European Logistics in 2050

Transcription

1 EU Green Week Transport and Spatial Planning in a Decarbonised World European Logistics in 2050 Professor Alan McKinnon Logistics Research Centre Heriot-Watt University EDINBURGH, UK 25th June 2009

2 freight transport = 8% of energy-related CO 2 emissions worldwide Forecast Growth of Freight Transport Activity by Region % Source: World Business Council for Sustainable Development - Mobility 2030 report CO 2 emissions per tonne-km also increasing due to switch from rail and water-borne transport to trucks and planes

3 Decoupling of Freight and GDP Trends? freight intensity index (2003 = 100) Ratio of road and rail tonne-km to GDP Source: Eurostat Belgium Czech Republic Denmark Germany Ireland Spain France Hungary Netherlands Finland United Kingdom Pre off-shoring Post off-shoring Export of carbon-generating activities reducing EU s carbon footprint Embedded carbon in imported products Retail distribution centre assembly plant supplier warehouse

4 Decarbonisation Framework for Logistics Weight of goods produced / consumed modal split Similar analyses for other modes modal split Weight of goods transported by road Road tonnes-lifted Road tonne-kms average handling factor number of links average length of haul length of links supply chain structure Total vehicle-kms average load on laden trips average % empty running space / equipment use Vehicle operation / fleet managemnet asset utilisation warehousing / materials handling timing of deliveries energy efficiency energy efficiency energy consumption CO 2 carbon intensity of energy aggregate key parameter - decarbonisation lever carbon content of energy

5 Decarbonisation Scenario for UK Road Freight in 2050 Analysis by Maja Piecyk Total tonne-kms stable at 2007 level Road share of freight tonne-kms reduced from 64% to 50% % of truck kilometres run empty reduced from 27% to 17% Average weight-based load factor up from 59% to 70% 40% improvement in energy efficiency 30% reduction in the carbon content of the energy 76% reduction in CO 2 emissions Combination of radical changes in key parameters required Ignores complex inter-relationship between freight transport and other activities

6 External Influences Economic trends Pattern of 2.5% average annual growth population growth 190% income growth by 2050 redistribution of population 1-2% GDP loss for 80% CO 2 cut changing demographics services = large % of extra spend higher energy costs Production systems Energy mix switch to low carbon energy decarbonises logistics BUT: development of renewables, nuclear power and CCS will be transport-intensive LOGISTICS 2050 near-shoring / relocalising re-zoning of agriculture clustering in low carbon regions digitisation 3D printing / fabbing Negative feedbacks: Adaptation measures generate extra CO 2 Climate change adaptation flood protection water supply constraints realigning infrastructure reconfiguring supply chains at risk growth of humanitarian logistics

7 Decreasing Carbon Intensity of Electricity Generation Projection for the UK gco2 per kwh Source: Committee on Climate Change, 2008 Direct transmission to freight transport services: Increase in % of electrified rail infrastructure (from 52% in EU in 2005) Trolley trucks for inter-urban road network?

8 Electrification of Freight Transport Energy Storage and Carrier Systems for Vehicles Batteries - improving storage capacity, life, performance, recharge times etc - development of new value chain for batteries Hybrids Plug-ins Hydrogen heavy energy use in production, compression, liquification etc - expensive development of new hydrogen infrastructure Renewable energy is better distributed by electrons than by hydrogen (Bossel, 2004) Biodiesel and biogas: for long haul trucks, non-electrified rail and inland waterways

9 Stabilisation Wedges applied to freight transport operations Carbon emissions 80% Business-as-Usual trend electrification of transport with low / zero carbon electricity reduced transport intensity improved fuel efficiency increased vehicle utilisation freight modal shift 2050 Adapted from Pacala and Socolow, 2004

10 Stabilisation Wedges applied to freight transport operations Carbon emissions 80% Business-as-Usual trend electrification of transport low / zero carbon electricity reduced transport intensity improved fuel efficiency increased vehicle utilisation freight modal shift 2050 Adapted from Pacala and Socolow, 2004

11 Supply Chain Decarbonisation Measures Clean vehicle technology Slowing down product flow Localised sourcing of agricultural produce Optimisation of logistics networks Increased energy efficiency of buildings Improved packaging design Enable low carbon production Training and communications Freight modal shift Reverse logistics / recycling Near-shoring / relocalisation Increased home delivery Reduction in congestion Source: World Economic Forum / Accenture

12 Advances in Vehicle Technology 350 Energy (kwh) base level after target reduction Source: US 21 st Century Vehicle Partnership In US potential for 30% improvement in energy efficiency of new trucks Less for European trucks given their higher average efficiency and different driving conditions Engine Aerodynamics Tyres Auxiliary equipment Transmission Total Teardrop Dolphin Drag coefficient 0.35 (average car)

13 Shipping 3.3% of greenhouse gases today 15-30% in carbon constrained world of 2050 Forecast growth of CO 2 from ships (with 33-50% increase in fuel efficiency) 3.6bn 2.4bn 1bn Source: Committee on Climate Change 2008 NYK Super-Eco Ship % reduction in CO 2 per container carried relative to current average container ship

14 Forecast Growth of Air Freight Traffic Revenue tonne-kms Source: Boeing (2008) Little or no potential for electrification Limited switch from kerosene to biofuels Air freight demand will be very sensitive to high carbon price / tax

