Photovoltaic Manufacturer Capacity, Shipments, Price & Revenues 2015/2016 SPV Market Research Paula Mints, Chief Market Research Analyst

Transcription

1 Price & Revenues 2015/ Report SPV-Supply4 Photovoltaic Manufacturer Capacity, Shipments, Price & Revenues 2015/2016 SPV Market Research Paula Mints, Chief Market Research Analyst Report SPV-Supply4 April 2016

2 Price & Revenues 2015/ Report SPV-Supply4 Copyright 2016 SPV Market Research All rights reserved. No material contained in this report may be reproduced in whole or in part without the express written permission of SPV Market Research. This report is intended for the sole and exclusive use of the original purchaser and may not be distributed or transferred in any form to any other person or entity. SPV Market Research provides the information in this report for informational purposes only and does not grant any express or implied warranty, guaranty, or representation concerning the information contained in this report, its merchantability, or its fitness for a particular purpose or function. Any reference to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by SPV Market Research. Neither SPV Market Research nor any of its affiliates shall be liable to you or any third party in damages of whatever kind that may result from any reliance on (or use of) any information contained in this report. By receiving this report, you acknowledge that any reliance on information contained in this report shall be at your sole risk.

3 Price & Revenues 2015/ Report SPV-Supply4 Contents 1. Introduction Purpose and Scope... 8 Table 1.1 Overview (Examples) of Photovoltaic Manufacturer Coverage (1) (2) Methodology Executive Summary Industry Overview and Analysis Figure 2.1: PV Industry Growth 1975 through Figure 2.2: PV Industry ASPs and Average Costs Cell/Module Manufacturer Shipments Figure 2.3: PV Industry Metrics Figure 2.4: PV Manufacturers shipping >3% of Total in Table 2.1: Regional Shipments 2010 to 2015 (1) (2) Figure 2.5: PV Industry Growth, and Five Year Forecast Regional Shipments Table 2.2: Regional Manufacturer Shipments* Figure 2.6: 2014 Global Supply & Global Demand Shipments by Technology Figure 2.7: Technology Market Share % 2012, 2013, 2014 and Figure 2.8: N-Type Monocrystalline Shipments 2014 and Revenues Figure 2.9: PV Cell/Module Revenues and ASPs, Average Selling Price (ASP) Table 2.3: PV Industry Cell/Module Revenues, Shipments & ASPs Manufacturing Capacity Figure 2.10: Regional Capacity Shares, 2014, Overview of Global Module Assembly Capacity Figure 2.11: Global Module Assembly Capacity,

4 Price & Revenues 2015/ Report SPV-Supply4 2.7 Top Ten Manufacturers Figure 2.12: Top Ten Photovoltaic Manufacturers Production, Shipments, Inventory & Revenues, 2014/ Figure 3.1: Manufacturer Capacity, Production, Shipments & Inventory, Table 3.1: 2015 Supply Metrics, Module Assembly Capacity, c-si Cell/Thin Film Capacity, Shipments, Announced Shipments 1) Table 3.2: 2015 Select Manufacturer Announced Shipments and Actual Shipments 1) Figure 3.2: PV Industry Metrics Figure 3.3: Capacity, Production, Shipments and Inventory for the US, Europe, China, Malaysia, Taiwan and Japan, Shipments by Region & Manufacturer Figure 3.4: 2015 Global Supply & Global Demand Table 3.3: Regional Shipments 2010 to 2015 (1) (2) Table 3.4: Manufacturer Shipment Shares by Region, 2000 to Table 3.5: Regional Manufacturer Shipments* Figure 3.5: Supply/Demand Data for Europe, the US, China and Japan, Table 3.6: Summary of Regional Positions at the Beginning of Table 3.6: Summary of Regional Positions at the Beginning of 2015, Continued Table 3.6: Summary of Regional Positions at the Beginning of 2015, Continued Figure 3.6: 2015 Manufacturer Market Shares by Region (1) (2) (3) Table 3.7: 2014/2015 Manufacturer Shipments US, Europe, Japan & Malaysia Table 3.8: 2014/2015 Manufacturer Shipments Taiwan, China (1) (2) (3) Table 3.9: 2014/2015 Manufacturer Shipments, South Korea, Singapore, Philippines, India, ROW (1) (2) (3)(4) Figure 3.7: PV Manufacturers shipping >3% of Total in Shipments by Technology Figure 3.8: Technology Market Share % 2012, 2013, 2014 and Figure 3.9: N-Type Monocrystalline Shipments 2014 and Table 3.10: Technology Market Share % & Growth Rate %* (MWp)... 58

