Key Questions in International Transport Policy

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1 Key Questions in International Transport Policy Jari Kauppila, Senior Economist InterTran seminar Helsinki, 30 Nov 2015

2 Intergovernmental Organisation 57 member countries (23 non-oecd) focussing on transport A strategic think tank for global transport policy issues An annual summit of Ministers

3 4 th transport revolution

4 Big Data

5 Urban Mobility: System Upgrade Why What we did What we found commute

6 Urban Mobility: System Upgrade Why What we did What we found 50 min.

7 Urban Mobility: System Upgrade Why What we did What we found Scenario: 24 hours 24hrs. peak hrs. number of cars required to provide the same trips as before:

8 Urban Mobility: System Upgrade Why What we did What we found Scenario: 24 hours 24hrs. peak hrs. number of cars required to provide the same trips as before: 5%

9 Urban Mobility: System Upgrade Why What we did What we found -15% vehicle kilometres Scenario: 24 hours

10 Urban Mobility: System Upgrade Why What we did What we found -27% CO 2 emissions Scenario: 24 hours

11 eliminate all street parking

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14 Urban Mobility: System Upgrade Why What we did What we found -80% off-street parking

15 Urban Mobility: System Upgrade Why What we did What we found self-driving

16 Mobility Data: Changes and Opportunities Why What we did What we found Privacy by design

17 Why What we did What we found Research questions: data What strategies exist to durably protect sensitive personal location data? Beyond supplier-client relationship? Public authority access to most privately collected data? Is there a benefit from minimum public interest data sets for transport operations, planning and safety applications?

18 Why What we did What we found Research questions: shared mobility self-driving Is there a need for regulation? Who should be regulated: The service, the platform, the driver or any combination of these? What principles should guide regulatory intervention for identified market failures and inefficiencies? Regulatory initiatives focus on testing, licensing and operation of vehicles on public roads not on use cases for automated and fully autonomous vehicles.

19 Changes in global trade

20 Global trade elasticities have changed Average Average Own calculations based on World Bank and OECD

21 A growing share of trade between emerging economies Within non- OECD 15% OECD w ith non-oecd 38% Within OECD 47% Within non- OECD 33% Within OECD 25% OECD w ith non-oecd 42%

22 Emerging economies move to higher valueadded activities changing trade composition Value-added shares by sector China India Euro Area Japan USA Services 43% 49% 51% 58% 72% 69% 75% 71% 78% 71% High-skilled manufacturing Other sectors (agriculture, energy and other manufacturing) 16% 41% 21% 31% 7% 41% 13% 29% 8% 9% 20% 22% 10% 12% 6% 15% 17% 16% 8% 21%

23 Implications for future global freight Global freight will more than quadruple by 2050 (by a factor of 4.3) (trade value by a factor of 4.2) Average hauling distance +17% Increasing capacity constraints can hamper economic growth Strong growth of CO 2 emission (+290%) undermines climate change goals An unprecedented challenge

24 Global freight volumes and CO 2 emissions by corridor North Pacific route Intra-North America +344% +263% +270% +191% North Atlantic route Intra- Europe +280% +195% Mediterranean and Caspian Sea +215% +174% +715% +689% +406% +315% Intra-Asia +403% +332% +374% +273% North Pacific route South Pacific route Intra- South America South Atlantic route Intra- Africa Indian Ocean route Oceania Freight volume in billion tonne-km CO 2 Emissions in million tonnes

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26 Domestic share of global freight 10% of international trade takes place within domestic borders

27 Domestic share of trade-related CO 2 emissions 10% 30% of international trade takes place within domestic borders of total traderelated CO 2 is emitted here

28 International trade related CO 2 emissions Sea 37% 2010 Air 7% Rail 3% Sea 32% 2050 Air 9% Rail 3% Road 53% Road 56%

29 Improving efficiency of supply chains Improve capacity management Invest in missing links Prepare for mega-ships Increase vehicle utilisation Many freight facilities are underutilised or managed at low efficiency level Focus on managing supply chains not only nodes More alternative and multi-modal connections to increase efficiency Adapt infrastructure to more and bigger vessels Also at port-hinterland links Improve load factors and reduce idle times across supply chains

30 Research issues for global freight Downside risks of global growth? From investment-led growth to consumption-led growth in emerging economies Geopolitical issues and restrictions to trade (increased non-tariff barriers) Fragmentation or consolidation of global value chains? Near-shoring vs off-shoring new routes? New technologies (e.g. 3D printing) Drivers of logistics performance? Transport as a constraint to growth? Capacity increased congestion Environmental sustainability

31 Climate change

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34 Share of freight/passenger surface transport of total transport CO 2 emissions 58% 60% 42% 40% Freight Passenger 2010 Freight 2050 Passenger Freight will replace passenger traffic as main source of CO2 emissions from surface transport

35 Adaptation and mitigation Can behavioural change be motivated by climate issues? Decision-making under uncertainty? Trade-off between other sustainability goals