Renewable energy and sustainability

Transcription

1 Renewable energy and sustainability An overview of costs and supply chain constraints in offshore wind Dr Graham Wall CORL (Centre for Operational Research and Logistics) Department of Mathematics LG 1.33; 1

2 Contents Renewable energy context and statistics Renewable energy research projects - UoP Offshore wind farm logistical challenges Offshore wind cost reduction measures Offshore wind energy supply chain constraints 2

3 3

4 Comparison of energy generation costs (2009) Source: Mott MacDonald (2010) 4

5 Offshore wind context UK is world leader with half of the world s installed capacity 568 turbines installed, 665 under construction (2.4 million households) 15% of UK electricity by 2020 Further potential beyond 2020 RenewablesUK (2012) 5

6 Why offshore wind? Renewable and clean Safe Relatively unobtrusive Secure source Excellent available resource for the UK Quicker planning permission process Renewables popular after 1973 energy crisis First offshore wind farm: Denmark

7 Offshore Wind in the UK Round Year Sites Capacity sites 1.5GW strategic areas 7GW zones 31GW Source: The Crown Estate (2012a and 2012b) 7

8 Offshore Wind in the UK Source: The Crown Estate (2012a and 2012b) 8

9 Current and future offshore wind farm locations Source: This is Scunthorpe 9

10 Problems with offshore wind farm Cost Weather Visual instruction Bird life Defence radar equipment Loss of fishing area Shipping lanes Fluctuation of electricity generation Reliability 10

11 Tidal Power Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland Installed MW 11

12 Tidal lagoon Swansea Bay (240MW) Completed

13 Wave power Prototype Powerbuoy ( ) Off coast of Hawaii (150kW) 13

14 Renewable Energy Research Projects 14

15 2OM Offshore Operations & Maintenance Mutualization University of Le Havre (Lead Partner) ISEL (School of Logistics, University of Le Havre) ENSM (Maritime School of Le Havre) University of Portsmouth University of Plymouth CRITT Transport & Logistics Project Timing:

16 2OM WP1: Design of decision support tool for offshore wind Building Network of Experts Mapping of Offshore Wind Supply Chain Defining and Mapping Stakeholders Mapping of Training Needs Mapping of port capacities in Interreg zone Development of Decision Support Model Input: Characteristics of wind farm Output: Facilities and resources required 16

17 2OM WP2 Optimising the Maritime Space Define principles of security of navigation Development of optimal maintenance planning model Transportation Routes Workforce Levels Sharing of results with maritime stakeholders 17

18 2OM WP3 Optimising the Life Cycle of an Offshore Wind Farm Mapping of the supply chain for the whole life-cycle A study of dismantling options of a wind farm Identification of cost reduction measures during life cycle A mathematical model for optimising life cycle costs 18

19 2OM WP4: Communication Website development Focus Group Event(s) Publicity Material 2OM Forum and conferences Training on tools produced 19

20 Leanwind Logistic Efficiencies and Naval architecture for wind Installations with Novel Developments (LEANWIND) EU FP7 project, 10M, Dec 13 Dec partners led by University of Cork Aim: to examine all aspects of the offshore wind sector in order to apply LEAN methods University of Portsmouth role develop logistics optimisation models: Onshore Supply Chain Port Optimisation Construction Phase Offshore Supply Chain Maintenance Planning 20

21 Channel Mor EU Interreg capitalisation project Building on a number of existing MRE projects 12 Partners led by Bretagne Developpement Innovation 1,069,353 Ends January 2015 Objectives Focuses on all renewable marine energies (offshore, wind, tidal and wave) Support SME s accessing MRE markets Provide Channel area with greater networking opportunities 21

22 Growth in size of wind turbines Source: EWEA (2002) 22

23 Logistical challenges 23

24 Transporting wind turbines by road Source: Renewable energy focus 24

25 Transporting wind turbines by rail Source: ISIS communications 25

26 Costs of offshore wind Source: The Crown Estate (2012c) 26

27 Offshore wind costs Average CAPEX cost: 1.5m/MW (2004) 3.0m/MW (2009) (50% more expensive than onshore) Average OPEX cost: 17-20/MWh (estimate) (around 20% of overall operating costs) Average overall cost: Source: Greenacre et al (2010) 140/MWhr (Target 100/MWh by 2020) 27

