World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

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1 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report of Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chairing Agency Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Service Farm Service Agency Agricultural Marketing Service

2 Links to the latest WASDE related publications Office of the Chief Economist World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) WASDE: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Secretary's WASDE Briefing Slides Foreign Ag Service: World Agricultural Production Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin US Drought Monitor ( in cooperation with NOAA and NDMC)

3 World Wheat Production Country or Region estimate 2018/2019 forecast November Million Tons World United States Foreign Argentina Canada Australia European Union Turkey Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan China India Northwest Africa No change.

4 Australia: Wheat 2018 Growing Season Summary Timely rains in the west led to good yielding crops, helping to partially offset losses elsewhere. Drought plagued the east the entire growing season, resulting in very poor yielding crops. As the season progressed, the dryness expanded into the south, significantly reducing yield prospects.

5 35000 Australia wheat production and yield Wheat Prod'000 Tons Yield tons per hectare / / / / / / / / / / /2019 (Dec) AS Wheat Prod AS Wheat Yield 0.00

6 World Wheat Supply and Use 2018/2019 Item Estimate November 8 Forecast November Million Tons Beginning stocks ** Production ** Total Supply 1,024.1 ** 1, Feed use Total use Trade ** Ending Stocks ** Rounds to zero.

7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand Item estimate 2018/2019 forecast November 8 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Million bushels Beginning stocks 1,181 1, Production 1,740 1, Imports Total supply 3,078 3, Food use Seed Feed and residual Domestic use 1,078 1, Exports 901 1, Total use 1,979 2, Ending stocks 1, Percent Stocks to use ratio Dollars per bushel Average market price / No change.

8 World Rice Production 2018/2019 Country or Region Estimate November 8 Forecast November Million Tons World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil ** Egypt Australia Bangladesh Burma Cambodia China India Indonesia Japan Sri Lanka Pakistan ** Philippines Thailand Vietnam No change. ** Rounds to zero.

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10 During the past 9 months, rainfall has averaged approximately 50% of normal in major rice producing areas, leading to a steady reduction in irrigation supplies. Percent of Normal Rainfall Mar Nov, 2018

11 Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland) MDB Water storage : August 2012 to November 28, 2018 Nov % Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 29 November 2018 by 136 gigalitres (GL) to 10,537 GL and are at 47 per cent of total capacity. This is 22 percent (5,029 GL) less than at the same time last year. Nov Source: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) Weekly Water Update

12 Surface water trade activity, Southern Murray-Darling Basin November 26, 2009 to November 19, 2018 Volume weighted average price ($/ML) Volume traded The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects value weighted average prices for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin. Data shown is current until Thursday 19 November The data source has changed for this output. Data is now sourced from the BOM water dashboard Nov 19, 2018 Nov 26, 2009 Nov 19, 2017 Source: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) Weekly Water Update

13 Australia Rice Irrigated Fields: 2017 vs irrigated fields severe reduction in irrigations New South Wales New South Wales Victoria Victoria Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis IPA Division

14 Australia Rice Area and Yield Rice P,A ' AS Rice Area AS Rice Yield Yield tons per hectare Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis IPA Division

15 World Rice Supply and Use Item 2018/2019 Estimate November 8 Forecast November Million Tons Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Total use Trade Ending Stocks

16 U.S. Rice Supply and Demand Item estimate 2018/2019 forecast November 8 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) 7,507 7, Million cwt Beginning stocks Production Imports Total supply Domestic use Exports Total use Ending stocks Percent Stocks to use ratio Dollars per cwt Average market price / No change.

17 Country or Region World Corn Production estimate 2018/2019 forecast November Million Tons World 1, , United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Mexico Canada European Union Serbia FSU Ukraine Russia South Africa China India No change.

