Integrating Modeling & Simulation Into The Planning Process

Transcription

1 Integrating Modeling & Simulation Into The Planning Process The Fifth National Emergency Management Summit 14 September 2011 Daniel M. Walsh, MPA, Argonne National Laboratory

2 Benefits of Modeling Test Assumptions Alternative Courses of Action Identify Resource Gaps Confirm Tactics Justify Policies Exercises Pre and Post Exercise Models 2

3 Building Models & Simulations: Key Ingredients

4 Power of a Simulation: Assign Attributes Agents People Arrival Random Pick Ups Resources Link Resources, Tasks & Time PODs RSS/LDS Rate of March Injects Flooding / Hurricane Road Network 4

5 Modeling: Preparedness Advantage Simulate Full Scale Exercises from your Computer 5

6 FEMA Technical Assistance Program: Florida Cities Readiness Initiative (CRI) Modeling Project 6

7 Model: Logistics and Process Analysis Tool 7

8 Florida Objective: Improve Supply Chain Operations

9 LPAT Public Health Supply Chain Specifics: From Warehouse to Citizen National/Regional Stocks Region, State, County, Municipality Neighborhood Pre-positioned Supplies Logistics Staging Areas, Receiving & Shipping Stations Points of Dispensing Bulk Loads: Single commodities per transport or pre-identified mixed load Push packages Mixed Loads: Break-bulk loads into mixed commodities for transport to POD -Vendor Managed Inventory Individual Issue: Mixed commodities, Prophylaxis dosages Pick-Up Policies ELIST models movement to RSS/LSA ELIST models movement to POD PAT models LSA/RSS processes PAT models POD processes 9

10 Florida Modeling Goal: Eliminate the Pixie Dust 10

11 Florida Process: 1 st Modeling Steps Analyze Plans SNS Plan RSS Plan County All Hazard Plans County Mass Dispensing Plans Interviews Planning & Logistics Staff GIS Data Road Network 11

12 Second Step: Apply Logistical Assumptions FDOH SNS/MI Deliveries Miami Dade POD Broward County Drive Through POD Orange County Drive Through POD Lake County Drive Through POD 12

13 Initial Models: Beyond CRI Timeline 13

14 Broward County: Adjust Resources 1.3 Million in 48 Hours 10 Drive Through PODs Change POD Personnel Registration: 10 (+4) Triage: 4 (+2) Medical Evaluation: 2 (same) Dispensing: 14 (10) Check Out: 10 (+6) Increased staff: 16 to 40 14

15 Revision: Adjust Resources & Timing of Tasks 15

16 Orange County Example: Adjust Resources & Pick Up Policy 1. Adjust Resources Increase POD Staff Forms Staff: 4 to 8 Dispensing Staff: 20 to 30 Result: 56 Hour Campaign 2. Change Pick Up Policy Random to Single Random: to 15 Single: 1 Resident Pick Up for 15 Family/Friends Result: 38 Hour Campaign

17 Preparedness Impact In Florida FDOH Revised Logistics Supports Annex to the Florida Emergency Operations Plan Replaced multiple POD delivery system with 1 Local Distribution Site per county/region Advocates modeling to increase likelihood of successful execution of plans Strengthened Public Information Policy: 1 resident to pick up medication for up to 15 family/friends Updated Contracts: All transportation vendors must have lift gates Counties Miami Dade Mass Prophylaxis Plan Changes Reduced PODs: 100 to 15 mega PODs Reduced staff: 12,000 to 6,000 Revised Broward s POD Staffing Plan Demonstrated need to increase public drive through POD staff by 150% 17 17

18 Florida Lessons Learned Change Terminology Training Games Training Manual 18

19 What If? Games: Laptop/Desktop Exercises Key: Test Assumptions & Try Different Courses of Action 1. Change Resources 2. Change Process Times 3. Change Head of Household Pick Ups 4. Add Managed Inventory Delays 5. Change the Road Rate of March 6. Change Fleet Assets 7. Change RSS/POD Locations 8. Add MSEL Injects 9. Change POD Population 10.Add POD Work Stations 11.Add Vehicles 12.Compare Reports: Medication Consumption v. Individual Regimens 19

20 Modeling Message: Test Different Options 20

21 Questions Daniel M. Walsh Argonne National Laboratory (w) (cell) 21