LEEDS CITY REGION LABOUR MARKET ANALYSIS 2018: HEADLINE MESSAGES

Transcription

1 LEEDS CITY REGION LABOUR MARKET ANALYSIS 2018: HEADLINE MESSAGES

2 Outline of the presentation Background to the labour market analysis Selected key messages around: Economic and labour market context Raising the bar on higher level skills More and better apprenticeships Employability, accessing jobs and realising potential Great Education Connected to Businesses Building workforce skills and attracting talent Conclusions

3 Why do we analyse the labour market Support strategy and policy development, address market failure; measure progress against our priorities Demonstrate to sponsors the evidence base for our interventions Influence local learning provision in line with labour market demand Inform careers choice by providing information on labour market opportunities Inform action by local employers to address the skill needs of business.

4 Context

5 The City Region has seen a widening productivity gap with the UK average Figure: Nominal (smoothed) GVA per hour worked ( ) Productivity in the City Region is only 86% of UK average, as compared with 91% a decade previously UNITED KINGDOM less Extra-Regio Leeds City Region Source: ONS, Sub-regional Productivity

6 There is a strong correlation between skills and productivity performance at LEP level Figure: High level qualifications and productivity by LEP area % of working age population qualified level 4+ 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Leeds City Region West of England Buckinghamshire Thames Valley Cheshire and Warrington London Thames Valley Berkshire Greater Manchester Greater Birmingham and Solihull Sheffield City Region Liverpool City Region Tees Valley Black Country 10% 0% GVA per hour worked ( ) Source: Annual Population Survey; ONS LEP level estimates of productivity

7 23 per cent of jobs pay below the LWF Living Wage across the City Region Figure: % of employee jobs paying below the living wage (as defined by the LWF), 2017 Kirklees 31% Craven 28% Barnsley 26% Selby 26% Bradford Wakefield 25% 24% 2017 LWF Living Wage rate: 8.45 York 22% Calderdale 21% Harrogate 20% Leeds 19% Leeds City Region 23% Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2017 Note: Workplace-based

8 Likelihood of being paid LWF Living Wage varies markedly by employment status Figure: % of employee jobs paying below the living wage (as defined by the LWF) by status, LWF Living Wage hourly rate: All jobs Full-time Part-time Male full-time Female full-time Male part-time Female parttime Leeds City Region England Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2017 Note: Workplace-based

9 Skills deprivation is most prevalent in Barnsley, Bradford and Wakefield Figure: Proportion of neighbourhoods in 10% most deprived nationally by domain of deprivation 35% 30% 25% Leeds City Region is ranked fifth out of 39 LEP areas in terms of % of neighbourhoods that fall among most deprived nationally on education training and skills 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Overall deprivation Employment deprivation Income deprivation Education, training and skills deprivation Source: Department of Communities and Local Government, Index of Multiple Deprivation Note: The Education, Skills and Training Domain measures the lack of attainment and skills in the local population.

10 Pattern of skills deprivation at neighbourhood level is similar to overall pattern of deprivation Neighbourhoods falling into 10% most deprived nationally in City Region Overall deprivation Education, skills and training

11 RAISING THE BAR ON HIGHER LEVEL SKILLS

12 Latest figures for City Region show slight improvement in proportion qualified at higher level Figure: % of working age population qualified at tertiary level (level 4+), Leeds City Region 45% 40% 35% England 30% Leeds City Region 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: Annual Population Survey

13 Lower proportions of workers in high skilled occupations in important sectors helps to explain low levels of productivity in City Region Figure: Proportion of the sectoral workforce in higher skilled occupations 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Leeds City Region England Source: Annual Population Survey, workplace analysis, Jan Dec 2017 Note: Higher skilled occupations are SOC major groups 1-3; managers, professionals and associates professional / technical

14 Still more high skilled jobs than high qualified people Figure: Trends in high skilled people and high skilled employment, Leeds City Region 700, , , , , , ,000 - Economically active with NVQ4+ - aged Employed in SOC 1-3 jobs aged (workplace based) Source: Annual Population Survey

15 High skilled occupations still main source of employment growth with cumulative increase of 80,000 since recession Figure: Occupational contribution to cumulative employment growth, Leeds City Region 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 Recent periods show recovery in employment across all segments, including middle skilled occupations 40,000 20,000 0 Labour Service Middle High -20,000-40,000-60,000 Jan Dec 2009 Jan Dec 2010 Jan Dec 2011 Jan Dec 2012 Jan Dec 2013 Jan Dec 2014 Jan Dec 2015 Jan Dec 2016 Jan Dec 2017 Source: Annual Population Survey

