2014 Development Charges Study

Transcription

1 Committee Membership 2014 Development Charges Study Consultation Committee Members Organization Representatives Member of Council (Chair) Councillor Paul Sharman Member of Council (Vice Chair) Councillor John Taylor Hamilton-Halton Home Builders Association (HHHBA) Michael Barton Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) Arden Semper Burlington Chamber of Commerce Keith Hoey Development Industry Representative Ron Young Citizen Tom Muir Citizen Nick Leblovic Citizen Frank McKeown Page 1 of 1

2 City of Burlington 2014 Development Charges Consultation Committee TERMS OF REFERENCE The Development Charges Consultation Committee is an advisory committee authorized by city council. The mandate of the committee is to advise and assist the city with respect to City Development Charges as follows: 1. Review the methodology and assumptions used in formulating Burlington s Development Charges and Policies 2. Provide input on recommendations dealing with the proposed development charge by-law and/or amendments. Composition The committee shall be comprised of members (up to 9) from the development industry, business sector, City of Burlington taxpayers and Council as follows: Members of Council (2) Hamilton-Halton Home Builders Association (1) Building Industry and Land Development Association or a similar development representative (1) Development Industry Representative (1) Burlington Chamber of Commerce (1) Citizens representative (up to 3) City staff will provide support to the committee from an administrative and technical perspective. Frequency of Meetings Committee meetings shall generally be scheduled based on the requirements of the Development Charge process. Quorum A quorum shall be a majority of the committee members. If the quorum for a committee meeting is not present within fifteen (15) minutes of the time fixed for the commencement of the meeting, the committee may proceed without a quorum being present but the report of the committee meeting shall clearly indicate thereon what parts of the meeting were conducted without a quorum present. Role of Chair and Vice Chair The Chair and Vice Chair shall be members of council. The Chair shall preside over the meetings and assist the committee in attempting to reach consensus on fundamental policy issues of concern. 1

3 City of Burlington 2014 Development Charges Consultation Committee TERMS OF REFERENCE The Chair shall act as spokesperson and coordinate the presentation of the Committee s position to Council. It shall be the duty of the Chair, with respect to all meetings, which he/she presides to: Preserve order and decide all questions of order Enforce the observance of order and decorum among the members Represent and support the Committee, declaring its will and implicitly obeying its decisions. The Vice-Chair shall assume the authority and perform all the duties of the Chair in the absence of the Chair. Sub-Committee The Committee may form sub-committees for the purpose of addressing specific technical issues relating to development charges. The Committee shall determine the number, frequency and membership of sub-committee(s) and shall review all information submitted by sub-committees. Sub-committees must report back to the Committee on all analysis, discussions and recommendations. Committee Records Staff will coordinate and retain committee records including agendas, minutes, and subcommittee reports. 2

4 Page 1 of Report F Finance Department TO: Budget and Corporate Services Committee SUBJECT: 2014 City of Burlington Development Charges Update Process Report Number: F File Number(s): Report Date: November 20, 2012 Ward(s) Affected: All Date to Committee: January 15, 2013 Date to Council: January 28, 2013 Recommendation: Approve the 2014 Development Charges Update process as outlined in Finance report F dated November 20, 2012; and Appoint Councillors and as the Chair and Vice Chair of the Development Charges Consultation Committee respectively; and Authorize the Manager of Purchasing to enter into direct negotiation with Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. and issue a purchase order based upon the outcome of the negotiation. Purpose: Address goal or action in strategic plan Establish new or revised policy or service standard Respond to legislation Respond to staff direction Address other area of responsibility The purpose of this report is to outline the process to update the City s current development charges (DC) by-law and related policies and to request approval to retain a consultant to assist City staff with the DC background study. Reference to Strategic Plan: Background: Vibrant Neighbourhoods Prosperity Excellence in Government N/A The Development Charges Act, 1997 (DCA) and associated regulations require that a Development Charges By-law expires five years after the day it comes into force, unless it specifies an earlier expiry date or is repealed sooner. The City of Burlington s current DC by-law (By-law ) will expire July 1, 2014; consequently, the new by-law must be enacted prior to this date.

