FREIGHT AND INTERMODAL SYSTEMS

Transcription

1 FREIGHT AND INTERMODAL SYSTEMS FREIGHT AND INTERMODAL SYSTEMS ARE MAJOR DRIVERS OF OUR ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INVESTMENTS ARE NEEDED FOR US TO BE COMPETITIVE IN THE FUTURE. OVERVIEW This section summarizes the analysis of the demand for freight and intermodal systems within the region. The intermodal system was previously discussed in Part One of this report. The needs that resulted from this forecast of future demand are discussed in Part Three. Additional detail is provided in Technical Memorandum #5 Freight Modeling. CURRENT SITUATION The level of connectivity to the North Florida region is a significant economic advantage for our region. I-95 serves as the major highway gateway to Florida s 19.5 million persons. I-10 connects our region along an eastwest route to the southwest, western states, and Pacific Ocean. A third interstate, I-295 serves as a beltway around Jacksonville that connects both of these interstates and provides direct access to major JAXPORT marine terminals at Blount Island and Dames Point and rail intermodal facilities for CSX and Norfolk Southern railroads. I-75, the nation s central spine connecting Florida, southeastern and mid-western states is located 60 miles to the west of our region. North Florida also provides the rail gateway into Florida. Norfolk Southern and FEC railroads have their Florida termini in North Florida. CSX s and FEC both maintain their corporate headquarters in North Florida. Genesee & Wyoming Inc., which operates major short line railroads across the US and in Australia, maintains its operations headquarters in Jacksonville. 2-47

2 CURRENT FREIGHT MOVEMENTS North Florida is the origin or destination of freight moving over roadways and railways in Florida and the Southeast U.S. The total shipments that originate in, are destined for, or travel through North Florida are summarized in Table This data is based on the U.S. Department of Transportation s Freight Analysis Framework data. The top origins and destinations for truck or rail shipments are summarized in Table 2-17 and Table Table Total Tons of Commodities (millions of tons per year Origin and Destination Truck Rail Total Percentage Internal to area % Originates in area and is destined for locations within Florida % and is destined for locations outside Florida % Is destined for the area And originated from within Florida % And originated from outside Florida % Port related % Through traffic % Total % Mix Percentage 84% 16% 100% Source: Freight Analysis 2012 data. Table Top and Origins and Destinations of Truck Freight Passing through North Florida Through Origins Through Destinations Locations Tonnage Mix Locations Tonnage Mix Florida Locations Polk County 10% Miami-Dade County 14% Miami-Dade County 8% Polk County 5% Hillsborough County 7% Hillsborough County 4% Palm Beach County 4% Orange County 3% Broward County 4% Orange County 2% Out of State Savannah, GA 13% New York, NY 12% New York, NY 5% Baltimore, MD 5% Baltimore, MD 4% Boston, MA 4% Charleston, WV 2% Philadelphia, PA 4% Savannah, GA 3% Other Origins 39% 47% Total 100% Total 100% 2-48

3 Table Top Origins and Destinations of Rail Freight Passing through North Florida Through Origins Through Destinations Locations Tonnage Mix Locations Tonnage Mix Florida Locations Polk County 7% Polk County 13% Hillsborough County 5% Orange County 11% Manatee County 3% Hillsborough County 11% Miami-Dade County 3% Miami-Dade County 10% Martin County 5% Alachua County 3% Sumter County 3% Brevard County 3% Broward County 3% Out of State Charleston, WV 8% New York, NY 3% Lexington, KY 8% Chicago, IL 7% Atlanta, GA 6% Birmingham, AL 5% Macon, GA 3% Other Origins 45% 35% Total 100% 100% 2-49

