Simulation Analysis of Coal Mine Safety Management Based on System Dynamics

Transcription

1 Available online at Energy Procedia 5 (2011) IACEED2010 Simulation Analysis of Coal Mine Safety Management Based on System Dynamics He Gang * College of Economics and Management, Anhui University of Science and Techonology, Huainan City, Anhui Province, People s Republic of China, Abstract Coal mine safety management is a complicated dynamic system, for its influencing factors are very complex. By adopting system dynamics (SD) theory and methods, a dynamic simulation of those factors is made to analyze their respective influence upon the coal mine safety management, thus working out their respective actual effect in this complex safety management system, which will be conducive for coal mine enterprises and relevant government departments to taking effective safety measures and meanwhile add a new dimension to coal mine safety management and policy-making Published by Elsevier Ltd. Open access under CC BY-NC-ND license. Selection andpeer-review underresponsibility of RIUDS Keywords: system dynamics; safety management; influencing factors; simulation analysis 1. Instruction Safety management refers to a wide range of activities made by managers for production safety including planning, organization, directing, coordination and control to ensure the employees health and safety in the production process, to protect the state and collective property, to improve the economic efficiency of enterprises and to guarantee the smooth implementation and development of construction projects. The author, in preparing his PhD dissertation, has made case studies of 300 typical coal mine accidents since 2000 and found that there are 237 management-deficiency related accidents and in other words 79% of the coal mine accidents are related with management problems. Thus, it is evident that management is a crucial factor to determine the coal mine system safety and the coal mine safety management directly defines the safety performance of coal mine enterprises. Coal mining is a multi- *Corresponding author. T el.: ;. address:hgang0111@163.com Published by Elsevier Ltd. doi: /j.egypro Open access under CC BY-NC-ND license.

2 He Gang / Energy Procedia 5 (2011) process, multi-link integrated industry. Coal mine safety management involves many factors, which interact with each other and with the whole system; meanwhile the whole system also interacts with the environment, thus forming a typical multi-variable, high-order, nonlinear complex dynamic feedback system. Therefore, to correctly grasp the safety development trend needs systematic and dynamic analytical thoughts[1].given all this, the author constructs the safety management impact factor SD pattern by analyzing the coal mine safety management system from the prospective of System Dynamics, and makes dynamic assessment and quantitative forecast of the safety management performance by utilizing the simulation software-vensim and meanwhile gets the actual effect of different impact factors upon the safety management performance in the whole safety management system based on the simulation result, and contrasts the effect of different management plans on the coal mine safety management performance, hence providing scientific evidences for the government and coal mine enterprises in their policy-making process. 2. SD model of safety management system 2.1 The impact factors and the set of variables The main impact factors of coalmine safety management includes management mechanism, HRM(human resources management), safety culture, safety evaluation, management information system, labor organization management, safety training, hazard source management and equipment management, and they interact with each other and meanwhile they are also influenced by such external factors as equipments and facilities, safety technology, law supervision and people s behaviors, which also show the complexity and nonlinearity of coal mine safety management system. In order to construct the SD flow diagram and model, we select the key variables in the coal mine safety management system as follows: system safety management (SSM), safety culture(sc), safety evaluation(se), equipment management(em), hazard source management(hsm), HRM, safety education training(set) and information management system(ims); therefore, we build the following set of variables: the set of system safety management level (SSML), safety culture Level(SCL), safety evaluation Level(SEL), equipment management level(eml), hazard source management level (HSML), HRM level (HRML), safety education training level(setl) and information management system level (IMSL); the set of system safety management level increment(ssmli), safety culture level increment(scli), safety evaluation level increment (SELI), equipment management level increment (EMLI), hazard source management level increment (HSMLI), HRM level increment (HRMLI), safety education training level increment (SETLI) and information management system level increment (IMSLI). In addition, we also set up some constants according to the relevant impact factors. such as the influence coefficient of safety technology on equipment management(icstem), the influence coefficient of equipments and facilities on equipment management(icefem), the influence coefficient of management mechanis m on HRM(ICMMHRM), the influence coefficient of management mechanis m on equipment management(icmmem), the influence coefficient of management mechanism on labour organization management(icmmlom), the influence coefficient of safety culture on safety evaluation(icscse), the influence coefficient of management information system on safety evaluation(icmisse), the influence coefficient of human resources management on safety education training(ichrmset). Meanwhile, other constants like equip ments and facilit ies level, safety technology level, people s behaviour level, safety investment quota and law supervision level are also taken into consideration. 2.2 SD equations

