Weekly Performance Update - To Grain Week 32 (CY 2017) Covering 90% of grain movement originating in Western Canada

Transcription

1 Week 32 Performance CN and CP supplied a combined 53% of hopper cars ordered in grain week 32 representing a slight improvement from the 45% of cars supplied on time last week. CN supplied 50% of cars ordered while CP supplied 57% of cars ordered. CN and CP combined will enter week 32 with 3,931 outstanding orders - a 14% improvement (-653) from the position entering week 32. While the overall number of outstanding orders has declined this reflects a reduction of 588 outstanding orders by CN and a nominal reduction of 65 orders in CP's position. In week 32 order fulfillment performance continued to be poor across most corridors for both railways. The best performing corridor for CN was E Canada which saw 98% of hopper cars for week 32 supplied on time - albeit this corridor represented only 7% of total orders for the week. The two worst performing corridors in week 32 were also the largest - Vancouver (44%) and Prince Rupert (49%) - that collectively represented 86% of total hopper car orders. For CP the best performance was seen in the Vancouver corridor which received 72% of total orders on time. Beyond this no corridor received more than 40% of cars ordered with two corridors - Thunder Bay and E Canada - receiving none of the 450 hopper cars ordered for the week. CN CN supplied 50% of hopper cars ordered for week 32 improving for the second consecutive week from the lows of 17% seen in weeks 29 and 30 and up from 36% last week. In supplying 50% of week 32 orders on time CN failed to supply 2,321 hopper cars ordered for week 32. CN supplied 2,320 of the 4,641 cars ordered for week 32. During week 32 CN supplied a total of 3,871 hoppers although 1,396 of these were for outstanding orders placed prior to week 32 (see table page 3). The cars supplied by CN in week 32 represents the largest number of hopper cars supplied in a week since week 23 in December. While week 32 performance reflects continued improvement as compared to recent weeks it marks the 11th consecutive week and the 20th time in the prior 22 weeks that CN has failed to supply at least 80% of cars ordered by shippers. During that 22 week period CN has failed to supply at least 60% of hopper cars ordered 12 times. Performance was poor across all shippers with only two shippers receiving 70% or more of cars ordered for week 32. Shipper demand returned above the 4,000 car threshold for the 8th time in the preceding 10 weeks - with week 32 orders some 400 higher than the 4,200 order weekly average seen over the prior 10 weeks. Hopper Car Rationing CP CN rationed 1,536 shipper orders in week 32 - a 25% increase as compared to the prior week and the second consecutive week where the number of rationed orders has risen. Preliminary indications are that week 33 rationing will be in effect although to what extent has not yet been determined. Rationed orders this week were once again focused on the Vancouver and Prince Rupert corridors that accounted for 93% of all rationed orders - a consistent pattern throughout the course of the year. Over the course of the last 6 weeks CN has rationed more than 7,000 orders with Vancouver (3,320) and Prince Rupert (3,330) accounting for 95% of all rationing. Prince Rupert has seen the most significant rationing over the course of the last 4 weeks with nearly 740 orders rationed per week during that time period. Through the first 32 weeks of the current grain year CN has rationed a total of 19,877 hopper car orders for ATC shippers, nearly 7x as many as during the same time period last year and more than 5x as many as all of last year. As previously noted the significantly higher level of rationing is occurring during a year when shipper demand is effectively identical to that seen last year. Year to date orders have been rationed across all corridors as shown below: Prince Rupert 8,223 Vancouver 8,614 Thunder Bay 2,199 All other 841 Orders rationed by CN during the current grain year represent 13% of total shipper demand through the first 32 weeks. Heading in to week 33 CN has 1,273 outstanding orders - a reduction of 588 (32%) from the level of outstanding orders heading into week 32. CP fulfilled 57% of hopper car orders in week 32 remaining below the 60% order fulfillment threshold for the 3rd consecutive week. The last six weeks (27-32) represent the six worst weeks for on time order fulfillment for CP during the current grain year with CP averaging 61% on time order fulfillment performance during that time period as compared to 88% in the 26 preceding weeks. CP has now fallen below the 80% performance threshold for the seventh 1