5 Page 2 of Report F Discussion: Development Charges (DC) Update Process The Development Charges Act, 1997, details the rules to be followed when calculating development charges and prescribes the information to be contained in the required background study, including the timing of its availability to the general public as part of the process. Similar to the 2009 DC study process, the 2014 DC study process will be based on a comprehensive public consultative process, whereby a number of committees will be established. Staff recommend three committees/groups: staff working groups, strategy committee and a consultation committee. The roles and membership for each committee have been briefly highlighted below under the subsection Committees. Terms of Reference proposed for the DC Consultation Committee involving community stakeholders are attached to this report (Appendix A) for Committee s consideration. As in previous DC studies, community engagement of stakeholders and the public are proposed. Staff believe that the involvement of stakeholders early in the process will once again allow for early consultation and a narrowing of crucial issues when the final quantum and related DC policies are presented. In addition, the City, in accordance with the legislation, will be holding at least one public meeting (Budget & Corporate Services Committee) and ensure that adequate information is made available to the public in advance of the meeting. A draft schedule has been attached (Appendix B) for Committees information. Development Charges Act, 1997 (DCA) Development Charges are imposed by municipalities on development and redevelopment to fund the growth related capital costs. The Development Charges Act, 1997 legislates the process to be undertaken by municipalities in order to impose development charges. The calculation requirements are subject to DCA legislation and accompanying regulations. A simplified summary of the DC calculation methodology involves the following: A forecast of the amount, type and location of anticipated development Identification of servicing needs to accommodate anticipated growth Identification of capital costs to provide services to meet the needs Deductions, which include: - Grants, subsidies and other contributions - Benefit to existing development - Statutory 10% deduction for select services - Amounts in excess of average 10 year historic service levels - DC Reserve Fund balances (where applicable) Allocation of net costs between residential and non-residential growth

6 Page 3 of Report F The rationale for this methodology is that growth pays for growth. As part of the DC review process, staff will be reporting to committee with the 2014 DC Background Study and By-law in the spring of 2014, at which time details and further clarity on the outcome of the process will be provided. Committees The following Committees are proposed in order to carry out the update of the development charges study and by-law: 1. Working Groups: consisting of staff from various departments and external partners that prepare the analysis and recommend policies for development related services. 2. Strategy Committee: consisting of senior staff from various departments. The primary role of this committee is to provide strategic guidance and input/involvement early in the process as well to review the analysis and proposed policies. 3. Consultation Committee: consisting of representatives from stakeholder groups who will meet, where possible, after each critical step, with city staff providing a support/administrative role. Members of Council to be named and approved (2) Hamilton-Halton Home Builders Association (1) Building Industry and Land Development Association or a similar development representative (1) Development Industry Representative (1) Burlington Chamber of Commerce (1) Citizens (up to 3) Staff continue to support the membership of the DC Consultation Committee as highlighted above. Finance staff will be contacting the parties from the respective organizations as well as the citizens, who participated in prior DC studies, to determine if they would like to be representatives or if an advertisement for potential candidate selection is required. Staff proposed that the chair and vice chair of this committee be appointed by council as part of the approval of this report. Additional sub-committees to deal with technical issues may be required as part of the process. During the 2009 DC study, sub-committees were established to deal with technical aspects relating to storm drainage and transportation. This process proved to be extremely beneficial.

7 Page 4 of Report F Consulting Assistance Staff recommend single sourcing the consulting firm Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. (Watson & Associates) to provide professional financial advice and guidance during the 2014 DC update notwithstanding the City s normal requirement for a formal competitive bid process for projects valued over $20,000 (Procurement By-law , section 11). Retaining Watson & Associates will result in greater efficiencies and will be extremely beneficial to the city given their expertise in the field and their engagement with the city, Region of Halton and some of the area municipalities on their DC updates. They are quite familiar with matters in Burlington. Some of the projects the firm has been retained by the city include: the 2004 and 2009 DC updates, fiscal impact studies over the years for the City (i.e. Bronte Creek Business Park, Grindstone Settlement Area), Development Application Approval Process (DAAP) fees analysis and more recently the planning fees study. The city is extremely pleased with the financial and economic assistance provided. Watson & Associates were retained as the consultant for the Region of Halton, Milton and Oakville for their most recent DC update. Watson & Associates alliances, knowledge, base data and broad experience provide synergies and efficiencies which will be beneficial to the City of Burlington. As well, recognizing that the Region s DC By-law and policies have come forward in advance of the city, Watson & Associates are cognizant of the decisions and policies of the Region as the city moves forward with our policy decisions. Timetable Appendix B presents the steps inherent in the DC update process as well as the anticipated timing for completion. As seen from this table, there is a substantial amount of work to be completed in a limited time period. Other related studies/matters that will impact the DC review process include: 1. Places to Grow: Region of Halton s Best Planning Estimates The anticipated development in the City of Burlington over the 10 and 20 year planning horizon will be prepared based on the Halton Region Best Planning Estimates (BPE), updated in The Best Planning Estimates (BPE, 2011) was developed by Regional staff in consultation with staff from local municipalities based on various demographic models, using parameters derived from Statistics Canada Census data. The 2011 BPE population and employment forecast reflects the population and employment targets of the Provincial Growth Plan, Places to Grow and Regional Official Plan Amendments No. 38 and 39 (ROPA 38 & 39). The BPE form the basis of the growth projections for the DC background study and provide direction in determining the timely provision of both hard infrastructure (roads, storm drainage) and community infrastructure (parks, recreation centres, etc).

