NEXT-ITS Evaluation Report

Transcription

1 NEXT-ITS NEXT-ITS Evaluation Report Final version Version: 1.0 Date: January 2016 Distribution level: Public Status: Validated by PMB

2 Version Control Version Date Author Description NEXT-ITS Evaluation team First Draft NEXT-ITS Evaluation team Draft NEXT-ITS Evaluation team Draft NEXT-ITS Evaluation team Draft NEXT-ITS Evaluation team Draft NEXT-ITS Evaluation team Draft NEXT-ITS Evaluation team Draft NEXT-ITS Evaluation team Draft NEXT-ITS Evaluation team Draft NEXT-ITS Evaluation team Draft NEXT-ITS Evaluation team Draft NEXT-ITS Evaluation team Final Draft NEXT-ITS Evaluation team Final Next-ITS Evaluation Team Lone Dörge Ida Kristoffersson Risto Kulmala Merja Penttinen Christian Lüpges Håkon Wold Martin Ström Gunnar Lind Genua Consult (Chair), DK Sweco, SE Finnish Transport Agency, FI VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, FI Albrecht Consult, DE ViaNova Plan og Trafikk, NO Swedish Transport Administration, SE Movea, SE 2

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Key results 6 2. Description of the Problem Site Issues Addressed Description of the ITS Project Service Area Key Words Objectives Systems and Technologies Applied Costs Status of the Project Evaluation Planned Timing and Type of Evaluation Objectives for the Evaluation Research Questions Study Area for the Evaluation SERVICE LEVELS AND KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS FOR MEASURES IN NEXT-ITS QUALITY LEVEL DEFINITIONS KPI S FOR SERVICE LEVEL ASSESSMENT KPI S FOR COVERAGE AND IMPACTS Expected Impacts 18 3

4 4.6. Expected Methods Results and the Impact of the Project Technical Performance Results REFERENCE SITUATION: CORRIDOR STATISTICS DEPLOYMENT KPIS RESULTS USER STATISTICS BENEFIT KPIS - RESULTS Reliability of Results SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Overall Assessment European Dimension: Transferability of the Results 32 References 33 Annex 1: Technical Annex 35 Selected Indicators 35 Data Collection Methods 36 Comparison of National Unit Values 38 Overview 39 Annex 2: National input and Networks for Benefit Calculations 39 Danish network for the benefit calculations 39 Swedish networks for benefit calculations 45 4

5 Finnish networks for the benefit calculations 54 Norwegian network for the benefit calculations 63 German network for the benefit calculations 67 Annex 3: Comparison of Service Level Criteria definitions to EIP+ 70 5

6 1. Key results This report contains the NEXT-ITS evaluation performed within the project by the NEXT-ITS evaluation team. The NEXT-ITS project is co-financed by the European Union, Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T). The main objective of the project is to improve the performance of the NEXT-ITS corridor i.e. to improve the efficiency, reliability and safety of the corridor as well as to reduce the environmental impacts this is to be done primarily through a Coordinated deployment of core European traffic information services in response to the Priority Actions b) and c) of the ITS Directive. The NEXT-ITS corridor covers the Northern part of the Scandinavian-Mediterranean CEF corridor from Oslo and the Finnish-Russian border in the north via Copenhagen, Hamburg and Bremen to Hanover in Germany. The total length of the corridor is 2834 km. The report structure is following the EasyWay Guidelines for Evaluation and reporting. The report is also a contribution to the European ITS Platform evaluation activity (EIP+ A5) in order to support the global EIP+ Evaluation Final Report which is to cover results on all the corridor projects performed The key results in the project are the deployments and the benefits achieved: The coverage/deployment KPIs for the NEXT-ITS corridor show the change in coverage of ITS services with the minimum level of service and quality as defined by NEXT-ITS (table below). Table 8: Coverage of ITS services with the minimum level of service and quality, end of 2012 and 2015 End of End of End of End of NEXT-ITS Corridor length 2833, Length km % Length km % RT 2.1 Traffic condition 596,7 21,1 2618,5 92,4 RT 2.2 Travel Time 100,0 3,5 993,4 35,1 RT 2.3 Weather information 2341,1 82,6 2624,4 92,6 SR 1.1 Temporary slippery road 492,4 17,4 1394,6 49,2 SR 1.2 Obstacles on the road 501,9 17,7 1090,1 38,5 SR 1.3 Unprotected accident area 501,9 17,7 1090,1 38,5 SR 1.4 Short term road works 492,4 17,4 2164,6 76,4 SR 1.5 Reduced visibility 492,4 17,4 1277,6 45,1 SR 1.6 Unmanaged blockage of road 501,9 17,7 1090,1 38,5 SR 1.7 Exceptional weather conditions 492,4 17,4 1394,6 49,2 The End of 2015 figures show the deployment situation after the NEXT-ITS project has ended. The End of 2012 figures show the situation at the start of the project. As can be seen the project has substantially improved the coverage of real-time as well as safety related traffic information on the corridor. 6

7 The next tables sum up the impacts of the NEXT-ITS services in each country, and their national networks affected by the services. Table 10: The total impacts of NEXT-ITS services in the national networks. Total annual impacts Impacts in absolute numbers DE DK FI NO SE Total Vehicle hours driven (million/year) -0,67-0,30-0,44-0,018-0,33-1,8 Vehicle hours spent in congestion (1000/year) , Fatalities (number/year) -0,27-0,17-0,24 0,000-0,18-0,87 Injury accidents (number/year) -13,7-1,6-4,4-0,21-11,3-31 CO2 emissions (kilotonnes/year) -35-6, , In Table 11, the monetary value of the impacts has been transformed to benefits expressed in million Euros utilising the national unit values for the different impacts. Table 11: The benefits i.e. the monetary value of the NEXT-ITS impacts on the national networks in million. Total annual benefits Monetary value in M (using national unit values) DE DK FI NO SE Total Vehicle hours driven 8,6 7,3 5,7 0,4 6,9 28,9 Vehicle hours spent in congestion 1,2 0,9 0,2 0,0 0,9 3,2 Fatalities 0,3 0,4 0,7 0,0 0,5 2,0 Injury accidents 2,0 1,2 1,9 0,1 5,5 10,6 CO2 emissions 4,7 0,1 0,4 0,0 1,6 6,9 Total benefits in M 16,9 9,9 8,9 0,6 15,3 51,6 The total estimated effects of the services are considerable, about 1.8 million vehicle hours driven less and circa vehicle hours less spent in congestion annually. More than thirty severe accidents and 65 thousand tonnes of CO2 emissions are avoided annually due to NEXT-ITS. The total value of the annual benefits in 2016 will be circa 51 Million, which can be compared to the implementation costs of circa 36 million including VAT and thereby comparable to the benefits (the costs without VAT amount to almost 30 Million ). As the annual operation and maintenance costs will be in the order of 3-4 Million, the NEXT-ITS can be assessed to be socio-economically feasible to a large extent. The result is indeed very positive, however, the effect estimates are based on a desk-top analysis, which needs to be compared to the actual statistics from the NEXT-ITS corridor and the national networks affected. Such an ex-post evaluation could be carried out in 2017 or The sensitivity analysis shows that the benefits calculated vary a lot dependant on the most important input parameters. However, it can be concluded that even with conservative estimates, NEXT-ITS has a positive net impact. It should be pointed out that one of the most important user benefits of making the road-users better informed is today totally neglected in the traditional benefit calculations i.e. the value of being 7

8 informed in itself. For this reason, the direct economic value of the benefits will be even higher than the traditional estimate which has be made in accordance with well-established socio-economic methodologies. It should be mentioned that in Denmark, however, the value of increased information has been determined in a comprehensive study in The NEXT-ITS evaluation team finds that the overall results are very positive, even more than anticipated. Explanations for the very positive results are among others that the services influence and thereby benefit a larger network than just the corridor itself. Further it could be added that the measures and services included in NEXT-ITS have also been through national justification procedures at an earlier stage. It is recommended by the NEXT-ITS evaluation team to perform an ex-post evaluation in e.g using statistics of the new/improved/enhanced services. However, it is clear that the effects of the services are extremely difficult to measure and will have to be estimated partly as it has been done in the ex-ante evaluation presented. 8

9 2. Description of the Problem 2.1. Site The NEXT-ITS corridor forms the Northern part of the Scandinavian Mediterranean Corridor. The corridor connects Northern Europe with Western and Southern European transport networks. It offers the primary road transport connections between Western/Central Europe and Norway and the St. Petersburg region of Russia. It links the major urban centres and ports of Scandinavia and Northern Germany with the industrialised high production regions of Southern Germany, Austria and Northern Italy. The Next-ITS project affects the Scandinavian-Mediterranean Corridor from Oslo and the Finnish- Russian border in the north via Copenhagen, Hamburg and Bremen to Hanover in Germany. The missing physical link in the corridor is the Fehmarn Belt connection (road and rail), envisioned to be completed around 2021 and an important element in transport system planning in Northern Europe. Figure 1 - The Northern part of the Scandinavian Mediterranean Corridor. 9

10 2.2. Issues Addressed During the last years the traffic load has increased considerably on the corridor, in particular the presence of Heavy Goods Vehicles. The increased traffic load and extensive presence of HGVs make the corridor vulnerable to disturbances. The road network of the relatively sparsely populated areas of Northern Europe offer limited possibilities to alternative routes and large parts of the network is subject to recurring hard and quickly alternating (road) weather conditions in particular in the wintertime. The aim of NEXT-ITS is primarily to deploy the Priority Actions b) and c) of the ITS Directive: Real-time traffic information Minimum safety related traffic information An essential part of the project is to enhance data collection, upgrade traffic management centres and improve dissemination and service provision. 10

11 3. Description of the ITS Project 3.1. Service Area The NEXT-ITS Service areas are: Traveller Information Services ICT Infrastructure 3.2. Key Words Real-time traffic information, Minimum safety related traffic information, pre-trip traveller information, on-trip traveller information, ICT Infrastructure, DATEX II, Control Centres, Corridors, Quality, Service level, priority actions, ITS Directive Objectives The partners of NEXT-ITS have carried out an analysis in order to identify which actions that together provide the best value in terms of filling the gaps between today s situation and the identified needs in relation to the Priority Actions b) and c) of the ITS Directive. The services concerned are referred to within NEXT-ITS as follows: 1. Safety related traffic information 1.1 Temporary slippery road 1.2 Animal/people/obstacles/debris on the road 1.3 Unprotected accident area 1.4 Short term road works 1.5 Reduced visibility 1.6 Unmanaged blockage of a road 1.7 Exceptional weather conditions 2. Real-time traffic information 2.1 Traffic condition information 2.2 Travel time information 2.3 Weather information Definitions are according to the Delegated Acts for the priority actions Systems and Technologies Applied The project comprises 13 deployment measures deployed for various parts of the corridor by the different road network authorities: 1. Upgrade of Traffic Centre capacity to acquire, enhance and manage traffic data from new and old sources 2. Upgrade of Weather Monitoring System detection and intelligence 3. Improving Traffic centre capacity through data quality enhancement and additional data sources 4. Improved data management and dissemination of data from traffic centres 5. Improved data quality and accessibility to data by improved methods and interfaces 6. Improved user services through VMS installations and improved data access through DATEX II 7. New solutions for data acquisition of real-time data and wider coverage of real-time data 11