2 consecutive week. For week 32 CP supplied 1,648 of the 2,879 hopper cars ordered failing to supply 1,231 cars ordered for week 32. During week 32 CP supplied a total of 3,144 hopper cars although 1,332 were for orders placed prior to week 32. (see table page 3) Shipper demand remained below the 4,000 car threshold for the 11th consecutive week averaging 3,300 orders weekly during that time period. While CP performance was better than CN in week 32 it is noted that five shippers served by CP received 20% or less of the cars ordered for week 32 and with four shippers receiving less than 5% of cars ordered. No hopper car orders were rationed by CP in week 32 Heading in to week 33 CP has 2,658 outstanding orders representing a nominal improvement of only 65 orders from their position entering week 32. Of the 2,658 orders outstanding on CP fully 60% (1,600) are for cars ordered prior to week 32. By comparison CN's outstanding orders are more current with only 43% (550) of orders for weeks prior to week 32. 2

3 Performance Dashboard Hopper Car Demand Weekly Performance Update - To Grain Week 32 (CY 2017) Cars Shipped Week 32 This Year Last Year This Year versus Last Year This Year This Year Last Year vs. Last Year YTD Weekly Average YTD Weekly Average YTD Weekly Average CN 4,641 4, ,351 4, ,271 4, CP 2,879 3,980 (1,101) 129,686 4, ,501 4, ,520 8,236 (716) 272,037 8, ,772 8, Railway Corridor Week 32 YTD CN N.A. Domestic ,038 Prince Rupert ,474 Thunder Bay 12,510 Vancouver 2,331 61,189 Total 3, ,211 CP N.A. Domestic ,728 Thunder Bay 25,449 Vancouver 3,338 84,626 Total 3, ,803 Empty Hopper Cars Supplied - Week 32 (All Want Weeks) Current Week Orders This Last Year Year Prior Week Orders Future Week Orders Total Cars Supplied Last Last This This Year Year This Year Year Year Last Year CN 2,295 3,278 1, ,871 3,744 CP 1,548 2,663 1, ,144 3,457 3,843 5,941 2,698 1, ,015 7,201 Supplied by Block Size Week 32 Year to Date Block Size CN CP Total CN CP Total 1 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 25 15% 1% 9% 5% 2% 4% 50 7% 13% 10% 12% 11% 12% % 83% 80% 81% 84% 82% Current Week Order Fulfillment CN CP Total Current Week Hopper Car Demand 4,641 2,879 7,520 Current Week Order Fulfillment Supplied in Current Week 2,295 1,548 3,843 Supplied Early Total Cars Supplied for Want Week 2,320 1,648 3,968 Current Week Unfulfilled Demand (2,321) (1,231) (3,552) % Current Week Orders Supplied 50% 57% 53% 50% 57% Loaded Dwell Time (Hours) at Origin (All Traffic) Week 32 Year to Date This Year Last Year This Year Last Year CN CP Dwell Time (Hours) at Destination (All Traffic) Week 32 Year to Date This Year Last Year This Year Last Year Vancouver CN CP Thunder Bay CN CP

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6 Corridor Performance Total Hopper Car Supply by Corridor for Current Year Orders - To Week 32 Railway Corridor Ordered Supplied Unfulfilled Demand %Supplied CN Vancouver Bulk 69,257 59,133 (10,124) 85% Thunder Bay 14,979 12,493 (2,486) 83% Prince Rupert 41,644 32,605 (9,039) 78% Vancouver Other / W. Canada 2,563 2,074 (489) 81% USA / Mexico 5,879 5,302 (577) 90% Eastern Canada 8,029 7,367 (662) 92% Total 142, ,974 (23,377) 84% CP Vancouver Bulk 83,280 80,497 (2,783) 97% Thunder Bay 26,237 25,413 (824) 97% Vancouver Other / W. Canada 5,472 4,781 (691) 87% USA / Mexico 10,335 9,646 (689) 93% Eastern Canada 4,362 3,946 (416) 90% Total 129, ,283 (5,403) 96% 6