16 Nonetheless many workers in medium / lower skilled roles are overqualified for their job Figure: Medium and lower-skilled occupations with the greatest proportion of workers qualified at level 4+; Yorkshire and the Humber Administrative occupations Customer service occupations Secretarial and related occupations Caring personal service occupations Skilled agricultural and related trades Sales occupations Leisure, travel and related personal service Skilled metal, electrical and electronic trades Process, plant and machine operatives Elementary administration and service occupations Transport and mobile machine drivers and 11% of workers in region are high qualified but employed in medium / lower skilled occupations Textiles, printing and other skilled trades Elementary trades and related occupations Skilled construction and building trades 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Source: Labour Force Survey, Oct Dec 2017

17 Disadvantaged pupils less likely to participate in higher education Figure: % of pupils entering higher education by free school meal status 50% 45% 40% 40% 42% 41% 39% 39% 44% 41% 45% 42% 47% 44% 41% 38% 35% 30% 25% 30% 26% 32% 30% 35% 29% 27% 27% 24% 20% 15% 14% 16% 17% 16% 10% 9% 5% 0% Barnsley Wakefield Leeds Bradford York Kirklees North Yorkshire Calderdale England FSM Non-FSM All Source: Department for Education

18 MORE AND BETTER APPRENTICESHIPS

19 Apprenticeship starts declined by 4 per cent in 2016/17 following two years of growth Figure: Trend in apprenticeship starts, Leeds City Region 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, / / / / / /17 Intermediate Advanced Higher Source: Education and Skills Funding Agency

20 Retail and Business admin saw biggest falls but construction and engineering also hit Figure: change in apprenticeship starts between 2015/16 and 2016/17 by sector subject area, Leeds City Region Agriculture, Horticulture and Animal Care Arts, Media and Publishing Business, Administration and Law Construction, Planning and the Built Environment Education and Training Construction starts fell by 21%, Engineering by 4%; but Health, public services and care grew by 12% Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies Health, Public Services and Care Information and Communication Technology Leisure, Travel and Tourism Retail and Commercial Enterprise Science and Mathematics Source: Education and Skills Funding Agency

21 Barnsley, Kirklees and York saw biggest falls in starts Figure: change in apprenticeship starts between 2015/16 and 2016/17 by district, Leeds City Region % 100 5% % -5% -10% -15% -500 Change (LH axis) % Change (RH axis) -20% Source: Education and Skills Funding Agency

22 Intermediate and young (<25 years) apprenticeship starts fell Figure: change in apprenticeship starts between 2015/16 and 2016/17 by type, Leeds City Region 1, ,000-1,500-2,000-2,500 Intermediate Advanced Higher Under Level Age Source: Education and Skills Funding Agency

23 Subject range of higher apprenticeships remains limited Figure: Higher apprenticeship starts by sector subject area, 2016/17, Leeds City Region 1,200 1, More than 90% of total starts in just two subject areas Source: Education and Skills Funding Agency Note: Figures rounded to nearest 10

24 Disadvantaged are less likely to participate Figure: % of pupils entering apprenticeships following completion of key stage 4 14% 13% 12% 10% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 5% 6% 4% 3% 2% 0% Barnsley Bradford Calderdale Kirklees Leeds North Yorkshire Disadvantaged pupils All other pupils Wakefield York England Source: Department for Education. 2014/15 destinations for the 2013/14 cohort (state-funded mainstream schools)

25 Apprenticeship achievement rates remain similar to national average but with variations between apprenticeship types Figure: Overall achievement rates by apprenticeship type, 2016/17 80% 70% 60% 50% 72% 68% 68% 69% 70% 70% 66% 67% 65% 67% 71% 69% 63% 62% 72% 69% 50% 75% 71% 68% 69% 66% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Overall Intermediate Advanced Higher General FE Other Public Funded Private Sector Public Funded Specialist college Age Level Type of provider Leeds City Region 2016/17 England Source: Education and Skills Funding Agency