5 Price & Revenues 2015/ Report SPV-Supply4 Table Shipments US, Europe, Japan and Malaysia (MWp) Table 3.12: 2015 Technology Shipments Taiwan, China (MWp) (1) (2) Table 3.13: 2015 Technology Shipments South Korea, Singapore, Philippines, India & Other (MWp) (1) (2) Table 3.14: U.S., Europe, Japan, Taiwan, China & Malaysia Contribution to Technology Shipments* 2014, Table 3.15: South Korea, Singapore, Philippines, India and Rest of the World (ROW) Contribution to Technology Shipments* 2014, Figure 3.10: Country/Region Technology % Contribution Figure 3.11: Technology % Contribution Table 3.16: Shipments by Technology Category, (MWp)* Global Cell and Module Revenues Figure 3.12: PV Cell/Module Revenues and ASPs, Figure 3.13: PV Cell/Module Revenues and Shipments, Figure 3.14: PV Cell & Module Revenues by Country/Region 2014/ Figure 3.15: PV Cell & Module Revenues by Country/Region 2014/ Table 3.17: Regional Cell/Module Revenue Growth* ($ Million) Figure 3.16: Cell & Module Revenues Market Outlook, Table 3.18: Five-Year Technology Forecast to 2020 (MWp)* Figure 3.17: Conservative, Accelerated & Low Incentive Revenue Forecast to Selling Price Trends in Average Module Pricing Table 4.1: PV Industry Cell/Module Revenues, Shipments & ASPs Figure 4.1: Photovoltaic Industry Prices and Shipments, Table 4.2: Module Pricing Trends (Current $/Wp)* Figure 4.2: Module Pricing Trends, $/Wp Table 4.3: Regional & Total Shipments and ASPs* (Current Dollars) Thin Film Pricing Figure 4.3: Thin Film & Large Buyer c-si ASPs , Current Dollars $ Future Pricing Trends... 88

6 Price & Revenues 2015/ Report SPV-Supply4 Figure 4.4: Price History & Forecast all ASP Categories, (2015 Constant Dollars) Manufacturing Capacity, Utilization & Module Assembly Table 5.1: Average Global Capacity Utilization * Table 5.2: Global Capacity Production, Shipments and Inventory, * Cell/Module Capacity and Utilization, All Manufacturers Figure 5.1: Regional Photovoltaic Manufacturing Capacity, Figure 5.2: Regional Photovoltaic Manufacturing Capacity, Figure 5.3: Shipments, Capacity & Utilization, all Manufacturers, Table 5.3: PV Industry Capacity, Shipments and Utilization, MWp * Table 5.4: Country/Regional Annual Capacity/Shipment Growth (MWp)* Figure 5.4: Regional Capacity Shares, 2014, Manufacturing Capacity by Technology Table 5.5: Crystalline Manufacturing Capacity & Shipments, MWp Figure 5.5: Crystalline Capacity and Shipments, All Countries Table 5.6: Amorphous Silicon Capacity/Shipments* MWp Figure 5.6: Amorphous Silicon Capacity & Shipments, 2015 MWp Table 5.7 CdTe Capacity & Shipments MWp* Figure 5.7: CdTe Technology Capacity and Shipments Table 5.8: CIGS/CIS Capacity & Shipments* MWp Figure 5.8: CIGS/CIS Capacity & Shipments Table 5.9: Crystalline & Thin Film Capacity & Shipments* (MWp) Overview of Global Module Assembly Capacity Figure 5.9: Global Module Assembly Capacity, Table 5.10: 2014 Regional Module Assembly, Crystalline Cell /Thin Film Panel Capacity Top Ten Manufacturers Top Ten PV Technology Manufacturers Figure 6.1: Top Ten Photovoltaic Manufacturers Table 6.1: Top Ten Manufacturer Technology Focus, Location, Module Assembly and Cell Capacity 2015*