8 Page 5 of Report F Residential Greenfield Build-out As the city approaches residential greenfield build-out, growth will occur in the form of intensification. As the planning horizon for this DC review takes us to at least 2031, the implications of residential greenfield build-out must be considered. 3. Transportation Master Plan One significant component of the DC study is the Transportation Background Study (TBS) which will be prepared as part of an overall Transportation Master Plan. The TBS is a document that identifies transportation improvements for a long-term planning horizon and provides the basis for the transportation service component of the study, which historically represents 70-80% of the calculation. The TBS will support and build upon the city s Cycling Master Plan and Transit Resource Document and will be aligned with the Region of Halton s Transportation Master Plan. Included in the plan will be cost analysis, coordinated land use data, service level standards, etc. Transportation Services staff will be leading the Transportation Master Plan study scheduled to commence early in Halton Region 2012 Development Charges Update In 2012, Regional Council approved the 2012 Development Charges By-laws effective September 5, The Region of Halton s 2012 DC update includes a few policy initiatives that may influence the City s DC Update. These include the following: Commercial Expansion Exemption Demolition Credit Conversion Credit Residential Dwelling Categories Built/Greenfield Development Charges As Committee is aware, the Region of Halton s development charge by-laws are currently under appeal. Financial Matters: The funding for the costs associated with the update to the City s development charges (i.e. economic consultant and legal advice as required) was approved as part of the 2012 Capital Budget in the amount of $100,000. Environmental Matters: N/A

9 Page 6 of Report F Communication Matters: The City of Burlington will involve the public and development industry in the 2014 Development Charges Study process. As noted above, staff propose a comprehensive public consultative process with the involvement of key stakeholders in order to address crucial issues at early stages in the process. Conclusion: Staff are proceeding with the update to the City s development charges at this time and have provided Committee with a proposed process and timetable for approval. Respectfully submitted, Ann Marie Coulson Manager of Financial Planning and Taxation Ext Appendices: Appendix A 2014 Development Charges Update - Consultation Committee Terms of Reference Appendix B 2014 Development Charges Update - Proposed Work Plan Notifications: (after Council decision) Name Mailing or Address Approvals: *required Committee Disposition & Comments Council Disposition & Comments *Department City Treasurer General Manager City Manager To be completed by the Clerks Department 01-Approved 02-Not Approved 03-Amended 04-Referred 06-Received & Filed 07-Withdrawn 01-Approved 02-Not Approved 03-Amended 04-Referred 06-Received & Filed 07-Withdrawn

10 Appendix A To F City of Burlington 2014 Development Charges Consultation Committee TERMS OF REFERENCE The Development Charges Consultation Committee is an advisory committee authorized by city council. The mandate of the committee is to advise and assist the city with respect to City Development Charges as follows: 1. Review the methodology and assumptions used in formulating Burlington s Development Charges and Policies 2. Provide input on recommendations dealing with the proposed development charge by-law and/or amendments. Composition The committee shall be comprised of members (up to 9) from the development industry, business sector, City of Burlington taxpayers and Council as follows: Members of Council (2) Hamilton-Halton Home Builders Association (1) Building Industry and Land Development Association or a similar development representative (1) Development Industry Representative (1) Burlington Chamber of Commerce (1) Citizens representative (up to 3) City staff will provide support to the committee from an administrative and technical perspective. Frequency of Meetings Committee meetings shall generally be scheduled based on the requirements of the Development Charge process. Quorum A quorum shall be a majority of the committee members. If the quorum for a committee meeting is not present within fifteen (15) minutes of the time fixed for the commencement of the meeting, the committee may proceed without a quorum being present but the report of the committee meeting shall clearly indicate thereon what parts of the meeting were conducted without a quorum present. Role of Chair and Vice Chair The Chair and Vice Chair shall be members of council. The Chair shall preside over the meetings and assist the committee in attempting to reach consensus on fundamental policy issues of concern. 1

11 Appendix A To F City of Burlington 2014 Development Charges Consultation Committee TERMS OF REFERENCE The Chair shall act as spokesperson and coordinate the presentation of the Committee s position to Council. It shall be the duty of the Chair, with respect to all meetings, which he/she presides to: Preserve order and decide all questions of order Enforce the observance of order and decorum among the members Represent and support the Committee, declaring its will and implicitly obeying its decisions. The Vice-Chair shall assume the authority and perform all the duties of the Chair in the absence of the Chair. Sub-Committee The Committee may form sub-committees for the purpose of addressing specific technical issues relating to development charges. The Committee shall determine the number, frequency and membership of sub-committee(s) and shall review all information submitted by sub-committees. Sub-committees must report back to the Committee on all analysis, discussions and recommendations. Committee Records Staff will coordinate and retain committee records including agendas, minutes, and subcommittee reports. 2

