Supplement to Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics

Transcription

1 Supplement to Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics 11 Year Industry Data Trends and Domestic Container Analysis Historical Intermodal Data Trends The data trends section of this supplement is derived from IANA s Equipment Type, Size and Ownership datafile.the Equipment Type, Size and Ownership Data Subscription provides all the underlying aggregate data used in the compilation of the Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics quarterly analysis report including: Regional volume flow (excludes intra-region volume) Various size and type of equipment Equipment ownership: whether private or rail-controlled Cumulative data by month The following analysis was provided by T. Prince & Associates, LLC. This analysis aggregates intermodal volume into three equipment segment categories, as shown below. Intermodal Segmentation Size Container Trailer 20 Marine ISO 28 Domes Marine ISO Domes c Domes Supplement to Intermodal Market Trends IANA

2 This chart diplays North American intermodal loads (in millions) aggregated by the three segment categories Total Intermodal Volume Units (000,000) Marine ISO <= 45 >= 48 Volume for 2011 reflects a 5.3% increase in volume from 2010 to Volume for 2011 approached but was still 1.1% below 2006 volume the peak volume year. Volume Growth Since 2001 This chart displays relative growth since 2001 for North American intermodal loads aggregated by the three segment categories. Volume [2001 = 1.00] Total Marine ISO Domes c <= Domes c >= The entire industry (the green bar) grew by 33% from 2001 to However, as discussed in the previous slide, the industry has spent the last five years trying to recover to 2006 levels. Through 2006, the Marine ISO segment (blue line) was the industry growth driver. It was growing faster than the industry through 2006 but now tracks the industry s cumulative total. It is up 36% in this period. Since 2007 the growth driver has been the Domestic 48 segment (red line.) While it closely tracked the industry through 2007, over the past three years it has grown faster than the overall industry. It is up 58% in this period. The Domestic 45 volume (purple line) has declined 64% in this period. Supplement to Intermodal Market Trends IANA

3 This chart displays the share of North American intermodal loads by the three segment categories. Supplement to Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics Total Intermodal Volume 37% 38% 38% 37% 35% 34% 35% 38% 43% 42% 44% 11% 9% 8% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 52% 53% 54% 55% 58% 59% 57% 52% 54% 53% Marine ISO <= 45 >= 48 Since 2006, the Marine ISO market share has decreased slightly although it still represents the majority traffic segment. Over the entire period, the Domestic 45 segment has been losing share and the Domestic 48 segment has been increasing Volume by Equipment This chart decomposes 2011 volume to its core equipment type Units (Millions) Cumula ve % Together, 40 and 53 container volume represents 7 of the total. The difference between the two equipment types is miniscule. 40 containers represent 35.8% and 53 containers represent 34.6%. When the next two largest equipment types are included: 20 containers (15.) and 53 trailers (6.4%), the cumulative share is almost 92%. The intermodal industry seems to have settled on two work horse equipment types both of which rely on the economic advantage of doublestack transportation. Supplement to Intermodal Market Trends IANA

4 2001 Volume by Equipment This chart decomposes 2001 volume into its core equipment types. In contrast to the 2011 distribution, ten years ago, the intermodal industry clearly lacked a definitive equipment standard. Units (Millions) Cumula ve % The 40 container was still the largest equipment type, representing 33.8% of the total; however, there was a great deal more variety after that. The second tier of volume was composed of 20 containers (15.2%) and 48 containers (15.1%). The third tier was composed of 53 containers (9.3%); and, 48 trailers (7.9%). This chart compares the market share change of the different equipment types over eleven years. 25% 2011 Volume vs Volume 2011 Share 2002 Share 15% 5% -5% - -15% 53-foot Container 40-foot Container 53-foot Trailer 20-foot Container 40-foot Trailer 45-foot Container 28-foot Container 28-foot Trailer 48-foot Trailer 45-foot Trailer 48-foot Container Decrease -5.1% -5.5% -14.9% No Change 1.9% 1.6% -0.2% -0.3% -0.7% -0.8% -1.5% Increase 25.4% Most equipment type shares remained the same with changes of ± 2%. Only the share of 53 containers significantly increased in this time period. The share of 48 containers, 48 trailers, and 45 trailers all decreased. The increased share of 53 containers (25%) closely corresponds to the combined share loss of 48 containers, 48 trailers, and 45 trailers. Supplement to Intermodal Market Trends IANA

