EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OVERVIEW OF THE 2035 PLAN DEVELOPMENT PROCESS ANTICIPATED YEAR 2035 SYSTEM CAPACITY. Executive Summary

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1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OVERVIEW OF THE 2035 PLAN DEVELOPMENT PROCESS A team of TPO staff and consultants developed the 2035 plan in coordination with a technical advisory committee of staff from local, regional and state agencies; citizen advisors; the general public; and local decision-makers. Working together, the study team and the community developed and assessed anticipated transportation needs and weighed alternative transportation improvement strategies. The resulting 2035 Cost Feasible Plan includes a balanced array of projects that provide the best possible mobility and accessibility for the region s people and goods in the most cost-efficient manner. Key projects include a select number of critical highway and transit capacity expansion projects, such as additional lanes and routes along major corridors, supported by a broad array of multi-modal strategies to improve traffic and transit operations, such as intersection signal coordination, roadway connectivity, transit service frequency and pedestrian and bicycle route development. Highlights from the analysis, findings, and development of the 2035 Plan are summarized below. More detailed information is presented in subsequent chapters. ANTICIPATED YEAR 2035 SYSTEM CAPACITY One of the first steps in the plan development process was to update the travel demand model in order to identify probable future system performance based on anticipated future transportation and land use conditions. Based on this analysis, the study team identified corridors and networks that needed additional capacity in order to handle increased travel demand. The following maps and statistics describe the levels of traffic congestion projected to occur by the year The results of the analysis assume the completion of short-range transportation improvement projects to which funding has been committed through the year 2015, as identified in the TPO s Transportation Improvement Program. As shown on Map 1, increased traffic congestion is anticipated along several major facilities, particularly in once-rural southern areas of the County that are attracting increasingly high levels of suburban development. The analysis reveals several important anticipated changes in regional mobility conditions between now and the year 2035, including the following: An increase in overall Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) from 12 miles per person to 14 miles per person An increase in total Vehicle Hours of Travel (VHT) from 45 minutes per person to almost 90 minutes per person; and An increase in county-wide Vehicle Hours of Delay (VHD) from 5 minutes per person to more than 50 minutes per person. 1

2 Executive Summary Map 1: Anticipated Year 2035 Congestion 2

3 2035 TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM NEEDS Executive Summary The package of transportation investments summarized on Maps 2 and 3, collectively referred to as the 2035 Needs Plan, would address anticipated future congestion to a point where the system operates at acceptable performance levels. Roadway investments in the Needs Plan are focused upon strategic widening projects, new regional and local network connections, and optimization of the existing network through traffic operations and Intelligent Transportation System ( strategies, as well as Complete Streets improvements to make corridors safely accessible for all travel modes, including pedestrian, bicycle and motorized vehicles. Transit investments include increased frequencies on existing popular routes as well as new regional express-route connections. The projected transportation improvements needed to support future growth and development are estimated to be over $1.8 billion dollars. Figure 1: Transportation Needs 3

4 Map 2: Year 2035 Roadway Needs Plan 4

5 Map 3: Year 2035 Transit Needs Plan 5

6 2035 NEEDS PLAN ESTIMATES The total estimated cost for projects in the 2035 Needs Plan is $1.84 billion. The estimates were developed with techniques that reflect anticipated inflation rates over time. This was a two-step process. The study team first developed cost estimates in current (Year 2010) dollars. As shown in Figure 2 below, the team then multiplied the estimated costs by anticipated inflation factors developed by the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT). Figure 2: Inflation Rates The resulting estimates indicate the TPO should anticipate project costs to increase by as much as 70% due to inflation. Projects that are scheduled to take many years, particularly if they are begun in the outer years of the plan, will cost more than projects that can be completed sooner. For example a project cost of a $6.5 million could grow to a total of $11 million over the years it will take to plan, design, and construct. 6

