Sustainable silk roads: a supply chain perspective. Ussal Sahbaz 12 December 2014

Transcription

1 Sustainable silk roads: a supply chain perspective Ussal Sahbaz 12 December 2014

2 Sustainable silk roads: a supply chain perspective Slide 2 Agenda Evolution of global supply chains Drivers, Conditions, Outcomes Supply chain connectivity over the Modern Silk Road Hardware vs software Public private partnerships Istanbul Tehran Islamabad Train BALO project Security risks Iskenderun Haifa Amman corridor Road-map G20: Turkey in 2015 & China in 2016

3 Bay A Bay B Sustainable silk roads: a supply chain perspective Bay C Bay C Falling transport and ICT costs triggered Source: Baldwin (2011). the revolution of global value chains Figure 8: Trade costs (left, ) & ICT indicators (right, ) Averge global trade cost measure Global trade flow (right scale in logs) billions Number Internet Hosts (right scale, in logs) Phone subscribers Slide Internet Users

4 s, industrialized nations meant high-wag Slide 4 nations are industrializing faster than high-wage seven have gained more than one percentage po - China, Korea, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Turk Sustainable silk roads: a supply chain perspective Global value chains led manufacturing industry move to emerging economies over this period. v Apart from India, all of their m the international supply chains of Japan (the Ea Share of global manufacturing GDP 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% RoW 6 EMs, 1990, 6% G7, 1990, 65% 47% 25% Source: unstat.un.org, 2005 prices; 6Ems = China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Turkey and Poland; Korea (which gained 3 points) is in RoW. Figure 2: Global manufacturing shares and t

5 Sustainable silk roads: a supply chain perspective Slide 5 Proximity and connectivity are essential for diffusion of global value chains

6 Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Turkey France Germany UK USA Sustainable silk roads: a supply chain perspective Slide 6 How connected are the Silk Road Countries? UNESCAP International Supply Chain Connectivity (ISCCI) Index, annual 2006 and Source: ESCAP International Supply Chain Connectivity (ISCC) Index iscc2006 iscc2014

7 Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Uzbekistan Azerbaijan Armenia Turkey France Georgia Germany United Kingdom United States Sustainable silk roads: a supply chain perspective Slide 7 Software is as important as hardware Trading Across Borders Time to (export), (days) annual, 2006 and Source: World Bank, Doing Business

8 Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Kyrgyz Republic Azerbaijan Armenia Georgia France United States Germany United Kingdom Turkey Sustainable silk roads: a supply chain perspective Slide 8 Software is as important as hardware Trading Across Cost Borders to export (export), (US$ per annual, container) 2006 and Source: World Bank, Doing Business

9 Sustainable silk roads: a supply chain perspective Slide 9 An example of a software failure: How would you ship your cargo from Istanbul to Karachi or Mumbai? Frankfurt Shipping liner service Container train railroad Istanbul via Rotterdam Tehran Islamabad Karachi Dhakka Mumbai

10 Sustainable silk roads: a supply chain perspective Slide 10 Railroads have negligible share as a mode for Turkey s exports Turkey s exports according to transport modes, % Maritime Ground Air Rail

11 Sustainable silk roads: a supply chain perspective Slide 11 Public private partnerships for innovative transport corridor solutions: The case of TOBB/BALO 11

12 Sustainable silk roads: a supply chain perspective Slide 12 Security risks: How would you fly from Istanbul to Amman?

13 Sustainable silk roads: a supply chain perspective Slide 13 Security risks: How can Turkish products go to the Gulf? İskenderun Amman Port Said Duba

14 Sustainable silk roads: a supply chain perspective Slide 14 Towards a road-map Engage all actors in a coherent dialogue framework But let the private sector lead from the outset Prioritize projects by assessing the bottlenecks Avoid misinformation Supporting policies Special economic zones Build institutions: a corridor facilitation/management agency Market readiness: regulatory cohesion, institution building, feasibility studies, Securitization & political risk insurance Invesment facilitation: seed fund and catalyzing private financing Role of G20