Applying Micro-simulation i tools for Project Development- University of Florida Traffic Seminar Jaimison Sloboden, PE RS&H

Transcription

1 Applying Micro-simulation i tools for Project Development- Documentation ti & QA/QC University of Florida Traffic Seminar Jaimison Sloboden, PE RS&H

2 Overview Principles Types of Projects Correctly Scoping the Model Spatial limits it Temporal limits Budgeting the work Maintaining Credibility in the Process verifiable and reproducible Documentation QA/QC 95 Express-Case Study

3 Traffic Engineering Principles Knowledge of Traffic Flow Theories Knowledge of the Right Tool for the Right Job Verifiable & Reproducible Strategic Use of Automation Pass the Dish -Share your Ideas Redundancy

4 Jaimie s Nuggets of Wisdom If you don t have the time to do it right the first time, when are you going to have the time to do it over again? Begin with the End in Mind Verifiable and Reproducible Don t do as I do, do as I say

5 Definition of Quality Quality is never an accident, it is always the result of: High Intentions Sincere Effort Intelligent Direction Skillful Execution

6 The Problem Spending in Highway construction is declining Ability to expand Highways is limited it for environmental and right-of-way constraints Vehicle Miles of Travel is growing

7 Practitioner Point of View: Types of Projects Intersection studies Adding capacity Changing intersection Control Adding new intersections Systems and Service Interchange Studies Modifying existing Interchange Type Adding new Interchanges Freeway Corridor Studies Multiple Interchanges Capacity Expansion HOT lane Facilities

8 Why Micro-simulation? HCM techniques do not directly address interaction between facilities Simulation models provide other meaningful performance measurements Travel time VHT/ VMT Animation is a Valuable Communication Tool

9 Traffic Analysis Tools Increased Accura acy Generalized Tables Highway Capacity Manual Synchro Transyt 7f Microscopic Simulation Tools Increasing Effort & DATA

10 Microsimulation 7-step Process 7-step process developed by FHWA Traffic Analysis Tools Team Based on best practices of modeling efforts from around the country Foundation of the FDOT CORSIM Handbook

11 Correctly Scoping the Model Model Limits-Spatial Small Projects Large Projects Congested Urban Areas Model Limits-Temporal Peak 15 minutes Peak periods

12 Boundary Limits: Small Projects

13 Boundary Limits: Congested Urban Freeway Projects Boundary Condition Subject Interchange

14 Model Limits: Temporal I-95 Northbound Mainline Speed Miles Per Hour Entry Exit Entry from to Exit NW from Miami to 2nd HO OV US i Gardens Ave/167th 441 Flyover NB Dr Dr St Exit to HOT Lanes Exit to I-195 Entry fr rom I-195 Exit to NW 62nd St Entry from NW 62nd St Entry from NW 69th St Exit to NW 79th St Entry from NW 81st St Exit to NW 95th St Entry from NW 95th St Exit to NW 103rd St Entry from NW 103rd St Exit to NW 119th St Exit to NW 125th St Entry from NW 125th St Exit to NW 135th St Entry from Opa Locka Blvd Exit to NW 151st St Entry from HOT Lanes Exit to PNR/HOV Exit to Turnpike Exit to Golden Gla ades/sr min data Peak Hour vph by 15-minutes :30 15:45 16:00 16:15 16:30 16:45 17:00 17:15 17:30 17:45 18:00 18:15 time of day

15 Credibility Verifiable & Reproducible Documentation, ti Documentation ti Documentation ti Data Driven Were Traffic Counts, speed studies and observations collected at the same time? Timeliness Will it take a year to complete a modeling project? Cost Effective Will the budget to do a model be reasonable

16 Which Model is Correct?

17 They Both Are Too often, a screen capture of the animation is all the evidence provided for displaying the model results Model of 95 Express, Miami, Fl

18 Animation vs. MOE s Animation is a tool that can be deceptive MOE s should be output driven C C C F F F F F C C C B Exit to PNR 119 vph Entry From Exit To Entry From Exit To Entry From Exit To NW 125 St NW 135 St Opa Locka Blvd NW 151 St HOT Lane Turnpike 850 vph 684 vph 1112 vph 149 vph 1876 vph 3058 vph C C C C C C D D E F GGI Base Model- Existing Condition se

19 How Do We Use Microsimulation Tools?

20 Base Model Development Systematic Method Documentation requirements Organization Criteria Link node numbering conventions

21 Calibration Objective of Calibration To achieve adequate reliability or validity of model by establishing suitable parameter values that replicated local traffic conditions. Calibration Approach It is a two-step process change the model parameters, run the model and check statistics. If statistics are acceptable, the model is calibrated. If not, modify the model until the statistics are acceptable The approach consists of three steps Modifying known global parameters Modifying local or link length parameters Global changes - unknowns