12 8. New Traffic Centre data management system and operator interface, including data quality enhancement and improved data dissemination through DATEX-II 9. Improved data quality and service provision enhancement through new information channels (e.g. apps, mobile services) 10. Integration of map based traffic information services 11. Upgrade of road weather monitoring and information on winter road management 12. Improved user services through VMS information systems at urban/interurban interfaces 13. Upgrade of Traffic Centres and improved web-based user information services In addition there are two measures included for the Norwegian part of the NEXT-ITS corridor that was not a part of the application: 14. Deployment of real time travel time information on variable message signs 15. Implementation of a Road Weather Information System Figure 2 NEXT-ITS deployment including a range of different measures. As seen from users perspective, the measures contribute to the services by: Providing continuity in service provision (e.g. through corridor extension and coverage) Improving the quality of the service (e.g. through improved data collection and management) Improving/extending the content of the service Facilitating the development and provision of services (and also extending the usage) through providing access to the data for service providers Improving the accessibility to the service by harmonizing the interface with which 12

13 the service is provided and adding additional interfaces towards the users. More details on the measures are given in the Technical Annex 1 and in Annex Costs The NEXT-ITS project duration is The total estimated costs of all the NEXT-ITS deployment measures are: 29.6 M excl. VAT. The costs cover ICT infrastructure, ITS technologies, installation costs and service provision in the project period If VAT is included the deployment costs are: 35.8 M. The annual operating costs and the annual maintenance costs within the project period are included in the total above, however it is important to note that the majority of the deployments and services are put into operation during the year From 2016 the annual operating and maintenance costs are estimated to be 3-4 M excl. VAT Status of the Project The project deployments take place during the entire project period: The ex-ante evaluation is done within the project period i.e. in the autumn

14 4. Evaluation Planned 4.1. Timing and Type of Evaluation The majority of the systems and services will be launched in the end of 2015 or late Therefore it is not possible to carry out an ex-post evaluation within the project period (2013 to end of 2015), but an ex-ante evaluation is performed with an assessment of all the defined KPIs and the relevant quality parameters (refer to 4.4). Based on this assessment a consolidated corridor evaluation is presented Objectives for the Evaluation The purpose of the NEXT-ITS evaluation is to evaluate the deployment (/information coverage) as well as the costs and impacts of the services deployed along the corridor Research Questions To evaluate the costs and impacts of the services deployed along the corridor, based on defined service levels, quality requirements and Key Performance Indicators for coverage (/deployment) as well as impacts Study Area for the Evaluation SERVICE LEVELS AND KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS FOR MEASURES IN NEXT-ITS In order to harmonize service provision on the corridor, NEXT-ITS has defined Minimum and Optimum Service levels for the services concerned. The service levels in NEXT-ITS are based on the service levels defined in EasyWay Deployment Guidelines 2012 and on requirements derived from the EU specification on Minimum Safety Related Traffic Information as appropriate. Services levels have been defined to correspond with the different types of measures that will be undertaken within NEXT-ITS, and Key Performance Indicators have been defined to enable mapping of how each measure plays against development of service levels accordingly. In order to reach a Service Level, all aspects must be met: Table 1: NEXT ITS Service Levels Aspect Minimum Service level Optimum Service Level KPI for corridor status in NEXT-ITS Data Acquisition Minimum Quality Level reached Minimum Quality Level reached % of corridor segment reaching minimum level Data Management Minimum Quality Level reached Minimum Quality Level reached % of corridor segment reaching minimum level Data Dissemination Data available on DATEX II node Data available through single access point No / Minimum / Optimum level reached 14

15 Service Provision Information available pre- and on-trip Information available independent on language and with harmonized presentation of content No / Minimum / Optimum level reached The Quality Level requirements are service and measure specific and presented in conjunction with the services below. Definitions are from the earlier EIP project. It is important to note that the NEXT-ITS Quality requirements for the minimum level are at a higher level than required in e.g. the Delegated Acts for the priority actions where no specific quality requirements are listed. It shall be observed that service levels, e.g. as defined in the EasyWay 2012 Deployment Guidelines, are set in relation to Operating Environments, which means that the requirements to reach a specific Service Level should vary following the specific demand and characteristics of different sections of the corridor QUALITY LEVEL DEFINITIONS Table 2: Quality requirements for Real-time Traffic Information in NEXT-ITS - minimum level Real-time Quality parameters information Physical coverage Uptime (Availability) Data Latency Location Accuracy *** Error probability a. Traffic condition information b. Travel time information c. Weather information >75%* >95% 5-15 min 5-10 km <10% >75%* >95% 2-3 min Between fixed points at relevant locations or between starting point and destination <10% >80%** 95% <5 min km <10% * Physical coverage relates only to the main NEXT-ITS corridor and not its connecting links ** Physical coverage relates only to critical spots *** Where location is expressed as a predefined area, its accuracy will be the smallest defined area (e.g. a local community, village, or municipality Quality parameters for Data Acquisition Physical coverage = % of relevant km covered by the service Location accuracy = Accuracy (km) in terms of location Quality parameters for Data Management Uptime (Availability) = Percentage uptime which can be expected during the availability period Data Latency (of service provision) = Time period between change of condition and its dissemination to service provision to users Error probability = % of content provided outside stated quality boundaries 15

16 Table 3: Quality requirements for Safety Related Traffic Information in NEXT-ITS - minimum level Safety related traffic events Event/ condition Quality parameters Physical coverage of TERN Event coverag e Uptime (Availa - bility) Latency (in 95% of cases) Location Accuracy *** (in 95% of cases) Error probability a. Temporary slippery road b. Animal/people/ obstacles, debris on the road c. Unprotected accident area d. Short term road works e. Reduced visibility f. Wrong-way driver g. Unmanaged blockage of a road h. Exceptional weather conditions Condition Event Event Event Condition Movin g event Event Event/ Conditio Relevant parts* >2500 veh /lane/day >2500 veh /lane/day >2 500 veh /lane/day Relevant parts* Relevant parts* >2500 veh /lane/day Relevant parts* 80% ** 99% 99% <5 min <5 min link between intersection s link between intersection s 80% ** 80% 99% 99% <5 min <5 min link between intersection s link between intersection 99% <5 min s link between intersection 80% ** 99% <3 min s link between intersection 80% ** 99% <5 min s link between intersection s 95% 99% <5 min link between intersection n s * Physical coverage relates to only such sections or spots on the network, where the frequency and consequences of the events and/or conditions make the service socio-economically feasible ** Can be related only to events eventually leading to a) a call to the traffic management/information/control centre, b) a call to emergency centre or other PSAP, or c) a police report due to accident or other reason, i.e. only events brought to the attention of the traffic management/information/control centre are covered. *** Where location is expressed as a predefined area, its accuracy will be the smallest defined area (e.g. a local community, village, or municipality Quality parameters for Data Acquisition differentiated by Event (E) and Condition (C): i. Physical coverage = % of km covered by the service (E&C) ii. Event coverage = % of reported true events of the number of total events (E) iii. Location accuracy = Accuracy (km) in terms of location of an event (E) or a safety-relevant condition (C) Quality parameters for Data Management differentiated by Event (E) and Condition (C): iv. Uptime (Availability) = Percentage uptime which can be expected during the availability period (E&C) v. Latency (of service provision) = Delay between reasonably validated detection of an event (E) or a safety-relevant change of condition (C) and service provision vi. Error probability = % of false events per total reported events (E) or % of content provided outside stated quality boundaries (C) <10% <10% <10% <5% <10% <10% <10% <5% In NEXT-ITS the minimum level of quality was defined at the time of the application for the project which is then before the EIP+ activity on defining quality levels for traffic information. The EIP+ finalised its work earlier this year (2015) with a final report on recommendations on quality criteria 16

17 definitions for safety related and real-time traffic information. Reviewing these quality criteria, it can be concluded that the NEXT-ITS minimum level corresponds approximately to the so-called «Enhanced level «or level 2 of the EIP+ recommendations. (Refer to Annex 3) KPI S FOR SERVICE LEVEL ASSESSMENT For each measure the service level aspects are assessed at the end of 2012 and the end of 2015 according to the table 4 below. Table 4: Use of KPI to describe how Measures contribute to Service level improvements Aspect KPI for corridor status in 2012 KPI for corridor status in 2015 Data Acquisition % of corridor segment reaching minimum level % of corridor segment reaching minimum level Data Management % of corridor segment reaching minimum level % of corridor segment reaching minimum level Data dissemination No / Minimum / Optimum level reached No / Minimum / Optimum level reached Service Provision No / Minimum / Optimum level reached No / Minimum / Optimum level reached KPI S FOR COVERAGE AND IMPACTS KPI s for coverage (/deployment) are used as the basis for assessment of impacts from deployment. These KPI s have been selected to enable estimations of a wide range of effects on the transport system in terms of impact on safety, environmental impact and corridor performance. The main indicators from the actual deployment describe the change in coverage of ITS services with the minimum level of service and quality (presented above). The coverage is at the corridor level described as the share (%) of the relevant corridor length (km) that has been covered, before and after the measure, as well as the share of adequate users (%), whom are provided with the service. For each measure is its contribution to the service level assessed and the extended coverage is also used for impact assessment. KPIs for coverage/deployment: Real-time Traffic Information (RTTI) - (length, %) Safety Related Traffic Information (SRTI) - (length, %) Real-time Traffic Information (RTTI) - (% of users) Safety Related Traffic Information (SRTI) - (% of users) In addition to the actual deployment targets aiming at extended coverage of services, the action has policy objectives aiming at impact. These objectives relates to the NEXT-ITS project s impact on: congestion and disturbances in the traffic flow (corridor performance) exhaust and noise emissions caused by interrupted traffic, delays and unwise journey decisions accidents and injuries due to unforeseen and unexpected traffic conditions These are described as the % change of vehicle hours driven, vehicle hours spent in congestion, fatal and injury accidents and CO 2 emissions. The impacts and related benefits concerning these aspects are put in relation to the deployment costs. Definitions of the KPIs are given in the Technical Annex. 17

18 KPIs for impacts: Vehicle kilometres driven Vehicle hours driven (change in %) Vehicle hours spent in congestion (change in %) Fatal and injury accidents (change in %) CO 2 emissions (change in %) Costs of ITS Services (Euro) Note, the KPI Vehicle kilometres driven is used only in the benefit estimations. A percentage change is not estimated, because the average effect of services on the vehicle kilometres driven is ambiguous as the services could result in both more and less kilometres driven. It is anticipated however that the most likely effect is that less kilometres is driven as a result of the services provided Expected Impacts The ex-ante assessment of the costs and benefits of the actions is described below. The ex-ante assessment was carried out during the proposal drafting period based on the ITS Directive related impact assessments, EasyWay Evaluation Expert Group document library, EasyWay VIKING Evaluation Expert Group syntheses, the European ITS Toolkit contents, and the NEXT-ITS Partners own evaluation results. The impacts of the different services are estimated to be the following for the traffic and users on the sections covered and utilising the service: Table 5: Average effect of service on users on equipped sections of the NEXT-ITS corridor Main impact categories Average effect of service on users on equipped sections Safety related TI direct via IM Traffic cond., Travel time Real-time TI Road weather Vehicle hours driven -0,5 % -0,05 % -1,0 % -0,05 % Vehicle hours in congestion -1,5 % -0,15 % -1,5 % -0,05 % Fatal and injury accidents -3,0 % -0,2 % 0 % -3,0 % (-1.5% if also SRTI) CO2 emissions -0,4 % -0,3 % -1,0 % -0,05 % Note: IM Incident Management The EC impact assessment study for safety related traffic information estimated safety related traffic information to maximally reduce all road traffic fatalities in Europe by 2.7 % and all traffic injuries by 1.8 % (van de Ven et al 2013), The effects of safety related traffic information are likely higher on the NEXT-ITS corridor due to different weather conditions. In all of Europe, only ca 15 % of fatal and injury accidents occur in adverse weather conditions (eimpact 2008) whereas on the NEXT-ITS corridor this figure is much higher. In Finland. about 25 % of fatal and injury accidents occur on snowy, icy and slushy road surfaces, and an additional 15 % in rain (Peltola 2015). Hence, safety related traffic information is estimated to reduce road traffic fatalities and injuries on the NEXT-ITS corridor by 3 %. 18