7 FINANCIAL RESOURCES In order to determine the limits of financial feasibility for evaluating the potential inclusion of Needs Plan projects in the Cost Feasible Plan, the project team developed projections of financial resources and revenues that are anticipated to be available by the Year of Expenditure (YOE). The revenue projections, which account for the effects of inflation over time, reflect committed and uncommitted transportation revenues expected to be generated at local and state levels, including funding sources dedicated to specific categories such as the Strategic Intermodal System (SIS) and maintenance/ operations activities. Transportation Needs Versus Available Funds After accounting for revenues allocated to specific projects or programs, $1.28 billion is expected to be available for new projects in the 2035 LRTP. However, as stated earlier, the estimated total cost of projects in the 2035 Needs Plan is $1.84 billion, a $554 million deficit. Figure 3: Transportation Needs Vs Available Funds 7

8 FEASIBLE PLAN In order to select the most cost-effective array of projects from the Needs Plan for inclusion in the Cost Feasible Plan, the project team used the regional travel demand model to test the performance of alternative packages of improvements. Concepts and ideas were weighed by the general public and by committees of technical staff and citizen advisors. In addition, the packages were evaluated for cost-effectiveness within the constrained amount of revenues expected to be available through the year Based upon this analysis, the project team identified a package of improvements for the Cost Feasible plan shown in Map 4 and Map 5 below. The plan includes strategic capacity expansions along a few selected corridors, but places the primary focus on making the existing system more efficient with a broad array of operational improvements and multimodal investments. Over the near term ( ) key projects include the following: Additional lanes on I-95, Ellis Road, and construction of the Parkway North; Capacity improvements to the Parkway interchanges; Multimodal and operational corridor improvements identified in the Needs Plan; Increased transit frequency on four major routes; and new Grissom Road transit route. Key projects over the longer term ( ) include the following: Remaining multi-modal corridor improvements; Capacity expansions to regional roadways such as South Street (SR405), US 1; US 192, Malabar Road, and Babcock Street; and Transit priority projects in accordance with the regional Transit Development Plan. Figure 4: 2035 Cost Feasible Plan 8

9 Map 4: Cost Feasible Plan Roadway Projects 9

10 Map 5: Cost Feasible Plan Transit Projects 10

11 Table 1: Cost Feasible State Strategic Intermodal System Projects STRATEGIC INTERMODAL SYSTEM (SIS) FROM/ TO (2010 $'S) IMPLEMENTATION YEAR TOTAL I-95 I-95 Malabar Rd to Indian River County Volusia County to SR 406 Widen Freeway (4 to 6 lanes) Widen Freeway (4 to 6 lanes) $135,620, $135,620,000 $65,020, $79,272,000 Total Project Cost $200,640,000 $214,892,000 Total SIS Est. Revenue $222,610,000 Surplus/Deficit $7,718,000 11

12 Table 2: Cost Feasible Projects (State / Federal Funded) STATE / FEDERAL FUNDED CAPACITY S Parkway Parkway Parkway Interchange (North) Ellis Road Parkway Parkway Parkway Interchange (South) South Street (SR 405) US 1 US 192 Babcock Street Babcock Street Malabar Road Malabar Road Babcock Street * Parkway from US 192 to Malabar Road includes the section from Malabar to Pace Dr that will be constructed FROM/ TO US 192 to Malabar Rd John Rodes Blvd to US 192 at- I-95 / Ellis Rd John Rodes Blvd to Wickham Rd Babcock St to I-95 Interchange (South) I-95 Interchange (South) to Micco Rd at I- 95 (north of Micco Rd) Existing 4 lane section to State Road 50 Eyster Blvd to Pineda Causeway Wickham Rd to Dairy Road Malabar Rd to Foundation Park Foundation Park to New Parkway Interchange Babcock St to US 1 Minton Rd to St. Johns Heritage Parkway New Parkway Interchange to Indian River County New 4 Lane Road New 4 Lane Road New Interchange (urban) (2 to 4 Lanes) New 4 Lane Road New 4 Lane Road New Interchange (Mainline) (2 to 4 Lanes) (4 to 6 lanes) (4 to 6 lanes) (2 to 4 Lanes) (2 to 4 Lanes) (2 to 4 Lanes) (2 to 4 Lanes) (2 to 4 Lanes) (2010 $'S) YEAR OF EXPENDITURE TOTAL $9,760, $11,899,000 $12,300, $14,996,000 $18,000, $21,946,000 $15,780, $19,239,000 $5,460, $6,657,000 $5,390, $ 6,571,000 $18,000, $21,946,000 $31,960, $ 43,318,000 $34,180, $35,361,000 $26,000, $38,933,000 $7,660, $11,609,000 $38,400, $58,199,000 $32,760, $49,651,000 $40,400, $69,276,000 $46,860, $82,755,000 Total Project Cost $342,910,000 $492,356,000 Total Est. Revenue (Other Arterials / TMS funds) $520,300,000 Surplus/Deficit $27,944,000 12