7 Hopper Cars Supplied in the Want Week by Corridor - To Week 32 Week 32 Year to Date Railway Corridor Ordered Supplied %Supplied Ordered Supplied %Supplied CN Vancouver Bulk 2,441 1,072 44% 69,257 45,274 65% Thunder Bay 14,979 11,303 75% Prince Rupert 1, % 41,644 25,102 60% Vancouver Other / W. Canada % 2,563 1,585 62% USA / Mexico % 5,879 4,000 68% Eastern Canada % 8,029 5,245 65% CN Total 4,641 2,320 50% 142,351 92,509 65% CP Vancouver Bulk 2,131 1,541 72% 83,280 72,172 87% Thunder Bay 283 0% 26,237 23,029 88% Vancouver Other / W. Canada % 5,472 3,561 65% USA / Mexico % 10,335 7,171 69% Eastern Canada 167 0% 4,362 3,112 71% CP Total 2,879 1,648 57% 129, ,045 84% 7

8 Origin Dwell Performance Weekly Performance Update - To Grain Week 32 (CY 2017) 8

9 Destination Dwell Performance 9

10 Port Terminal - Unloading Time Weekly Performance Update - To Grain Week 32 (CY 2017) 10

11 Glossary of Terms Hopper Car Demand Empty Hopper Cars Supplied Supplied by Block Size Hopper Cars Supplied in Want Week Want Week Cars Supplied Early Cars Supplied Late Hopper Car Orders Supplied Within the Want Week Future Week Orders Prior Week Orders Outstanding Orders Unfulfilled Demand Origin Dwell Destination Dwell Unloading Time Port Terminal Unloading Time The total number of hopper cars ordered for a given want week for each of CN and CP. Demand data is presented for the current week report and for the grain year to date. Comparisons are provided for the current grain versus the prior grain year. A count of all empty hopper cars supplied for the grain service week being reported on. Supply is categorized based on whether it is for the current want week, for prior week orders or for future week orders (supplied early). Percentage distribution of total hopper car supply for the current report week and year to date (YTD) based on the block size ordered by shippers and as reported by shippers. A count of all empty hopper cars supplied for a want week in that want week including cars supplied early which are considered on time. Order week as defined by the railways Cars supplied for orders in a given want week supplied in advance of that week these cars are considered on time for performance measurement purposes. Cars supplied during a grain service week that are for a prior week s orders. The number of hopper cars supplied by the railways during or in advance of the want week expressed as a percentage of total orders for the week. Orders supplied in a given grain service week that are for orders in weeks after the week for which performance is being reported. Reference Page 1 Empty Hopper Cars Supplied Orders supplied in a given grain service week that are for orders in weeks prior to the week for which performance is being reported. Reference Page 1 Empty Hopper Cars Supplied Orders that shippers expect to have fulfilled by the railways that remain unfulfilled as of the report date. This excludes bad order cars, shorted cars, denied orders and railway cancellations. The calculation of total unfulfilled demand for hopper cars represents the accumulated difference across all grain weeks in the year between the number of cars ordered by shippers and the number of cars supplied by the railway for those orders. This total unfulfilled demand includes orders not filled as a result of bad order and shorted cars and as such represents the volume of missed and deferred shipper orders. The elapsed time from the release of loaded cars by shippers to the time the railways physically pull the cars from a shipper s siding for movement to destination. The elapsed time from the time a railcar arrives at the destination railway yard to the time it is placed at the receiver s facility for unloading. The average time elapsed between the placement of a loaded car at the receiver s facility and the release of the empty car back to the railway. The average elapsed time between the placement of a loaded car for unloading to the release of the empty car. This measure is based on railway reported placement and empty release events. 11