18 South Africa Corn Production Major Production Region (along Northwest/Free State border) Data Sources: 1). Percentage value indicates percent province production of total average production ( ). 2). District corn production from 2007 Census of Commercial Agriculture, Statistics South Africa. Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis International Production Assessment Division

19 2017/18 Average 2018/19 Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

20 Average 2017/ /19 Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

21 Optimal Maize Planting Window January 7 th is optimal planting cut-off date. Data Source: Optimal Maize Planting Window; Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis International Production Assessment Division

22 World Corn Supply and Use Item 2018/2019 Estimate November 8 Forecast November Million Tons Beginning stocks ** Production 1, , Total Supply 1, , Feed use Total use 1, , Trade Ending Stocks ** Rounds to zero.

23 U.S. Corn Supply and Demand Item estimate 2018/2019 forecast November 8 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Million bushels Beginning stocks 2,293 2, Production 14,604 14, Imports Total supply 16,934 16, Feed and residual 5,298 5, Food, seed, and industrial 7,058 7, Ethanol 5,605 5, Domestic use 12,355 12, Exports 2,438 2, Total use 14,793 15, Ending stocks 2,140 1, Percent Stocks to use ratio Dollars per bushel Average market price / No change.

24 World Soybean Production Country or Region 2018/2019 Estimate November 8 Forecast November Million Tons World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Paraguay ** Canada India China No change.

25 * State-Level Production (as % of total) Mato Grosso Parana Rio Grande do Sul Goias Mato Grosso do Sul Minas Gerais Bahia Sao Paulo Maranhao Santa Catarina Tocantins Other Source: IBGE Brazil ~3 Brazil Soybeans Acre ~60% Amazonas Roraima Rondonia Aw: Tropical wet and dry * 2009 to 2013 Average Cr: Subtropical Rain ~40% Para Mato Grosso Mato Grosso do Sul Amapa Tocantins Goias Sao Paulo a Ceara b Rio Grande do Norte c Paraiba d Pernambuco e Alagoas f Sergipe h Espirito Santo i Rio de Janeiro Maranhao Piaui Minas Gerais i a Bahia h d f b e c Soybean crop calendar for most of Brazil Planting Flower Fill Harvesting AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL Santa Catarina Parana Rio Grande do Sul Soybean Production *Average ( ) Minor Production Intensity *Source: IBGE Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Major

26 Brazil: Annual Area Changes for Soybeans and Corn 4,000 Thousand Hectares 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Soybeans Corn (1st crop) 1,920 1, ,240 1, ,000-2,000-3, / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /18 *2018/19 Sources: CONAB, *USDA Forecast Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis IPA Division

27 MODIS 8-day NDVI and Rainfall for Soybean Areas of Brazil Eastern Mato Grosso (37% of Mato Grosso s soybean production) Cumulative rainfall is above normal since early November, and has surpassed 2017/18 season. Planting rate was similar to rest of the state in the southeast and slower in the northeast. NDVI indicates that since the start of the season crop is developing ahead of last year and ahead of average. Northeast, 16% of Mato Grosso Production (IMEA) MODIS NDVI (8-day) Anomaly Nov 25-Dec Soybean Production average (tons) Cumulative Rainfall in eastern Mato Grosso Oct 1 to Dec 31 Southeast, 20% of Mato Grosso Production (IMEA) Reduced Data Sample Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis IPA Division Source: MODIS NDVI 8-day & SPAM-IIASA 2005 Soybean Mask, NASA/GSFC/GIMMS, USDA/FAS/IPAD Source: World Meteorological Organization

28 MODIS 8-day NDVI and Rainfall for Soybean Areas of Brazil Rio Grande do Sul (14% of Brazil soybean production) Cumulative rainfall is above normal since early November, and has surpassed 2017/18 season. Planting rate was similar to rest of the state in the southeast and slower in the northeast. NDVI indicates that since the start of the season crop is developing ahead of last year and ahead of average. Rio Grande do Sul, 14% of Brazil Soybean Production MODIS NDVI (8-day) Anomaly Nov 25-Dec Soybean Production average (tons) Cumulative Rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul Oct 1 to Dec 31 Source: MODIS NDVI 8-day & SPAM-IIASA 2005 Soybean Mask, NASA/GSFC/GIMMS, USDA/FAS/IPAD Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis IPA Division Source: World Meteorological Organization