7 Price & Revenues 2015/ Report SPV-Supply4 Table 6.2: Top Ten Manufacturers, 2010 to 2015* Figure 6.2: Top Ten Manufacturer Cell & Module Revenue Shares

8 Price & Revenues 2015/ Report SPV-Supply4 1. Introduction 1.1 Purpose and Scope The Photovoltaic Manufacturer Shipments: Capacity, Price and Revenues report provides an analysis of quantitative shipment, capacity, and module price data for the supply side of the terrestrial photovoltaic industry. This report has been published annually since It focusses on the most recent two years of supply side activity also forecasting the next five years of crystalline and thin film shipments. The manufacturer shipment section updates long-term regional shipment history, crystalline and thin film shipments and market shares, cumulative manufacturing histories, and manufacturing capacities useful in management analysis of the industry. The subject of industry price behavior is covered in a separate chapter. The report also includes a chapter with analysis on the leading manufacturers in terms of shipments for 2014 and Manufacturers covered in this report produce technology as cells, cells to modules, and thin film panels. Module assemblers that buy cells from technology manufacturers and assemble into modules are considered demand side participants and though shipments for this group are not analyzed in this report, the chapter on price will include a discussion about the pricing and buying behavior of this population. It is well known that the PV industry has been experiencing a period of consolidation. Table 1.1 provides examples of the c-si cell and thin film panel manufacturers whose shipment information was used to prepare this report, some of which may no longer be producing technology in This list is not exhaustive and is meant to provide a representative overview of cell and thin film manufacturing participation.

9 Price & Revenues 2015/ Report SPV-Supply4 Table 1.1 Overview (Examples) of Photovoltaic Manufacturer Coverage (1) (2) US Europe Japan First Solar China Sunergy (Turkey) Kaneka Global Solar Hanergy Solibro (Germany) Kyocera SolarWorld Hanwha Q-Cells (Germany) Mitsubishi Electric Suniva Photowatt (France) Panasonic Stion SolarWorld (Germany) Sharp (3) Global Solar Trina Solland Solar Frontier Ascent Solar MiaSolé (Hanergy) Malaysia South Korea Taiwan AUO SunPower Hyundai E-Ton First Solar LG Solar Gintech Hanwha Q-Cells Samsung Inventec Solar Panasonic Hanwha Q-Cells South Korea Motech Solar JA Solar Malaysia Shinsung Solar Energy NeoSolar Astroenergy Malaysia Solartech Jinko Solar Malaysia Sun Well TetraSun Sunrise Global Solar Energy TS SolarTech Tainergy TopCell TSEC Taiwan Solar Energy Corp China India ROW Astroenergy Moser Baer REC (Singapore) Canadian Solar Tata Solar Power Limited WK Solar Power (Singapore) China Sunergy CEL SunPower (Philippines) Hanwha Q-Cells Udahaya Microsol (Saudi Arabia) Hareon Solar Waaree Zhongli Talesun Bangkok JA Solar Bangkok Solar Power Jinko Solar Ningbo Solar Shungfeng International Clean Energy Suntech Trina Yingli Motech China (1) Smaller manufacturers providing outsourcing cell capability in China, Taiwan, India and Malaysia, for example, have not been specified in Table 1.1. This table offers a representative example of global PV cell and thin film current manufacturing capability. (2) Module assemblers without cell capacity are not listed in Table 1 (3) In 2016 Sharp was acquired by China-based Foxconn. At publication plans to continue photovoltaic manufacturing had not been announced.

