The Future of Nuclear Market Challenges and Solutions: New Projects, New Products, New Business-Models

Transcription

1 The Future of Nuclear Market Challenges and Solutions: New Projects, New Products, New Business-Models Dzhomart Aliev Director General Rusatom Overseas

2 Rosatom s Global Perspective For Nuclear Energy Development Central & Eastern Europe Canada Russia Korea Western Europe China Africa & Middle East Japan India Rest of Asia Latin America Rosatom's Portfolio, units Top Five 2013 (Ranks I-V) Ranks VI-X The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesn t lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliated 2

3 Key Global Trends: the Rise of China, Africa & Middle East Region Rosatom s Base Case Installed Nuclear Capacity Forecasts, MWe 2013 United States France Japan South Korea China Russia United States France China Japan South Korea Russia China United States France South Korea Japan Russia The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesn t lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliated 3

4 Established nuclear power countries* New Nuclear Projects Form New Market Conditions and New Type of Requirements India Russia China France South Korea Newcomers** Brazil UK Iran Slovakia Pakistan Finland Taiwan Commercial Operation of New Projects Mexico South Africa Czech Republic Romania Netherlands Bulgaria Hungary Finland Ukraine Egypt Jordan Lithuania Nigeria Philippines Thailand Venezuela Vietnam Saudi Arabia Bangladesh UAE Belarus Turkey - Established NSSS Vendors Canada India Russia China France South Korea - NSSS Vendors and NSSS Customers Poland Indonesia Malaysia Australia Chile Belarus Kazakhstan Turkey NEW Conditions Products Businessmodels - NSSS customers Number of countries wishing to include nuclear energy in their energy program is growing, creating competitive environment with new conditions, demand for new products and business-models *Rosatom s Base Case Forecast Excluding New Nuclear Power Counties ** Rusatom Overseas Upper Projections The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesn t lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliated 4

5 New Conditions Suggest Mixed Solutions Conventional Model NSSS-based Model Multi-contract Model Vendor NSSS Vendor Local Suppliers International Suppliers Vendor Local Suppliers Competitors/Partners International Suppliers Customer Vendor s Target Share 80% Customer Vendor s Target Share 50% Country Readiness for Nuclear Power Customer Vendor s Target Share 30% Newcomers Established nuclear power countries Developed nuclear markets In order to meet the demand from all types of customers Supplier has to be ready to propose offers corresponding to each of model in demand The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesn t lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliated 5

6 Global Supply Chain is a Key Element of New Business Models Research Centers with diverse levels of autonomy and operation responsibility Dealers or local independent distributors Provision of services through the local players Effects (direct)* Around 15,000 jobs in peak (9,000 in average) Around $ 15 bn. revenue of local companies Around $ 3,5 bn. tax income of local government Effects (indirect)* 1x10 : 1 job in operating NPP creates 10 jobs in infrastructure Access to vendor s global pipeline (80 units by 2030) * For a typical 4-unit NPP The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesn t lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliated 7

7 New Products: Entering New Competitive Landscape Large capacity (>700 MW) Medium capacity ( MW) Small capacity ( МW) Rosatom Solutions VVER-TOI VVER VVER BN-1200 BN-800 BREST VVER-300 KLT-40S NIKA-70 VBER-300 SVBR-100 VK-300 RITM-200 RUTA-70 VKT-12 Competitors Solutions ACR-1000 АР-1000 ABWR ESBWR Canada EC-6 TWR IRIS HPM ARC-100 SSTAR PRISM Fuji MSR STAR-LM ENHS EM 2 GT-MHR SmAHTR GEMSTAR NuScale mpower W. SMR Hl-SMUR RADIX TPS EPR-1600 CPR-1000 Atmea1 APR-1400 SWR-1000 ACPR-1000 PEACER IMR NP-300 CNP-300 Japan France China Republic of Korea PFBR-500 India LSPR GTHTR ALLEGRO CEFR SMART PHWR MRX Flexblue HTR-PM AHWR300 ANTARES NHR-200 ACP100 CAREM FBNR PBMR Argentina Brazil South Africa Development of S&MR technologies will lead to diversification of supply and the emergence of a range of vendor offers The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesn t lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliated 7 Source: Rusatom Overseas estimates, Rosatom, UxC

8 Emergence of Global Long-Term Demand for Small and Medium Reactors SMR Installed capacity & Market forecast** Small and Medium Reactors Installed Capacity, Gwe Market Forecast, 196 bln1 0 0,2 0 1,1 2,6 1,6 27,7 46, Buy Build Finance Operate Control Non-proliferation Peru Brazil Chile Uruguay Argentina France Morocco Ghana Slovakia Tunisia Nigeria Namibia Jordan Saudi Arabia South Africa Armenia Kazakhstan UAE - Base case* - Upper Case* Russia China India Vietnam Thailand Indonesia Japan S.Korea Malaysia Australia Completely new market with its own rules Great potential for new types of customer Great potential for newcomers Great deal of new designs In order to keep up with the growing pace of the market new regulatory environment is required to accelerate the process of prospective technologies licensing * Rusatom Overseas estimates ** Rosatom Forecasts The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesn t lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliated 8

9 New Competitive Landscape forms Growing Demand for New Contract Models BOO, BOT models have already proved their sustainability in other industries Currently, newcomers are looking for more convenient contract models in order to secure more international involvement Under BOO, BOT supplier has an opportunity to bring the following advantages to a new market: Operational experience Sustainable NPP maintenance Spent fuel take-back option Decommissioning Key advantage of BOO, BOT model: Financial risks are shared by a supplier and a customer Operational risks are mitigated more effectively Potential Number of NPP Units in Commercial Operation under BOO, BOT Contract Models* Rosatom Case Financing scope and parameters may be widely granted by the Russian vendor depending on different factors, i.e. country creditworthiness, Rosatom s equity share, volume of Russian equipment supply, presence of co-operation on other projects, etc. Rosatom is the first to become NPP operator in a foreign country; Thus, a unique proposition with very low financing costs could be achieved * Based on Rusatom Overseas Upper Case Estimates The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesn t lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliated 9

10 Rosatom is Able to Meet any New Customer Demand by Adjusting to the New Market Requirements Product Line Rosatom offers a full range of reactor capacities - from Large Capacity VVERs to Small Capacity SVBRs. Bild Own Operate Model Republic of Turkey - Akkuyu NPP Large capacity (>700 MW) Medium capacity ( MW) Small capacity ( МW) Reactor type: VVER-1200 VVER-TOI VVER-1200 VVER-1000 BREST VVER-300 KLT-40S NIKA-70 VBER-300 SVBR-100 VK-300 Total capacity: MWt Construction years: BN-1200 RUTA-70 BN-800 RITM-200 Akkuyu NPP the first BOO project overseas Integrated Solution Localization Rosatom offers complete solution from uranium supplies to NPP construction operation and decommissioning Mining Gas centrifuges manufacturing Spent nuclear fuel treatment Fuel fabrication Conversion and enrichment Power Generation Research and development NPPs engineeringpower equipment & construction and services Rosatom has a long-lasting experience in equipment production and services localization and sourcing Local supplier s share in equipment and services supply LOVIISA Finland KUDANKULAM India % 39% 2011 New proposals for EU countries are based on AES-2006 design Up to 70% 10

11 Thank You for Attention! Dzhomart Aliev Director General Rusatom Overseas Phone: