BSR transport infrastructure & international economic system

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1 КАФЕДРА МИРОВОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ Санкт-Петербургский Государственный Университет Экономический факультет BSR transport infrastructure & international economic system Sc.D. Elena G. Efimova St. Petersburg State University Professor of World Economy Department

2 Primary goal of the research The goal of the research is to identify prospects of St.Petersburg and Muuga ports in international trade. Tasks of the research: to make the comparative analysis of theoretical approaches, to depict basic mechanisms of port industry s organization, to identify the role and the place of St.Petersburg and Muuga ports in international container turnover.

3 Theoretical background There is the closed correlation between transport links and industrial development at the national, regional and global levels. Transport plays leading role in the network growth models explaining national economic development and integration into the world economy. There are two types of completed models which connect transport demand and regional economic development: 1. Movement models, where economics is the factor of transport system development 2. Industrial functions, spatial models and equilibrium models, where transport affects the economics.

4 Theoretical background There are four key approaches to studying the impact of transport on the regional economic development : 1. By means of the transport s influence on access to markets, resources and sales. Reducing transportation costs by percent is equivalent to an increasing consumption of products and services at 1.5 per cent (Mazzenga E., Ravn M. International Business Cycles: The Quantitative Role of Transportation Costs. Working Paper No CEPR. London. UK P.12). 2. By means of transport costs 3. By means of an analysis of investment activity in the region 4. By means of questionnaires of entrepreneurs.

5 Practical approach Transport and transit facilitating system consist of two components: hard ware and soft ware (key factor). Hard ware Soft ware transport subsystem Information subsystem Common managing by the system of trade and transport procedures facilitating Business logistics systems Goods flows management systems Finance control of services quality

6 EU s transport infrastructure: Legislation background Transport infrastructure supports and facilitate commercial activity, providing geographical accessibility of the regional. Plans for the future of the transport sector must take account of its economic importance. Total expenditure runs to some billion euros, which is more than 10% of GDP. The sector employs more than ten million people. It involves infrastructure and technologies whose cost to society is such that there must be no errors of judgment. Indeed, it is because of the scale of investment in transport and its determining role in economic growth % private investment are involved into transport sphere. We have moved from a stock economy to a flow economy. This phenomenon has been emphasized by the relocation of some industries - particularly for goods with a high labor input - which are trying to reduce production costs, even though the production site is hundreds or even thousands of kilometers away from the final assembly plant or away from users. Source: European transport policy for 2010: time to decide. White Paper. Brussels, COM(2001)370 final.

7 Quantitative characteristics of national transport infrastructures in Baltic Sea Region

8 Christophersen s Group Projects for BSR Project Expenditures (est), mln ECU Priority projects 11. Fixed rail/road link Sweden-Denmark (Øresund) 12. Nordic triangle Total Prospect Projects 6. High speed rail in Denmark Fehmarn Belt fixed link Inland water route: Elba Oder 650 Total

9 BSR transport projects in EU s system Priority projects of BSR make up 11.61%, projects of prospective importance account for about 13,9% of the total financing the groups respectively.

10 Port industry organization in Baltic Sea Region (BSR) Around 90 per cent of all trade within the region is transported by sea. In total, some 2000 ships are in transit in the Baltic Sea every day. Speech by Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt at the Stakeholder conference - EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region 30 September Источник: Basic BSR restrictions: 1. Denmark belts 2. Øresund bridge 3. Baltic Sea depth 4. Baltic ports channels depth Resolving restrictions problems is in three-level port system

11 Port industry organization Three levels system of port industry: gateway port-hub feeder port BSR: gateway Port of Hamburg Port-hub and feeder ports form «hub&spoke» system There is not any port-hub in BSR. Contenders to the port-hub title are St.Petersburg, Århus, Goteborg. Specific feature of Baltic hubs is medium container capacity ( TEU) Box 1. Rout Singapore-Hamburg-St.Peterburg-Moscow: costs analysis Source:

12 Port industry s organization Ports, the hubs have the equipment for rapid handling of cargo in order to reduce the demurrage time. These ports impose two requirements: they should be placed in a geographically central (or accessible) place in the region, have a hinterland to attract additional cargo; they are able to accommodate bigger ships, in comparison with other ports in the region. Source:

13 Post-crisis changes in port industry s organization: case of BSR 1. Search of alternative routes via Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea (has been not realized yet) Box 2. Source: Rout A Shanghai St.Petersburg Moscow: miles+729 km; $ (container 40 ) Rout B Shanghai Novorossiysk Moscow: 8395 miles+1491 km; $ (container 40 ) 2. Direct ports connections instead hub-feeder system