26 EMPLOYABILITY, ACCESSING JOBS AND REALISING POTENTIAL

27 Strong decline in unemployed but little change in number of inactive people who want a job Figure: Trend in level of ILO unemployed and economically inactive who want a job, Leeds City Region 300, , , , ,000 50,000 - Jan 2004-Dec 2004 Jul 2004-Jun 2005 Jan 2005-Dec 2005 Jul 2005-Jun 2006 Jan 2006-Dec 2006 Jul 2006-Jun 2007 Jan 2007-Dec 2007 Jul 2007-Jun 2008 Jan 2008-Dec 2008 Jul 2008-Jun 2009 Jan 2009-Dec 2009 Jul 2009-Jun 2010 Jan 2010-Dec 2010 Jul 2010-Jun 2011 Jan 2011-Dec 2011 Jul 2011-Jun 2012 Jan 2012-Dec 2012 Jul 2012-Jun 2013 Jan 2013-Dec 2013 Jul 2013-Jun 2014 Jan 2014-Dec 2014 Jul 2014-Jun 2015 Jan 2015-Dec 2015 Jul 2015-Jun 2016 Jan 2016-Dec 2016 Jul 2016-Jun 2017 Jan 2017-Dec 2017 Economically inactive who want a job Unemployed Source: Annual Population Survey

28 Continued gap with national average with regard to % qualified below level 2 Figure: % of working age population qualified below Level 2, Leeds City Region 40% 35% 30% Leeds City Region 25% 20% England 15% 10% 5% Level 2 is regarded as qualification level for basic employability 0% Source: Annual Population Survey

29 Workers in low-skilled occupations are generally low paid Figure: Relationship between skill levels and pay for occupational groups % of workers qualified above level 2 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Caring personal service occupations Leisure, travel, personal service Secretarial and related occupations Sales occupations Elementary administration and service Skilled agricultural and related trades Elementary trades Customer service Administrative occupations Process, plant and machine operatives Transport and mobile machine drivers, operatives Source: Annual Population Survey, 2017; Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Pay data for Yorkshire and Humber Science, research, engineering and technology professionals Corporate managers and directors Key exception is care workers vast majority Bubble qualified size denotes at level level of 2+ employment but pay rate in is low occupation Gross median hourly pay ( )

30 A fifth of working households rely on Working Tax and Child Tax Credits Figure: Proportion of working households in receipt of Working Tax and Child Tax Credits 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 165,000 households in the City Region rely on working tax and child tax credits 0% 2011/ / / / (p) 2017 (p) Leeds City Region UK Source: HMRC: Child and Working Tax Credits statistics

31 The employment rate gap for disabled people is 27 points across the City Region Figure: Employment rate gap for disabled by district Selby Calderdale Barnsley Wakefield Bradford Kirklees Harrogate Leeds York Craven Leeds City Region 10% 27% 26% 22% 21% 20% 27% 37% 35% 35% 34% 52% 47% 45% 48% 46% 50% 52% 63% 58% 61% 65% 88% 82% 80% 82% 73% 76% 85% 80% 81% 75% 79% Employment rate aged EA core or work-limiting disabled Employment rate aged not EA core or work-limiting disabled Gap (percentage points) Source: Annual Population Survey 2017 Note: Residence-based

32 Whilst the employment rate gap for ethnic minorities is 15 points across the City Region Figure: Employment rate gap for ethnic minorities by district Kirklees Bradford Calderdale Wakefield Leeds York Harrogate -2% Barnsley -7% Leeds City Region 18% 17% 15% 13% 12% 12% 15% 56% 74% 56% 73% 61% 76% 61% 74% 66% 78% 66% 78% 84% 82% 71% 78% 60% 76% Aged employment rate - ethnic minority Aged employment rate - white Gap (percentage points) Source: Annual Population Survey, July 2016 June 2017 Note: Residence-based. Data not available for Craven and Selby.

