Sustaining growth in the air cargo industry

Transcription

1 Sustaining growth in the air cargo industry Payload Asia conference Singapore, October 11, 2017 Presented by: O. von Tronchin - Head of Freighter Marketing, Airbus

2 Contents Assessing cargo demand Long term freight market perspective and trends Products for the cargo market Airbus freighter portfolio

3 Current market situation positive short term outlook Key market indicators International air freight market (Year-to-date) Traffic Capacity Load factor Yields 11.6% 4.1% +3.3% +2.0% Seabury 48.4% +7.9% IATA After many years of stagnation the cargo industry needs to have some good years to generate return on investments 3

4 Long term freight market perspective Airbus 2017 forecast summary 20 year annual FTK growth 20 year demand for aircraft deliveries Business volume for new freighters Proportion of future freighters 3.8% Total New 1, $202bn Small Mid-size Large 23% 48% 29% Source: Airbus GMF

5 World trade growth is closely linked to freight traffic World trade and FTKs year on year growth 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% World Trade FTK -15% Source: Seabury, IATA, IHS Economics, Airbus

6 World trade forecasts have been revised downwards World international trade forecasts (trillion 2010 $US) Historical % % % Forecast Forecast % Forecast % Trade of goods and non-factor services. Source: IHS Economics, Airbus

7 World trade Why is it slowing down? World trade Recent developments: TPP abandoned NAFTA in risk of cancellation Source: A. Lambroso OECD

8 World trade is set to double over 20 years Total international world trade evolution Trillion $US Developing Emerging Advanced History Forecast x2.3 World trade 3.4% average growth over the next 20 years Emerging countries to grow 2.3 times * 54 emerging economies ** 32 advanced economies Source: IHS Economics, Airbus

9 Intra Asia-Pacific to become the largest trade flow International trade forecasts (Trillion $US) Asia-Pacific - Asia-Pacific Europe - Europe Asia-Pacific - North America x2.4 x1.6 x2.4 Regional air trade will larger than East-West flows Asia-Pacific - Europe x2.1 Europe - Asia-Pacific x2.0 North America - Asia-Pacific x2.6 Middle East - Asia-Pacific Europe - North America Latin America - North America Asia-Pacific - Middle East North America - North America North America - Europe North America - Latin America Asia-Pacific - Africa CIS - Europe x2.1 x1.8 x1.9 x2.5 x1.4 x2.2 x1.9 x2.9 x Source: IHS Economics, Airbus

10 Other parameters influencing the Airbus Cargo GMF Industrial production and growing middle-class in emerging countries Growing middle class Private consumption: 46% to come from emerging countries Will drive e- commerce * 54 emerging economies ** 32 advanced economies

11 Global Market Forecast methodology 20 years freighter aircraft demand forecast of jet freighters over 10 tonnes Traffic forecast modeling 150 distinct traffic flows Fleet build-ups covering ~200 freight carriers Freighter fleet divided in 3 segments: Small jet freighters: tonnes Mid-size freighters: tonnes Large freighters: >80 tonnes 11 Source: Airbus GMF 2017

12 Freight traffic will grow by 3.8% over the next 20 years 3.8% world annual FTK growth Traffic growth for main deck and belly: 70% linked to emerging markets

13 1,957 additional freighters required 730 new built freighters to be delivered over the next 20 years Freighter deliveries over the next 20 years 1,200 1, New Built Conversion Market drivers Replacement for US and Europe Large growth in Asia Pacific Small 10t < payload < 30t Mid-size 30t < payload < 80t Large payload > 80t New routes in Middle East, Latin America, Africa for express: > 65% > 70% > 35%

14 The future freighter fleet distribution will reflect the growing influence of emerging markets World fleet: , , North America Latin America Europe & CIS Africa Middle East Asia Pacific 42 Replacement for US and Europe Large growth in Asia Pacific New routes in Middle East, Latin America, Africa North America: Mainly a replacement market Asia Pacific: Freighter fleet will double Source: Airbus GMF 2017, ASCEND

15 Belly capacity will capture more market share from main deck freighters Worldwide share of belly vs dedicated cargo traffic Estimated FTKs (billion) bn FTKs Dedicated freighters Belly cargo 52% Cargo traffic growth 3.8% 61% bn FTKs Belly capacity 4.4% RPK growth 9,300 new widebody passenger aircraft Impact is mainly on long haul flows Assumption: Belly LF remain stable Source: Airbus GMF 2017

16 Express market has been especially performant on the Transpacific routes Asia to North America air cargo traffic Yearly traffic (k-tons) 2,800 2,400 2,000 1,600 1, Express cargo General cargo Total Express market share Doubled to 30% over the last 10 years 0 Express market share % 17% 19% 20% 22% 25% 27% 28% 29% 29% Source: Seabury

17 Focus on the volume driven express market Market General freight market stagnating Vs. Express market growing strongly What s the influence on product development? Source: Seabury

18 Airbus is building up the freighter portfolio 2007 Programs launched A F Entry Into Service 2010 A F Airbus Freighters Over the next four years A330P2F (-200/-300) A320P2F (A320/A321) 3 new freighter programs over the last ten years 2017 A P2F 2018 A P2F 2019 A321P2F 2020 A320P2F 4 new Airbus freighter products will enter service

19 Market segmentation and freighter product offering General freight 747-8F Express Airbus Freighters Large 777F Strong presence in small and mid-sized Mid-size A F A P2F A P2F 767F freighter market A F A320P2F A321P2F Small 737F 757F

20 The express / e-commerce market requires volume optimised freighters Single aisle freighters % Mid-size freighters % Volume driven freighters A321P2F and 400 Base +3% A P2F 150 Base -1% offer 20% and more volume Volume (cu.m.) SF A321P2F A320P2F 200 Volume (cu.m.) ERSF A P2F A P2F Useable volume: Stowability containers 85%, bulk 50%

21 Airbus Freighter strategy 1 st flight last week Strategy Small and midsized freighters based on P2F programs DHL: 8x A P2F on order and 10 commitments to address the volume driven express markets EgyptAir: 3x A P2F on order

22 Summary The short term cargo market outlook is positive The longer term future outlook is closely linked to developments in world trade and the express/e-commerce business Airbus is developing the freighter product portfolio to address these market requirements

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