29 Brazil Soybeans Thousand Hectares or Metric Tons 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Record production forecast for 2018/19 due to higher yield AREA 36.2 mha (RECORD) YIELD 3.37 mt/ha PROD mmt (RECORD) / / / / / / / / / / /19F Metric Ton/Hectare Area Production Yield Source: USDA FAS PSD Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis IPA Division

30 ~ 10 Days Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

31 Brazil Soybeans 2016/ /19 Planting (Percent Completed) Percent Planted v Cropsignal chart planting and harvest by area rather than % Equivalent production end Jan, end Feb, end Mar Source: Safras e Mercado Crop Signal Data Mgmt and Modeling by GDA Corp Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis IPA Division

32 Brazil Soybeans Projected 2019 Weekly Harvest Output (Jan to mid-feb) Million Metric Tons Jan 04 Jan 11 Jan 18 Jan 25 Feb 01 Feb 08 Feb Projected Output based on harvest rate in 2017 (analog year for planting rate) 2019 Projected Output based on 5-year average ( ) harvest rate Source: USDA FAS, Historical Harvest Progress Data by Safras e Mercado, Data Mgmt by GDA Corp Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis IPA Division

33 World Soybean Supply and Use Item 2018/2019 Estimate November 8 Forecast November Million Tons Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Crush Total use Trade ** Ending Stocks Addendum Beginning stocks Argentina plus Brazil Imports* China *From all sources. ** Rounds to zero.

34 U.S. Soybeans Supply and Demand Item estimate 2018/2019 forecast November 8 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Million bushels Beginning stocks Production 4,411 4, Imports Total supply 4,734 5, Crush 2,055 2, Seed and Residual Domestic use 2,167 2, Exports 2,129 1, Total use 4,296 4, Ending stocks Percent Stocks to use ratio Dollars per bushel Average market price / No change.

35 Country or Region World Cotton Production estimate 2018/2019 forecast November Million bales World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Turkey Australia China India Pakistan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan African Franc Zone No change.

36 Brazil: Cotton Production Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis IPA Division

37 Cotton Planting Start Dates (2018) Dec 1 Dec 1 Nov 1 Nov 10 Jan 20* Oct 10 Nov 20 Nov 20 *Start date varies by location Source: CONAB Crop Signal Data Mgmt and Modeling by GDA Corp Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis IPA Division

38 1,600 1,400 Brazil Cotton Area and Yield Thousand Hectares 1,200 1, Kilogram/hectare 1992/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /19F Mato Grosso Area (CONAB) Brazil Area (USD PSD) Bahia Area (CONAB) Brazil Yield (USDA PSD) Sources: USDA FAS PSD, CONAB (State Area Estimates), Mato Grosso and Bahia produce nearly 88 percent of Brazil Cotton. Mato Grosso is expected to surpass last year s record, rising for the 4 th consecutive year. Bahia is forecast to have the highest area in 6 years. Brazil Cotton Area is forecast at 1.4 million hectares, the highest in 8 years; yield is forecast at 1711 kg/ha, above the record high set last year. Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis IPA Division

39 World Cotton Supply and Demand Item estimate 2018/2019 forecast November Million bales Beginning stocks ** Production Total Supply Consumption Trade Ending Stocks Addendum China ending stocks

40 U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand Item estimate 2018/2019 forecast November 8 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (pounds per acre) Million bales Beginning stocks Production Imports ** Total supply Mill use ** 0.08 Exports Total use ** Unaccounted Ending stocks Percent Stocks to use ratio Cents per pound Average market price / No change. ** Rounds to zero.

41 U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand Item estimate 2018/2019 forecast November Thousand short tons, raw value Beginning Stocks 1,876 1, Production 9,293 8, Beets 5,279 4, Cane 4,014 4, Imports 3,277 3, TRQ 1,663 1,564 ** -99 Re-export Mexico 1,223 1, High-tier Total Supply 14,445 13, Exports Domestic deliveries 12,185 12, Total use 12,497 12, Ending stocks 1,948 1, Percent Stocks/use ratio No change. ** Rounds to zero.