19 The provision of the safety related traffic information services influences also incident management as the information relates to the most important types of incidents. In order to provide the related information service, the detection and positioning of the incidents needed to be improved in the NEXT-ITS corridor. This improves the quality and thereby also the effectiveness of incident management activities of the NEXT-ITS partners. The effect of a good incident management services has been found to reduce congestion on Dutch highways by 40% (Lettink & Masclee 2009). As the level of incident management on the NEXT-ITS corridor is much lower than on Dutch highways, the corresponding reduction is estimated to be around 7-8%, and the improvement of the incident management due to safety related traffic information service deployment was estimated to be in the magnitude of 2%, resulting in congestion reduction of 0,15%, This was scaled up for the CO2 emissions as in addition to incident related congestion, improved incident management also reduces acceleration in traffic flow outside actual congestion. The effect on vehicle hours driven is less than the congestion impact as incident management involved rerouting resulting in increases in vehicle km driven and thereby also vehicle hours driven, although in total the vehicle hours driven would be reduced by about a third of what the effect was for congestion. It is also worth noting at this point that the increase in vehicle km driven due to incident management related rerouting and detours have been taken into account in all of the actual effect estimates, and thereby these have not been accounted for in the vehicle km estimates for the 2015 situation to avoid double counting. The CODIA study (Kulmala et al. 2008) estimated the proportion of incident related crashes to be about 6% on rural roads and even 25% on motorways in Europe. For the NEXT-ITS corridor and network, the proportion is estimated to be 10% as the traffic volumes are lower than the European average on the NEXT-ITS roads with a mix of motorways and rural roads. If the improved incident management would reduce such crashes by 2%, the related overall crash reduction would be 0.2%. The related assessment study for real-time traffic information does not provide any numeric impact estimates (van de Ven & Wedlock 2014). The impact estimates in Table 5 are adapted from the results of the Intelligent Infrastructure Working Group of the esafety Forum (2010) compiling results for earlier studies. In those results, the impacts of traffic condition and travel time information on congestion and CO2 emissions range from -1% to -15% (congestion) or to -10% (CO2).The impacts of these information are expected to be on the low side of the range on the NEXT-ITS corridor as traffic volumes are considerably lower than the average in the countries where the impacts have been studied. Hence, the impact was estimated to be -1% for both CO2 and overall vehicle hours, and - 1.5% for congestion. The safety impacts were considered negligible. With regard to road weather information, the safety estimate of -3% was based on a study from Aittoniemi (2007) from Finnish conditions. If safety related traffic information including temporary slippery road and exceptional weather conditions is provided at the same time, the effect of road weather information is estimated to be halved, i.e. to be -1.5%. Real-time road weather information is also estimated to have a minor impact on mobility and travel behaviour, resulting in a 0,05% reduction in trips being made, and resulting in corresponding reductions in vehicle hours driven, congestion, and CO2 emissions Expected Methods The framework for the NEXT-ITS evaluation is illustrated in figure 3: 19

20 Figure 3 NEXT-ITS Evaluation framework, also showing the 13 measures. Based on the European Evaluation Guidelines (developed within EasyWay and EIP+) and as well the EasyWay VIKING Guidelines, a step-wise methodology has been elaborated. Figure 4 (next page) tries to illustrate the approach taken and the reasoning behind: Change in service quality due to the improved services obtained through the measures will lead to a change in use that will lead to a change in behaviour. The behavioural changes result in a change in impacts i.e. the KPIs for impacts. Also, the extended coverage - indicated as the change in deployment/coverage KPIs will result in a change in impact KPIs. Of course penetration rate is also important, but the figure is just to illustrate the principle. A complimentary way is to look at change in the reference situation on the corridor. The reference situation is determined as the value of KPIs by the end of At the end of 2015 the KPIs are assessed again to determine the change. Note, when determining the reference situation the values in the end of 2012 will have to be forecasted (or extrapolated) to describe the situation in the end of 2015 i.e. situation in end of 2015 if measures had not been deployed = do nothing situation. Note also, when assessing the KPIs at the end of 2015, it is a precondition that measures have been implemented in time to influence the KPIs. As described in section 4.1 it is not possible to carry out an ex-post evaluation within the project period, but all the defined KPIs are assessed in order to present the corridor evaluation. The methodology is illustrated in the figure 4. 20

21 Change in service quality Change in use Change in behaviour Change in impacts Change in impact KPIs Change in deployment KPIs Change in reference situation on the corridor Figure 4 NEXT-ITS Evaluation methodology 21

22 5. Results and the Impact of the Project 5.1. Technical Performance The technical performance of systems put into operation is generally good. Some measures are not in (full) operation yet, so the overall technical performance of all measures in the NEXT-ITS project is still to be investigated. Contracts and agreements are established to secure high technical performance and system uptime for the measures and for their related systems. Statistics (system logs) in relation to down time / up time and the response times of the system (systems/services) will be followed up when all measures are in full operation Results REFERENCE SITUATION: CORRIDOR STATISTICS The corridor reference situation in relation to network statistics has been determined as the value of KPIs by the end of 2012 forecasted/extrapolated to the end of All countries have been collecting the statistics on coverage and corridor characteristics to determine the KPI values required. (Refer to Technical Annex for details). The summarised corridor characteristics for the NEXT-ITS Corridor reference situation: Table 6: NEXT-ITS corridor reference situation NEXT-ITS Corridor Year (end of) Length of NEXT-ITS corridor (km) Vehicle kilometers driven (million/year) Vehicle hours driven (million/year) Veh. hours spent in congestion (mill./year) Fatal and injury accidents (number/year) CO2 emissions (million ton/year) The corridor reference situation for deployment has been determined as the value of the deployment KPIs by the end of 2012 i.e. before project start. The summarised coverage/deployment statistics for the NEXT-ITS Corridor by the end of 2012: 22

23 Table 7: Coverage of ITS services with the NEXT-ITS minimum level of service and quality, end of 2012 KPI: Relevant corridor length (km) covered and share (%) Length/km Share % Real-time Traffic Info 2.1 Traffic condition Real-time Traffic Info 2.2 Travel Time Real-time Traffic Info 2.3 Weather information Safety Related Traffic Info 1.1 Temporary slippery road Safety Related Traffic Info 1.2 Obstacles on the road Safety Related Traffic Info 1.3 Unprotected accident area Safety Related Traffic Info 1.4 Short term road works Safety Related Traffic Info 1.5 Reduced visibility Safety Related Traffic Info 1.6 Unmanaged blockage of road Safety Related Traffic Info 1.7 Exceptional weather conditions The summarised statistics in the tables above have been calculated based on input from the countries for their part of the corridor, i.e. Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland. The individual country input is in a separate Excel file. Definitions, assumptions and background information in relation to the calculations are found in the Annex 1: Technical Annex. In addition to the above coverage/deployment KPI expressing the length, also the coverage/ deployment KPI expressing the share of adequate users (%), whom are provided with the service has been investigated in the countries where user statistics are available. In Germany user statistics are not available due to privacy constraints in relation to commercial service providers and therefore it is not possible to provide overall corridor figures on the share of users. But in some of the other countries the share of users has been estimated (refer to Annex 2) DEPLOYMENT KPIS RESULTS The coverage/deployment KPIs for the NEXT-ITS corridor in the end of 2015 show the change in coverage of ITS services with the minimum level of service and quality. Table 8: Coverage of ITS services with the NEXT-ITS minimum level of service and quality, 2012 and 2015 End of End of End of End of NEXT-ITS Corridor length 2833, Length km % Length km % RT 2.1 Traffic condition 596,7 21,1 2618,5 92,4 RT 2.2 Travel Time 100,0 3,5 993,4 35,1 RT 2.3 Weather information 2341,1 82,6 2624,4 92,6 SR 1.1 Temporary slippery road 492,4 17,4 1394,6 49,2 SR 1.2 Obstacles on the road 501,9 17,7 1090,1 38,5 SR 1.3 Unprotected accident area 501,9 17,7 1090,1 38,5 SR 1.4 Short term road works 492,4 17,4 2164,6 76,4 SR 1.5 Reduced visibility 492,4 17,4 1277,6 45,1 SR 1.6 Unmanaged blockage of road 501,9 17,7 1090,1 38,5 SR 1.7 Exceptional weather conditions 492,4 17,4 1394,6 49,2 23

24 Figure 5 - Coverage of NEXT-ITS corridor length by different types of real-time (RT) traffic information services with the NEXT-ITS minimum level, in percentage, end of 2012 and Figure 6 The Coverage of NEXT-ITS corridor length by different types of safety related (SR) traffic information services with the NEXT-ITS minimum level, in percentage, end of 2012 and In Table 8 and the figures above, the End of 2015 figures show the deployment situation after the NEXT-ITS project has ended. The End of 2012 figures show the situation at the start of the project. As can be seen the project has substantially improved the coverage of real-time as well as safety related traffic information on the corridor. It should be noted that the NEXT-ITS service levels are defined in chapter (refer to Table 1) and the minimum level of service and quality are defined in chapter (refer to Table 2 and Table 3). Further, it should be noted that a special case relates to Finland where the safety related deployments will be finalised in April 2016 due to a small delay in establishing the single access point providing the information. 24

25 The quality criteria of the NEXT-ITS minimum level have to be fulfilled if the information is included in the table. This means that coverage may be higher in reality, but with a service level below the NEXT- ITS Minimum level. It is important to note that the Minimum level defined by NEXT-ITS corresponds approximately to the so-called «Enhanced level» or level 2 of the EIP+ recommendations. (Refer to Annex 3 for details on the comparison) USER STATISTICS The share of users (%), whom are provided with the services has been investigated in the countries where user statistics are available. In Germany user statistics are not available due to privacy constraints in relation to commercial service providers, but in some of the other countries the share of users has been estimated (refer to Annex 2). The % of users differs depending on the services in each country and not all countries have statistics and surveys on all information categories. This section will present and summarize the latest known user statistics. Some of the NEXT-ITS measures and services were put into operation in 2013, 2014 and beginning of Statistics for these exist, but mostly only for a short period. Most measures in NEXT-ITS are however put into operation in the end of 2015, which means that no statistics exist yet. Earlier surveys are therefore used to indicate user statistics depending on type of service. In Finland, the user statistics of actual usage has been collected for weather information and travel time information. For travel time information, the data was collected as an internet survey of a representative sample of over 1000 active drivers. 16 % of Finnish drivers reported regular use of travel time service(s) in the survey made in 2013 (Penttinen et. al, 2014). For weather information services, the Finnish user statistics were collected by two different internet surveys; one was targeted towards the users of Finnish Transport Agency s own web-service, and the other one was a representative sample of Finnish drivers. The share of drivers using weather information services (provided by various stakeholders) was 73% 2014, before launching of the new NEXT-ITS services. (Sandberg et. al., 2014) Danish user statistics per end of October 2015 show that the number of visits and downloads of the new mobile services (apps) deployed within NEXT-ITS in Denmark are quickly increasing (table 9). The table also shows when the services were launched. Note, that for the Winter traffic and road weather app it means a lot whether statistics include the winter months where usually the number of visits are relatively very high. 25