5 This analysis also aggregates intermodal volume into four geographies in addition to intraregional moves. Geographical Segmentation Geography Regions From Regions To East Coast/Interior EC, NE, SE MC, MW, MX, SC Trans-Con EC, NE, SE NW, SW, WC West Coast/Interior MC, MW, MX, SC NW, SW, WC Case Regions Between North - South Case #1 MC, MW, MX, SC Case #2 NE, SE, EC Case #3 NW, SW, WC 2011 Volume by Region This chart decomposes 2011 volume by region. (The volume is doublecounted because it represents the sum of volume for both origin and destination regions.) Units (Millions) Cumula ve % MW SW SE NE SC EC WC NW MC MX 0 Together, Midwest and Southwest volume represents 48% of total moves. The other six regions represent 5-11% each. Mexico and Mountain Central represent very small amounts. Chicagoland has traditionally been viewed as the intermodal industry s load center and this data indicates that this is unchanged. Supplement to Intermodal Market Trends IANA

6 Domestic 48 This chart analyzes the Domestic 48 segment. The left y-axis (and black line) shows the relative volume. (Year 2001 volume is set at 1.00) The right y-axis (and green vertical bars) shows the segment share of volume. Volume [2001=1.00] % 44% 36% 32% 28% Market Share % 0.00 Share 37% 38% 38% 37% 35% 34% 35% 38% 43% 42% 44% Volume From 2001 to 2011, volume has increased by 58% and market share has grown from 37% to 44%. With the exception of 2010, volume has increased every year. The reason for market share shrinkage in is a reflection of relatively flat volume of this segment while the Marine ISO segment was growing. This chart analyzes the Domestic 48 segment. The left y-axis (and green vertical bars) shows the segment relative volume. (Year 2001 volume is set at 1.00) The right y-axis (and four lines) shows the market share of that equipment and size within this segment. 48 Volume [2002=1.00] Domestic 48 by Equipment Total foot Container 40.8% 35.6% 30.2% 25.7% 20.2% 12.8% 8.8% 5.6% 3.1% 1.2% 0.5% 48-foot Trailer 21.2% 19.8% 18.7% 17.6% 14.7% 14.1% 10.5% 9.7% 8.2% 7.7% 6.3% 53-foot Container % 43.9% 53.5% 63.2% 67.4% 74.9% 77.1% 78.6% 53-foot Trailer % 16.1% 18.2% 21.3% 19.6% 17.5% 17.3% 13.8% % 53 containers have grown from 25% to 79% of this segment; 53 trailers have remained basically unchanged at 13% this segment; 48 containers have shrunk from 41% to 1% of this segment; and, 48 trailers have shrunk from 21% to 6% of this segment; The 53 trailer market has grown with the market but no faster. The resiliency of the 48 trailer might be explained by that segment s accommodation of dense cargo (similar to 45 trailers.) Supplement to Intermodal Market Trends IANA Market Share

7 Marine ISO This chart analyzes the Marine ISO segment. The left y-axis (and black line) shows the relative volume. (Year 2001 volume is set at 1.00) The right y-axis (and green vertical bars) shows the segment share of volume. Volume [2001=1.00] % 56% 52% 48% Market Share % 0.00 Share 52% 53% 54% 55% 58% 59% 57% 52% 54% 53% Volume From 2001 to 2006, volume increased by 55% while market share grew from 52% to. This was followed by a slight decrease in 2007, and precipitous declines in 2008 and Volumes increased in 2010 and 2011 back to 2005 and 2006 levels. Marine ISO by Equipment This chart analyzes the Marine ISO segment. The left y-axis (and green vertical bars) shows the segment relative volume. (Year 2001 volume is set at 1.00) The right y-axis (and three lines) shows the market share of that equipment and size within this segment. Marine ISO Volume [2002=1.00] Market Share 0.80 Volume foot Container 29.3% % 29.4% 29.4% 29.1% % % 40-foot Container 65.3% 66.5% 66.9% 66.3% 66.5% % 67.6% 68.2% 67.6% 45-foot Container 5.4% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% % 4.1% 4.1% 4.6% 3.9% 4. Supplement to Intermodal Market Trends IANA