4 TRUCKING About 84 percent of all freight moved within the region is moved on trucks. North Florida has a large internal truck market (both the origins and the destinations are within North Florida. North Florida roadways handle million tons of freight each year. Freight originating in North Florida that is moved by truck is split between break-bulk, bulk and containerized commodities. About 43 percent of the freight destined for North Florida is bulk cargo with the balance split between break-bulk and bulk cargo. A significant amount of cargo shipped by truck in our region is not from or destined for North Florida travels but is shipped to destinations in central Florida and southeast Florida. About 61 percent of the through freight traveling through North Florida is break-bulk cargo 29 percent is bulk and 10 percent is in a container. PORTS About 12.3 million tons of freight are handled each year by the ports in North Florida. The cargo includes freight that is originating in or destined for the six-county region and cargo that uses the port but originates or is destined for another location in the US. International shipments account for 71 percent of cargo handled by North Florida ports. Over 74 percent of the imports are from the Caribbean or South America. Of these international shipments, 55 percent is destined for distribution and consumption in North Florida. About 4.7 million tons of cargo exported from the US passes-through the region each year. Of these, 59 percent of the freight originated in one of the top ten markets summarized in Table 2-14 or Table The container market is 47 percent of the shipments. The balance is split between bulk and break-bulk cargo. About 9.3 million tons of international cargo imported to the US pass through North Florida. Domestic waterborne cargo is handled at public and private terminals in North Florida and 62 percent of the tonnage is petroleum and petroleum products. RAIL Most of the rail cargo shipped in North Florida originated outside of Florida and is consumed within North Florida. AIR CARGO In 2012, air cargo operators moved more than 0.75 million tons of air cargo through Jacksonville International Airport. The typical commodities shipped by air are high value and time sensitive. An emerging market for air cargo is Asia. The largest growth in air cargo is anticipated to be exports of Florida citrus, Vidalia onions, peaches and fish from the Caribbean. Flowers from Columbia are the largest import good. Air cargo delivered on underutilized aircraft flying to Asia represents the greatest recent growth in air cargo. Cargo exported through North Florida ports totals 4.9 million tons. About 75 percent of the market is to the Caribbean. North Florida is the largest origin for international shipments that travel through our ports with an 11 percent market share. Of the exports that move through North Florida ports, 80 percent are containerized. More than 70 percent of the freight originating in North Florida is exported using ports in North Florida. This means 30 percent of the freight is exported through a port outside of North Florida. For example, some of the goods produced in North Florida are driven to the Port of Savannah and exported for consumption in other markets. 2-50

5 FUTURE FREIGHT DEMAND INTRODUCTION Freight forecasts were used in the development of the truck model in the NERPM-AB and to identify potential needs for freight and intermodal infrastructure to support economic development. The modeling update and future needs are discussed later in this report. FORECASTING METHODOLOGY Historically, the demand for freight shipments and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP and Gross State Product (GSP the equivalent considering only the economic productivity in Florida are highly correlated. Therefore, the first step in developing a forecast for the regional freight movements was to forecast the anticipated growth in GDP and GSP for Florida. The based forecasts are appropriate for estimating the total movement of commodities that include trips that are shipped by rail and port intermodal. Figure 2-4 shows the basis of the forecast used in continuous annual growth rates. In the figure, the acronyms used are for the Congressional Budget Office (CBO, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD and Toronto Dominion Bank (TDB. The historical growth is shown as HIS growth. The average of the forecasted growth rates shown on the dashed line show the basis of the forecasts provided in this report. 2-51

6 Figure 2-4. Summary of GDP Forecasts 2-52 GDP forecasts were used as basis for freight forecasts.

7 PORT INTERMODAL The forecast of intermodal rail originating and destined for JAXPORT and Port of Fernandina Facilities is based on published historical 20-ft Equivalency Units (TEU and rail intermodal market analysis. Two levels of forecasts were prepared: a moderate and a more aggressive forecast. The moderate split uses a growth factor of 1.25 times the GDP growth in freight movements. The aggressive forecast uses a factor of 1.75 times GDP. The more aggressive forecast anticipates a greater shift of freight movements moving by intermodal rail than by truck movements today. Table 2-19 shows a summary of historical data as reported by the American Association of Port Authorities (AAPA and the moderate and aggressive forecasts for loaded commodities in TEUs. For the areas outside the Jacksonville area, two forecast splits were developed for both the moderate forecast and the aggressive forecast. Conservative estimate: Assumes that today 10 percent of the total TEU imports and exports are shipped via rail. This rate is increased by 0.4 percent annually High estimate: Assumes that today 20 percent of total TEU imports and exports are shipped via rail. This rate is also increased by 0.4 percent annually. The percent of TEUs shipped via rail ranges from 8 percent to 18 percent for the conservative estimate, or 16 percent to 26 percent for the high estimate. Two TEU forecasts for loaded containers were developed for the Jacksonville and Fernandina ports. In addition to the loaded TEUs that are imported and exported empty TEUs are also moved - primarily to the Jacksonville Ports. Many of the TEU s are from the Jacksonville area, but many also travel from locations beyond North Florida to our ports. These historical data were used to estimate the number of imported, exported and empty containers traveling through the ports in North Florida. Figures 2-5 thru 2-9 on the following pages summarize the forecasts. Table Summary of TEUs for North Florida Port Facilities (JAXPORT and Port of Fernandina TEUs Import TEUs 139, , , ,830 Export TEUs 376, , , ,393 Total loaded TEU's 515, , , ,223 Empty TEUs* 262, , , ,455 Empties as percent of Total Loaded 51% 49% 49% 52% Average % past 4 years 50% * Empties are not defined as imported or exported 2-53