26 Table 9: NEXT-ITS mobile services launched for Denmark Service (abbreviated names) Winter traffic, road weather app Trafikinfo app (incidents, traffic cond., travel time etc.) New Yes Yes Time of launch/ relaunch No. of visits in 2013 No. of visits in 2014 No. of visits in 2015 until end October No. of downloads in 2015 until end October No. of total downloads per 31 October 2015 October April 2014 n.a ,800 Traffic Trekanten app (regional service) No Push /Warning service (all apps) Yes July 2015 n.a. n.a unique subscribers n.a. n.a. There are several reasons for increase in share of drivers using a service and some might lie outside the scope of the project. However the share of drivers using a service gives a hint of the magnitude of penetration in the population. The impact of the NEXT-ITS services depend on the share of drivers using or benefitting from the new or improved service within NEXT-ITS. Given the limited amount of user statistics available and the fact that most measures are put into operation in the end of 2015, this share of drivers is difficult to estimate. The share of drivers using or benefitting from the new or improved service has however been estimated per service and country, see Annex 2. It is recommended by the NEXT-ITS evaluation team to perform an ex-post evaluation in e.g using statistics of the new/improved/enhanced services BENEFIT KPIS - RESULTS The NEXT-ITS measures and deployments, e.g. upgrading of Traffic Centre capacity and improved travel time services, benefit a much larger network than the NEXT-ITS corridor only due to the nature of the services, by e.g. improving the content, quality and accessibility of the service as well as the area covered by the service. Therefore, the cost of implementation should be allocated for each of those networks benefiting from the service. Therefore, in the benefit calculations, the whole impacted network has been included into the calculations. For example, in the Finnish case the improved weather service influences all main public roads, a network that is more than kilometres, the traffic condition and travel time related benefits affect a network of km whereas the safety related information services only benefit part of the NEXT-ITS corridor, less than 300 km. These 26

27 different networks influenced per service have been taken into account in the benefit calculations per each country. For more details on the networks included into calculations in each country, please refer to Annex 2. One important thing to be noted is the fact that the services used by the drivers are not only the ones directly provided by road and traffic authorities. One example of the variety of service providers is the weather information services in Finland. The additional benefits brought on due to these services have been included in the calculations. The costs of the private service providers have not been included, however. On the other hand, there was no evidence that the NEXT-ITS services would have caused any extra costs to the private service providers while yet improving the quality and thereby impacts of their services. In addition to the traffic information services, and related incident management, the NEXT-ITS services will also improve traffic management and control services, and thereby also their impacts. As the emphasis of NEXT-ITS project is on traffic information, and the effects on traffic management and control are quite indirect and difficult to estimate with acceptable accuracy, these effects have not been included in the benefits. Hence, the benefit estimates can be treated as conservative. Also, the likely reduction of property damage accidents has not been included in the benefit estimates, adding to the conservative principle of the estimates. It should be pointed out that one of the most important user benefits of making the road-users better informed is today totally neglected in the traditional benefit calculations i.e. the value of being informed in itself. For this reason, the direct economic value of the benefits will be even higher than the traditional estimate which has be made in accordance with well-established socio-economic methodologies. In Denmark, however, the value of increased information has been determined in a comprehensive study in But this benefit element is not included in the totals below as such a valuation determination has been done in only one of the NEXT-ITS countries. The next tables sum up the impacts of the NEXT-ITS services in each country, and their national networks affected by the services (networks described in details in Annex 2). Table 10: The total impacts of NEXT-ITS services in the national networks. Total annual impacts Impacts in absolute numbers DE DK FI NO SE Total Vehicle hours driven (million/year) -0,67-0,30-0,44-0,018-0,33-1,8 Vehicle hours spent in congestion (1000/year) , Fatalities (number/year) -0,27-0,17-0,24 0,000-0,18-0,87 Injury accidents (number/year) -13,7-1,6-4,4-0,21-11,3-31 CO2 emissions (kilotonnes/year) -35-6, , In Table 11, the monetary value of the impacts has been transformed to benefits expressed in million Euro utilising the national unit values for the different impacts. 27

28 Table 11: The benefits i.e. the monetary value of the NEXT-ITS impacts on the national networks in million. Total annual benefits Monetary value in M (using national unit values) DE DK FI NO SE Total Vehicle hours driven 8,6 7,3 5,7 0,4 6,9 28,9 Vehicle hours spent in congestion 1,2 0,9 0,2 0,0 0,9 3,2 Fatalities 0,3 0,4 0,7 0,0 0,5 2,0 Injury accidents 2,0 1,2 1,9 0,1 5,5 10,6 CO2 emissions 4,7 0,1 0,4 0,0 1,6 6,9 Total benefits in M 16,9 9,9 8,9 0,6 15,3 51,6 The total effects of the services are considerable, about 1.8 million vehicle hours driven less and circa vehicle hours less spent in congestion annually. More than thirty severe accidents and 65 thousand tonnes of CO2 emissions are avoided annually due to NEXT-ITS. The total value of the annual benefits in 2016 will be circa 51 Million, which can be compared to the implementation costs of circa 36 million including VAT and thereby comparable to the benefits (the costs without VAT amount to almost 30 Million ). As the annual operation and maintenance costs will be in the order of 3-4 Million, the NEXT-ITS can be assessed to be socio-economically very profitable. Naturally, many of the effect estimates are only desktop estimates, which need to be compared to the actual statistics from the NEXT-ITS corridor and the national networks affected. Such an ex-post evaluation should be carried out when the services are fully in use and the novelty effect has diminished in 2017 or The sensitivity analysis related to the results presented above is presented in chapter 5.3. The effect on the number of vehicle kilometres driven would also have been an interesting to study in detail as this is a KPI often used as an indicator for accident exposure, and is also widely used in transport studies. It is feasible that NEXT-ITS services have affected also vehicle kilometres driven. Road weather information services are estimated to decrease vehicle kilometres when encouraging travellers not to travel at all or at least not by car in the most adverse conditions. On the other hand, road weather information might also encourage people to use higher class roads instead of the lower class ones, which might cause longer routes and thereby more vehicle kilometres. Safety-related traffic information is also expected to result in longer journey lengths due to detours to avoid incident locations, although journey length in hours would be reduced. Travel time and traffic condition information also likely have similar effects. Due to uncertainties in the estimation of these kinds of impacts it was not feasible to include this KPI in the evaluation Reliability of Results The ex-ante impact evaluation is based on a number of assumptions and estimates, therefore the results should be regarded as indicative. However, the sensitivity analyses that have been made (refer to chapter below) show that overall the resulting impacts can be regarded as very positive even with the lowest assumptions (i.e. conservative estimates for the input parameters). 28

29 Overall, the reliability of results cannot be determined since the results are not based on ex-post measurements etc SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Sensitivity analyses have been made by varying some of the most significant parameters: Effect estimates:average effect of service on users Share of users benefitting from the service Network influenced Value of information Effect estimates:average effect of service on users 50% effect If the average effect of service on users (refer to table 5) is only half of the estimated effects, then the benefits will also be only half i.e. approximately 26 Million per year. As the average effect of service on users is a really difficult parameter to determine, it is highly relevant to be careful when using such average effect estimates. The 50% effect is seen as a low estimate, but one could argue that there is not sufficient evidence in relation to the effect estimates and therefore rather be conservative in the estimation. Share of users benefitting from the service 50% lower or 50% higher The additional share of users benefitting from the improved information and service is also a significant factor in the benefit estimation. As statistics and surveys are only available to some extent and as well have limitations especially when it comes to how much users are changing behaviour due to the information received, sensitivity analysis has also been performed with this parameter. If the estimate of the additional share of users benefitting from the service is set to be 50% lower in all countries, the benefits will only be approximately 26 Million annually. And if the estimate of the additional share of users benefitting from the service is set to be 50% higher in all countries, the benefits will be approximately 77 Million annually. Network influenced Corridor only versus impacted network in reality The methodology used with identifying the networks influenced by the services and thereafter calculate impacts on the influenced networks means that a wider network than just the NEXT-ITS corridor is included in the benefits calculation. It is correct to do so, since the NEXT-ITS measures in reality benefit the (different) networks specified. However, it is interesting to know also the magnitude of benefits on the NEXT-ITS corridor only. The resulting benefits from the corridor is about 14 Million per year meaning that it would pay back the costs in less than 3 years. So even when looking only at the benefits on the NEXT-ITS corridor, the project is still socio-economically viable. Value of information Not included versus Danish valuation used 29

30 As described in the value of information (i.e. value of being informed) is not included in the overall benefits estimation. In Denmark, however, the National Unit Value of increased information has been determined in a thorough study (reference: Værdisætning af trafikinformation, Cowi, Vejdirektoratet 2013). Based on the recommendations in the study, the value of increased information due to NEXT-ITS has roughly been estimated to 1.27 Million for the Danish part only. So, IF the Danish value of information was to be utilised and included for the entire NEXT-ITS project (i.e. for all the relevant networks in the countries), the magnitude of annual benefits would be in the range of 59 Million in total for the project. Overall, the sensitivity analyses show that the benefits calculated vary a lot dependant on the most important input parameters. A multi-criteria sensitivity analysis where several parameters are changed at the same time has not been performed. However, it can be concluded that even with conservative estimates, NEXT-ITS will have a positive net impact Overall Assessment The evaluation is based on a range of measures deployed on the NEXT-ITS corridor at the end of 2015 by the road authorities involved in the project. The measures are related to action b (real-time traffic information) and action c (safety related traffic information) of the ITS Directive. The objective has been to evaluate the deployment (/information coverage) as well as the costs and impacts of the services deployed i.e. how the measures contribute to reduction in travel time, accidents and emissions from road transport. The total length of the NEXT-ITS corridor is km. The coverage of the services with minimum level of service and quality has been calculated by the end of 2012 and the end of The figures show that the project has substantially improved the coverage of real-time as well as safety related traffic information on the corridor. Based on the improved coverage, the change in the share of users (after the deployment of the new services) has been estimated. The total estimated costs of all the NEXT-ITS deployment measures are about 30 M excl. VAT and 36 M incl. VAT. The annual operation and maintenance costs will be in the order of 3-4 Million. The evaluation was carried out as an ex-ante evaluation, taking the estimated benefits of the measures into account. The expected impacts of the deployed services on the NEXT-ITS corridor are based on experience from several impact assessment studies as described in chapter 4.5 for both real-time and safety related traffic information services. The share of users whom are provided with the services has been investigated, based on relevant and available user statistics from each country. The NEXT-ITS measures and deployments, e.g. upgrading of Traffic Centre capacity and improved travel time services, benefit a much larger network than the NEXT-ITS corridor only. Therefore, the costs of implementation are allocated for each of those networks benefiting from the service, and the whole impacted network has been included into the benefit calculations. 30

