - Queues and delays - Congestion indicators (eg actual / free flow volumes) - Travel Times - Speeds Vehicular flows (bandwidth proportional to value) Link saturation as conditional bandwidths (>75% in red) Mean junction delay (circle proportional to value)

9 Introduction : Potential Traffic Model Outputs / Appraisal Inputs Travel Demand Features - Full or smaller area models - By user class and journey purpose - Numerically or graphically (eg bandwidths) - Potential to output in Mapinfo, CSV or Access formats - Desire lines - Mode split tables - By mode and purpose - Trip distributions - (eg trees and forests ) - Public / private mode share - Population characteristics Variable bandwidth desire lines between particular origin / destination pairs Mode split tables by mode and purpose for zone origins

10 Application to Major Schemes and Studies : The NATA / AST Framework Qualitative Impacts Quantitative Impacts Assessment Environment Safety Economy Accessibility Sub-Objectives Integration

11 Application to Major Schemes and Studies : The NATA / AST Framework PRISM Outputs Contribution to Appraisal Environment Safety Economy Accessibility Integration Quantified changes in: Demand (eg OD patterns) Traffic volumes (eg link flows) Mode (eg transfer to sustainable modes) Vehicle composition (eg % HGVs) Vehicle speeds (eg stop / start conditions) Descriptive changes through: Integration of modelling with supporting GIS-style database to permit graphical presentation of baseline and with scheme scenarios (eg AQMA) Graphical capture of network conditions in with and without scheme scenarios through movie files (eg reduced queues and delays) Quantitative Assessment: Percentage change in link flows to assist: Population experiencing noise or air quality changes (ie receptors within 300m) Links to detailed environmental emissions and dispersion modelling including : Noise mapping Pollutant concentrations (eg particulate matter and NO 2 ) Greenhouse gases (CO 2 ) Physical fitness / changes in number of journeys by foot or cycle (in excess of 30 min) Number of identified features (eg designated historic resources, landscape etc) impacted Qualitative Assessment: Overall context description of direct and indirect impact on environmental features and resources Numerical and visual appreciation of changes in Example : Plan of M6 Junction 6 showing changes in traffic flow between reference case and with journey ambience (eg traveller views / stress) scheme scenarios to assist identification of significant changes in link flow (+/- 25%)

12 Application to Major Schemes and Studies : The NATA / AST Framework Environment Safety Economy Quantified changes in: PRISM Outputs Traffic volumes (eg link flows) Mode (eg total number of vehicles) Vehicle composition (eg % HGVs) Vehicle speeds (eg stop / start conditions) Total vehicle mileage Contribution to Appraisal Quantitative Assessment: With and Without scheme traffic flows by link and junction type provide input to accident-only COBA analysis in order to place a monetary benefit on savings in personal injury accidents Qualitative Assessment: Descriptive assessment of changes in speed Estimation of number of scheme users benefiting from changes in security Accessibility Integration Example : Part of network in Coventry showing link flow by mode in order to understand changes in flow between reference case and with scheme scenarios for input to COBA

13 Application to Major Schemes and Studies : The NATA / AST Framework Environment Safety Economy Accessibility Integration Quantified changes in: PRISM Outputs Demand (eg modal shift to improved public transport services) Travel time (eg reductions due to decongestion benefits) Travel distance (eg reductions due to opening of shorter routes) Extracted as skimmed matrices in order to reflect changes in generalised cost between OD pairs for each user group, journey purpose, time period and year Traffic flows Vehicle speeds Queues and delays Vehicle composition Travel time Underlying population data Contribution to Appraisal Quantitative Assessment: Application of DfT TUBA cost benefit software to complete Transport Economic Efficiency (TEE) table (ie changes in journey time and vehicle operating characteristics, revenue etc) Calculation of wider economic accessibility indices to understand changes in accessibility between jobs and workforce (preparation of an Economic Impact Report) Qualitative Assessment: Descriptive assessment of changes in journey time reliability for public and private users Example : Creation of new matrices from an assigned network ( skimming demand, time and distance) for input to TUBA cost benefit analysis

14 Application to Major Schemes and Studies : The NATA / AST Framework Environment Safety Economy Accessibility Quantified changes in: PRISM Outputs Demand (eg desire lines) Traffic volumes (eg link flows) Mode (eg transfer to sustainable modes) Vehicle composition (eg % HGVs) Vehicle speeds (eg stop / start conditions) Underlying population data Descriptive changes through: Integration of modelling with supporting GIS-style database to permit graphical presentation of baseline and with scheme scenarios Contribution to Appraisal Quantitative Assessment: Forecast changes in modal split and residential population living within sphere of influence of the scheme with option values Qualitative Assessment: Estimation of changes in severance for the whole community by comparing traffic flows, speeds, composition and mode with ease of crossing at potential conflict sites / points of opportunity Graphical appreciation of changes in linkages between available transport modes and facilities Integration Potential to examine distribution and equity impacts (part of supporting analysis) to understand demographic changes in accessibility Example : Plan of Coventry using MapInfo to show potential catchment area of a public transport route linked to census data to identify resident population within 400 metres walk of stops

15 Application to Major Schemes and Studies : The NATA / AST Framework Environment Safety Economy Quantified changes in: PRISM Outputs Mode (eg transfer to sustainable modes) Interchange (eg boarding and alighting) Descriptive changes through: Integration of modelling with supporting GIS-style database to permit graphical presentation of baseline and with scheme scenarios (eg land use) Contribution to Appraisal Qualitative Assessment: Numerical and contextual appreciation of improvements in interchange facilities and their use Overall context description of direct and indirect impact on land use and other government policies Accessibility Integration Example : Plan of Birmingham City Centre showing rail passengers and their routes to / from the station (Moor Street) via other modes (red to rail, green to bus, brown to metro)

16 The Way Forward : Evolving Policy - The March 2004 Shared Priority Delivery Plan set out a platform to assist Local Authorities in delivering transport through four inter-related priorities : - Congestion Reducing traffic whilst making better use of existing infrastructure - Accessibility Improving transport to reduce traffic and encourage social inclusion - Safety Strategies to ensure that the transport system is safer for everyone - Air Quality Understanding how local pollution correlates with congestion and bus patronage in order to understand how improvement might solve air quality problems - This is further supported through the draft Full Guidance on LTPs 2nd Edition which builds upon four key themes for good local transport planning : - Placing transport in its wider context - Setting locally relevant targets - Delivering value for money - Performance monitoring

17 The Way Forward : Air Quality - The draft LTP2 guidance includes mandatory requirements to consider air quality indicators: - Air Quality Action Areas (95% transport related) - Review / assessment against objectives - Preparation of Management Plans and targets - PRISM can provide important inputs to assessing these indicators : (eg inputs to AAQuIRE dispersion modelling) - - Traffic flow Vehicle speeds Vehicle composition Modal split Total vehicle mileage Example : Plan showing air quality attributes as coloured isochrone contours The West Midlands PRISM team is already providing transport model outputs to assist Birmingham City Council s Air Quality team

18 The Way Forward : Accessibility - The draft LTP2 guidance includes mandatory requirements to consider accessibility indicators relating to: - Education and Work (eg Percentages of pupils / employees within specified travel time thresholds for public transport) - Healthcare and Shopping (eg Percentage of households without access to a car within specified travel time thresholds for public transport) -PRISM can provide important inputs to assessing these indicators : -Desire lines -Modal split -Underlying population and land use -Changes in travel time / speeds -Traffic flows / patronage -Links to MapInfo Example : Train travel time isochrones from Birmingham New Street Station