14 Extra EU-27 trade by main trading partners, EU-27 (EUR million) EXPORTS Extra EU ,1 849,7 884,7 891,9 869,2 953, , , , ,6 United States 187,0 238,2 245,6 247,9 227,3 235,5 252,7 269,0 261,4 249,4 China (excl. Hong Kong) 19,7 25,9 30,7 35,1 41,5 48,4 51,8 63,8 71,9 78,4 Russian Federation 16,9 22,7 31,6 34,4 37,2 46,0 56,7 72,3 89,1 105,2 Sw itzerland 63,7 72,5 76,5 72,8 71,4 75,2 82,6 87,7 92,9 97,7 Norw ay 23,9 26,4 27,2 28,2 27,7 30,8 33,8 38,5 43,6 43,7 Japan 35,7 45,5 45,5 43,5 41,0 43,4 43,8 44,8 43,8 42,4 Turkey 21,6 31,9 21,9 26,6 30,9 40,1 44,6 50,0 52,7 54,3 South Korea 11,7 16,7 15,8 17,7 16,5 17,9 20,2 22,9 24,8 25,7 Brazil 14,4 16,9 18,6 15,7 12,4 14,2 16,1 17,7 21,3 26,3 India 10,6 13,7 13,0 14,3 14,6 17,2 21,3 24,4 29,5 31,5 IMPORTS Extra EU ,3 992,7 979,1 937,0 935, , , , , ,7 United States 165,9 206,3 203,3 182,6 158,1 159,4 163,5 175,2 181,6 186,3 China (excl. Hong Kong) 52,6 74,6 82,0 90,2 106,2 128,7 160,3 194,8 232,6 247,6 Russian Federation 35,9 63,8 65,9 64,5 70,7 84,0 112,6 140,9 144,3 173,3 Sw itzerland 55,1 62,6 63,6 61,7 59,1 62,0 66,6 71,6 76,9 80,1 Norw ay 30,4 47,2 46,4 48,0 51,0 55,3 67,2 79,2 76,7 92,0 Japan 75,4 92,1 81,1 73,7 72,4 74,7 74,1 77,3 78,4 74,8 Turkey 16,0 18,7 22,1 24,6 27,3 32,7 36,1 41,7 47,0 45,9 South Korea 20,5 27,0 23,3 24,6 26,0 30,7 34,5 40,8 41,4 39,4 Brazil 14,1 18,7 19,6 18,4 19,1 21,7 24,1 27,2 32,8 35,5 India 10,5 12,9 13,5 13,7 14,1 16,4 19,1 22,6 26,6 29,4 TRADE BALANCE Extra EU-27-60,2-143,0-94,4-45,1-66,0-74,6-126,9-192,4-192,5-242,1 United States 21,1 31,9 42,3 65,3 69,2 76,1 89,2 93,8 79,8 63,1 China (excl. Hong Kong) -32,9-48,8-51,3-55,1-64,8-80,3-108,5-131,1-160,7-169,2 Russian Federation -19,0-41,0-34,3-30,1-33,5-37,9-55,9-68,6-55,2-68,2 Sw itzerland 8,6 10,0 12,9 11,1 12,3 13,2 16,0 16,1 16,0 17,6 Norw ay -6,5-20,8-19,2-19,9-23,4-24,5-33,4-40,7-33,1-48,3 Japan -39,7-46,6-35,6-30,2-31,4-31,3-30,3-32,5-34,6-32,4 Turkey 5,7 13,2-0,2 2,0 3,6 7,4 8,5 8,3 5,7 8,4 South Korea -8,8-10,2-7,4-6,9-9,6-12,7-14,2-17,9-16,6-13,7 Brazil 0,3-1,8-1,0-2,6-6,7-7,6-8,1-9,5-11,5-9,2 India 0,2 0,8-0,5 0,7 0,5 0,8 2,2 1,8 2,9 2,1 (1) Partners are sorted according to the sum of imports and exports in Source: Eurostat (tet00040)

15 Container terminal surface of the world's major port holdings and shipping density, 2009 Source:

16 Cargo turnover structure of Russian ports by basins (mln tones) Source:

17 St.Petersburg, Kaliningrad, Muuga: Container Terminal Turnover Source: AS Muuga Container Terminal

18 Big Port of St.Petersburg: container turnover fall in Uneven lower cargo turnover by different operators: ZAO First Container Terminal - 13% Petrolesport OJSC 63.1% MOBY DIK Co. Ltd % 2. Reducing quantity of intermediaries (new office Unifeeder) 3. Diversification of calling at ports (for example, Petrolesport instead First Container Terminal) 4. Increasing return loading in case of export: Share of empty containers decrease from 61.2% to 44.9% Average weight of export container increases from 6.3 tones to 9.0 tones 5. Containerization of bulk cargo (metal, fertilizer)

19 Big Port of St.Petersburg: prospects of development First Container Terminal: capacity growth up to 1600 thousand TEU Petrolesport: traffic capacity growth up to 2300 thousand TEU plus 800 thousand tones of Ro-Ro cargo First Stevedoring Company: construction of the terminal with the capacity up to 790 thousand tones of Ro-Ro cargo is finished Fourth Stevedoring Company: prospect traffic capacity up to 1500 thousand TEU Second Stevedoring Company: terminal for handling 1300 thousand tones of Ro-Ro cargo is planned Third Stevedoring Company: terminal for cars handling was started up in 2008 Plus avant ports (MOBY DIK, Phoenix, Lomonosov) projects; Ust Luga

20 Muuga Harbor: prospects of development At the Stage 1 of extending the eastern part of Muuga Harbor, up to 70 ha of land will be developed, of which about 23 ha is covered by the sea. The new terminal and infrastructure will increase twofold the present-day container handling capacity of the Muuga Harbor. The completion deadline for this stage is the fourth quarter of Providing rail access to the Industrial Park of Muuga Harbor Extension to the Free Zone at the Eastern part of Muuga Harbor Source:

21 AS Muuga Container Terminal and Big Port of St.Petersburg: compete or complete? Now: Competition for feeder cargo traffic by means of modern sea and inland infrastructure development and exclusive institutional conditions. Complete support in case of hard ice situation, force major circumstances In prospect???

22 КАФЕДРА МИРОВОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ Санкт-Петербургский Государственный Университет Экономический факультет Thank you for your attention