13 Table 3: Cost Feasible Projects (Local / Developer Funded) LOCAL / DEVELOPER FUNDED CAPACITY S Bombardier Blvd. Clearlake Road Culver Drive Fellsmere Connector Garvey Road Hollywood Blvd. Pirate Lane Powerline Road Powerline Road SR 524 Parkway Parkway St. Andrews Stadium Parkway Turtlemound Rd Extension US 192 Viera Blvd. Viera Blvd. Interchange Washingtonian Extension FROM/ TO St Johns Heritage Parkway to Degroodt Rd Michigan to Industry Emerson Dr to Palm Bay Rd San Filippo Dr. to SR 512 (Indian River County) Garbelmann Rd to Bombardier Rd US 192 to Palm Bay Rd Babcock St to Lipscomb St St Johns Heritage Parkway to Minton Rd Minton Rd to Hollywood Dr. I-95 Interchange (South) to Industry Rd Malabar Rd to Bombardier Rd Bombardier Rd to Babcock St Judge Fran Jamison to Stadium Pkwy Fiske Blvd to Viera Blvd Aurora Rd to Eau Gallie Blvd St Johns Heritage Parkway to Wickham Rd Herons Landing to Schenck Rd at- I-95 / Viera Blvd Wickham Rd to St. Johns Heritage Parkway (2 to 4 Lanes) (2 to 4 Lanes) (2 to 4 Lanes) (2010 $'S) (2010 $'S) DEVELOPER TOTAL (LOCAL PORTION) $10,759,000 $4,203,000 $6,556,000 $6,644,000 $1,292,000 $5,352,000 $1,646,000 $ $1,646,000 New 4 Lane Road $115,569,000 $48,572,000 $66,997,000 Widen from 2 to 3 Lanes / New 3 Lane (2 to 4 Lanes) (2 to 4 Lanes) $15,019,000 $2,922,000 $12,097,000 $40,237,000 $ $40,237,000 $11,371,000 $2,212,000 $9,159,000 New 2 Lane Road $34,626,000 $34,626,000 $ New 2 Lane Road $13,000,000 $2,530,000 $10,470,000 (2 to 4 Lanes) $13,000,000 $15,000,000 $17,932,000 New 4 Lane Road $25,699,000 $5,000,000 $20,699,000 New 4 Lane Road $40,133,000 $5,000,000 $35,133,000 New 4 Lane Road $16,618,000 $16,618,000 $ (2 to 4 Lanes) $10,652,000 $10,652,000 $ New 2 Lane Road $6,012,000 $6,012,000 $ (4 to 6 lanes) (2 to 4 Lanes) New Interchange (urban) New 2 Lane Road (ROW for 4 Lanes) $40,390,000 $27,672,000 $12,718,000 $8,855,000 $8,855,000 $ $23,000,000 $23,000,000 $ $38,925,200 $15,198,000 $23,727,200 Total Project Cost $472,155,200 $229,364,000 $262,723,200 Total Est. Local Revenues $263,700,000 Surplus/Deficit $976,800 13