15 Targets for CO 2 Reduction Per Unit-km in Aviation Source: ACARE 2020 projections +100% -50% +50% Air freight traffic CO 2 emissions per unit of traffic net increase in CO 2 emissions

16 Supply Chain Decarbonisation Measures Clean vehicle technology Slowing down product flow Localised sourcing of agricultural produce Optimisation of logistics networks Increased energy efficiency of buildings Improved packaging design Enable low carbon production Training and communications Freight modal shift Reverse logistics / recycling Near-shoring / relocalisation Increased home delivery Reduction in congestion Source: World Economic Forum / Accenture

17 Decelerating Material Flow: JIT RIP? Some suppliers have adapted better than others to the disciplines of just-in-time delivery Relaxation of JIT Switch to slower, lower carbon modes Greater load consolidation Lower speed limits Corporate CO 2 Benefits from Just-in-Time Delivery Lower inventory levels: less energy use in storage (heating, refrigeration, lighting etc.) less wastage of product Less storage space required: less CO 2 in construction, operation and maintenance More efficient production process lower energy wastage Benefits at consumer level? Need for low carbon consumers to be more patient

18 Supply Chain Decarbonisation Measures Clean vehicle technology Slowing down product flow Localised sourcing of agricultural produce Optimisation of logistics networks Increased energy efficiency of buildings Improved packaging design Enable low carbon production Training and communications Freight modal shift Reverse logistics / recycling Near-shoring / relocalisation Increased home delivery Reduction in congestion Source: World Economic Forum / Accenture

19 Decarbonisation of Warehousing Warehousing = 7-10% of logistics-related CO 2 eco-friendly mega shed Can now design DC emitting 70% less CO 2 than typical 15 year-old DC in the UK (Prologis) development of the carbon neutral warehouse renewal of warehouse stock by 2050 Ultra-low / zero carbon materials handling equipment by 2050

20 Supply Chain Decarbonisation Measures Clean vehicle technology Slowing down product flow Localised sourcing of agricultural produce Optimisation of logistics networks Increased energy efficiency of buildings Improved packaging design Enable low carbon production Training and communications Freight modal shift Reverse logistics / recycling Near-shoring / relocalisation Increased home delivery Reduction in congestion Source: World Economic Forum / Accenture

21 Reversal of Centralisation / Wider Sourcing Trends? Nationallybased Production Product A Product B Product C Product D Distribution Focused Production in pan- European plants Source: Cooper 1993 CO 2 Emissions CO CO 2 Trade-offs 2 trade-offs in logistics total logistics CO 2 Inventory-related CO 2 warehousing CO 2 transport CO 2 Minimum CO 2 footprint no.of warehouses Need full Life Cycle Analysis - minimising freight transport need not minimise CO 2

22 Supply Chain Decarbonisation Measures Clean vehicle technology Slowing down product flow Localised sourcing of agricultural produce Optimisation of logistics networks Increased energy efficiency of buildings Improved packaging design Enable low carbon production Training and communications Freight modal shift Reverse logistics / recycling Near-shoring / relocalisation Increased home delivery Reduction in congestion Source: World Economic Forum / Accenture

23 Comparative Carbon Auditing: Online and Conventional Book Retailing Analysis by Dr. Julia Edwards Printers 170km Distributors Forward flow Returns 11g 21g 21g Sortation Centre 76g Fulfilment Centre 192g Conventional 669g CO 2 Online 426g CO 2 17g shop depot 21g Sortation Centre 99g Local Depot 23g Retailers 323g 99g 192g car 4340g bus 1270g van 181g home last link % of total 87% 75% 70% Online s CO 2 advantage: Over car: 8.3 x Over bus: 2.8 x Assumptions: no return of unwanted product no trip-chaining by shoppers shopper buys one product no travel substitution for shopping trip successful first time delivery

24 Supply Chain Decarbonisation Measures Clean vehicle technology Slowing down product flow Localised sourcing of agricultural produce Optimisation of logistics networks Increased energy efficiency of buildings Improved packaging design Enable low carbon production Training and communications Freight modal shift Reverse logistics / recycling Near-shoring / relocalisation Increased home delivery Reduction in congestion Source: World Economic Forum / Accenture

25 Congested Transport Infrastructure UK trunk roads relative to 2003 traffic conditions year Traffic volume Congestion (vehicle-kms) (lost time / vehicle km) % +1% % +32% +17% +37% Source: UK DfT By 2050 European road network likely to have: comprehensive road pricing slot allocation on trunk routes speed control

26 Voluntary Consumer Response Imagine if all those people acted to cut carbon in all they did The supply chain, and gradually the economy as a whole, would begin to turn to green We will begin to create a mass movement in green consumption. Sir Terry Leahy, Tesco CEO Beijing 22 nd August 2008 Product level carbon auditing will be hugely expensive in time, effort and cost. Will require elaborate verification system Will induce very limited behavioural response Imposition of personal carbon quotas Personalised carbon trading We cannot shop our way out of climate change Mark Lynas

27 Carbon Policy Agenda Voluntary consumer response Advice, exhortation and accreditation Cap and trade systems: extended to logistical activities standardised and verifiable carbon measurement systems getting the carbon price right Imposition of carbon taxes Regulation: fuel / carbon economy standards for freight vehicles tight carbon standards for logistics buildings Combination of all actions required to decarbonise logistics

28 Visions of Britain 2050 Aberdeen London

29 Contact details Logistics Research Centre Heriot-Watt University EDINBURGH UK