31 The total estimated effects of the services are considerable, about 1.8 million vehicle hours driven less and circa vehicle hours less spent in congestion annually. More than thirty severe accidents and 65 thousand tonnes of CO2 emissions are avoided annually due to NEXT-ITS. The total value of the annual benefits in 2016 will be circa 51 Million, which can be compared to the implementation costs of circa 36 million including VAT and thereby comparable to the benefits (the costs without VAT amount to almost 30 Million ). As the annual operation and maintenance costs will be in the order of 3-4 Million, the NEXT-ITS can be assessed to be socio-economically very profitable. The sensitivity analysis shows that the benefits calculated vary a lot dependant on the most important input parameters. However, it can be concluded that even with conservative estimates, NEXT-ITS has a positive net impact. The result is indeed very positive, however, the effect estimates are based on a desk-top analysis, which needs to be compared to the actual statistics from the NEXT-ITS corridor and the national networks affected. Such an ex-post evaluation should be carried out when the services are fully deployed and in use and the novelty effect has diminished in e.g However, it is clear that the effects of the services are extremely difficult to measure and will have to be estimated partly as it has been done in the ex-ante evaluation presented. 31

32 6. European Dimension: Transferability of the Results This is a consolidated report from all countries within NEXT-ITS. Therefore, some cross-border comparisons have already been made within the project. The National Unit values have for example been compared and showed differences between the countries that warranted the use of national values rather than common unit values for all countries. The overall result - that the real-time traffic information and safety related traffic information services deployed within NEXT-ITS improve efficiency, reliability, safety and environmental impact on the influenced networks and are socio-economic feasible to a large extent - is transferable to other countries that plan to deploy similar real-time traffic information and safety related traffic information services. Many of the measures within NEXT-ITS improve the capacity at Traffic Centres in the different countries through better solutions for traffic data acquisition, management and dissemination. Results can therefore be transferred to other countries where similar upgrades and enhancements of Traffic Centres are planned. However, the detailed results are not transferable to other sites, since they depend to a large extent on local factors. Many of the services deployed within NEXT-ITS relate for example directly to the winter weather conditions common in the northern countries, where users benefit a lot from preinformation about e.g. slippery roads which is likely to have a smaller impact in warmer countries. Furthermore, it is important to notice that the methodology of the evaluation in this report is transferable to other countries, e.g. identifying the networks the services influence and calculate impacts on the influenced networks. 32

33 References Aittoniemi, E Tieliikenteen tietopalveluiden vaikutusmahdollisuudet liikenneturvallisuuteen. [Potential safety impacts of in-vehicle information services] AINO Publications 46/2007. Ministry of Transport and Communications Finland. Helsinki eimpact eimpact excel tool for calculating safety effects of in-vehicle systems. esafety Forum Final Report and Recommendations of the Intelligent Infrastructure Working Group v 1.0. Intelligent Infrastructure Working Group, October 6, p. Kulmala, R.; Leviäkangas, P.; Sihvola, N.; Rämä, P.; Francics, J.; Hardman, E.; Ball, S.; Smith, B.; McCrae, I., Barlow, T.; Stevens, A CODIA Deliverable 5: Final Study Report. CODIA Co- Operative systems Deployment Impact Assessment. Submitted to European Commission DG-INFSO Lettink, E. & Masclee, M Guideline for the deployment of incident management. EasyWay TMS-DG08, December 15, 2009 van de Ven, T.; Long, J. & Wedlock, M D5 Final Report: Action C - Free Road Safety Traffic Information. ITS Action Plan Framework Service Contract TREN/G4/FV-2008/475/01. European Commission, Directorate-General Mobility and Transport, Unit C3. Brussels, 22 January p. van de Ven, T. & Wedlock, M D5 Final Report: Action B - EU-wide real-time traffic information services. ITS Action Plan Framework Service Contract TREN/G4/FV-2008/475/01. European Commission, Directorate-General Mobility and Transport, Unit C3. Brussels, 25 July p. Lohoff, J.; Ansorge, J.; Rystrøm, L.; Kulmala, R.; Öörni, R.; Hendriks, T.; Kusters, M.; Dumitrescu, S Framework Guidelines for Data and Service Quality Requirements, version rd March Final Report of EIP Sub-Activity A3.2. Peltola, H ONHA - Finnish accident statistics analysis tool, use on request from Risto Kulmala on 15 January Penttinen, M., Innamaa, S., Pilli-Sihvola, E., Aittoniemi, E., Rämä, A. (2014). Use and Impacts of Travel Time Information in Finland. Proceedings of 10th ITS European Congress, Helsinki, Finland June ERTICO Sandberg, H., Laine, T., Metsäranta, H., (2014). Effectiveness of the Road Weather Information Services. Finnish Transport Agency, Traffic Services. Helsinki Research reports of the Finnish Transport Agency 29/ pp. Vejdirektoratet 2015: User statistics for services per end of October 2015, provided by Christian von Huth. 33

34 Cowi, Vejdirektoratet 2013, Værdisætning af trafikinformation, %A6rdis%C3%A6tning%20af%20trafikInformation.pdf The Norwegian Public Roads Administration. Trafikantenes oppfatning av budskap på variable skilt Brüde, U., and R. Elvik The Turning Point in the Number of Traffic Fatalities: Two Hypotheses about Changes in Underlying Trends. Accident Analysis & Prevention 74:

35 Annex 1: Technical Annex Selected Indicators Defintions of the KPIs for benefits It needs to be noted that NEXT-ITS KPIs for benefits were selected already during the application process. As seen in the table below the selected NEXT-ITS KPIs are not exactly the same, but closely related to the ones selected and shortlisted by EC in Note also that the EC KPI definition work is still ongoing. The definitions can be added later e.g. in the ex-post evaluation report of NEXT-ITS services. NEXT-ITS KPI Vehicle hours driven (change in %) NEXT-ITS definition (in work plan) Total vehicles hours driven on corridor Comments related to Cost-benefit calculations based on the collected National Unit values Comparable or related EC KPI (Shortlisted yes/no) Change in journey time (shortlisted) Traffic load factor (shortlisted) Vehicle hours lost due to congestion (change in %) Fatal and injury accidents (change in %) The extra travel time for a person vehicle compared to the free flow speed, multiplied with the number of vehicles. Where free flow speed is defined as the average speed during night, but maximum the speed limit. Killed in road accident: Any person who died within 30 days as a result of the accident. Injured in road accident: Any person who was not killed, but sustained as a result of the accident injuries requiring treatment or observation in hospital, at home (sick leave) or operative Note that in benefit calculations SE and DK has higher value for hours lost in congestion than hours driven. The other countries: GE, NO and FI use the same value for time for hours driven/lost in congestion Accident data (2011, 2012 or 2013) was based on the real accident figures in each country/selected network. When calculating the reference situation for 2015 (value without the NEXT-ITS deployment) extrapolation/forecasting was used taking into Change in traffic flow (not shortlisted) Change in journey time (shortlisted) Traffic load factor (shortlisted) Change in accident numbers and severity (shortlisted) 35

36 CO 2 emissions (change in %) Costs of ITS Services (Euro) treatment, such as stitches. Bruises, scratches and the like not requiring aforementioned treatment are not regarded as injuries. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions due to vehicle hours driven Total costs during project ( ) - including annual operating costs and annual maintenance costs if any account the reduction in severe accidents according to Elvik and Brüde (2015) 1 (e.g. FI: fatal accidents -4,5% year; injuries -2,5% per year). Note that the available unit values are often g/km hence values per vehicle hour driven are calculated with national assumptions regarding fuel consumption for different types of vehicles. Note that the network per service varies the costs and hence the impacts have been calculated for the whole network covered by the service Change in CO2 emissions (shortlisted) Data Collection Methods Corridor statistics based on: Denmark Single year data, Sweden Traffic data based on fixed data collection as well as on GPS data. Accident data is from the Danish national accident system (accidents on motorways are including ramps). CO2 emissions are based on a calculation where an average emission factor = 250 gr./km, has been multiplied with the total number of vehicle kilometres driven. Single year data, 2011, for vehicle kilometres driven. The data was collected from the annual road statistics book (2011). It includes the length of the road network and the vehicle kilometres driven per county which is given separately for private cars and heavy vehicles. Accident data from the Swedish system STRADA, the national system for accidents and injuries in road traffic. Injuries include both police reported and hospital reported injuries. CO2 emissions are based on number of vehicle kilometers driven multiplied with an emission factor, which is 254 gr/km for private cars and 875 gr/km for heavy vehicles. The average for heavy vehicles is calculated using five classes (light truck, truck without trailer, truck with trailer, local bus and long bus) differing in fuel consumption from 0.2 to 0.55 l/km. Heavy vehicles constitute 1 Brüde, U., and R. Elvik The Turning Point in the Number of Traffic Fatalities: Two Hypotheses about Changes in Underlying Trends. Accident Analysis & Prevention 74:

37 about 15% of vehicles kilometers driven depending on road network. Norway Single year data, 2012, for Vehicle kilometres driven, Vehicle hours driven and Vehicle hours spent in congestion. Accident data is based on a three year average, Finland Germany CO2 emissions are calculated using the software programme EFFEKT developed by the NPRA (software programme for cost-benefit assessments in road- and transport investment projects). The total length of the road was divided into five homogenous road sections with respect to traffic volume, speed limit and road standard. EFFEKT takes into account how traffic density and traffic flow, and then also how emissions per vehicle kilometre, varies per day, week and year for each section. EFFEKT also takes into account the expected development in engine technology from 2012 to Emissions per vehicle kilometre for each section are multiplied with the total travelled distance for each section. Single year data, Database used is TIIRA, owned and maintained by Finnish Transport Agency. All statistics (injuries, fatalities, length of the corridor and vehicle kilometres driven are calculated by combining the TIIRA-data road section by road section. The data does not include any alternative/near-by roads, but only the sections in the selected corridor, TIIRA includes the information on the numbers of vehicles in each section, length of each section, and the number of fatalities and injuries in each section. In addition, for the larger networks, i.e. all main roads the data was collected from the annual road statistics book (2012). It includes the length of the road network, the vehicle kilometres driven in each part of the network, as well as accident statistics for fatal and non-fatal injury accidents. Single year data, Database for km driven on motorways: Federal Statistical Office and the statistical Offices of the Länder. Vehicle hours spent in congestion: Estimation that 6,3% of vehicle hours driven are spend in congestion, based on calculations of the EasyWay Cooperative systems Task Force. CO2 emissions are based on number of vehicle kilometers driven multiplied with an emission factor, which is 167,89 gr/km for private cars (90%) and 742,14 gr/km for heavy vehicles (10%). The figures are taken from the Umweltbundesamt database Handbuch für Emissionsfaktoren (HBEFA). Accident data (statistics and costs) are based on annual publication of the Federal Statistical Office and on Economic costs of road accidents in Germany (Federal Traffic Research Institute BASt (2012)). Note, that data collection methods are different from country to country dependant among others on the availability of data sources. Note, that the reporting degree of accidents (especially injury, not fatal which are 100% reported) will also affect the results. In Sweden, the reporting degree is higher than average due to the STRADA system also covering hospital statistics. Hence, their figures (number of injury accidents per year) are 37