8 These charts display the share of North American intermodal loads for five geographic corridors within the three equipment segment categories Domestic 48 by Geography Intra-Region West Coast/Interior North/South East Coast/Interior Trans-Con Marine ISO by Geography While the West Coast/Interior (green bar) is universally the largest share, its predominance is clearest in the Marine ISO segment. Within the Marine ISO and Domestic 48 categories, East Coast/Interior and Trans-Con corridor shares are fairly close. In 2010, the former finally exceeded the latter in terms of share. Some have questioned whether intermodal has reached a saturation point in the Trans-Con market. The East Coast/Interior growth reinforces the belief that there are a number of intermodal opportunities therein. The North/South and Intra-Regional corridors occupy niches of varying size. (Except for the general lack of North/ South Marine ISO volume.) It is unknown whether Intra-Region movements are true shorthaul loads or [revenue] empty repositioning. Supplement to Intermodal Market Trends IANA

9 This chart analyzes the Marine ISO segment by calculating the percentage of imports discharged on the U.S. West Coast that move inland by intact intermodal. The results are striking. Source: PMA and IANA Supplement to Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics % Vessel Discharge Intact Intermodal 55% 45% 35% U.S. West Coast Intact Movement 25% 20-Foot 49.7% 49.6% 49.3% 48.9% 49.9% 50.2% 49.6% 49.7% 44.8% 47.7% 48.4% 40-Foot 43.1% 42.5% 41.8% % 43.1% 41.8% 40.1% 36.6% 37.2% 38.5% 45-Foot 56.1% 43.7% 39.6% 38.6% 36.8% 35.4% 32.2% 31.2% 30.6% 29.9% 31.3% The percentage of intact 20 containers has remained fairly stable. The percentage of intact 40 containers has trended down somewhat but at a lower level than 20 containers. The handling of 45 containers has almost completely reversed itself in this period. In 2001, 56% moved intact, but by 2011, only 31% moved intact. These numbers show the impact of transloading. The less dense the commodity and the larger the equipment size the better the economics of transloading. The intact proportion is inversely related to the ability to transload the cargo. This chart is almost the opposite of the previous chart. After deducting intact intermodal and local cargo, the residual is presumed to be transloaded. (A population-based model was utilized to simulate local demand.) Source: PMA and IANA % of Discharge Transloaded 45% 35% 25% 15% U.S. West Coast Transloading Foot 32.8% 30.9% 31.1% 31.5% 31.9% 31.3% 30.3% 30.7% 30.5% 35.2% 32.8% Foot 39.2% 37.4% % 39.5% 38.4% 37.3% 38.5% % 43.1% 41.6% 45-Foot 14.7% 21.8% 34.1% 38.1% 39.1% 40.7% 41.9% 45.2% 46.1% 46.7% 47.3% 45.9% The percentage of transloaded 20 containers has remained fairly stable and relatively low. (Heavy cargo is not conducive to transloading.) The percentage of transloaded 40 containers has remained fairly constant but at a higher level than 20 containers. The percentage of transloaded 45 containers has increased steadily to almost half of discharged volume. Supplement to Intermodal Market Trends IANA