42 Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand Item estimate 2018/2019 forecast November Thousand metric tons Beginning Stocks 1,002 1, Production 6,010 6, Imports Total Supply 7,216 7, Domestic Use 4,723 4, Exports 1,099 1, Total use 5,822 6, Ending stocks 1,395 1, No change.

43 U.S. Meat Production and Prices Item Estimate November 8 Forecast November Production Billion Pounds Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total Meat Prices Dollars per cwt Steers Hogs Cents per pound Broilers Turkey No change.

44 Item Estimate U.S. Meat Trade Million Pounds November 8 Forecast November Exports Beef 3, , Pork 5, , Broilers 7, , Turkey Mature chickens Total Meat 16, , Imports Beef 3, , No change.

45 Weekly Federally Inspected Dairy Cow Slaughter ,000 Head Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

46 Item U.S. Milk Supply and Demand Estimate November 8 Forecast November Billion pounds Production Fat Basis Imports Commercial use Exports Skim-solid Basis Imports 5.4 ** Commercial use Exports ** -1.2 ** Rounds to zero.

47 Item U.S. Dairy Product Prices Estimate November 8 Forecast November Product prices Dollars per pound Cheese ** Butter 2.26 ** 2.26 ** ** Nonfat dry milk 0.79 ** Dry whey 0.34 ** Class prices Dollars per cwt Class III Class IV All milk No change. ** Rounds to zero.

48 Item U.S. Production Summary 2018/2019 Estimate November 8 Forecast November 8 Crops and Products Wheat (million bushels) 1, , Rice (million cwt) Corn (million bushels) 14, , Sorghum (million bushels) ** Barley (million bushels) Oats (million bushels) Soybeans (million bushels) 4, , Soybean oil (million pounds) 23, , Soybean meal (thousand s.t.) 49, , Cotton (million bales) Sugar (thousand s.t., raw value) 9, , Milk (billion pounds) Meat (billion pounds) Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total Meat No change.

49 U.S. Domestic Consumption Summary Item 2018/2019 Estimate November 8 Forecast November 8 Crops and Products Wheat (million bushels) 1, , Rice (million cwt) Corn (million bushels) 12, , Sorghum (million bushels) Barley (million bushels) Oats (million bushels) Soybeans (million bushels) 2, , Soybean oil (million pounds) 21, , Soybean meal (thousand s.t.) 34, , ,117 Cotton (million bales) ** 0.08 Sugar (thousand s.t., raw value) 12, , Milk (billion pounds, fat basis) Meat (Billion pounds) Beef Pork Broilers Turkey 5.32 ** ** Total Meat No change. ** Rounds to zero.

50 Item U.S. Export Summary 2018/2019 Estimate November 8 Forecast November 8 Crops and Products Wheat (million bushels) , Rice (million cwt) Corn (million bushels) 2, , Sorghum (million bushels) Soybeans (million bushels) 2, , Soybean oil (million pounds) 2, , Soybean meal (thousand s.t.) 14, , ,076 Cotton (million bales) Meat (Million lbs) Beef 3, , Pork 5, , Broilers 7, , Turkey Mature Chickens Total Meat 16, , No change.

51 Item Price Summary 2018/2019 Estimate November 8 Forecast November 8 Crops and products Wheat ($/bu) Rice ($/cwt) Corn ($/bu) Soybeans ($/bu) Soybean oil ( /lb) Soybean meal ($/s.t.) Cotton ( /lb) Livestock Steers ($/cwt) Hogs ($/cwt) Broilers ( /lb) Turkeys ( /lb) Dairy products Cheese ($/lb) ** Butter ($/lb) 2.26 ** 2.26 ** ** Nonfat dry milk ($/lb) 0.79 ** Dry whey ($/lb) 0.34 ** Milk classes Class III ($/cwt) Class IV ($/cwt) All milk ($/cwt) No change. ** Rounds to zero.