14 OPERATIONS / ITS / MULTIMODAL CORRIDORS Babcock Street Table 4: Cost Feasible Operations/ITS/Multimodal Projects FROM/ TO US 192 to Malabar Rd (2010 $ S) TOTAL $2,180,000 $2,986,600 Barnes Blvd. Fiske Blvd to US 1 Operations / ITS $500,000 $685,000 Columbia Blvd (SR 405) I-95 to US 1 Operations / ITS $630,000 $863,100 Dixon Blvd. Clearlake to US 1 $380,000 $520,600 Eau Gallie Blvd. I-95 to Bridge Operations / ITS $1,510,000 $2,068,700 Eau Gallie Blvd. Bridge to SR A1A Operations / ITS $1,020,000 $1,397,400 Fiske Blvd. Fiske Blvd. SR 520 to Barnes Blvd Barnes Blvd to Stadium Parkway $1,790,000 $2,452,300 $2,300,000 $3,151,000 Garden St (SR 406) I-95 to US 1 Operations / ITS $630,000 $863,100 Hickory Road NASA Blvd to Hibiscus Blvd $250,000 $342,500 Malabar Road Minton Rd to Babcock St Operations / ITS $1,400,000 $1,918,000 Minton Road US 192 to Palm Bay Rd N. Babcock Street US 1 to US 192 N. Courtenay Parkway SR 528 to SR 520 $1,450,000 $1,986,500 $700,000 $959,000 $2,330,000 $3,192,100 Palm Bay Road Minton Rd to RJ Conlan Operations / ITS $,750,000 $2,397,500 Post Road Wickham Rd to US 1 Operations / ITS $ 650,000 $890,500 Sheridan Road SR 520 SR 520 SR 520 SR 528 SR A1A SR A1A Wickham Rd to John Rodes Blvd I-95 to Hubert Humphrey Bridge Hubert Humphrey Bridge to SR A1A US 1 to Hubert Humphrey Bridge N. Courtenay Pkwy to Port Canaveral Port Interchange to One way split One way split to Pineda Causeway $850,000 $1,164,500 Operations / ITS $,500,000 $2,055,000 Operations / ITS $2,840,000 $3,890,800 $500,000 $685,000 Operations / ITS $860,000 $1,178,200 $2,890,000 $3,959,300 $2,200,000 $3,014,000 14

15 SR A1A US 1 OPERATIONS / ITS / MULTIMODAL CORRIDORS FROM/ TO Pineda Causeway to US 192 Garden St to Columbia Blvd (SR 407) (2010 $ S) TOTAL $3,110,000 $4,258,000 Operations / ITS $2,620,000 $3,589,400 US 1 SR 528 to Eyster Blvd Operations / ITS $1,700,000 $2,329,000 US 1 Post Rd to RJ Conlan Operations / ITS $3,040,000 $4,164,800 US 1 US 1 Garden St. to Harrison RJ Conlan to Malabar Rd $1,100,000 $1,507,000 $800,000 $1,096,000 US 192 Bridge to SR A1A Operations / ITS $840,000 $1,150,800 US 192 Walden Blvd / Wyoming Drive Wickham Road Parkway to Bridge Emerson Dr to Babcock St Parkway Dr. to Sarno Road $2,750,000 $$3,767,500 $920,000 $1,260,400 $400,000 $548,000 Wickham Rd / Minton Road Sarno Rd to Malabar Rd Operations / ITS $2,100,000 $2,877,000 Total Project Cost $50,490,000 $69,171,300 Total Est. Revenue (Remaining OA / TMA ) $30,000,000 Total Est. Local Revenue $40,000,000 Surplus/Deficit $828,700 15

16 Table 5: Cost Feasible Transit Projects TRANSIT ENHANCEMENTS FROM/ TO (2010 $ S) YEARS TOTAL Route - 6 Cocoa / Rockledge Increase Frequency $1,200, $35,266,800 Route - 21 Melbourne Increase Frequency $1,000, $29,389,000 Route - 23 West Palm Bay Increase Frequency $1,000, $29,389,000 Route - 28 North Melbourne Increase Frequency $1,000, $29,389,000 New Route - Grissom Corridor Titusville / Cocoa New Route $2,700, $79,350,300 Total Project Cost $6,900,000 $202,784,100 Total Est. Revenue (Transit) $209,000,000 Surplus/Deficit $6,215,900 16