Is rail freight facing a structural decline both from supply and demand sides?

Transcription

1 4 th Research Seminar on Rail Regulation Is rail freight facing a structural decline both from supply and demand sides? Pr. Yves Crozet Laboratoire d Economie des Transports (yves.crozet@let.ish-lyon.cnrs.fr Presented by Prof. Guihéry Laurent, University of Cergy-Pontoise 1

2 Contents 1 Rail freight: EU objectives 2 Rail freight traffic: short term and long term tendencies 3 A structural decline? 4 - recovery, rebound Still going better thank to newcomers on the market! 2

3 1) To achieve this challenge : we need «cultural and industrial revolution» in some countries : allready started with ERTMS! We need economic / industrial growth!

4 Road haulage : challenging and innovative partner for rail : «seafaring people» : adapt, react, suffer, live together, solidarity! DIFFICULT FOR RAIL

5 2. Rail Freight and modal split: an irresis<ble decline? Modal share of freight transport in Europe (%) Road Rail Waterborne Pipeline Source: Eurostat 5 Trucking = innovating : uberisation, logistic innovations NEW : Comité National Routier ( is starting a Logistics Observatory Interurban coaches will carry goods! FREIGT MARKET REVOLUTION IN PROGRESS

6 Rail Freight and modal split: the stylised facts EU 27 Performance by Mode for Freight Transport, (in Billion tonne-kilometres) It is going bener in some coutries that has fully and believe in it - enforced European reforms and European regula<on Road Sea Rail Inland Waterway Oil Pipeline Air Source: European Commission 2011

7 Rail freight traffic (Tkm) France : at the center of Europe / Leading member of the European Union but uncoupling / being out of touch with reality 140,0 : -«Burnt field strategy from SNCF (Saint Rambert d Albon ( Beaurepaire) ; short distance (OFP) 130,0 possible : Why closing???? - closing rail junction 120,0 - QUALITY of TRAINS PATHS : VERY LOW AVERAGE SPEED / Priority Passengers - GEODIS 110,0 trucking (instead of intermodal rail) - Ouibus : COACHES!! 100,0 90,0 EU27 DE FR SE UK 80,0 70,0 60,0 - Train paths are SUBSIDIZED! 7 50, Source: Eurostat

8 Focus on rail freight traffic Competition on the market Germany saw liberalization as a way to support rail France Modal share rail Germany : + 1,6 pts, thereof 1,2 from competitors France! EMERGENCY! Germany Billion t-km Transport Minister: «Toward 100 Gtkm!» - 29 % Billion t-km % Total rail traffic National traffic International traffic Imports and Exports Transit Sources : SOeS, SBA Graphs S. Séguret, 2009

9 Yes, we can do more freight rail in Europe!

10 3) Structural decline? Demand Side: only mature or declining markets? Old demand for rail. Coal, raw material, cereals, steel, chemical and dangerous products no future? New demand for rail? Containers and intermodal flows? Role of ports? Polarisa>on on main axes (Eurotunnel, North-South, Dourges, Hinterland strategies with ports, Betuweroute, ) Towards niche markets? Rail freight relevancy limited to some special markets (containers on long distance, chemical products, rail motorways, e.g. BeMembourg Perpignan, etc.) No future for single wagons? Xrail ini>a>ve, new types of wagons, local freight operators and global demand for rail freight 10

11 emand Side: only mature or declining markets? Strategic analysis of products transported by rail Market Degree of market maturity Current rail posi<on Poten<al for growth in rail share Coal Mature and stable Dominant Limited Aggregates Mature and stable Strong for longer distance flows Metals Mature and stable/declining Strong for certain submarkets Petroleum Mature and stable (un>l 2008) Strong for high volume flows where no pipelines exists Moderate Moderate Limited Automo<ve Mature and stable (un>l 2008) Low Considerable Waste Mature and stable/declining Low Limited Intermodal Channel tunnel Other general freight Source: UK, D9, Dynamic and growing (un>l 2008) Significant share of deep sea; low share of other uni>sed Dynamic and growing (un>l 2008) Very limited Variable generally mature for other bulk, but growing for parcels and pallets Very considerable Very considerable Variable but generally limited Variable greatest poten>al where volumes can be aggregated

12 Supply Side: from declining to innova<ve organiza<ons? Only 3 segments for rail freight Rail is compe<ng with waterborne, not really against road Difficult organisa<onal changes 12

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14 Intramodal compe<<on : in some countries, we need a cultural and industrial revolu<on Rail freight s market share (%) Belgium Austria France Germany Italy Netherlands Switzerland Sweden UK Source: Eurostat 14

15 3 different segments for rail freight Intermodal service, or shuttle service for containers and trailers between city pairs or a port and a city. (Oligopolistic characteristics) Industrial solutions are tailor made by traction providers for big shippers, e.g. iron ore, coal, steel, cars and petroleum products. The critical mass to start is one customer (Competition) Single-wagonload is a network service which offers freight wagon transport from anywhere to anywhere (Monopolistic characteristics) 15

16 IDEAS ERA and Shift2Rail on the track Key issue : network recovery : very poor condition in France : ERTMS, renovation, modernisation, «safety»! Marshall plan : transfer of (Corridor/Freight) Rail Network at the European Union level : ASSETS of the EU then full financing in all member states : industrial and cultural revolution Ports hinterland strategies and rail corridors : Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, Bremen, Le Havre (it means no «Seine Nord waterway») : Vallee Seine Rouen Le Havre gestartet CHOC : New dedicated INFRA to connect EUROTUNNEL with DOURGES intermodal plateform : 100 km dedicated freight short line to be build Services and industrial innovation : «start up» spirit in rail 16 activities