33 GREAT EDUCATION CONNECTED TO BUSINESSES

34 Mismatches in profile of HE and local market demand Figure: Comparison of profile of HE achievements versus projected job openings in related occupations, Leeds City Region Medicine and subjects allied to medicine Agriculture & related subjects Computer science Science, engineering & technology Architecture, building & planning Social studies Law Business & administrative studies Mass communications & documentation Creative arts & design Education 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% % qualifiers % job openings Source: HESA achievements data for 2016/17; Working Futures

35 A minority of local employers engage with work experience and work inspiration opportunities Figure: % of local employers participating in work inspiration and work experience activities, Leeds City Region 50% 45% 43% 47% 40% 35% 36% 38% 39% 36% 38% 38% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 7% 10% 10% 12% 13% 8% 13% 10% 5% 0% Leeds City Region D2N2 North Eastern Greater Manchester West of England Greater Birmingham and Solihull Liverpool City Region England Work inspiration Work experience Source: Employer Perspectives Survey, 2016

36 BUILDING WORKFORCE SKILLS AND ATTRACTING TALENT

37 Strongest area of demand for digital occupations continues to be for developers Figure: Top 10 digital occupations with greatest number of online job postings Software Developer / Engineer Web Developer Computer Support Specialist Systems Analyst Software QA Engineer / Tester Total number of postings in 2017: 52,600 23% increase on 2016 in 2017 IT Project Manager Computer Systems Engineer / Architect Database Administrator Information Security Engineer / Analyst Computer Programmer 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Job Postings 2016 Job Postings 2017 Source: Labour Insight, job openings posted Jan Dec 2016, 2017 Note: Analysis limited to management, professional and associate professional occupations

38 Civil engineer most in-demand occupation in construction Figure: Top 10 construction occupations with greatest number of online job postings Civil Engineer Quantity surveyors Construction Manager Chartered architectural technologists and town planning technicians Architect Total number of postings in 2017: 12,500 25% increase on 2016 Engineering Manager CAD Designer / Draughtsperson/Draughtsman Land Surveyors Civil Engineering Technician ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Job Postings 2016 Job Postings 2017 Source: Labour Insight, job openings posted Jan Dec 2016, 2017 Note: Analysis limited to management, professional and associate professional occupations

39 Mechanical engineers most in-demand occupation Figure: Top 10 engineering / manufacturing occupations with greatest number of online job postings Mechanical Engineer Maintenance Technician Production Worker Electrical Engineer Validation Engineer Industrial Engineer Production Plant Manager Total number of postings in 2017: 23,900 24% increase on 2016 Product Development Engineer Quality Inspector / Technician Production Supervisor ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Job Postings 2016 Job Postings 2017 Source: Labour Insight, job openings posted Jan Dec 2016, 2017 Note: Analysis limited to management, professional and associate professional occupations

40 Some evidence that decline in job-related training activity has abated Figure: Proportion of workers receiving job-related training in previous 4 weeks 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% Jan 2004-Dec 2004 Jul 2004-Jun 2005 Jan 2005-Dec 2005 Jul 2005-Jun 2006 Jan 2006-Dec 2006 Jul 2006-Jun 2007 Jan 2007-Dec 2007 Jul 2007-Jun 2008 Jan 2008-Dec 2008 Jul 2008-Jun 2009 Jan 2009-Dec 2009 Jul 2009-Jun 2010 Jan 2010-Dec 2010 Jul 2010-Jun 2011 Jan 2011-Dec 2011 Jul 2011-Jun 2012 Jan 2012-Dec 2012 Jul 2012-Jun 2013 Jan 2013-Dec 2013 Jul 2013-Jun 2014 Jan 2014-Dec 2014 Jul 2014-Jun 2015 Jan 2015-Dec 2015 Jul 2015-Jun 2016 Jan 2016-Dec 2016 Jul 2016-Jun 2017 Jan 2017-Dec 2017 Leeds City Region England Source: Annual Population Survey

41 Participation in training remains uneven Figure: Proportion of workers receiving job-related training in previous 4 weeks All people in employment 13% Qualified at level 4+ 18% Qualified at level 3 and below 9% Employed full-time 13% Employed part-time 12% Employed in private services 9% Employed in production sector 10% Employed in public sector 22% Source: Annual Population Survey 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

42 Conclusions There is no sign that the productivity gap with the UK average is narrowing a weak skills base plays a key part in this deficit 2017 saw an improvement in the qualification profile of the City Region, with a narrowing of the gap with the national average Implementation of reforms has had a negative impact on level of take-up of apprenticeships but this impact has been uneven, with priority skill areas particularly affected Local labour market continues to perform strongly, with continued decline in number of jobless and demand for high level skills remaining strong Strong demand for high skilled workers in priority areas supports view that skill shortages persist in digital, engineering and construction There is some evidence that the long-term decline in job-related training has abated; however, access to training remains uneven with low-skilled workers less likely to benefit