8 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 - Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Actual (AAPA Loaded TEUs 2,847,947 Vickerman Moderate Forecast (Loaded TEUs Moderate Forecast (Loaded TEUs only only Vickerman Aggressive Forecast (Loaded TEUs Aggressive Forecast (Loaded TEUs only only 2030, 1,628,602 1,903, , 927, , 1,272, , 848, , 618, Figure 2-5. Moderate TEU Port Forecast 2-54 TEUs per year

9 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 - Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Aggressive Forecast 2040, 4,271,920 Imports Exports Empties Total TEUs (Loaded + Empties 2030, 2,442, , 1,391, Figure 2-6. Aggressive TEU Port Forecast Loaded and Empties 2-55

10 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 - Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Imports Moderate Forecast Exports Empties 2040, 2,855,333 Total TEUs (Loaded + Empties 2030, 1,909, , 1,273, , 927, Figure 2-7. Summary of 2040 Moderate TEU Port Forecast Loaded and Empties 2-56

11 RAIL RAIL INTERMODAL The mix of the forecasted TEUs that travel via rail, both to and from North Florida, as well as to and from areas outside North Florida, is based on U.S. Department of Transportation s Freight Analysis Framework published data. The assumptions with the moderate and aggressive forecasts vary. Moderate forecast: Assumes that today 10 percent of the total TEU imports and exports are shipped via rail. This rate is increased by 0.4 percent annually Aggressive forecast: Assumes that today 20 percent of total TEU imports and exports are shipped via rail. This rate is also increased by 0.4 percent annually. The percent of TEUs shipped via rail ranges from 8 percent to 18 percent for the conservative estimate, or 16 percent to 26 percent for the high estimate. Table 2-20 summarizes the rail intermodal forecasts. Figures 2-10 and 2-11 show this information graphically. Table Summary of Rail Intermodal Forecasts Moderate or Rail Intermodal TEUs Conservative Aggressive Incremental TEUs shipped via rail 68, , ,902 TEUs shipped outside the metro area 70, , ,952 TEUs shipped within the metro area 7,653 65,716 98,318 Total TEUs 728,697 1,090,

12 800, , , , , , , ,000 - Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan 2040, 212,484 Incremental TEU's shipped via Rail (Conservative Rate vs. High Rate 2040, 450, , 65,716 TEUs shipped outside the Metro area - Conservative Range TEUs shipped within the Jacksonville Metro area 2025, 112, , 171, , 68, , 21, , 70, , 7, Figure Moderate Forecast of Rail Intermodal 2-58

13 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 - Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Incremental TEU's shipped via Rail (Conservative Rate vs. High Rate 2040, 317, , 673,952 TEUs shipped outside the Metro area - Conservative Range 2040, 98,318 TEUs shipped within the Jacksonville Metro area 2025, 133, , 202, , 68, , 25, , 70, , 7, Figure Aggressive Forecast of Rail Intermodal 2-59

14 RAIL CARLOAD Similar to the rail intermodal growth forecast, rail carload movements are also anticipated to grow. This growth will be less than the increase of rail intermodal because of the anticipated shift between carload and intermodal and the consumption orientation of the carload shipments within these areas. This growth is anticipated to be 2.0 percent to 2.2 percent per year or a growth factor of 2.7. TRUCK INTERMODAL FORECASTS TRUCK TRIPS AND VOLUMES Using the port and rail intermodal forecasts and existing truck counts at the entrances to the major intermodal facilities, a worksheet model was prepared to estimate the truck movements between each of the major intermodal facilities within the region. To build a truck trip table between each of the regional intermodal facilities, the following steps were performed. The existing truck volumes at the entrances to the intermodal facilities were estimated based on the FDOT Traffic Online database. Using the market and information developed through the cargo and logistics demand forecast, the ratio of truck movements between intermodal facilities was estimated. External truck volumes were identified at the major external nodes within the NERPM-AB. After establishing the base year truck flows, growth rates were forecast using growth rates based on the following assumptions. GROWTH RATES Where gross domestic product is highly correlated to the overall growth in commodity movements, population growth also serves as a reasonable basis for estimating the growth of the internal-internal truck trips. For external truck trips that remain in Florida the forested population growth in Florida was used. Both growth factors were based on the University of Florida s Bureau of Economic and Business Research medium growth forecasts. These growth factors are summarized in Table Table Growth Factors for Trucks 2011 BEBR (millions 2040 BEBR (millions Growth Factor (GF Internal GF based on population growth External GF based on population growth in Florida

