Estimation of turnover for VAT Groups as A Pre-condition for publishing Data from the BR

Transcription

1 Estimation of turnover for VA Groups as A Pre-condition for publishing Data from the BR 18 th International Roundtable on Business Survey Frames October 2004, Beijing Session 5 - BR Quality Indicators and Coverage Matthias Nahm Page 1

2 Agenda he current BR of Germany (BR 95) Drawing up VA Groups Definition Design and taxation Consequences from the design he Estimation Method Defining a basic ratio Choosing the best alternative Defining a basic formula Example of the basic formula Correction of the estimated results General results Interpretation of Data Enterprises and turnover in 2001 before and after estimation Results by amount of turnover in Page 2

3 Drawing up he current BR of Germany (BR 95) Implementation of E Regulation No. 2186/93 on Community coordination in drawing up business registers for statistical purposes by merging existing files of official statistics and... by using administrative files (from the tax authorities, the Federal Employment Agency, the Chambers of Crafts, the Federal Finance Office and the Chambers of Industry and Commerce). Conducting register surveys to improve quality. Further measures to improve quality like checking the relationship between units Page 3

4 Definition VA Groups (1) Consisting of a parent company and at least one subsidiary company. he subsidiary company is integrated in another legal unit. Different points of institutional views: ax legislation: he parent company and its subsidiary company are regarded as one legal unit. Official statistics: he parent company and its subsidiary company count as two legal units. Focus on parent companies and its subsidiary companies according to the VA legislation Page 4

5 Design and axation VA Groups (2) Parent company Subsidiary company 1 VA group Subsidiary company 2 axable turnover Non-taxable internal turnover Page 5

6 Design and axation VA Groups (2) Parent company 0 A 1 A Subsidiary company 1 VA group Subsidiary company 2 2 A 0 A 1 A 2 A A A axable turnover Non-taxable internal turnover Consolidated turnover of the examined parent company according to the tax authorities A Page 6

7 Consequences from the design VA Groups (3) he tax authorities deliver only one turnover value for the whole VA group in one record of the parent company: No information about subsidiary companies and their turnover No information about non-taxable internal turnover An estimation is required: Estimation of turnover for every parent company and every subsidiary company of a VA group Simulation of the non-taxable internal turnover No need for additional information to estimate turnover Page 7

8 Defining a basic ratio Estimation Method (1) Calculating sums of turnovers and of employees liable to pay social insurance contributions for units. For all units not belonging to VA groups. Calculating the ratio by depth of activity code and regional aspects in 6 alternatives: activity code location of unit In Germany In the federal states In old or new federal states section division SC Empl urnover per employees liable to pay social insurance contributions SC Empl according to one of the alternatives Page 8

9 Choosing the best alternative Estimation Method (2) Calculating the correlation coefficients of the ratio for the 6 alternatives and for every member of the VA group. Selection of the alternative with the highest correlation coefficient. Selection of the alternative with the second-best correlation coefficient, if the alternative with the highest correlation coefficient has not at least 30 units (and so on). Application of the best ratio to the relevant member of the VA group Page 9

10 Defining a basic formula Estimation Method (3) N SC Empl SC Empl N SC Empl SC Empl Estimated turnover of the examined unit (parent company or subsidiary company). Number of employees liable to pay social insurance contributions SC Empl of the unit. urnover per employee liable to pay social insurance contributions SC Empl by 6 alternatives Page 10

11 Example of the basic formula If... N SC Empl 1 SC Empl Estimation Method (4) N SC Empl SC Empl unit being a subsidiary company, 121 employees liable to pay social insurance contributions of the unit, alternative 1: units located in Germany by sections, of turnover in Germany of units in a specific section, employees liable to pay social insurance contributions in Germany of units in a specific section.... then of estimated turnover of the examined subsidiary company Page 11

12 Estimation Method (5) Correction of the estimation results Increasing if... A 0 A 1 ; 1 A IF 1 ; A 1 IF A Consolidated turnover of the examined parent company according to the tax authorities A. Sum of the turnover of the whole VA group according to estimation. Estimated turnover of the examined unit (parent company or subsidiary company) after increasing. Estimated turnover of the examined unit (parent company or subsidiary company). Increasing factor Page 12

13 Estimation Method (6) Correction of the estimation results Decreasing if... n A 1 1 n A DF 0 Sum of the turnover of the whole VA group according to estimation. Number of members of the VA group. na 1 ; na 1 ; Consolidated turnover of the examined parent company according to the tax authorities A. urnover of the examined unit (parent company or subsidiary company) after decreasing. n DF A Estimated turnover of the examined unit (parent company or subsidiary company). Decreasing factor Page 13

14 General results Estimation Method (7) Estimated turnover for subsidiary companies and parent companies. he consolidated turnover for parent companies delivered by the tax authorities gets a new role: Reference data for the estimation procedure. For publishing purposes: he estimated turnover of members of VA groups is on an equal footing with the turnover of legal units not belonging to VA groups. Simulation of the non-taxable internal turnover Page 14

15 Data interpretation (1) Enterprises and turnover in 2001 before and after estimation NACE sections 1) Enterprises urnover 2) urnover 3) Number Mill. ER C Mining and quarrying D Manufacturing E Electricity, gas and water supply F Construction G Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and personal and household goods H Hotels and restaurants I ransport, storage and communication J Financial intermediation K Real estate, renting and business activities M Education N Health and social work O Other community, social and personal service activities total ) NACE Rev.1.1-2) Without estimated turnover of parent companies and subsidiary companies 3) Including estimated turnover of parent companies and subsidiary companies Page 15

16 Data interpretation (2) Enterprises and turnover in 2001 before and after estimation C D E F G H I J K M N O Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas and water supply Construction Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and personal and household goods Hotels and restaurants ransport, storage and communication Financial intermediation Real estate, renting and business activities Education Health and social work Other community, social and personal service activities C D E F G H I J K M N O turnover 2001 in wihtout estimation turnover 2001 in with estimation Page 16

17 Data interpretation (3) Results by amount of turnover 2001 he estimation procedure changes turnover Reduction of turnover by under 50% in section K: Many holdings existing as parent companies in section K are associated with subsidiary companies belonging to other sections. Increase of turnover by between 45% and more than 60% especially in sections I, E and C: Parts of the turnover are redistributed from the parent companies in section K to existing subsidiary companies in these sections. he estimation method takes account of non-taxable internal turnover Slight increase of the overall turnover: Inclusion of internal turnover by simulating market prices for parent and subsidiary companies with internal taxation Page 17