Luis Martinez International Transport Forum

Transcription

1 Luis Martinez International Transport Forum Photo: Wiki commons

2 Model framework International Trade (world regions)* Centroids Mode split Weight model Assignment to routes by mode Model steps sequence Model by commodity type (19 classes) Outputs: International trade in weight by OD pair International trade tonne-km by OD pair and mode * Source: OECD Economics Directorate

3 Production/consumption centroids Based on Population density, regional GDP and minimum influence area of 500 km within the country The model considers 294 centroids

4 Model framework International Trade (world regions)* Centroids Mode split Weight model Assignment to routes by mode Model steps sequence Model by commodity type (19 classes) Outputs: International trade in weight by OD pair International trade tonne-km by OD pair and mode * Source: OECD Economics Directorate

5 Network model Infrastructure and routes a) Road (highways or main roads) b) Rail (station, network) c) Sea (ports, routes) d) Air (airports, commercial flights) Differential speeds by mode, infrastructure and continent Links between modes (including dwelling times) and to centroids OpenStreetMap, OpenFlights, Sea Project, UCL

6 [Billion tonne-km] Shift in world freight patterns Evolution of international trade in tonne-km ( 350% increase ) Australia + New Zealand Africa Latin America and Caribbean Imports Exports ASEAN Other Europe China Euro Area + UK Other Asia USA + Canada

7 Average distance [km] Sea predominance maintains, but Evolution in mode share and in average distance of international trade Tonne-km by mode (2050) % 0.2% 0.1% 1.8% Air Rail Road Sea Road international freight share would increase about 40% with current infrastructure, while freight average hauling distance increase by 17%

8 Freight volume patterns change ( )

9 North Atlantic remains important, but

10 North Pacific surpasses North Atlantic volume

11 Strong increase in volume in the Indian Ocean and the Suez Canal

12 Significant future pressure for inland connections, especially in Asia and Africa

13 Relevance of domestic transport linked to international freight 90% 10% Domestic transport linked to international trade International freight volume Increase of 10% from 2010 to 2050 This domestic component transport represents linked a large to international share of total trade hinterland relevance freight presents volume (national great variability, and international) depending on in some the geographic countries: location of the main China world producers/consumers o 9% 2010 can grow up to 11% China: 2050 (9%): (if coastal Coastal pattern of GDP concentration concentration of activity mantains) United States of America India: o 16% (14%): 2010 can Less grow coastal up to 40% concentration 2050 of activity

14 First insights Strong increase of international trade related freight in Asian countries The main freight corridor may shift from the North Atlantic to the North Pacific Generates significant volume also in the hinterland links between countries and within continents o Increase of road volume without infrastructure improvements Domestic transport linked to international trade represents a significant component of overall international freight volume (10%) Relevance of connections from/to ports This component requires targeted policies to mitigate its impact

15 Other modelling future work Ubiquitous urban shared mobility Replace all individual and bus mobility by shared taxis o Assess urban car fleet required and system s performance Pax and Vehicles in System Vehicles Pax

16 Other modelling future work International passenger air traffic forecast model World flight services potential/real network Demand forecasting Assess the impact of the sector