3 272 He Gang / Energy Procedia 5 (2011) Establish the following SD equations according to the SD theory and the defined system set: SCL.K= SCL.J+DT SCLI//...equation SEL.K=(SEL.J + DT SELI) ICMISSE ICSCSE//...equation EML.K=(EM L.J+DT EM LI) ICEFEM ICSTEM ICMMEM ICLOM EM//...equation HSML.K=HSM L.J+DT HSM LI//...equation HRML.K=(HRML.J+DT HRMLI) ICMMHRM//...equation SETL.K=(SETLK.J+DT SETLI) ICPBSET ICHRMSET//...equation MISL.K=MISL.J+DT MISLI//...equation In the above equations, K means the present time, J refers to the past time, JK signifies the time interval from the past to the present; DT means the simulation time length variable, namely the length of time interval fro m J mo ment to K mo ment [2-3].Then the overall coal mine safety management =(SCL SC constituent weight +SEL SE constituent weight+ EML EM constituent weight +HSML HSM constituent weight+ HRML HRM constituent weight+ SETL SET constituent weight+ MISL MIS constituent weight) ICLSSML 3. SD simulation and its result analysis 3.1 Simulation Model Parameters and SD Flow Diagram In the coal mine safety management SD model, the parameters are set according to the investigated data from Huainan Mining Group and meanwhile the experts opinions about the coal mine safety management performance are also taken into consideration. By the level analysis method, the relative pair importance among every two factors is compared to get their respective constituent weight on the system safety management, that is, (the constituent weight of SCL on SML, the constituent weight of SEL on SML, the constituent weight of EML on SML, the constituent weight of HSML on SML, the constituent weight of HRML on SML, the constituent weight of SEL on SML, the constituent weight of MISL on SML ) = 0.10, 0.06, 0.20, 0.13, 0.20, 0.25, Under some given circumstances, the bigger the weight is, it indicates the change of this factor has more influence on the system[4-5]. Fig1 Safety Management SD Simulation Flow Diagram A comprehensive evaluation of the selected case coal mines is made to determine the initial value in the simulation model and the influence coefficient among the factors, the safety level initial value of the constant factor: (SCL, SEL, EML, HSML, HRML, SETL, MISL) =(75, 75, 70, 75, 75, 70, 73). This number is a dimensionless one, the bigger the number is, the higher the level is; the influence coefficient:

4 He Gang / Energy Procedia 5 (2011) (ICLSSM, ICPBSET, ICSTEM, ICSTEM, ICEFEM, ICMMEM, ICLOMEM, ICMMHRM, ICSCSE, ICMISE, ICHRMSET) = 1.16, 1.20, 1.10, 1.18, 1.12, 1.20, 1.05, 1.05, 1.10, The simulation step length DT is one month, and the coal mine safety management level target is set at 90.By Utilizing the SD simulation software Vensim-PLE, establishing the coal mine safety SD Flow Diagram (fig1), typing in the parameters variab les, we make a 36-month systematic simulation analysis of safety management factors which influence coalmine production. 3.2 analog simulation and contrastive analysis According to the initial value of variables in the case coal mine safety management system and its safety level, the increase rate of each factor s initial value in the system is set at 0.04 (dimensionless), which is determined on the basis of adapting the development trend of the system safety management to the coal mine realities and after repeated adjustments. In the same way, to guarantee the system safety management to have a sharp contrast in different adjustment amplitudes and to be in accordance with the coalmine realities, the adjustment increase rate in the simulation is set at 0.02 to contrast and analyze the system changes before and after the changes of adjustment variables. 1) The simulation under the situation in which the increase rate of each factor is at 0.04 (initial value). According to the set variables and the SD flow diagram in Fig 1, the development trend and data flow diagram of the safety management level of each factor can be figured out. In the set initial conditions, the safety management performance of the case coal mine reaches the target value 90 in 34 months. Therefore, improving the coalmine safety management requires long-term investment. Meanwhile the performance and development trend of each impact factor in the system can also be observed. 2) By regulating the increment of each factor, their actual working rate can be figured out. The actual working rate refers to the monthly average increased percentage of the overall safety management performance when the increase rate of certain factor is increased a certain value while the increase rate of other factors remains unchanged. In this simulation, when the increase rate of each factor is adjusted to 0.06 by turn while the increase rate of other factors remains unchanged, the overall safety management performance of various plans is worked out (Fig 2). Current 1 means the safety management performance when the increase rate of each factor is at 0.04.Creent2, Currentt3, Currentt4, Current5, Current 6, Current7 and Current8 means the overall safety management performance when SC, SE, EM, HSM, HRM, SET and MIS is respectively adjusted to 0.06 while the increase rate of others remains unchanged. Fig2 : Safety Management Level Simulation under Different Adjustment Plans