22 SOU UTHBOUND I-494 Link Description Link Geometrics Car From To Receiv- Follow- Node Node ing Length Speed ing From To Node Factor 107 SB I-494 WB I-94/694 On Ramp WB I-94/694 On Ramp ### ### Bass Lake Road Off Ramp ### ### 112 Bass Lake Road Off Ramp Bass Lake Road On Ramp Bass Lake Road On Ramp Rockford Road Off Ramp Rockford Road Off Ramp Rockford Road On Ramp Rockford Road On Ramp Actual (detected) Speed Simulated Speed 125 TH 55 Off Ramp TH 55 Off Ramp TH 55 On Ramp TH 55 On Ramp County Road 6 Off Ramp County Road 6 Off Ramp County Road 6 On Ramp County Road 6 On Ramp Carlson Parkway Off Ramp Carlson Parkway Off Ramp Carlson Parkway On Ramp Carlson Parkway On Ramp WB I-394 Off Ramp WB I-394 Off Ramp WB I-394 On Ramp WB I-394 On Ramp EB I-394 Off Ramp EB I-394 Off Ramp EB I-394 On Ramp EB I-394 On Ramp Actual (detected) Speed Simulated Speed Minnetonka Blvd Off Ramp Minnetonka Blvd Off Ramp Minnetonka Blvd On Ramp Minnetonka Blvd On Ramp WB TH 7 Off Ramp WB TH 7 Off Ramp WB TH 7 On Ramp WB TH 7 On Ramp EB TH 7 Off Ramp EB TH 7 Off Ramp EB TH 7 On Ramp EB TH 7 On Ramp TH 62 Off Ramp TH 62 Off Ramp TH 62 On Ramp Actual (detected) Speed 164 TH 62 On Ramp Simulated Speed Valley View Road Off Ramp Valley View Road Off Ramp SB I Model Run 1: Base Default Car Following Factors Estimated Free 70 Flow Speeds

23 SOUTHBO OUND I-494 Link Description Link Geometrics Car From To Receiv- Follow- Node Node ing Length Speed ing From To Node Factor 176 SB I-494 WB I-94/694 On Ramp WB I-94/694 On Ramp Bass Lake Road Off Ramp Bass Lake Road Off Ramp Bass Lake Road On Ramp Bass Lake Road On Ramp Rockford Road Off Ramp Rockford Road Off Ramp Rockford Road On Ramp Rockford Road On Ramp TH 55 Off Ramp TH 55 Off Ramp TH 55 On Ramp TH 55 On Ramp County Road 6 Off Ramp County Road 6 Off Ramp County Road 6 On Ramp County Road 6 On Ramp Carlson Parkway Off Ramp Carlson Parkway Off Ramp Carlson Parkway On Ramp Carlson Parkway On Ramp WB I-394 Off Ramp WB I-394 Off Ramp WB I-394 On Ramp WB I-394 On Ramp EB I-394 Off Ramp EB I-394 Off Ramp EB I-394 On Ramp EB I-394 On Ramp Minnetonka Blvd Off Ramp Minnetonka Blvd Off Ramp Minnetonka Blvd On Ramp Minnetonka Blvd On Ramp WB TH 7 Off Ramp WB TH 7 Off Ramp WB TH 7 On Ramp WB TH 7 On Ramp EB TH 7 Off Ramp EB TH 7 Off Ramp EB TH 7 On Ramp EB TH 7 On Ramp TH 62 Off Ramp TH 62 Off Ramp TH 62 On Ramp TH 62 On Ramp Valley View Road Off Ramp Valley View Road Off Ramp SB I Model Run 12 ### ### ### Actual (detected) Speed Simulated Speed Car Following Factors modified 70 Free Flow Speeds modified Actual (detected) Speed Simulated Speed Actual (detected) Speed Simulated Speed

24 Carrying forward Calibration Parameters to Future Designs

25 Error Checking Model Review Overview Two Parts Modeler Requirements CDOT Reviewer

26 ISO 9001 What is ISO 9001? ISO 9001:2008 is part of the ISO 9000 family of standards, and is the document that lists the requirements an organization must comply with to become ISO 9001 Registered. ISO 9001 is an internationally recognized Quality Management System. ISO 9001:2008 is focused on meeting customer expectations and delivering customer satisfaction so you must pay attention to the customer. ISO9001 evaluates whether your quality management system is appropriate and effective, while forcing you to identify and implement improvements. Continuous improvement assures your customers benefit by receiving products/services that meet their requirement, and that you deliver consistent performance. Internally, the organization will profit from increased job satisfaction, improved morale, and improved operational results (reduced scrap and increased efficiency). Meeting legal and regulatory requirements benefit the community.