10 Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics Domestic Container Analysis In the absence of a centralized database for all domestic containers, TTX Company has tracked the size of the North American domestic container fleet over the years. TTX does this by surveying all of the industry s fleet owners twice yearly to understand their current fleet size and their projected additions and retirements. N.A. Domestic Container Fleet This chart looks at the growth of the domestic container fleet since 2000 (as measured by the average annual fleet size). The data reflect both retirements and additions. Some highlights: of Containers, Annual Avg. Thousand (F) 48' DC Fleet 53' DC Fleet The North American domestic container fleet has grown by 83% since This represents a compound annual growth rate of just under 6%. The fleet grew in 11 of the past 12 years was the only year during which the fleet shrunk. Even during the depths of the Great Recession in 2009, the fleet grew 2%. The strongest growth year was 2011, when container owners added 11% as the economy recovered and industry share gains continued. In 2000, 48 containers comprised 69% of the total North American fleet. In 2012, the fleet is almost containers. Supplement to Intermodal Market Trends IANA

11 Domestic Container Analysis cont d. Domestic Container Market Share This chart looks at IANA domestic container volume as a share of long-haul truck freight (greater than 550 miles) as estimated by FTR Associates. Share of T Truckloads s > 550 miles 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2000 That share has more than doubled since 2000 from 2.1% to 5.4%. In part, that reflects decline in the overall volume of long haul truck freight. Had that volume held constant at its 2000 level, intermodal share in 2011 would have been 4.3%. Transloading (the movement of imported freight from international to domestic containers for shipment inland by rail) has also contributed to domestic container gains. TTX estimates that 13% of domestic container growth is directly attributable to transloading. Of course, transloading plays an indirect role in a much larger share of domestic container growth through its support of an efficient, continent-wide domestic container network. This chart examines the top growth lanes for domestic containers since The chart shows the ten largest lanes in terms of absolute growth between 2000 and Increa se in Volu me , , , , , ,000 50,000 Top 10 Domestic Container Growth Lanes Combined, these ten lanes account for just shy of two-thirds of all domestic container growth. The average percentage growth of these lanes over the period measured was 256%. The Southeast-Northeast was the largest growth lane on a percentage basis, adding a whopping 633% from 2000 to Two of the top 10 growth lanes Southwest-Midwest and Southwest-South Central are key transload lanes. Supplement to Intermodal Market Trends IANA

12 Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics Domestic Container Analysis cont d. Domestic Container Utilization This chart looks at utilization of the North American domestic container fleet based on the fleet size data described in the container fleet chart and IANA s domestic container volume data. Note that this chart analyzes loads relative to the total fleet rather than the active fleet, so stored containers are in the denominator. Fleet owners may measure utilization differently for their individual fleets Total 48' 53' In recent years, the fleet has averaged just over two loads per month. This, of course, will vary widely depending on both the railroad and the geography of individual loads. As with any fleet, there is an optimal turn time that allows for efficient use of the fleet while meeting customer needs. The utilization of the fleet has trended up over time, and has shown a distinct improvement since the recovery from the 2009 recession. Prior to that, utilization peaked in 2003 as investment in the domestic container fleet lagged the recovery of loadings following the 2001 recession. The most recent cycle followed a different pattern, with very strong investment in the fleet early in the recovery. That resulted in a slight deterioration of utilization in Stronger utilization of 53 containers and erratic results for 48 containers are consistent with the rapidly shrinking role of 48s over the time period examined. Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics Subscriptions and Products Equipment Type, Size and Ownership Data Subscription Now you can receive all the underlying aggregate data used in the compilation of the Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics quarterly analysis report. Available by annual subscription, a monthly data file is ed, furnishing you with the most current information available. Data segmentation is provided in Microsoft Excel files. Benchmark your company s performance on a timely basis and make rapid adjustments to keep pace with changing industry trends. Every month you ll receive a spreadsheet containing a detailed breakdown of monthly traffic: Regional volume flow Various sizes and types of equipment Equipment ownership: whether private or rail-controlled Cumulative data by month Ordering information is available online at or by contacting Tara Mullen at , ext. 366, or tara.mullen@intermodal.org. Supplement to Intermodal Market Trends IANA