12 City of Burlington Appendix B 2014 Development Charges Update To F Proposed Work Plan ACTIVITY OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APRIL Working Groups/ Strategy Committee/Consultation Committee Working E t bli Groups/ h R l Strategy / T Committee/Consultation f R f Committee E t bli h M b Growth Projections hi Levels of Service Development Charge Policies Capital Budget and Forecast Review Long Term Capital and Operating Cost Analysis Preparation of Background Study & By-law Proposed Study & By-law available for Council and Public (14 days prior to Committee Meeting) Notice of Public Meeting (20 days prior to Public Meeting) Public Meeting(s) Passage of the By-law

13 City of Burlington 2014 Development Charges Study Consultation Committee Meeting # 1: Development Charges Overview September 5, 2013

14 Overview Presentation Agenda Development Charge Requirements and Approach Draft Growth Projections 1

15 DEVELOPMENT CHARGE REQUIREMENTS AND APPROACH 2

16 DCA Requirements Purpose of DC is to impose charges against land to pay for increased capital costs required because of increased needs for services arising from development of the area Development Charges Act (DCA) prescribes the methodology that must be followed in determining the development charge 3

17 Development Charges Methodology 4

18 DCA Requirements The anticipated amount, type and location of development, for which development charges can be imposed, must be estimated The increase in the need for service attributable to the anticipated development must be estimated for each service to which the development charge by-law would relate The capital costs necessary to provide the increased services must be estimated Rules must be developed to determine if a development charge is payable in any particular case and to determine the amount of the charge 5

19 DCA Requirements If the rules expressly identify a type of development they must not provide for the type of development to pay development charges that exceed the capital costs that arise from the increase in the need for services attributable to the type of development Requirements specifically inform the approach relative to: DC spatial application (area specific vs. uniform) DC differentiation by type of development DC charging parameters (dwelling units vs. land area) 6

20 Area Specific vs. Uniform DCs Alternative Approach Considerations identifying major zones of cost variation within the municipality to more accurately attribute costs to urban and suburban development areas isolates development costs to a specific geographic location more accurately reflect specific servicing burdens -can be used to provide development incentives/ disincentives more contentious re benefiting areas, which may be subject to appeal may reduce flexibility to fund new works from a consolidated reserve fund may impose higher charges on new development areas, where older areas have benefitted from uniform charges Suggested Approach generally harder to administer Consideration of area-specific charges where demand for service clearly benefits the local area as identified in background studies/modeling Direction for consideration and services where appropriate (transportation, storm) 7

21 DCs Differentiated by Type Alternative Approach imposing DCs differentiated by type, reflective of the demands for service Considerations definition of types consistent with planning policies (e.g. retail vs. service commercial) consistency in development type definitions between anticipated development (e.g. NAICS) and increase in needs for service and capital costs (e.g. transportation modeling based on Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) manual) Suggested Approach attribution of capital costs by development type based on differentiated increase in need for services (e.g. trips, flows, etc.) current non-residential differentiation by type to be assessed through the review/consultation process Retail/Non-Retail 8

22 Land Area vs. Dwelling Unit DCs Alternative Approach Considerations imposing charges on land area basis to more accurately reflect urban form factors of density and lot size local service vs. offsite (DC-eligible) differences in demands for service comparison of development costs vs. municipal costs for traditional greenfield density compared with more dense greenfield development and urban redevelopment basis for the determination of the increase in need for service relative to anticipated development (e.g. population-based, catchment/land area) network infrastructure services (e.g. transportation, storm drainage, transit) redevelopment credits and consistency with increase in demands for service Suggested Approach potential appeal risks for the imposition of the different charge for the same occupancy and service demand maintain dwelling unit basis, unless increase in needs for network services are more closely aligned with land area 9

23 DRAFT GROWTH PROJECTIONS 10

24 Introduction DCA requires the anticipated amount, type and location of development, for which development charges can be imposed, must be estimated Region s Best Planning Estimates (BPE) provide the basis for the City s growth forecast to 2031 for future population, occupied dwelling units and employment 11

25 Growth Assumptions The DCA limits the DC calculation period to 10 years (i.e ) for services such as Parks, Recreation, Libraries, Transit and Associated Studies; The City s other services (i.e. Roads and Related, Storm Drainage, Fire and Associated Studies) can adopt a similar DC planning horizon or a longer one of appropriate length (e.g ); 12