38 higher than e.g. in Finland, even though the risks are lower in Sweden than in Finland. Further, the definition of injury accidents is different in Germany, where more injury accidents are included due to the degree of injury is set lower i.e. accidents with less injury than in the other countries are included. Finally, the NEXT-ITS corridor has different operating environments with different accident frequencies. Data on Costs: The costs of the NEXT-ITS measures are paid by the road authorities/beneficiaries in the NEXT-ITS project and they do not pay VAT. Therefore the VAT is not included in the costs. However, there is an exception as the German Bundesländer are paying VAT. The total estimated costs of all the NEXT-ITS deployment measures are: 29.6 M excl. VAT. The total estimated deployment costs can be found in the NEXT-ITS application and the Grant Agreement with EC. If VAT was to be included the total estimated costs of all deployment measures would be: 35.8 M incl. VAT. (VAT in Germany is 19%, Finland 24%, Denmark, Norway and Sweden 25%). Comparison of National Unit Values A study on the National Unit Values has been done. All NEXT-ITS countries have collected their national Unit Values (per 2015) for the aim of comparison. The national Unit Values are shown below in Euros for all five countries. National Unit Values Values in EURO DK NO SE FI DE Time values, EUR per vehicle hours Travel time (passenger transport) 24,1 24,7 20,6 12,9 12,8 Delay time (passenger transport) 36,1 N/A 31,0 N/A N/A Travel time (freight transport) 66,7 66,7 33,0 25,8 31,2 Delay time (freight transport) 91,9 N/A 49,5 N/A N/A Accident values, EUR per accident Fatality (one fatality) Non-fatal injury accident Emission values, EUR per ton CO2 17,3 26,8 118,8 40,0 135,0 Vehicle operating costs, EUR per km Light vehicles 0,35 0,20 0,24 0,15 0,40 Heavy vehicles 0,71 0,57 0,85 0,49 0,70 As can be seen there are very large differences between the countries. Therefore, it was concluded that NEXT-ITS should not use average values but respect the individual national Unit Values. This also has the advantage that each country can use the benefit calculation of the country done by NEXT-ITS, since it is done in accordance with the National Unit Values recommended to be used in socio-economic assessments in the different countries. 38

39 Annex 2: National input and Networks for Benefit Calculations Overview In NEXT-ITS evaluation the deployment KPIs have been analysed for NEXT-ITS corridor only. The before situation was selected to be the end of 2012 and the after situation the end of year Availability of the services in the network was further stated as service available and accessible hence representing the share of users (drivers) on the network having somehow access to the service. Since many of NEXT-ITS deployments are in nature such that the area/network they impact is much greater than the NEXT-ITS corridor, it would not be fair to include all the deployment costs in the analysis for the corridor only. Hence, for the benefit estimations and further cost-benefit considerations the network was separately selected based on the nature and real coverage of the service. E.g. in Finland this means that there are three (3) different networks, depending on the service. In addition, for the benefit calculations, the real usage of the service was estimated based on the available user statistics. When estimating the share of users after the deployment of the new service, the definition Share of drivers using or benefiting from the new or improved service or information was used. In the following sections, all countries explained their background data and assumptions for benefit calculations. Thus, the measures included, the technical performance of measures, the contribution of the measures to the KPIs and how they influence/benefits the network will be described. Danish network for the benefit calculations In NEXT-ITS the Road Directorate, Denmark has launched five measures to deploy new and improved safety related and real-time traffic information services. These services primarily concern and influence the state road network. Thus the network statistics used as basis for the Danish part of the benefit calculations are statistics for the state road network in Denmark. Values in 2015 are estimated/extrapolated from the 2013 values. Services (safety-related and real-time) benefit the state road network Value 2013 Value 2015 Length (km) 3838,0 3838,0 Vehicle kilometres driven (million/year) 21873, ,7 Vehicle hours driven (million/year) 242,7 259,7 Vehicle hours spent in congestion (M/year) 9,50 10,26 Fatalities (number/year) Injury accidents (number/year) CO2 emissions (million tonnes/year) 5,47 5,61 39

40 Danish measures (numbers refer to work programme) 7. New solutions for data acquisition of real-time data and wider coverage of real-time data. 8. New Traffic Centre Data Management System and operator interface, including data quality enhancement and improved data dissemination through DATEX-II. 9. Improved data quality and service provision enhancement through new information channels, e.g. apps, mobile services. 10. Integration of map based traffic information services. 11. Upgrade of road weather monitoring and information on winter road management. Short description of measures Measure 7. New solutions for data acquisition of real-time data and wider coverage of real-time data: The measure addresses acquisition of real-time traffic data to enable a boost in the real-time traffic information services to be provided in the future. Tasks to be conducted: Preparation and specification of requirements in relation to data types, quantity, quality, usage, interfaces, exploration of possibilities for cooperation with other Danish road authorities on tender and usage, organization etc. (DATEX-II based). Procurement of GPS based real-time traffic data from external data providers. In the last phase, the real-time information obtained will be tailored to and integrated into a number of traffic information services. This work on service provision is included in measure 9, Service provision, Mobile services and measure 10 Integration of map based traffic information services. Measure 8. New Traffic Centre Data Management System and operator interface, including data quality enhancement and improved data dissemination through DATEX-II: Today the national Traffic Information Centre/Traffic Management Centre (TIC/TMC) at the Danish Road Directorate has an old central IT-system from It handles the traffic information, but it cannot be further developed and it does not provide any support to the operator for incident management tasks. The incident management tasks are done in a separate system. The two systems are not integrated, they have entirely different user interfaces, and they are not able to document the entire work flow. To ensure an efficient operation of traffic information services as well as traffic incident management, a new IT-system is necessary. The development and implementation of this system is an essential element in the build-up of a continuous traffic information service on the Scandinavian Mediterranean CEF corridor within the NEXT-ITS project. The new system has been specified to give a much better support of all the tasks performed by the TIC/TMC operators, as tasks will be integrated in one system and with one user interface. The system will be purchased and operated by the Danish Road Directorate. The new IT-system (named TrafikMan 2) will be implemented to enable better support for safety related traffic information and real-time traffic information as well as increased exchange of information with partners e.g. rescue services, contractors, other TMCs, municipalities, police, providers of other modes of transport and traffic information service providers. With respect to safety related traffic information and real-time traffic information the new system will especially improve three important quality issues: 1) Latency, 2) Accuracy of location and 3) Error rate (refer to NEXT-ITS quality level definition). Thus, these improvements will give a better quality of information. 40

41 With the new system in operation, the documentation of quality parameters will be improved, because of better logging and reporting facilities compared to the current system. Hereby the awareness of the values of the quality parameters will also be increased. Additionally, the new system will give better support to the operators in their handling of incidents, thus an incident managing process with faster response, more uniformity and with higher quality can be expected. This is expected to decrease the duration of a safety related disturbance of the traffic, and normal driving conditions will be reestablished faster. The new system will be able to exchange traffic information with other systems in DATEX-II format. Measure 9. Improved data quality and service provision enhancement through new information channels, e.g. apps, mobile services: The measure addresses provision of new, better and more accessible services, so that the user will have more possibilities to get the information when and where it is needed. A number of dedicated services have been identified to increase the accessibility of information to end-users (the specific services are listed as milestones). The objective is provision of real-time traffic information as well as safety related information via primarily mobile services, but also on portals and web-tv. The measure includes development and deployment of mobile traffic information services (apps) with focus on improving the accessibility for end-users, by improving as well the dissemination as the customization of the information. Quality of road weather information: Specific action within this measure includes improvements in quality, modelling and decision support in relation to road weather information services. The action will result in a higher quality of the road weather information due to more advanced forecasting of conditions. Measure 10. Integration of map based traffic information services: The present map solution is based on outdated technology and a new map solution for all map-based services is needed. The purpose is to obtain only one map with all services integrated, i.e. one technical solution. From a user perspective this will result in e.g. only one place on the web to find all relevant information (e.g. traffic condition, events, road weather, travel time information, winter information, heavy vehicle information etc.). The aim is to achieve a much more user-friendly and well-running map solution with a better functionality and a professional design. The map solution will be based on open standards and will be usable in any standard browser and also browsers used on mobile phones/tablets. Measure 11. Upgrade of road weather monitoring and information on winter road management: The measure addresses collection of real-time data on the road weather conditions. The measure aims at establishing satisfactory monitoring to enable especially safety related information within the categories a) Temporary slippery road and h) Exceptional weather conditions as defined in the delegated act (specification c). Real-time data is also used in the real-time information services on road weather conditions and the winter service. The measure will deploy and upgrade 12 weather monitoring systems on new motorway sections and on uncovered part of the corridor and adjacent network. The upgrade includes new webcams, anemometers or new units of measurement. Further, GPS equipment in winter service vehicles will be improved and installed to provide real-time data availability for both control and information purposes. From a service perspective e.g. a real-time presentation of the positions of snow ploughs and salt spreaders will be introduced based on the data. 41

42 Deployment in Denmark expressed with the deployment KPIs End of End of End of End of NEXT-ITS Corridor length, DK 452, Length km % Length km % RT Info 2.1 Traffic condition ,7 100 RT Info 2.2 Travel Time ,7 100 RT Info 2.3 Weather information ,7 100 SR Info 1.1 Temporary slippery road ,7 100 SR Info 1.2 Obstacles on the road ,7 100 SR Info 1.3 Unprotected accident area ,7 100 SR Info 1.4 Short term road works ,7 100 SR Info 1.5 Reduced visibility ,7 100 SR Info 1.6 Unmanaged blockage of road ,7 100 SR Info 1.7 Exceptional weather conditions ,7 100 Coverage of ITS services with the minimum level of service and quality. Pre-situation is end of 2012, after deployment situation is end of Provided also means covered which further is stated as service available and accessible. Relevant corridor length (km) covered and share (%) is shown in the table above. Share of users whom are provided with the service (%) is shown in the table below. End of End of Users % Users % Note, that the KPI expresses that the level of service and quality of the information services has moved from below the Minimum level to above the Minimum level as defined by NEXT-ITS. Real-time traffic information is estimated to reach 10 % of the relevant drivers resulting in: Share of additional drivers using or benefiting from the new/improved/enhanced services in NEXT- ITS: (It is assumed that the share is the same for the corridor and the network influenced) 10% * (100%-35%) = 6.5% for real-time traffic condition and travel time information 10% * (100%-70%) = 3% for real-time weather information 42

43 Safety related traffic information is also estimated to reach 10 % of the relevant drivers resulting in: Share of additional drivers using or benefiting from the new/improved/enhanced services in NEXT- ITS: (It is assumed that the share is the same for the corridor and the network influenced) 10% * (100%-0%) = 10% for safety related information Costs of measures The total costs of all Danish measures, no. 7 11, are 4.0 MEUR (excl. VAT) and 5.0 MEUR (incl. VAT). Benefits of measures The total benefits of the first year are estimated to 9.6 MEUR, excluding the value of being informed. Refer to Excel calculations, based on the share of drivers using or benefitting from the improved services as estimated above and the available user statistics used to estimate the share. Summary of the Excel with benefit calculation: The benefits i.e. the monetary value of the NEXT-ITS impacts on the national network in million (using National Unit values). Services (safety-related and real-time) benefit the state road network Value 2013 Value 2015 Length (km) 3838,0 3838,0 Effects % combi Annual impact 2015 Value 2015 in MEUR Vehicle kilometres driven (million/year) 21873, ,7 Vehicle hours driven (million/year) 242,7 259,7-0,12% -0,3-7,3 Vehicle hours spent in congestion (M/year) 9,50 10,26-0,25% -0,03-0,9 Fatalities (number/year) ,34% -0,17-0,4 Injury accidents (number/year) ,34% -1,6-1,2 CO2 emissions (million tonnes/year) 5,47 5,61-0,11% -0,01-0,1 Benefits of all NEXT-ITS services combined -9,9 Note that the related effect of Incident Management (improved due to improved safety related data) has been set to 0 % because in the Road Directorate this is very much a question on improved organisational procedures and cooperation. The incident management and improved/enhanced incident management plans are a focus area within NEXT-ITS II and therefore it has not been included in the NEXT-ITS related benefits. It is foreseen that within NEXT-ITS II the potential of the improved safety related data and systems will be realized in relation to incident management. It is important to note that the total benefits do not include the value of being informed. However, the National Unit Value of increased information has been determined in a thorough study in 2013 (Reference: Værdisætning af trafikinformation, Cowi, Vejdirektoratet 2013). The value of increased information due to NEXT-ITS has roughly been estimated to 9.5 million DKK = 1.27 MEUR. The estimate is based on the table below showing the Danish willingness to pay for increased information for different trips and for a road with and without congestion and no road works. The unit is øre/vehicle/km where øre is 1/100 DKK. It is assumed that the information level increases a half level (from level 4, refer to the reference report for definitions) and values without congestion are used. Total vehicle kilometres driven are: mill/year (i.e. Value 2015 based on 43

