FUTURE TRENDS FOR AUTOMOTIVE LOGISTICS 2025

Transcription

1 FUTURE TRENDS FOR AUTOMOTIVE LOGISTICS 2025 Automotive Logistics Europe 2018, Bonn Dr. Christian Schwede, Head of department at Fraunhofer Institute of Material Flow and Logistics (IML) Fraunhofer Slide 1

2 Digitization is changing our world radically Speaking led to tribal society Writing led to antique high culture Printing led to modern society Digitization will lead to next society Dirk Baecker: Studien zur nächsten Gesellschaft. Suhrkamp Verlag, Frankfurt am Main Fraunhofer Slide 2

3 Pictures of the future Heading towards the Social Networked Industry Human beings and their global responsibility Smart Finance Adaptable value creation networks Intelligent connected Supply Cellular Logistics Human being in focus Fraunhofer Slide 3

4 Human beings and their global responsibility Transparency for the individual consume Increasing individualisation of customer behaviour Customers decisions are influenced by ecological and social footprints of the product/ service Sharing economy and democratic decentral approaches become more and more successful Transparency of origin including transport chain is a must Fraunhofer Slide 4

5 Cellular Logistics Flexibility through decentralism, autonomy and digital connections Variants, shorter order-todelivery times and global supply nets make stable predictions every time harder Digital connected decentral-organised logistics systems copes with complexity in real-time and adapts quickly to changing conditions Fraunhofer Slide 5

6 Industrie 4.0 Maturity Level Business Value Maturity Level: What is Industrie 4.0 and what not! How can autonomous reaction take place? Self-optimizing What will happen? Being prepared What does happen? Seeing Why does it happen? Understanding Industrie 4.0 Computerisation Connectivity Visibility Transparency Predictability Adaptability Industry 3.0 Industry 4.0 Schuh, G.; Anderl, R.; Gausemeier, J.; ten Hompel, M.; Wahlster, W (Eds.): Industrie 4.0 Maturity Index, acatech STUDY Development Path Fraunhofer Slide 6

7 Problems of mixed-model assembly lines nowadays Managing unpredictable situation with an inflexible system Manpower in planning and control Resequencing, rework Technical problems and overloads lead to stop of the whole assembly line Assembly sequence racks Re-sequencing assembly time racks Overload Cycle time (e.g. 90 seconds) assembly time Workstation boundaries Floater Quality analysis Throughput time (e.g. 2-3 days) Rework (e.g. quota 40%, duration 1-2 days) Distribution rows (buffer time 2 days) Huge stocks in distribution logistics due to instability Production of stock orders without customers to fill the capacity gabs Fraunhofer Slide 7

8 Autonomous decentral Industrie Assembly Flexible sequence of assembly processes Failures and disruptions only have local effects Capacities are adaptable to the demand Order can be prioritised and steered due to current situations Part delivery is disrupted waiting truck for a certain destination Assembly priority chart Part container Demanddriven (individual parts) On demand AGV Market Place Consumptiondriven parts (common parts) Size, value, variety KanBan racks Station with various abilities Workstation racks Workstation Large to small load carrier Rework performed by regular Workstations Cycle independent throughput times LLC storage racks Quality analysis Distribution rows transport assignment criteria for AGV Fraunhofer Slide 8

9 Autonomous decentral Industrie Assembly Flexible sequence of assembly processes Failures and disruptions only have local effects Capacities are adaptable to the demand Order can be prioritised and steered due to current situations Part delivery is disrupted Waiting truck for a certain destination Assembly priority chart Part container Demanddriven (individual parts) On demand AGV Market Place Consumptiondriven parts (common parts) Size, value, variety KanBan racks Station with various abilities Workstation racks Workstation Large to small load carrier Rework performed by regular Workstations Cycle independent throughput times LLC storage racks Quality analysis Distribution rows transport assignment criteria for AGV Fraunhofer Slide 9

10 SMART FACE Automotive Assembly of the future Assembly lines do not fit to ever-changing short-term demands Complex products and global supply make disruptions the standard scenario After work and resequencing become normality Fraunhofer Slide 10

11 Industrie Audi, VW and BMW Fraunhofer Slide 11

12 Smart Finance Next steps to the internet-of-things Extended autonomy of things and services Real-Time synchronisation of material and financial flows Autonomous negotiations of things using Smart Contracts Decentralised management of transactions with in the blockchain Fraunhofer Slide 12

13 Smart Contracts Can robots make business decisions? 1200! Can a thing make a contract? Can parts of contracts become standardised, to be negotiated by a program? What strategies would be successful in such a digital business world? Would such an decentralized organisation be efficient?? Fraunhofer Slide 13

14 Human worker focused Digital Assistance the industry of tomorrow The digital connection of everything includes also the human worker as most important element of the value chain Digital Human-Machine- Interfaces integrate the human into the Internet-of-things and support every action with realtime information Human-centric and ergonomic design of such processes and technology is a most important success criteria Fraunhofer Slide 14

15 Augmented Reality algorithms work, yet industry-proofed hardware still missing Fraunhofer Slide 15

16 Virtual Reality -based training for Logistics Training in the virtual warehouse The learner slips into the role of Nick the Picker Getting to know layouts and tools Training of process understanding, quality awareness, safety aspects Analysis and sensitization regarding ergonomics No impairment of operative processes Reduced training time Motivating and mobile Fraunhofer Slide 16

17 Collaborative Intralogistics planning with AR/VR Adapt Layouts in the real Warehouse via AR-glasses in real-time Connect directly with planning experts from all over the world in a Virtual Reality that is synchronised in real-time Transfer changes made in VR into the real world via AR-glasses and validate them Fraunhofer Slide 17

18 Future vision: Social Networked Industry

19 4 theses about the future of work to discuss I. Autonomous robots already enter our shop floors. We have to discuss and decide how humans and robots will work together! II. Autonomous robots will change how we work fundamentally if our employees don t participate in the design of future work we will lose them! III. Digitisation doesn t create transparency by itself. It has to be generated by us through information systems! IV. Some jobs will disappear. We have to enforce digital abilities of all our employees by formation! Top: Buttom: Fraunhofer IFF Fraunhofer Slide 19

20 CONTACT Fraunhofer-Institut for Material Flow and Logistics Dr.-Ing. Christian Schwede Head of Department Information logistics and Decision Support Systems Fraunhofer IML Joseph-von-Fraunhofer-Str Dortmund Tel.: +49 (0) Mobile: +49 (0) Fraunhofer Slide 20