5 274 He Gang / Energy Procedia 5 (2011) According to Fig2 and the data from the simulation and with Current 1 as the reference, the average value of safety management performance is ; If the monthly level value of Current 1 is subtracted from the monthly level value of Current2, the average value is and then divide this number by the level average value , the ratio is , that is, the actual working rate of safety culture on the coalmine safety management. This number means when the increase rate of other factors remains unchanged, if the increase rate of safety culture is increased by 0.02, the safety management level value can be increased by 0.575% in a monthly average. Likewise, the actual working rate of other factors can also be figured out. The actual working rate of safety culture, safety evaluation, equipment management, hazard source management, human resource management, safety education training, management information system is respectively , , , , , , Therefore it is evident that the actual working rate can more accurately reflect the influence in the complex system, which will be conducive to take effective safety management policies. 4. Conclusion 1)Applied system dynamics theory and simulation methods can forecast the coalmine safety management development trend for certain period in the future and provide new dimensions for scholars in safety research field. Simulation time parameters can be reset, such as the extension of simulation time to observe the development trend after reaching the system safety index in order to help enterprises to grasp the development trend of safety investment and safety performance. 2) The influence degree of various factors to coalmine safety management performance differs greatly. Through the simulation, the actual working rate of each factor on the system safety performance in the safety management system can be worked out. The actual working rate of safety education and training is the biggest, followed by Equipment Management and Human Resources Management, which is consistent with the coal mine realities. Therefore, enhancing safety education and training is the focus of reducing coalmine accidents and improving coal mine safety performance. 3) The actual working rate can more accurately reflect the influence of the different factors on the complex system than the weight. Contrastive simulation analysis indicates that the weight of each factor can only reflect its own contribution to the system performance. But the actual working rate can express quantitatively the changes that the changes of certain factor can lead to in the system safety performance, which can better provide evidences for the policy-making of coalmine safety management. Acknowledgements This study is sponsored by Social Sciences Planned Projects Fund by the Ministry of Education of China (No.: 10YJAZH025). Soft science project of AnHui province Dynamic Assessment method of Safety Management Level in Coal Mine References [1] R.Wayne Mondy, Robert. M. Noe, Human Resource management(fifth edition). Allyn Bacon,2001. [2] Gunther Ossimitz, The Development of Systems Thinking Skills Using System Dynamics Modelling Tools, uni-osnabrueck.de/ebooks/gdzn/annual 1996.html. [3] WANG Zhengzhong. Study of Simulation Discipline [J]. Journal of System Simulation (S X), 2007, 9(20): (In Chinese). [4]Warren K D Strategic management dynamics. New York: John Wiley&Sons Inc [5] Jia Renan, Wang Cuixia, Jia Xiaojing, et al.2007a.approaches of SD feedback dynamic complexity analysis to complex system.ss-ms-sd conference,oct:19-21