10 Price & Revenues 2015/ Report SPV-Supply4 The content of the report is organized into the following chapters: Chapter 2, Executive Summary: offers a high-level overview of the primary data and analysis presented in the body of the report. Chapter 3, Production, Shipments, Inventory and Revenues, : This chapter includes PV industry statistics important to understanding the industry s competitive position and to recognizing emerging trends. These statistics include data on individual manufacturer production, shipments and inventory, regional shipment growth, technology shipments (c-si and thin films), and trends in revenue over the last several years as well as a discussion of cost trends and industry profitability. The chapter ends with a technology forecast to Chapter 4, Selling Price and Costs: Describes trends in global average selling price (ASP) for cell/module shipments since Regression analysis is used to generate future price forecasts, based on quantified historic trends that indicate price reduction as a function of cumulative shipments (manufacturing experience). This chapter includes analysis on whether or learning curve analysis is currently applicable to PV industry pricing given industry constraints such as inventory, subsidies and aggressive pricing. Prices for c-si technologies, thin film technologies, inventory re-sales and system pricing will be analyzed. An estimate of costs will be provided. Forecast projections to 2020 and to 2025 are provided for two different forecast scenarios, conservative and accelerated. Chapter 5, Manufacturing Capacity, Production and Utilization, : This chapter compares industry cell manufacturing capacity to overall production and shipments. Wherever possible, an attempt has been made to identify shipments from inventory, and to separate these from shipments of calendar year This has been done to ensure an accurate characterization of PV industry capacity statistics. The chapter offers an analysis of: shipment volume versus capacity levels, shipments compared to capacity by four major regions, regional analysis of crystalline and thin film technologies among other topics. This chapter also provides an overview of global module assembly capacity. Chapter 6, Overview of the leading PV manufacturers in terms of shipments for 2015.

11 Price & Revenues 2015/ Report SPV-Supply4 1.2 Methodology Market research is the objective study of a subject using data gathered through primary research to characterize, analyze and forecast demand and supply for, in this case, the photovoltaic industry. It is a specific discipline where something is counted from point a, to point b, and on from b to point c, and so on. The point is to eliminate double counting and arrive at specific metrics for the purpose of defining a market or an industry. For the purpose of this practice, the raw material is counted until it becomes a wafer/ingot, then to the cell, then to the module, then to the first point of sale in the market (first buyer), then to the installation (end user). Thin film shipments are assessed using the same methodology. In the case of SPV Market Research the data go back >40 years, allowing for the identification of trends over time. A classic market research focus should be on quantifiable metrics (data), announcements are not data. Announcements are made for a variety of reasons including: calling attention to something upcoming or new, re-calling attention to something previously announced, to call attention to an achievement (such as champion cell efficiency or commercial efficiency records), announce a product release, or take attention away from something negative, among other purposes. The purpose of market research is to provide an objective analysis that managers and executives can use for business planning purposes. The data presented in this report reflect primary field survey effort, interviews, coverage of major technical conferences, review of available literature, and summary of government programs. The data used for this analysis reflects information gathered from surveys of both photovoltaic cell/module manufacturers (supply-side) and demand-side participants, such as photovoltaic distributors, system integrators, dealers, installers, OEMs, etc. Survey effort includes silicon feedstock manufacturers, wafer manufactures, and end users of PV products. The analysis also reflects an understanding of the manufacturing capability of the industry. This combination provides SPV Market Research with a realistic and balanced basis from which to view the current and future progress of the photovoltaic industry. To avoid double-counting, SPV Market Research analyzed shipments (sales) of internal cells. Shipments are considered an important metric, valuable to management decisions.