Per Ronnas Nairobi September, 2011

Transcription

1 Per Ronnas Nairobi September, 2011

2 Income from employment main source of income to the poor Productive employment and decent work main route out of poverty. For growth to become inclusive poor people must be able to contribute fully and on an equal footing to the economic development. Inclusive growth is as much about process as about outcome. 2

3 Employment diagnostic analysis aims at a stronger focus on productive employment and decent work in development policies / strategies with a view to achieve job-rich inclusive growth. To this end: it aims to understand the nature of the deficiency of productive employment and the context-specific constraints, challenges and opportunities for increasing productive employment through inclusive and job-rich growth; as a basis for social dialogue, prioritisation and policy design. 3

4 Productive employment = Employment yielding sufficient returns to labour to permit the worker and his/her dependents a level of consumption above the poverty line. The working poor = Those who are working, but whose income is insufficient to bring themselves and their dependents out of poverty. The deficit of productive employment = those who are in the labour force, but who are not productively employed. This deficit consists of the working poor + the unemployed. 4

5 A deficit of productive employment may be due to The human resource base (lack of education, skills, health etc.), access to other production factors (e.g. land) Poor ability of the economy to make full and productive use of the human resources, that is to offer opportunities to all to participate fully and equally in the economy at a level of productivity and returns to labour that allows escape from poverty Inequality in access to productive employment The issue of sustainability also needs to be brought into the analysis The employment diagnostic analysis needs to capture all these aspects. 5

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7 Productive employment provides the main link between economic growth and poverty reduction A view of human resources as creator of growth through productive employment, rather than productive employment as an outcome of growth Country-specific situation serves as a starting point: there can be no one-size-fits-all solution to specific problems 7

8 in the whole process is crucial for result. Those responsible for designing and implementing policies should also play an active role in the analysis leading up to the identification of the constraints and challenges that need to be addressed Emphasis on : User-friendliness Participation of constituents and stakeholders on a consultative basis throughout the analytical process and as key actors in the second, diagnostic part of the process and in drawing policy conclusions 8

9 Focuses on WHAT has happened and includes a mapping and analysis of: Demographic context and other given factors Characteristics of employment, the labour force and the working poor Rates and patterns of growth of employment and of the economy The dynamics and interaction of economic development, employment, income, inequality and poverty 9

10 Result in a good understanding of the country specific development context and the dynamics of the economy, employment and poverty. Permit a first identification of nature of the challenge to achieve productive employment for all. Include quantitative estimates of the deficit of productive employment and projections of the productive employment creation needed to achieve targets for reducing poverty and unemployment, as a basis for Setting targets for productive employment creation. 10

11 Focuses on WHY? It consists of a comprehensive employment diagnostic analysis. It is aimed at exploring causal chains, separating the important from the less important factors and identifying key constraints and challenges to increasing productive employment. It aims at arriving at a common understanding of the key constraints and challenges as a basis for prioritisation, sequencing and focus in policy development & implementation An employment diagnostic tree, supported with proposals for indicators for all the boxes, is used to guide and structure the analysis 11

12 Increase productive employment and enhance inclusive job-rich growth 1. Productive resources / employability 2. The rate and quality of economic development 3. Inequality 4. Sustainability 1.1 Human resources development 1.2 Investments in human resources See separate breakdown 3.1 Unequal employability 3.2 Unequal access to employment and economic opportunities 4.1 Environmental sustainability / climate change 4.2 Investment in the young 1.3 Access to land 3.3 Unequal availability to work 4.3 Vulnerability to external shocks 12

13 2. The rate and quality of economic development 2.1 Economic growth 2.2 Integration in global economy 2.3 Cost of finance 2.4 Social returns to investments 2.5 Macroeconomic policies 2.6 Market failures 2.7 Sector composition / technology 2.8 Quality of business environment / Institutional factors 2.9 Rent extraction 2.10 Labour market institutions 2.11 Regional concentration of growth 2.12 Social protection 13

14 Consider the employment situation in Mongolia. Despite high growth the country continues to suffer from high levels of poverty and unemployment. Why is this? The Mongolian population has quite high levels of education, although there are large rural-urban differences. There has been high economic growth, but growth has not created much employment and poverty levels remain high Growth has had a narrow base (mining), manufacturing remains insignificant, large regional imbalances Poor international competitiveness is a main constraint Inappropriate macroeconomic policies Poor business environment Poor quality and relevance of education and skills training 14

15 Phase Two - the diagnostic analysis is undertaken by ILO constituents themselves at a workshop. Participants include not only Min. Labour and social partners, but also Min. Planning / Economy/ Finance, Central Bank and local academia. The employment diagnostic tree lends rigour and structure to the analysis, while the results of Phase One, indicators for the boxes in the tree and participants own detailed knowledge serve as input into the analysis. 15

16 Those responsible for designing and implementing policies should themselves identify the problems and their causes A shared understanding of the nature of the main constraints and challenges to productive employment generation and of the policy implications resulting from this. But also: Training in employment analysis. Social dialogue. A reality check for ourselves 16

17 Employment tree in NTT 17

18 Education / skills (BiH, Malawi, Mongolia, NTT) Foreign exchange / trade policies (Mongolia, Malawi, BiH) Market failure / development (BiH, Mongolia, NTT, Maluku) Access to capital (Malawi, NTT, Maluku, East Java) Physical infrastructure (Malawi Mongolia, NTT, Maluku, East Jawa) Quality of business environment (BiH, NTT) Inequality: Gender-based (BiH, NTT, Maluku, East Jawa Malawi) Rural urban (NTT, Maluku, East Jawa, Mongolia) Regional (NTT, Maluku, East Jawa, Mongolia) 18

19 The methodology is well-suited for participatory analysis, where our constituents are in the driving seat during the key stages of the analysis. It does however require considerable mentoring from the back seat. It can be an effective tool for prioritisation within the frame of a holistic approach. Phase One is crucial for a successful Phase Two. As are employment targets and employment diagnostic analysis. The broad-based approach helps prevent tunnel vision. It also offers a way of structuring a complex reality, not least for our constituents. It is a good way of bridging the gap between economic and labour market analysis. It is a good way of pursuing social dialogue, not only between traditional social partners, but also between different branches of Govt. (e.g. economy / planning / labour). 19

20 Thank you! 20