26 How Growth Assumptions will be used in the DC Calculation /31 DEVELOPMENT FORECAST 1 CITY SERVICE STANDARDS 2 NEED FOR ADDITIONAL SERVICE 3 FINANCIAL AFFORDABILITY CONSIDERATIONS 5 LESS AVAILABLE CAPACITY 4 NET ADDITIONAL SERVICE REQUIREMENT 6 DCA DEDUCTIONS, BENEFIT TO EXISTING, ETC. 7 DC ELIGIBLE COSTS 8 OCCUPANCY OR OTHER USAGE FACTORS 9 ALLOCATED AGAINST RESIDENTIAL & ICI USES 10 AREA SPECIFICS, EXEMPTIONS, DISCOUNTS, PHASING IN BURLINGTON S DC SCHEDULE 12

27 Housing Units Draft Growth Forecast Housing Unit Growth 10 years growth of 5,805 housing units 18 years growth of 9,795 housing units The number of new units is expected to steadily decrease, as available urban land supply diminishes ( units/yr. vs ,160 units/yr.) 1,600 1,400 eggs 1,486 1,295 1,461 1,339 FIGURE HOUSING FORECAST¹ Housing Activity by Type 1,200 1,000 1, , , Low-Density 42% Medium- Density 28% 0 14 Years Historical Low Density Medium Density High Density Historical Average High-Density 30%

28 Draft Growth Forecast Housing Unit Growth (cont d) High density as a percentage of total is expected to steadily increase, as low density development decreases Forecast Period Low-Density Medium- Density High-Density Total % 21% 60% 100% % 12% 76% 100% % 11% 85% 100% % 11% 85% 100% The following map summarizes the location of the anticipated development by: Residential Intensification Area; and Unserviced Lands within the Designated Greenfield Area 15

29 Draft Growth Forecast 16

30 Draft Growth Forecast Population Growth 17 Housing growth is translated into population growth by estimating the population of the new units using average occupancies from 2006 Census data 3.28 for low density (single and semi-detached) 2.35 for medium density (townhouse and apartments in duplexes) 1.46 for high density (apartments) The second factor in calculating population growth is the estimated population loss from existing units due to the aging of the population (i.e. 10,536 persons over period) This methodology produces a net increase in population of 7,756 persons over the forecast period

31 Draft Growth Forecast Population Growth The City s forecast population growth over the forecast period represents 4%of the Region s forecast growth, a decline from 20% over the prior 10-year period 18

32 Draft Growth Forecast Employment Growth The employment forecast is largely based on the activity rate method, which is defined as the number of jobs in a municipality divided by the number of residents Employment sectors include primary, industrial, commercial retail, commercial non-retail, institutional, and work at home The Region s BPE also include No Fixed Place of Work (NFPOW), defined as, "persons who do not go from home to the same work place location at the beginning of each shift. These employees are not included in Statcan employment data by usual place of work data because they represent a labour force statistic 19

33 Draft Growth Forecast Employment Growth 20 Total employment is anticipated to reach approximately 103,075 by 2023 and 105,350 by This represents an employment increase of 8,179 for the 10-year period, and 10,454 for the 18-year forecast period The impact on municipal services from work at home employees has already been included in the population forecast. The impacts on municipal services regarding NFPOW employees are less clear, given the transient nature of these employees. Furthermore, since these employees have no fixed work address, they cannot be captured in the non-residential gross floor area (GFA) calculation. Accordingly, work at home and NFPOW employees have been removed from the DC calculation

34 Draft Growth Forecast Employment Growth Total employment for the City of Burlington (excluding work at home and NFPOW employment) is anticipated to reach approximately 87,745 by This represents an employment increase of approximately 9,090 during the 18-year forecast period The City s forecast employment growth over the forecast period represents 10% of the Region s forecast growth, a decline from 22% over the prior 10-year period 21

35 Draft Growth Forecast Non-Residential Gross Floor Area (GFA) Increase These increases in employment are expected to translate into commensurate increases in ICI Gross Floor Area, based on an average: 800 sq.ft./employee for industrial space; 540 sq.ft./employee for commercial retail space; 350 sq.ft./employee for commercial non-retail space; and 400 sq.ft. per employee for institutional space. This results in City-wide incremental GFA of 4.0 million sq.ft. over the 10-year forecast period, and 5.3 million sq.ft. over the 18-year forecast period 22

36 Draft Growth Forecast Non-Residential Gross Floor Area (GFA) Increase The GFA forecast over the period by sector is broken down as follows: Industrial - 44%; Commercial/Population Related - 44%; and Institutional - 12% 23

37 DC Growth Forecast Initial draft DC growth forecast summarized as follows: Population Residential Dwelling Units Non-Residential Employment Retail Non-Retail WAH and NFPOW Total ,413 70,780 31,002 47,653 16,241 94,896 Non-Res. Gross Floor Area (sq.ft.) ,169 80,575 34,243 53,501 17, , ,756 9,795 3,242 5,848 1,364 10,454 5,253,500 Detailed growth forecast tables provided in a separate handout 24