44 extrapolated/forecasted statistics) and it is assumed that the information is used by 10 % of the drivers. I.e. 10 % of the vehicle kilometres driven will get the value of information. Ændring i informationsniveau Uden trængsel Med trængsel Informationsniveau øges fra (3) til (4) Pendling 0,49 0,99 Erhverv 1,00 1,98 Andet 0,90 2,06 Informationsniveau øges fra (4) til (5) Pendling 0,51 1,01 Erhverv 1,05 2,03 Andet 0,95 1,75 Informationsniveau øges fra (5) til (6) Pendling 0,80 1,67 Erhverv 1,64 3,35 Andet 1,47 3,28 Technical performance of the Danish measures Some measures have been put into operation (October 2015), but most measures are not yet in (full) operation. This means that the technical performance of the measures is not yet investigated. However, the overall technical performance of the systems already in operation is very good. Statistics (system logs) in relation to down time / up time and the response times of the system (systems/services) will be followed up when all measures are in full operation. References for Danish benefit calculations DTU Transport og COWI for Transportministeriet, Transportøkonomiske Enhedspriser, til brug for samfundsøkonomiske analyser, Version 1.5, September The Road Directorate, Data vedr. NEXT-ITS corridor for Danmark based on VEJMAN database and GPS database and calculations, Internal document, Flemming Clausen, 17. November 2014 The Road Directorate, Beregninger vedr. NEXT-ITS Network, Internal document, Flemming Clausen, 10. February Cowi, Vejdirektoratet 2013, Værdisætning af trafikinformation, %A6rdis%C3%A6tning%20af%20trafikInformation.pdf 44

45 Swedish networks for benefit calculations Within Next-ITS the Swedish transport administration (STA) has launched five measures (numbers refer to work programme): 2. Upgrade of Weather Monitoring System detection and intelligence 3. Improving Traffic centre capacity through data quality enhancement and additional data sources 4. Improved data management and dissemination of data from traffic centres 5. Improved data quality and accessibility to data by improved methods and interfaces 6. Improved user services through VMS installations and improved data access through DATEX II The new and improved services influence three different networks. In some cases the Swedish measures affect only some of the service areas. Areas are then weighted taking the number of events and also the extent of estimated delays (Movea, 2011) into consideration. The result of the assessment is envisaged in the table below, which shows the estimated proportion of benefit of traffic information from service areas: Real-time Traffic Info 2.1 Traffic condition 60% Real-time Traffic Info 2.2 Travel Time 30% Real-time Traffic Info 2.3 Weather information 10% Safety Related Traffic Info 1.1 Temporary slippery road 15% Safety Related Traffic Info 1.2 Obstacles on the road 5% Safety Related Traffic Info 1.3 Unprotected accident area 25% Safety Related Traffic Info 1.4 Short term road works 35% Safety Related Traffic Info 1.5 Reduced visibility 5% Safety Related Traffic Info 1.6 Unmanaged blockage of road 10% Safety Related Traffic Info 1.7 Exceptional weather conditions 5% Measure 2 Weather stations This measure consists of upgrade of eight weather stations with road status sensors, which are used to assess road conditions (dry, wet and winter conditions) and traction (grip, warning of slipping or slipping). Upgrade of another 50 weather stations with sensors will take place during In December 2015, subsection 2.1 will be covered, while all of the TNT network will be covered in December Two different brands of sensors are compared. The focus must be on reducing the proportion of road users who are surprised by difficult or bad conditions (f <0.5) 2. Road users who accessed the service could then be defined as 100% minus the percentage who are surprised by difficult or bad conditions. This represents the percentage of road users who are aware of the road conditions. We estimate here that more than 20% are surprised of situations with difficult or bad conditions. The other 80% have received information before or during the trip through websites, radio, VMS and navigation devices (GPS, smart phone). Relevant network: E6 Idefjorden - Gothenburg, 197 km Network statistics: 2 f = friction coefficient 45

46 Network N3 E6: Norwegian boarder-gothenburg End of 2011 Length (km) End of 2015 (Estimation) Vehicle kilometres driven (million/year) Vkd truck (million/year) Vkd person car (million/year) Vehicle hours driven (million/year) Vehicle hours spend in congestion (M/year) Fatal accidents (number/year) Non-fatal injury accidents (number/year) CO2 emissions (million tonnes/year) Service areas affected: 1.1, 1.5 and 1.7. Proportion of safety-related traffic info: 25% (Table p. 45). Share, not surprised by difficult or bad conditions: 80% (60% before 2012). Share of drivers using and benefiting from the new/improved/enhanced services in Next-ITS: 25% * (80%-60%) = 5% (TIS-safety), Direct effect 10% (rel.im) and 0% (Real-time service areas are not affected by this measure). Cost of measure: 0.3 MEUR Measures 3b, 4, 5 and 6 collection of real-time data, upgrading of IT-environment and dissemination of traffic information These measures consists of collection of real time data in Stockholm and Gothenburg using floating car data, upgrading of the IT environment in the four service centres in Sweden and dissemination of traffic information via VMS, API, websites etc. Three of the traffic centres in Sweden are located adjacent to the TNT road network. The improvements will be achieved by upgrading the hardware, installing new servers for secure communication between the different IT environments, and more efficient and secure communication between applications and support systems. This allows real-time data to be handled better and create conditions for the development of forecasting tools for status and journey time information. Traffic information can be distributed from traffic centres directly to road users through websites ( ), RDS- TMC and traffic information boards (VMS). It also affects drivers indirectly through local radio stations and navigation systems (GPS, smart phones). This measure also includes development of an API for the national traffic information server so that external users can more easily access the information. Through the API, users can develop their own apps with access to current traffic status. The measure will facilitate the dissemination and allow greater use of information for external service providers. Installation of four new VMS are included in these measures; one in Stockholm (E18 at Danderyd) and three in Gothenburg (Järnbrottsmotet, Vädermotet and North of Bohus). The text message on all VMS boards in Stockholm and Gothenburg will be made available on the Internet ( in October

47 We estimate that no more than every second driver now is surprised by unexpected queues due to incidents on the roads. The other 50% have received information before or during the trip through websites, radio, VMS and navigation devices (GPS, smart phone). Relevant network: State road network in Stockholm County and Västra Götaland County, 1827 km Network statistics: Network N2 Stockholm county + Västra Götaland County End of 2011 End of 2015 (Estimation) Length (km) Vehicle kilometres driven (million/year) Vkd truck (million/year) Vkd person car (million/year) Vehicle hours driven (million/year) Vehicle hours spend in congestion (M/year) Fatal accidents (number/year) Non-fatal injury accidents (number/year) Co2 emissions (million tonnes/year) Service areas affected: , Proportion of safety-related traffic info: 85% (Some limitation of slip warnings and weather phenomena exist). Share, not surprised by incidents, accidents or road works: 50% (40% before 2012). Share, not surprised by unexpected queues in Stockholm and Gothenburg: 50% (40% before 2012). Share of drivers using and benefiting from the new/improved/enhanced service in Next-ITS: 85%*(50%-40%)= 8.5% (TIS-safety), Direct effect 10% (rel.im), 100%*(50%-40%)= 10% (RTTI 2.1 and 2.2), 0% (RTTI 2.3 weather service not affected by these measures). Cost of measures: 8.8 MEUR Measure 3a Road work data collection This measure consists of improving the quality of information available at the traffic centres in Sweden. The improvements are achieved through a special app/webpage that makes it easier and faster for contractors to report changes in the mobility situation due to road works. Reporting of road and maintenance work has improved in several ways during the latest years. We estimate that no more than 40% are today surprised by road works that they were not aware of in advance. The other 60% have received information before or during the trip through websites, radio, VMS and navigation devices (GPS, smart phone). 47

48 Relevant network: State road network in whole Sweden, km Network statistics: Network N1 State road network End of 2011 End of 2015 (Estimation) Length (km) Vehicle kilometres driven (million/year) Vkd truck (million/year) Vkd person car (million/year) Vehicle hours driven (million/year) Vehicle hours spend in congestion (M/year) Fatal accidents (number/year) Non-fatal injury accidents (number/year) Co2 emissions (million tonnes/year) Service area that is affected: 1.4. Proportion of safety-related traffic info: 35% (Table p. 45). Share, not surprised by delay at road and maintenance works: 60% (40% before 2012). Share of drivers using and benefiting from the new/improved/enhanced service in Next-ITS: 35%*(60%-40%)= 7% (TIS-Safety), Direct effect 10% (rel.im) and 0% (Real-time service areas are not affected by this measure). Cost of measure: 0.7 MEUR Deployment in Sweden End of End of End of End of NEXT-ITS Corridor length, SE Length km % Length km % RT Info 2.1 Traffic condition RT Info 2.2 Travel Time RT Info 2.3 Weather information SR Info 1.1 Temporary slippery road SR Info 1.2 Obstacles on the road SR Info 1.3 Unprotected accident area SR Info 1.4 Short term road works SR Info 1.5 Reduced visibility SR Info 1.6 Unmanaged blockage of road SR Info 1.7 Exceptional weather conditions Coverage of ITS services with the minimum level of service and quality. Pre-situation is end of 2012, after deployment situation is end of

49 Provided also means covered which further is stated as service available and accessible. Relevant corridor length (km) covered and share (%) is shown in the table above. Share of users whom are provided with the service (%) is shown in the table below. End of End of Users % Users % Costs of measures The total cost of all Swedish measures (no. 2 6) is 9.8 MEUR. Benefits of measures The total benefit the first year is estimated to 15.9 MEUR. Refer to Excel calculations. Based on the share of drivers using or benefitting from the improved services as estimated above. The total benefit consists of benefits from several services and a summary of the benefit calculations is presented in the tables below. Value Value Measure 2 Weather stations % combi Value 2015 Length (km) Vehicle kilometres driven (million/year) Value 2015 in MEUR Vehicle hours driven (million/year) % Vehicle hours spent in congestion (M/year) % Fatal accidents (number/year) % Injury accidents (number/year) % Co2 emissions (million tonnes/year) % Total effect

