TransPlan TransPlan v1 for CMC area (1995) TransPlan v2 for Western Province (1998) TransPlan v3 for A & B Sri Lanka (2001) TransPlan v4 for A & B Sri

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1 TransPlan V5 Traffic Forecasting Model Amal S. Kumarage University of Moratuwa 2005

2 TransPlan TransPlan v1 for CMC area (1995) TransPlan v2 for Western Province (1998) TransPlan v3 for A & B Sri Lanka (2001) TransPlan v4 for A & B Sri Lanka (2003) with GIS TransPlan v5 for A & B Sri Lanka with updated database (2004-5)

3 Features of TransPlan Physical road condition by links and nodes Socioeconomic data on DS division Traffic flow estimates by link for any present or future scenario Network efficiency parameters to investigate contribution of road improvements.

4 Map DSD with road network

5 Physical Road Conditions by road link

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7 Link Features Link Number Side Walk Width Road Classification Number Shoulder Width Road Name Land Use Frontage Start Node Characteristics Parking Road Width Special Land Marks Center Median Width Crossings across the link Road Roughness End Node Characteristics Link Length Maximum Free Flow Speed Gradient of the link Travel Time Curvature of the Link Number of Entrances/Exits (Motorable)

8 Physical road conditions by node

9 Road Width Shoulder Width ROW Width Pavement Condition & Surface Type Curvature & Gradient Land Use Acquisition & Environmental Moving Car Traffic Observation Free Flow Speed Travel Time Photo Logging GPS locations for intersections, km post, bridges Fatal Accidents (2001 & 2002) Road Roughness

10 Equipment Used Bump Integrator Farnell Survey Data Management Software Global Positioning System (GPS) Digital Camera Odometer

11 Roads Lengths in Transplan kms Data Completed and entered in database Field Data not accessible RDA ROADS (SUB TOTAL) 11, Municipal Roads (approx)

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13 J:\GIS_NPD\Cross Junction. jpg

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15 Socio-economic Data on DSD

16 Socioeconomic Data Name DSNum Population Area Households Motorbikes Three wheel Car Dual Purpose StateSectJobs ProvPublicjobs SemiGovJobs Labour Force Unemployment R_City A_City T_City Airport InCMC Build_Mat_1 Build_Mat_2 District Capital Container FTZ Description Divisional Secretariat No Population Area Number of house holds Number of Registered Motorbikes Number of registered Three wheel Number of Registered cars Number of Duel purpose vehicles Number of State Sector Jobs Number of Public jobs Number of Semi Government jobs Number of Labour force Number of Unemployment If DSDivision is a Religious City If DSDivision an Ancient City If DSDivision is atourist City If DSDivision is an Airport If DSDivision is In CMC Area Building Materials End1 Building Materials End2 If DSDivision is a District Capital If DSDivision is a Container Yard If it has a Free Trade Zone

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18 Traffic flow estimates by link for any present or future scenar

19 Forecasting Model ODs (presently 50 locations used) Models Calibrated OD Matrix Inter DSD Vehicle Trip Models Private Vehicles (presently 3 types) Freight Vehicles (presently 1 type) Intra DSD Vehicle Trip Model All Vehicles (presently 1 type)

20 OD Locations

21 Link Flow Free Flow Speed Node Flow Link Width

22 Network efficiency parameters to investigate contribution of road improvements.

23 Network Performance Indicators No. of Trips: These refer to the number of vehicle trips that are made daily on the national network. Under the Base Case there are 801,285 one way trips that are made daily. No. of Veh Kms: This refers to the summation of all the kms run by the vehicles undertaking these trips. In the Base Case, this is 23.3 billion kms per day. This then turns out to be around 29 kms per trip. No. of Veh. Hrs:The number of vehicle hours that the network is occupied is given by this statistic. This is the multiplication of the number of vehicles by the amount of time spent on the network. Thus under the Base Case, this is 789,318 veh hrs. This then translates to around 59 minutes per vehicle on the national network. Network Speed: The network speed is the division of the network vehicle kms by the network vehicle hours. This can be considered as the average speed at which vehicles will travel on the national network. In the Base Case this is 29.4 kms per hour.

24 Selected Project BCA Calculation for Project 1

25 Future Traffic Estimates TransPlan calculates future traffic estimates on the basis of: Socioeconomic: Transport Policy: Highway Network:

26 Vehicle Ownership Growth Rates Is based on Socioeconomic and Transport Policy Economic Growth Rate (% p.a.) Condition of Public Transport High = 5.5% Medium = 4% Low = 3% Translates to Vehicle Ownership Growth (% p.a.) Improved from Present Condition 6.0% p.a. 5.0% p.a. 3.5% p.a. Present Condition Remains 7.5% p.a. 6.0% p.a. 4.0% p.a. Deteriorates from Present Condition 9.0% p.a. 7.0% p.a. 5.0% p.a.

27 Analysis of Improvements when network additions are made No. of New trips: This is taken by deducting the no. of trips after the construction of the new road and the Base Case. For example, the construction of the Southern Highway shows the number of trips increasing by 38,059 per day. Savings in Vehicle Kms: This refers to the savings in the distance traveled by the existing traffic per day. This can be taken by assuming new trips to also be the same average distance and by calculating the total reduction observed in the output. For the Southern Highway, the reduction in distance traveled by existing traffic is estimated at 761,384 vehicle kms.

28 Total Savings: In order to avoid a detailed calculation which is not within the scope of the analysis at this stage of the study, by equating the discounting rate to the traffic growth rate, we can simplify the calculation to assess the lifetime benefits. Assuming a project life time of 15 years and 365 traffic days per year. Thus for the Southern Highway this will be Rs 96.1bn. This is of course a back of the envelop type of calculation and should only be used as an approximate indicator.

29 Output from TransPlan Model (annual savings) note -all figures are fictitious New Highway Savings in Savings in Savings in Rs Veh kms Veh hrs (mn) CKE ,400 Kandy Road ,300 Southern Highway ,800 Outer Circular ,700 Baseline Ext ,400