38 A-1 SCHEDULE 1 CITY OF BURLINGTON RESIDENTIAL GROWTH FORECAST SUMMARY Year Population Institutional Population Low-Density Medium-Density High-Density Singles & Semi- Detached Multiple Dwellings ¹ Apartments ² Other 3 Total Households Person Per Unit (PPU) Mid ,779 2, ,490 39,185 13,710 15, , Mid ,413 2, ,913 39,618 14,016 17, , Mid ,194 3, ,194 40,310 14,993 21, , Mid ,169 3, ,469 40,464 15,427 24, , Mid Mid , , , ,000 Mid Mid , , , ,805 Mid Mid ,756 1,200 6, ,411 7, ,795 Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., population and housing by structure type based on Halton Best Planning Estimates, June Mid 2011 Population based on Statistics Canada Census. 1. Includes townhomes and apartments in duplexes. 2. Includes bachelor, 1 bedroom and 2 bedroom+ apartments. Population (Excluding Institutional Population) Households 3. Other households defined by Statistics Canada as a single dwelling that is attached to another building and that does not fall into any of the other categories, such as a single dwelling attached to a non-residential structure (e.g., a store or a church) or occasionally to another residential structure (e.g., an apartment building). Other households also includes mobile homes and other movable dwellings. 1,600 FIGURE A HOUSING FORECAST¹ 1,486 1,461 1,400 1,295 1,339 1,200 1,184 1,137 1,139 ing Units 1, Hous Years Historical Low Density Medium Density High Density Historical Average Source: Historical housing activity ( ) based on Statistics Canada building permits, Catalogue XIB 1. Annual housing growth Forecast represents start year. 2. Forecast housing units by structure type derived from June 2011, Halton Region Best Planning Estimates. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 8/8/2013 H:\BURLINGTON\2013 DC\Growth\ Growth Model Burlington Aug 8

39 A-2 SCHEDULE 2 CITY OF BURLINGTON CURRENT YEAR GROWTH FORECAST MID 2011 TO MID 2013 POPULATION Mid 2011 Population (1) 173,490 Occupants of Units (2) 2,000 New Housing Units, multiplied by persons per unit (3) 1.99 Mid 2011 to Mid 2013 gross population increase 3,979 3,979 Decline in Housing Units (4) 68,780 Unit Occupancy, multiplied by ppu decline rate (5) Mid 2011 to Mid 2013 total decline in population -1,556-1,556 Population Estimate to Mid 2013 (6) 175,913 Net Population Increase, Mid 2011 to Mid ,423 (1) 2011 population based on StatsCan Census less an approximate 2,290 person institutional population and unadjusted for Census Undercount. (2) Estimated residential units constructed, Mid 2011 to the beginning of the growth period, assuming a six month lag between construction and occupancy. (3) Average number of persons per unit (ppu) is assumed to be: Persons % Distribution Weighted Persons Structural Type Per Unit¹ of Estimated Units² Per Unit Average Singles & Semi Detached % 0.71 Multiples (7) % 0.36 Apartments (8) % 0.92 Total 100% 1.99 ¹ Based on 2006 Census custom database ² Based on Building permit/completion activity (4) 2011 households based on StatsCan Census. (5) PPU decline occurs due to aging of the population and family life cycle changes, lower fertility rates and changing economic conditions. PPU decline rate derived from the June 2011, Halton Region Best Planning Estimates. (6) 2013 population excludes institutional population (7) Includes townhomes and apartments in duplexes. (8) Includes bachelor, 1 bedroom and 2 bedroom+ apartments. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 8/8/2013 H:\BURLINGTON\2013 DC\Growth\ Growth Model Burlington Aug 8

40 A-3 SCHEDULE 3 CITY OF BURLINGTON TEN YEAR GROWTH FORECAST MID 2013 TO MID 2023 POPULATION Mid 2013 Population (1) 175,913 Occupants of Units (2) 5,805 New Housing Units, multiplied by persons per unit (3) 1.83 Mid 2013 to Mid 2023 gross population increase 10,602 10,602 Decline in Housing Units (4) 70,780 Unit Occupancy, multiplied by ppu decline rate (5) Mid 2013 to Mid 2023 total decline in population -6,321-6,321 Population Estimate to Mid 2023 (6) 180,194 Net Population Increase, Mid 2013 to Mid ,281 (1) Mid 2013 Population (1) based on: 2011 Population, less estimated institutional population (173,490) + Mid 2011 to Mid 2013 estimated housing units to beginning of forecast period (2,000 x 1.99 = 3,979) + (68,780 x = -1,556) = 175,913 (2) Based upon forecast building permits/completions assuming a lag between construction and occupancy. (3) Average number of persons per unit (ppu) is assumed to be: Persons % Distribution Weighted Persons Structural Type Per Unit¹ of Estimated Units² Per Unit Average Singles & Semi Detached % 0.39 Multiples (7) % 0.40 Apartments (8) % 1.04 one bedroom or less 1.21 two bedrooms or more 1.63 Total 100% 1.83 ¹ Persons per unit based on adjusted Statistics Canada Custom 2006 Census database. ² Forecast unit mix based upon June 2011, Halton Region Best Planning Estimates. (4) Mid 2013 households based upon 68,780 (2011 Census) + 2,000 (Mid 2011 to Mid 2013 unit estimate) = 70,780 (5) PPU decline occurs due to aging of the population and family life cycle changes, lower fertility rates and changing economic conditions. PPU decline rate derived from the June 2011, Halton Region Best Planning Estimates. (6) Mid 2023 population excludes institutional population (7) Includes townhomes and apartments in duplexes. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 8/8/2013 H:\BURLINGTON\2013 DC\Growth\ Growth Model Burlington Aug 8

