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1 Scientific Support to the Danube Strategy Textmasterformate durch Klicken Zweite Ebene Dritte Ebene Vierte Ebene Fünfte Ebene Sustainable water-borne transport: Danube navigation economics Anja Scholten Ulm, 27th Oct 2015

2 Inland navigation a cross cutting topic Ecology Textmasterformate durch Klicken Zweite Ebene international Dritte Renewable EbeneLow CO2 Vierte energy Ebeneemission Fünfte Ebene Economy Well suited for mass-cargo (e.g. wood chips) Needs water-ways Sediments Fine dust emission Low land forrests Inland Navigation Water-demand potential conflicts Cheap way of transport Power plants Free capacity Agriculture Drinking water

3 Who uses inland navigation along the Danube? Textmasterformate durch Klicken Zweite Ebene Dritte has 15%; Romania Ebene raised it's share to over 20% in 2011 ZKR Marketobservations 2013 Vierte Ebene Fünfte Ebene In most countries Inland Navigation has a share of 5-10% in total transport; Serbia Share (%) of inland navigation in total transport Year Hungary Croatia Austria Slovakia Romania Serbia

4 Who uses inland navigation along the Danube? Textmasterformate durch Klicken Zweite ZKR Marketobservations; Ebene WESKA 2006 Dritte Ebene Vierte Ebene Fünfte Ebene The total transport amounts are highest in Romania and Bulgaria 40 Transport on the Danube Transport amount (Mio t) Upper Danube Germany Austria Main- Danubechannel (Kehlheim) Middle Danube Hungary Slovakia Croatia Serbia Low er Danube Romania Bulgarien Moldova Ukraine Region

5 Who uses inland navigation along the Danube? In Romania raw material for steel and building industry as well as fuel and agricultural products are transported most (similar in Bulgaria and Austria) Textmasterformate durch Klicken Zweite In Hungary agricultural Ebene products dominate Dritte Ebene Vierte Ebene Fünfte Ebene typical mass-cargo affine industries Lacking: containerized products and chemical industry ZKR Marketobservations; WESKA Amounts of Cargo by Category Transport amount (t) Agricultural Products Foodstuffs, animal fodder Solid Mineral Fuels Oil and oil based products Ore and pig iron for iron and steel industry Iron and Steel Products Crude and manufactur ed minerals, building materials Fertilisers Chemicals Machinery, transport equipment, manufactur ed articles Category Austria Bulgaria Hungary Romania Slovakia Croatia

6 How reliabel is inland navigation and its price development on the Danube? Textmasterformate durch Klicken Zweite Ebene Dritte Ebene Vierte Therefore: Ebene Statistical and economic analysis Fünfte Ebene Impact of changing water-levels on transport factors Strength of connection between changing water-levels and transport factors Connections of water- and freight-price-levels for the Danube Estimation of economic losses due to low water-levels

7 Impact of changing water-levels on transport factors Textmasterformate durch Klicken Zweite Ebene Dritte Ebene Vierte Ebene Fünfte Ebene Changes in transport-factors with every 10cm reduced water-level for the gauge Kienstock, Austria; Source: own calculations based on BMLFUW ( ); Statistik Austria ( ) Lower water level leads to: A reduced degree of capacity utilization (-0.6% per 10cm in average) A reduced transport amount per ship (-12t per 10cm in average) A reduced total transport amount (except for transport within Austria) (-1733t per 10cm in average) An increased number of ships (except for transit through Austria) (+0,84 ships per 10cm in average)

8 Strength of connection between changing water-levels and transport factors Textmasterformate Danube durch Klicken Rhine Zweite Ebene Dritte Ebene Vierte Ebene Fünfte Ebene Comparison of key variables of the Rivers Rhine (right) and Danube (left) and their correlation with local water-levels; Source: own calculation based on Statistik Austria ( ); Mannheim (2008); Lebensministerium ( ); BfG (2008) For both rivers minimum of ~40%, maximum of ~80% degree of capacity utilization Strong connection for both rivers Also calculated for: Transport amount of ships (strong corr), Number of ships (weak corr) Expectation: as there is a strong connection between degree of capacity utilization and water-level, there should be a strong connection to freight prices as well

9 Connections of water and freight price levels Clustered data Textmasterformate durch Klicken Zweite Ebene Dritte Ebene Vierte Ebene Fünfte Ebene Connection of freight-prices and water-levels (gauge Kienstock, Austria) on a monthly basis - upstream Danube; Source: own calculations based on Frachtenspiegel ( ) and BMLFUW ( ) Result for clustered data: For all connections freight prices increase with decreasing waterlevels (correlations between -0.9 and -0.6) though not strictly linear There is a (strong) connection between freight prices and water-levels. The regression equation for each connection could be used to calculate (theoretical) average freight prices depending on the water-levels and a model could be build to estimate the total economic impact of changing water-levels.