28 Why costs of offshore wind have risen Materials and commodities costs Labour costs Currency fluctuations Installation and foundation costs Operation and maintenance costs Supply chain constraints Deeper and further offshore sites Future costs linked with future market size Source: Greenacre et al (2010) 28

29 Areas for cost reduction Introduction of new offshore wind turbines Greater competition Greater activity before installation Greater economies of scale Optimising installation methods 29

30 Maintenance classification 30

31 Annual failure frequency and related downtime of major wind turbine components Source: Scottish Enterprise (2011) 31

32 Characteristics of a successful supply chain Asset growth with economies of scale Quality production processes & standardisation Optimal network planning and facility location Vertical integration Horizontal cooperation & strategic alliances Competitive market with healthy number of suppliers 32

33 Characteristics of a successful supply chain Supplier contracts sharing risks and rewards Performance based contracts Just-in-time local supply of components and parts Pipeline of future work and investment opportunities Efficient reverse logistics process Plentiful supply of local skilled labour On-going research and development Good environmental practice 33

34 Supply chain constraints - offshore wind Growing but uncertain market restricting investment Technological solutions on-going Fragmentation with little co-ordination Market dominated by a few suppliers Financial incentives needed to attract new entrants Limited availability of capital - subsidy Lump sum contracts Contracts means developer can take more of the risk 34

35 Supply chain constraints - offshore wind Key components are made outside the UK Complex globally geographically diverse supply chain Bottlenecks are present (e.g. turbines) Planning permission & funding delays Requirement for trained workforce with relevant skills Need to establish dismantling process/policy Public commitment and support 35

36 Areas where decision analysis can help reduce costs Optimal location of wind-farms Facility location within supply chain Offshore and on-shore transportation modelling Optimal scheduling and vehicle routing for maintenance Reverse logistics for dismantling 36

37 References/Bibliography Blanco, M. I. (2009). The economics of wind energy. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 13(6), BVG Associates (2010) Value breakdown for the offshore wind sector: a report commissioned by the Renewables Advisory Board. Available at [Accessed on 10/7/2013]. BWEA (2007). UK offshore wind: moving up a gear. Winter Available at [Accessed on 10/7/2013]. DECC (2011). UK Renewable Energy Roadmap. July Department of Energy and Climate Change. EWEA (2006). Wind energy - the facts (part III). The economics of wind power. European Wind Energy Association. Greenacre, P., Gross, R., Heptonstall, P., (2010). Great Expectations: The Cost of Offshore Wind in UK waters. UK Energy Research Centre, London. Heptonstall, P., Gross, R., Greenacre, P., & Cockerill, T. (2012). The cost of offshore wind: Understanding the past and projecting the future. Energy Policy, 41, LWFL (2010) LINCS Offshore Wind Farm Decommissioning Plan. On behalf of Lincs Wind Farm Limited. December Available at [accessed on 9/12/14]. Marsh, G. (2007). What Price O&M?: Operation and maintenance costs need to be factored into the project costs of offshore wind farms at an early stage. Refocus, 8(3), Mott MacDonald (2010) UK electricity generation costs update. June Available at [Accessed on 10/7/2013]. Pearson, D (2001). Decommissioning Wind Turbines In The UK Offshore Zone. Available at [accessed on 9/12/14]. Renewable UK (2012). Wind energy in the UK: state of the industry reports October Royal Academy of engineering (2004) the cost of generating electricity. Available at [Accessed on 10/7/2013]. Scottish Enterprise (2011). Offshore wind factsheet: overview of the wind farm project. Available at [Accessed on 10/7/2013]. The Crown Estate (2012a). UK offshore wind report Available at [Accessed on 10/7/2013]. The Crown Estate (2012b). Round 3 offshore wind site selection national project levels. May Available at [Accessed on 10/7/2013]. The Crown Estate (2012c). Offshore wind cost reduction pathway. June Available at [Accessed on 10/7/2013]. 37