41 A-4 SCHEDULE 4 CITY OF BURLINGTON TEN YEAR GROWTH FORECAST MID 2013 TO MID 2031 POPULATION Mid 2013 Population (1) 175,913 Occupants of Units (2) 9,795 New Housing Units, multiplied by persons per unit (3) 1.74 Mid 2013 to Mid 2023 gross population increase 17,092 17,092 Decline in Housing Units (4) 70,780 Unit Occupancy, multiplied by ppu decline rate (5) Mid 2013 to Mid 2023 total decline in population -10,536-10,536 Population Estimate to ,469 Net Population Increase, Population Estimate to ,556 (1) Mid 2013 Population (1) based on: 2011 Population, less estimated institutional population (173,490) + Mid 2011 to Mid 2013 estimated housing units to beginning of forecast period (2,000 x 1.99 = 3,979) + (68,780 x = -1,556) = 175,913 (2) Based upon forecast building permits/completions assuming a lag between construction and occupancy. (3) Average number of persons per unit (ppu) is assumed to be: Persons % Distribution Weighted Persons Structural Type Per Unit¹ of Estimated Units² Per Unit Average Singles & Semi Detached % 0.28 Multiples (6) % 0.34 Apartments (7) % 1.12 one bedroom or less 1.21 two bedrooms or more 1.63 Total 100% 1.74 ¹ Persons per unit based on adjusted Statistics Canada Custom 2006 Census database. ² Forecast unit mix based upon June 2011, Halton Region Best Planning Estimates. (4) Mid 2013 households based upon 68,780 (2011 Census) + 2,000 (Mid 2011 to Mid 2013 unit estimate) = 70,780 (5) Decline occurs due to aging of the population and family life cycle changes, lower fertility rates and changing economic conditions. (6) Includes townhomes and apartments in duplexes. (7) Includes bachelor, 1 bedroom and 2 bedroom+ apartments. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 8/8/2013 H:\BURLINGTON\2013 DC\Growth\ Growth Model Burlington Aug 8

42 A-5 SCHEDULE 5 CITY OF BURLINGTON HISTORICAL RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS YEARS RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS Year Singles & Semi Detached Multiples 1 Apartments 2 Total , , , , , Sub-total 2,840 2,505 1,072 6,417 Average ( ) ,283 % Breakdown 44.3% 39.0% 16.7% 100.0% , , , Sub-total 2,433 1,088 2,776 6,297 Average ( ) ,050 % Breakdown 38.6% 17.3% 44.1% 100.0% Total 5,273 3,593 3,848 12,714 Average ,271 % Breakdown 41.5% 28.3% 30.3% 100.0% Sources: Building Permits - Statistics Canada Publication, XIB 1. Includes townhomes and apartments in duplexes. 2. Includes bachelor, 1 bedroom and 2 bedroom+ apartments. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 8/8/2013 H:\BURLINGTON\2013 DC\Growth\ Growth Model Burlington Aug 8

43 A-6 SCHEDULE 6 CITY OF BURLINGTON PERSONS PER UNIT BY AGE AND TYPE OF DWELLING (2006 CENSUS) Age of SINGLES AND SEMI-DETACHED Dwelling < 1 BR 1 BR 2 BR 3/4 BR 5+ BR Total Adjusted PPU¹ 20 Year Average Total Age of MULTIPLES 2 Dwelling < 1 BR 1 BR 2 BR 3/4 BR 5+ BR Total Adjusted PPU¹ 20 Year Average Total Age of APARTMENTS 3 Dwelling < 1 BR 1 BR 2 BR 3/4 BR 5+ BR Total Adjusted PPU¹ 20 Year Average Total Age of ALL DENSITY TYPES Dwelling < 1 BR 1 BR 2 BR 3/4 BR 5+ BR Total Total The Census PPU has been adjusted to account for the downward PPU trend which has been recently experienced in both new and older units, largely due to the aging of the population 2. Includes townhomes and apartments in duplexes. 3. Includes bachelor, 1 bedroom and 2 bedroom+ apartments. Note: Does not include Statistics Canada data classified as 'Other' PPU Not calculated for samples less than or equal to 50 dwelling units, and does not include institutional population Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 8/8/2013 H:\BURLINGTON\2013 DC\Growth\ Growth Model Burlington Aug 8