50 Measures 3b, 4, 5 and 6 collection of real-time data, upgrading of ITenvironment and dissemination of traffic information Value 2011 Length (km) Vehicle kilometres driven (million/year) Value 2015 % combi Value 2015 Value 2015 in MEUR Vehicle hours driven (million/year) % Vehicle hours spent in congestion (M/year) % Fatal accidents (number/year) % Injury accidents (number/year) % Co2 emissions (million tonnes/year) % Total effect -5.7 Value Value Measure 3a Road work data collection % combi Value 2015 Length (km) Vehicle kilometres driven (million/year) Value 2015 in MEUR Vehicle hours driven (million/year) % Vehicle hours spent in congestion (M/year) % Fatal accidents (number/year) % Injury accidents (number/year) % Co2 emissions (million tonnes/year) % Total effect -7.7 Technical performance of the Swedish measures Measure 2, 5 and 6 are already in operation and the technical performance of these are very good. The other measures are under implementation (October 2015) and the technical performance will be followed up when they are in full operation. Services provided by the Swedish Transport Administration (STA) and by third parties The Swedish Transport Administration (STA) disseminate traffic information on national level via their internet portal Läget i trafiken see figure below. 50

51 STA internet portal for information to drivers about road works, incidents, weather, road weather, ferries and traffic cameras. STA also provides data for download via API Using this data third parties can build their own traffic information services. For Stockholm, Gothenburg and Skåne there is also regional traffic information via Trafiken.nu The regional traffic information are provided by STA in cooperation with local authorities. 51

52 Statistics on number of visits exists for the webpage The table below shows number of visits from year 2010 to 2014 for the Stockholm version of the webpage. During 2015 the number of visits has increased with 22% compared to the previous year, but full-year statistics for 2015 will be available in january References Swedish Transport Administration Socio-economic principles and values for the transport sector: ASEK 5.2. Swedish Transport Administration The annual vehicle mileage in Publication number 2014:033. Swedish Transport Administration The speed investigation Publication number 2013:002. Movea och WSP (2006). Field study VMS. The example Partihallsförbindelsen. Gunnar Lind, Kristina Schmidt and Henki Refsnes. 52

53 Movea (2008). Slippery road warnings in real time. Socio-economic consequences of SRIS (Slippery Road Information System). Movea (2011). Smart navigation. What are the benefits of traffic information in the car? Movea (2012a). ITS-implementations Assessment of effects. Gunnar Lind and Anders Lindkvist. Movea (2012b). Utilisation of new road surface sensors. Gunnar Lind. Trafikverket (2015) E6 Evaluation of road status sensors during Jonas Hallenberg. 53

54 Finnish networks for the benefit calculations Compared to the other countries, FI has a slight delay in the deployment of Safety Related Traffic Information services. The services will be launched in April 2016 and hence the benefit calculations in FI case have been made for 2016 taking into account that Safety related TIS are available 2/3 (or 66,7%) of the year. The other statistics for the network(s) in Finland, is still In NEXT-ITS, Finland has new and improved services covering three (3) different networks. Real-time weather information and forecasts, including specific road weather information covers all main public roads in Finland (see table below, Finnish network statistics for Weather information (service 2.3)): end of 2012 end of 2015 (estimation) Length (km) 13329, ,0 Vehicle kilometres driven (million/year) 23431, ,0 Vehicle hours driven (million/year) 292,89 296,5 Vehicle hours spend in congestion (M/year) 1,11 1,20 Fatal accidents (number/year) 158,00 99,3 Non-fatal injury accidents (number/year) 1904, ,8 CO2 emissions 6,08 6,0 The special notes for the Finnish network for Weather information service are: The network in 2015 will be the same as it was in 2014 (available statistics for 2014) Official statistics for vehicle kilometres driven was available for 2012, 2013 and The estimation for 2015 was extrapolated from these. Vehicle hours driven was calculated from vehicle kilometres driven, with the average speed of 80 km/h (most common speed limit on Finnish main public roads) When estimating the vehicle hours spent in congestion, the earlier studies of the delays were used (referred in the proposal) and assuming additionally that only 10% of the congestion in Finland happens outside the NEXT-ITS corridor. For accident calculations the real accident numbers for 2012 and 2014 were used as basis and the 2015 values were calculated from 2014 data with the following assumption (according to Elvik et. al. 2015): fatal accidents -4,5% year; injuries -2,5% per year For the CO2 emission calculations the average emissions used were: 259,5 g/km (2012) 254,4 g/km (2015) Since weather information service and travel time service are overlapping, i.e. both are covering part of the network described above, the overlap was removed before calculating the benefits of weather information only (see following table FI network covered only by the weather information service (used in benefit calculations for weather information services)). 54

55 Basic information Value Value Lenght (km) 7429, ,0 Vehicle kilometres driven (million/year) 13059, ,5 Vehicle hours driven (million/year) 163,24 164,5 Vehicle hours spend in congestion (M/year) 1,11 1,2 Fatal accidents (number/year) 88,06 41,2 Non-fatal injury accidents (number/year) 1061, ,1 Co2 emissions (million tonnes/year) 3,39 3,3 For Travel-time and Traffic condition information (Services 2.2 and 2.1) the selected SUJUVA-network was used. It covers the busiest parts of the main road network; a bit under 50 % of the Finnish main public roads (see table below, Finnish network statistics for Travel time and traffic condition information): end of 2012 end of 2015 (estimation) Length (km) 5900, ,00 Vehicle kilometres driven (million/year) 10371, ,17 Vehicle hours driven (million/year) 129,64 131,20 Vehicle hours spend in congestion (M/year) 1,11 1,20 Fatal accidents (number/year) 69,94 60,91 Non-fatal injury accidents (number/year) 842,79 781,15 CO2 emissions 2,69 2,67 The same logic was used for the 2015 calculations than for the weather information services, and hence the vehicle hours spent in congestion are the same as in the network for weather related information Again, since SUJUVA network overlaps with the network including Safety related traffic information, the overlapped part was removed and the SUJUVA network having only Travel time and Traffic condition information AND weather information (see table below, FI network for Travel time + Traffic condition + Weather information used in the benefit calculations) is used in the benefit calculations. Basic information Value Value Lenght (km) 5622, ,20 Vehicle kilometres driven (million/year) 9883, ,83 Vehicle hours driven (million/year) 123,54 124,44 Vehicle hours spend in congestion (M/year) 1,11 1,20 Fatal accidents (number/year) 66,64 58,04 Non-fatal injury accidents (number/year) 803,11 744,37 Co2 emissions (million tonnes/year) 2,56 2,53 55

56 For Safety related Traffic information (see table below, Finnish network statistics for Safety related Traffic information) services (services ) only western part of the NEXT-ITS corridor in Finland is covered/will be covered in April 2016 when the new Nordic Way service is launched. The western part includes FTA operated roads in the capital area, including all ring roads and main arteries entering Helsinki. Therefore, all the congestion in Finnish NEXT-ITS corridor has been allocated to this part of the corridor. It is important to note that this part of the network includes also weather information, travel time information and traffic condition information Basic information Value Value Lenght (km) 277,80 277,80 Vehicle kilometres driven (million/year) 2465, ,6 Vehicle hours driven (million/year) 29,03 30,8 Vehicle hours spend in congestion (M/year) 0,99 1,08 Fatal accidents (number/year) 4,96 4,3 Non-fatal injury accidents (number/year) 85,64 79,4 Co2 emissions (million tonnes/year) 0,64 0,7 For all the other indicators except congestion, the same logic was used as for the other services listed above. Finnish measure, measure 1 (referring to the work programme) Safety related and real-time traffic information/data management A basic problem of traffic information services is the low level of data quality for real-time traffic information services, as the current travel time service is not performing well in snowy and wintery road conditions due to chosen technology. Therefore a new service utilizing floating vehicle and cellular data will be taken into use in Also other sources of data are available but it has proved difficult to integrate them into the Finnish Transport Agency databases and services. Concerning safety-related information, the basic problem has been the current data management and operator support systems with little integration resulting in too low performance in timeliness, latency and error probability in order to facilitate the provision of safety-related information services. The Finnish measure (Measure 1 in work programme) aims to eliminate the current problems in traffic information services as well as traffic management services. It focuses on improving the quality of traffic information services by developing a common user interface and an integration layer named T- LOIK. The common interface will support Traffic Centre operators in their daily tasks at informing road users on relevant developments in traffic and managing traffic. The emphases is on developing a usable, all inclusive interface highlighting ease of use and good tools for fast delivery of traffic management actions and information to road users via VMS and other channels of information such as the internet, social media and radio stations. The user interface comprises a map interface, VMS information tool (also for other information channels), alarm tool and road weather display integration. 56

57 The basic idea of T-LOIK The integration layer focuses on developing a wide scale integration of traffic control systems, GIS and on road data collection. Furthermore the integration layer also includes software services for analysing and breeding data into intelligent information to be utilized by traffic management, road users and service providers. With this modular multi-layer software architecture it is possible to utilize existing and new information and data collection sources (especially incident information as well as floating cellular/vehicle data on road surface condition and travel time) to it, increasing the use of existing VMS for warnings and information, and in general making the traffic information service process much more efficient and increasing its quality. The new T-LOIK system will be built in three main phases. The first phase will implement the base system and test integrations. The first phase will be completed by the end of The first phase is being built by three companies using agile software development. The Finnish Transport Agency has the role of the integrator. The second phase will be the first complete operational entity covering the NEXT-ITS corridor, and will be completed by the end of The last phase, complete will all integrations and features, will be implemented by Note that the deployment of the new information and data collection sources is carried out at the same time, but outside NEXT-ITS. 57

58 Deployment in Finland expressed with the deployment KPIs End of End of End of End of NEXT-ITS Corridor length, FI 449, Length km % Length km % RT Info 2.1 Traffic condition ,7 100 RT Info 2.2 Travel Time ,7 100 RT Info 2.3 Weather information 447,7 100,00 449,7 100 SR Info 1.1 Temporary slippery road SR Info 1.2 Obstacles on the road SR Info 1.3 Unprotected accident area SR Info 1.4 Short term road works SR Info 1.5 Reduced visibility SR Info 1.6 Unmanaged blockage of road SR Info 1.7 Exceptional weather conditions Coverage of ITS services with the minimum level of service and quality within the NEXT-ITS Corridor in Finland. Pre-situation end of 2012, after deployment end of Relevant corridor length (km) and share (%) is shown in the table above and the share of users whom are provided with the service (5) is shown in the table below. End of End of NEXT-ITS Corridor length, FI 449, % % RT Info 2.1 Traffic condition RT Info 2.2 Travel Time RT Info 2.3 Weather information SR Info 1.1 Temporary slippery road 0 0 SR Info 1.2 Obstacles on the road 0 61,8 SR Info 1.3 Unprotected accident area 0 61,8 SR Info 1.4 Short term road works 0 61,8 SR Info 1.5 Reduced visibility 0 61,8 SR Info 1.6 Unmanaged blockage of road 0 61,8 SR Info 1.7 Exceptional weather conditions 0 61,8 58

59 Services provided by FTA, and the third parties When it comes to the actual usage of the services such as weather, travel time and traffic condition and safety related information, not all the information used by the drivers is brought to them directly by the FTA. FTA is providing the up-to-date information directly to drivers via their internet portal. FTA web-portal providing drivers information on road works & incidents; weather & road weather; congestion; weight limits; and long distance trains. In addition, the information collected by FTA is used by several 3rd parties, who then built their own traffic information services on the information. A good example of the variety of stakeholders and services in weather information is presented in the figure below. 59

60 Weather information services in Finland (Saarinen et. al., 2014) 60