e-highway2050 project Cost Benefit Analysis Workshop overview of the project Workshop - the 20 th of March 2014 Brussels

Transcription

1 e-highway2050 project Cost Benefit Analysis Workshop overview of the project Workshop - the 20 th of March 2014 Brussels 1

2 European project e-highway2050 Project : Planning for European Electricity Highways to ensure the reliable delivery of renewable electricity and Pan-European market integration. 40 months project, from September 2012 to December 2015 Workshop CBA overview of e-highway March 2014 Page 2

3 Project Partners TSO Industry e-hw consortium Research Insitute Consulting 28 Direct Partners Workshop CBA overview of e-highway March 2014 Page 3

4 The different Work Packages (WP) of e-highway2050 WP1 WP2 WP3 WP4 WP5 WP6 WP7 WP8 WP9 WP10 Leaders SINTEF AMPRION TECHNOFI REN ELIA Gr RSE DENA RTE ENTSO-E RTE Workshop CBA overview of e-highway March 2014 Page 4

5 The main process of e-hw Scenario definition Scenarios development European Grid model System simulations Grid development Roadmap Workshop CBA overview of e-highway March 2014 Page 5

6 Key concepts of the e-hw scenario Few extreme but realistic scenarios have been defined during year 1 of the project The main criteria used for the selection of the e-highway2050 scenarios were : a Scenario is relevant when it challenges the entire existing European electricity system, not just the grid the selected scenarios should substantially differ from each other, in coherence with the identified boundary conditions some of the Scenarios should challenge the electricity system in a way which differs from the current state of affairs They are defined by a verbal description and an energy mix at EU level. Workshop CBA overview of e-highway March 2014 Page 6

7 The key dimensions of the scenarios : Efficiency Demand : Transfer of use Variability +/- Generation Distributed +/- Workshop CBA overview of e-highway March 2014 Page 7

8 Overview of the 5 extreme but realistic scenarios Large scale RES Big and market large fossil fuel 100% RES el. small and local Large scale RES: focus on the deployment of large-scale RES technologies. A high priority is given to centralized storage solutions accompanying large-scale RES deployment. High GDP growth and market-based energy policies: Internal EU market, EU wide security of supply and coordinated use of interconnectors for cross-border flows exchanges in EU. CCS technology is assumed mature. Large fossil fuel deployment with CCS and nuclear electricity: electrification of transport, heating and industry is considered to occur mainly at centralized (large scale) level. No flexibility is needed since variable generation from PV and wind is low. 100% RES electricity: 100% based on renewable energy., with both large scale and small-scale, links with North Africa. Thus, both large-scale storage technologies and small-scale storage technologies are needed to balance the variability in renewable generation. Small and local: The focus is on local solutions dealing with de-centralized generation and storage and smart grid solutions mainly at distribution level. Workshop CBA overview of e-highway March 2014 Page 8

9 Overview of the 5 extreme but realistic scenarios +15% +50% Large scale RES 100% RES Demand Ref scenario large fossil fuel Big and market small & local 100% High efficiency -30% -12% 30% RES 5% 60% DistG Workshop CBA overview of e-highway March 2014 Page 9

10 The scenarios development Scenario definition Scenarios development European Grid model System simulations Grid development Roadmap Workshop CBA overview of e-highway March 2014 Page 10

11 The scenarios development: example X5 Large scale RES X-5 - European Energy Share Wind 17% Solar (with CSP) 4% 43% Biomass 18% 5% 13% Nuclear Thermal Hydro North Sea % EU-load: 8 % 48% North Europe 40% 8% 3% 1% 0% Load: 368 TWh Balance: 86% West Europe Central Europe East Europe 38% 5% 7% 4% 4% 42% Load: 1711 TWh Balance: -9% 19% 42% 6% 16% 9% 8% Load: 1177 TWh Balance: -40% 15% 3% 26% 10% 3% 43% Load: 521 TWh Balance: 10% South Europe South West Europe 17% 6% 39% Africa % EU load: 8 % 33% 35% 14% 17% 7% Load: 687 TWh Balance: -28% 10% 7% 0% 15% Load: 807 TWh Balance: -43% Workshop CBA overview of e-highway March 2014 Page 11

12 The grid options Large scale RES large fossil fuel Big and market 100% RES small & local Workshop CBA overview of e-highway March 2014 Page 12

13 The main steps of the project: The present situation Localisation of power (G/D/E) per country and cluster March / April 2014 congestions without grid reinforcement By June 2014 Scenario definition Quantification of Scenarios European Grid model System simulations Grid development Roadmap 5 scenarios selected By June clusters By end 2013 Cost Benefit Analysis (WP6) Technologies (WP3) Implementation & operation (WP4) Workshop CBA overview of e-highway March 2014 Page 13

14 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!