44 A-7 SCHEDULE 7 CITY OF BURLINGTON PERSONS PER UNIT BY STRUCTURAL TYPE AND AGE OF DWELLING (2006 CENSUS) Persons Per Dwelling Age of Dwelling Singles and Semi-Detached Multiples Apartments Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 8/8/2013 H:\BURLINGTON\2013 DC\Growth\ Growth Model Burlington Aug 8

45 A-8 SCHEDULE 8 CITY OF BURLINGTON EMPLOYMENT FORECAST, 2013 TO 2031 Activity Rate Employment Employment Period Population Primary Work at Home Commercial Commercial Commercial Commercial Total with Work at Industrial Institutional Total NFPOW Primary Industrial Institutional NFPOW ¹ (Retail) (Non-Retail) NFPOW Home (Retail) (Non-Retail) Total with NFPOW and Work at Home Total (Excluding NFPOW and Work at Home) , ,810 25,470 27,435 7,385 12,380 7,989 87,854 73, , ,280 24,355 29,921 8,084 13,645 8,370 92,055 76,405 Mid , ,396 24,505 31,002 8,403 14,345 8,845 94,896 78,655 Mid , ,935 25,955 33,508 9,197 15,695 9, ,835 84,755 Mid , ,105 26,555 33,731 9,274 15,795 9, ,075 85,755 Mid , ,325 27,400 34,243 9,757 15,945 9, ,350 87,745 Incremental Change , , ,841 2,250 Mid Mid , ,050 2, , ,179 7,100 Mid Mid , ,895 3,242 1,353 1, ,454 9,090 Annual Average , ,421 1,125 Mid Mid Mid Mid Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., Employment forecast and corresponding employment activty rate forecast by sector derived from Halton Best Planning Estimates, June Mid 2011 and Mid 2013 employment base by sector derived by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 1. Statistics Canada defines no fixed place of work (NFPOW) employees as "persons who do not go from home to the same work place location at the beginning of each shift". Such persons include building and landscape contractors, travelling salespersons, independent truck drivers, etc. FIGURE A 2 6, EMPLOYMENT FORECAST¹ 4,201 5,355 5,000 4,425 4,000 3,000 2,310 2,000 # of Employees 1,205 1, ,000 2, Years Industrial/Primary Commercial/Retail Institutional WAH/ NFPOW Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 8/8/2013 H:\BURLINGTON\2013 DC\Growth\ Growth Model Burlington Aug 8

46 A-9 SCHEDULE 9 CITY OF BURLINGTON EMPLOYMENT FORECAST (EXCLUDING WORK AT HOME AND NO FIXED PLACE OF WORK EMPLOYMENT), 2013 TO 2031 Employment Gross Floor Area in Square Feet (Estimated)¹ Period Population Commercial Commercial Primary Industrial Institutional Total (Retail) (Non-Retail) Commercial/ (Retail) Commercial (Non-Retail) Industrial Institutional Total , ,633 24,225 6,048 10,230 64, , ,470 27,435 7,385 12,380 73, , ,355 29,921 8,084 13,645 76,405 Mid , ,505 31,002 8,403 14,345 78,655 19,604,000 16,761,307 2,941,193 5,738,000 64,747,000 Mid , ,555 33,731 9,274 15,795 85,755 21,244,000 18,256,509 3,245,991 6,318,000 70,567,000 Mid , ,400 34,243 9,757 15,945 87,745 21,920,000 18,571,498 3,428,502 6,378,000 72,298,000 Incremental Change , , ,250 Mid Mid , ,050 2, ,450 7,100 1,640,000 1,495, , ,000 4,020,000 Mid Mid , ,895 3,242 1,353 1,600 9,090 2,316,000 1,810, , ,000 5,253,500 Annual Average , ,125 Mid Mid , ,520 30,480 58, ,000 Mid Mid , ,566 27,073 35, ,861 Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., population and housing by structure type based on Halton Best Planning Estimates, June Mid 2011 Population based on Statistics Canada Census. 1. Square Foot Per Employee Assumptions Industrial 800 Commercial/ Population Related 500 Commercial (Retail) 541 Commercial (Non-Retail) 350 Institutional 400 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 8/8/2013 H:\BURLINGTON\2013 DC\Growth\ Growth Model Burlington Aug 8