10 Estimation of economic losses due to low water-levels How much less cargo is transported during low water periods? Textmasterformate durch Klicken Zweite Ebene Dritte Ebene Vierte Ebene Fünfte Ebene Delta in transport amounts from average transport amounts at water-levels above 280cm for the transport from the Netherlands to the Danube region; reference gauge: Kienstock; Source: own calculation based on Frachtenspiegel ( ), BMLFUW ( ) and Statistik Austria ( ) up to t less are transported from the Netherlands to Austria per month in other months, especially in 2008, the normal transport capacity is not fully used, most likely due to economic reasons

11 Estimation of economic losses due to low water-levels To which additional costs do low-water-periods lead? Textmasterformate durch Klicken Zweite Ebene Dritte Ebene Vierte Ebene Fünfte Ebene Additional expenses for transport via inland navigation from Hungary to Netherlands by month and year compared to a reference year with average freight prices for water-levels above 280cm; depending on shipping amounts and freightprices per waterlevel and changing waterlevels (gauge Kienstock); Source: own calculation based on Frachtenspiegel ( ), BMLFUW ( ) and Statistik Austria ( ) Additional costs can be add up to (November 2010) per month But: in few months the costs are up to lower than average (June 2012)

12 Estimation of employment connected to inland navigation Textmasterformate durch Klicken Zweite 6000 Ebene Dritte Ebene 5000 Vierte Ebene Fünfte 4000 Ebene number of employees in inland navigation Romania Germany Bulgaria freight transport Hungary Slovakia Czech Republic passenger transport Austria Slovenia Croatia People directly employed by inland navigation in the Danube region by country in 2011; Source: public/---ed_dialogue/---sector/d ocuments/publication/wcms_ pdf A relatively small number of people are directly employed inland navigation BUT: in Germany almost 70times as many employments are directly or indirectly connected to inland navigation (about 1.1% of total employment) (

13 Textmasterformate durch Klicken Zweite Ebene Dritte Ebene Vierte Ebene Fünfte Ebene Few people are directly employed inland navigation directly BUT: in Germany almost 70times as many employments are directly or indirectly connected to inland navigation (about 1.1% of total employment) Transferred to other Danube countries (valid?) this leads to almost 1 million of people connected to inland navigation number of employments directly or indirectly connected to in inland navigation Estimation of employment connected to inland navigation Romania Germany Bulgaria Hungary Slovakia Czech Republic Austria Directly or indirectly connected employment on land Slovenia Croatia Number of people who's workplace is directly or indirectly linked to inland navigation in the Danube region by country; Source: Estimate based on ---ed_dialogue/---sector/documents/publi cation/wcms_ pdf cht/archiv/2005/august/artikel/bedeutungder-binnenschifffahrt-fur-deutschlandund-europa/

14 Take away: Inland navigation has a share of 1/5 in total transport in some Danube countries (Romania) Textmasterformate durch Klicken Zweite Ebene Dritte Ebene Vierte Ebene Fünfte Ebene Is especially important for steel and building industry as well as agriculture in the area Transport amounts, degree of capacity utilization and freight prices are strongly linked to water-levels Low water levels lead to an economic loss (higher freight prices) and reduced transport capacities About 1% of all workplaces are directly or indirectly linked to inland navigation (in Germany - > transferable?)

15 Textmasterformate durch Klicken Zweite Ebene energy concept? Dritte Ebene Vierte Ebene Fünfte Ebene Can/Should inland navigation be used as a link in a sustainable Does the comparatively slow inland navigation fit to purposes of modern economy? Should more modern inland navigation e.g. of containerized goods be raised? Should new ship types, that are less impacted by low water periods be developed?

16 Veranstaltung Textmasterformate durch Klicken Zweite Ebene Dritte Ebene Vierte Ebene Fünfte Ebene Thank you for your attention! Dr. Anja Scholten University of Würzburg / HTWG Konstanz anja.scholten@uni-wuerzburg.de Tel: / Copyright Foto: Benno Rothstein