15 An anticipated shift in truck to rail intermodal traffic based on industry trends is anticipated to occur. With this shift, a growth factor of 3.08 was used to reflect the change in rail intermodal demand versus truck trip growth. This shift explaining the basis for the growth rate is discussed in greater detail in the rail intermodal forecasting section. In addition, two major shifts in truck movements associated with intermodal shipments were assumed: The opening of an intermodal container transfer facility near Blount Island requires trucks to leave the port gate by truck. These containers are then shifted to the rail network for short-haul movement to the CSX Intermodal Facility or long-haul movement by rail. The delivery of containers to the intermodal container transfer facility by truck is anticipated to be small with most of the regional port-related container shipments being delivered to the CSX Intermodal Facility. Neither the FEC nor Norfolk Southern railroads are anticipated to use the Intermodal Container Transfer Facility. The second Dames Point intermodal terminal is anticipated to be open by the year 2040 and operating near capacity similar to the existing intermodal terminal. Table 2-19 summarizes the anticipated intermodalrelated truck movements in the year TRUCK MODEL IN THE NERPM-AB In addition to forecasting the overall goods movement and intermodal shipments which were of particular concern within the region, the truck component of the NERPM-AB was updated. These updates were based on data from the freight and intermodal demand forecasts, statewide freight model and the truck model in the NERPM-AB. The statewide freight data is obtained from the statewide freight model, while the freight data associated with the ports within the NERPM-AB area was obtained by conducting a study of the commodity flows at the Jacksonville and Fernandina ports. In the NERPM- AB, the data associated with the ports is located in the JAXPORT input file. The JAXPORT file distributes trips to the ports and the intermodal facilities. Trips associated with the intermodal facilities are generated by the port but also by the statewide freight model. The model distributes the trips from these two sources based on percentages. These percentages are placed in the JAXPORT file. One input percentage is associated with each of the intermodal facilities, while the other percentage results in the model calculating how many of the port trips go to the intermodal facilities. This percentage represents the distribution of truck freight volumes (port and statewide among the different intermodal facilities. The total number of freight trips associated with the different intermodal facilities in 2010 and 2040 were shown in Table 2-22 on the next page. These data were converted to percentages to distribute the freight truck trips tables which are then added to all the other trip tables by the model and assigned to the highway network. The resulting truck volumes are shown on Figure 2-10 and AIR CARGO Florida Trade and Logistic Study (2011 and Florida and Metro Forecast published by the University of Central Florida anticipate that air cargo within the region will increase by 45 percent between now and the year This forecast will largely be driven by population growth within the region. Air cargo accounts for less than 1 percent by volume shipped in the region, but may be as high as 4 percent of the total value of goods. In the NERPM-AB there are three types of freight data sources, (1 the statewide freight data on the interstate system, (2 the freight destined to the Jacksonville and Fernandina ports within our study area and (3 the truck trips that are related to distribution of goods and services within our study area. The third group is calculated by the model based on residential and employment input data. 2-61

16 Table Summary of Truck Model Inputs Port Terminal 2040 Blount Island 761 Dames Point 305 Dames Point Total 1,371 Trucks bound to an intermodal facility at CSX, Norfolk Southern or FEC. 2-62

17 q A nq 16 1 Legend A Year 2010 Base Year Total Average Daily Truck Volume q < ,000 1,001-2, ,001-3,000 > 3, A Railroad System Roadway System Water Bodies Conservation Lands Six Counties Boundaries 200A 25A 225A LJXUH 2010 Truck VolumeV Date: 7/11/ Airport q Amtrak Station n Passenger Rail Station n n ,560 Feet 3 6 Miles

18 q A nq 16 1 Legend A Year 2040 No Build Total Average Daily Truck Volume q < ,000 1,001-2, ,001-3,000 > 3, A 75 Railroad System Roadway System Water Bodies Conservation Lands Six Counties Boundaries A 25A 225A Date: 7/11/2014 LJXUH 2040 Truck VolumeV Airport q Amtrak Station n Passenger Rail Station n n ,560 Feet 3 6 Miles