Last time buy versus repair

Transcription

1 Last time buy versus repair Harold Krikke CentER Applied Research Herman Groot Beumer Contell Asset Support 1

2 The problem defined: Plant control systems Shortening life cycles The phase out of systems or parts of systems Support gap: spare parts are no longer guaranteed. There is an option to repair from future returns and/or to buy now from the market/oem. 2

3 Important trends Service Level Agreements Function selling/servitisation Total Cost of Ownership Producer Responsibility (EU legislation) Heavier warranty responsibilities IT: e.g. remote diagnostics, advanced planning Etc. This leads to a paradigm shift to Product Life Cycle Mgt. Supply chains extended into Circular chains 3

4 INFORMATION MANAGEMENT PC (eg MAINTENANCE MONITORING) PC (eg ENGINEERING) MIS HOSTS PC (eg LAB. ANALYSIS) UNIVERSAL STATION UNIVERSAL STATION x GLOBAL USER STATION PLANT INTRANET GUS HOST COMPUTERS (eg SACDA TRAINER, PLANT SCHEDULING, PIROS, OPTIMISER) PERSONAL COMPUTER NETWORK MODULE PROCESS SUPERVISION GLOBAL USER STATION GLOBAL USER STATION HISTORY MODULE COMPUTER GATEWAY APPLICATIONS SERVER (eg TPH, RMPCT) COMPUTER GATEWAY LOCAL CONTROL NETWORK PROCESS CONTROL PROGRAMMABLE LOGIC CONTROLLER GATEWAYS SERIAL LINKS FAIL SAFE CONTROLLER SAFETY MANAGER NETWORK INTERFACE MODULE HIGH-PERFORMANCE PROCESS MANAGER SCANNER APPLICATION MODULE LIPPKE HIWAY GATEWAY BASIC / EXTENDED / MULTIFUNCTION CONTROLLER COMPRESSOR CONTROLS CORPORATION e.g. METERING TANK GAUGING DENSITY LOGIC MANAGER REMOTE I/O ADVANCED OPERATOR STATION ADVANCED MULTIFUNCTION CONTROLLER SERIAL LINKS UNIVERSAL CONTROL NETWORK RECORDERS UNIVERSAL DIGITAL CONTROLLER 6300 e.g. SUBSEA WEIGHSCALES VIBRATION DATA HIWAY FIELD INFORMATION DEW POINT TRANSMITTER SMART VALVE POSITIONER SMART GAS CHROMATOGRAPH SMART MAGNETIC FLOWMETER SMART PRESSURE TRANSMITTER SMART TEMPERATURE TRANSMITTER SMART CORIOLIS METER ph/orp MULTI-FUNCTION ANALYZER/CONTROLLER 4

5 Installed base: indenture levels system system module module module part part part For ex.: 3 levels 5

6 P3 problem defined Systems: redundancy On site: P1: parts Shell P2: kits OEM procurement P3: pool contell repairables new LTB Free Market (OEM) 6

7 Supply chain sites P1: parts Moerdijk/pernis P2: kits replenishment Repair P3: pool Contell Last Time Buy 7

8 Research Quarantee availability parts (100%) Decision variables: repair and/or LTB, and how much Taking into account Installed base size, reconfiguration and downscaling/phase-out Failure rate and bath tube (uncertainty) Yield of repair process (uncertainty) 100% availability LTB opportunities Planning cycle: once per 3 months Planning horizon 5 years Sku s: 100 8

9 A basic start +Initial part 9

10 10

11 An Example One type of system Four modules, 10 parts, BOM structure (indenture levels) A planning horizon of 5 years IB from 2 systems to 1 after year 2 BOM structure changes after 3 rd year modelled by configurations A and B Goal: 100% availability, no excessive stock allowed Returns repaired if possible Expected shortages covered in LTB 11

12 Building blocks BOM Box 4 is possibly phased out Which means that part 10 is phased out 12

13 Current inventory at moment of planning Part 10 has high stock! Expected failure rates at moment of planning Change of configuration means that box 4 is phased out, which consists of 3 parts of type 10 Also the # of systems is reduced over time Expected repair yield at the moment of planning 13

14 Demand derived from IB size, configuration and BOM multiplied by the failure rates After year 2 demand is cut in half due to reduced IB Indeed part 10 is missing after year 3 Repairs partly fulfill demand LTB to guarantee 100% availability Scrap part 10 in year 1 to avoid excess stock 14

15 Lessons learned Some weird modelling things - Planner wants to see shortages (without LTB) - But also wants optimised LTB vs.repair - Money no object (ive function) No proper Transaction system in place - Shell data inconsistent and incomplete - No DW, No Online Decision Database Conservative - Proven technology - Risk avoidance: overstocking Enormous improvement potential (R-EVA) 15

16 Model extensions Data-mining, trends, forecasting Different repair yield for phase-out and failures Stochastic modelling of uncertainty scenarios introduce real cost + penalty cost 16

17 Probablistic LP 17

18 E.g. Cost full repair 3/4 repair 3/4 LTB LTB high rel low rel 18

19 Outlook Bottlenecks (challenges) - Transactional IS are critical, not the technology but the organisation to get the right info in there! - Web enabling - Lack of OR understanding - Opportunies but much needs to be done organisation-wise Developments - More returns, less repair (returns are good or bad) - Increased reuse More reconfiguration, phase-outs,upgrades (remote) Diagnostics/X-ray needs to be FOOL and FULL-proof RD not only technical but also commercial Value separation Cross product/cross generation exchangeability 19

20 Océ case early 80 s start machine revision activities early 90 s 1 december december 1998 start parts recycling activities within Manufacturing start separate Asset Recovery unit start separate Remanufacturing unit 20

21 Oce process Factory location preparation Asset Recovery RMS OPCO Germany re-assembly external suppliers Manufacturing FMS OPCO England Customer sites more OPCOs 21

22 22

23 PLCm the Océ 7050 large size plain copier with 75% reduction of energy consumption and many design for reuse details Broader: - modularity/source reduction - value separation - standardisation -PDM - Re-engineering - business model - Environmental strategy 23

24 Relation between PLCm and CSCs components life cycle product life cyle 1 R&D design info Planning & forecasting Realisation Sales & Distribution test info Use & Support discard & return test & select test remanufacturing test part scrap repair reuse in. use and support. refurbishing. remanuacturing Raw material Manufacturing Sales and Distribution Service Re-fill Customer product life cyle 2 R&D Planning & forecasting Refurbishing Sales & Distribution Use & Support Repair Test discard & return Refurbishing design info test info test & select test cannibalisation Cannibalisation Disassembly product life cyle 3 R&D Planning & forecasting Remanufacturing Sales & Distribution Use & Support discard & return Recycling Reuse-manufacturing Disposal PLCm cannibalisation scrap test & select scrap Supply chain must cover product life cycle CSC 24

25 Definitions PLCm Optimising a product s quality, cost and environmental impact over the full life cycle Or: minimise total cost of ownership, maximise total value of ownership CSCs The integration of business processes that create additional value [..] through extending product life cycles and closing goods flows Or: CSCs facilitate PLCm 25

26 CSC: : 3 main areas covered Shell case: Installed Base Support Maximise availability at minimal cost, : repairs, upgrades, replenishments, inventory control, phase out, diagnostics Reverse Logistics Regain maximal net value, comply with environmental constraints : collection, testing, disassembly, recovery, re-distribution, inv. control Oce case: Re-use manufacturing Build as good as new product or service part partly from old subassemblies : reverse MRP, multi-source cap. Planning, EOQR, inv.control 26