27 Error Checking - Modeler Requirements What is the Requirement of Modeler Independent d review of models should be conducted prior to submittal to CDOT Error checking involves various reviews of the coded network, coded demands, and default parameters The analyst should document the errors and the approach and techniques used for resolving them

28 Error Checking - Modeler Requirements Error checking proceeds in three basic stages: Reviewing software errors Reviewing input data Reviewing animation Modeler Required to document inputs for CDOT Review

29 Error Checking - Modeler Requirements Reviewing Software Errors Should use the latest t version and patch of CORSIM Check the McTrans website for known problems, issues, and updates of TSIS/CORSIM (

30 Error Checking/QA-QC/Model Review Reviewing Input Data Take help from another analyst to detect t data coding errors Data entry errors, eg. entering turn percentage 63% instead of 36% will have a huge impact on the outcome Changing the default values to represent actual travel conditions, eg. Different posted speed values will have impact on level of service

31 Error Checking - Modeler Requirements Reviewing Freeway Input Data Node locations and link lengths Accel/Decell lane lengths Number of lanes and lane alignment Lane drops/lane adds Ramp meter locations Ramp meter timings Free flow speeds Curvature Grades

32 Error Checking - Modeler Requirements Reviewing Arterial Input Data Link distances, Stop bar to Stop bar Lane utilization Storage lane lengths Free flow speeds Signal timings Reviewing Traffic volume Input Data Prepare volume database in spreadsheets for easy review

33 Error Checking/QA-QC/Model Review Reviewing Animation Run the animation at extremely low demand d Trace unexpected slow down of vehicles Uncharacteristic vehicle behavior such as unexpected braking Run the animation 50% of the existing demand level Check for congestion, if occurs then it indicates coding error Check entry/exit links flows through the network

34 Error Checking - Modeler Requirements Documentation QA/QC Sheets (display of geometry inputs) Diagrams and schematics Confirmation (QA) that Quality Control was conducted

35 Model Review - CDOT Objectives? Goals Ultimately our goal is to correctly analyze and evaluate projects that can move forward in the planning, design, implementation, and operations phase. Discussion

36 Model Review CDOT Expect that models are turned in with accompanying documentation Be systematic with Review Process Standardized checklists Reject inadequate model submittals (Don t waste your time!) Formally Accept and acknowledge good modeling efforts Look for Common Mistakes

37 Model Reviewer Checklist Create a TSIS project folder on local hard drive, copy *.trf (CORSIM input files) into TSIS projects folder Run a single *.trf file with animation activated. If Fatal Errors are observed and the *.trf file does not run, contact the submitter and stop all reviews until a working file with the correct documentation is re-submitted. If the model runs go to next step Review warning messages that are posted in the dialogue box, these will be green text. Warning Messages that require attention and corrective action include the following Warning messages associated with warning signs being located beyond the start of the freeway The model must reach equilibrium Warning messages that indicate vehicles are altering there intended path, e.g. they miss their destination Warning messages indicating no agreement between the calculated link length and the input link length Review Global Parameters in *.trf file. If these parameters are adjusted then look for corresponding documentation as to why those parameters were modified. d

38 Model Reviewer Checklist Conduct Cursory Review of Animation Compare model documentation of Geometry against the animation Review desired d traffic volume inputs against model animation display of inputs Review signal timings in model against documentation Observe Animation, look for expected congestion, look for unexpected congestion If gross error s are observed stop all reviews, provide information to submitter and continue with the review after the model and documentation is re-submitted. If there are no Gross Error s continue review Thorough Review of model inputs Compare lane schematic and link-node information against QA/QC forms Compare Volume Databases against model inputs If there are error s in coding stop all reviews, provide information to submitter and continue with the review after the model and documentation is re-submitted. If there no errors continue review.

39 Model Reviewer Checklist Review model outputs Review the summaries of model outputs t provided. Compare results to field observations (if the model is the calibrated model). Do the results make sense? Locations where the results are suspect examine the animation closer If there are model coding issues and/or issues with the performance of the model, inform the submitter of the issues and discuss a course of action. When the issues are resolved move to the next step. Model Approval

40 Model Reviewer Most Common Issues 1. Traffic Volume Inputs incorrect 2. Geometry Incorrect 3. Traffic Data Incorrect. Look at RT 50 s 4. Signal Timings incorrect or less than optimal 5. Traffic Patterns (volumes) do not seem right, look at O-D or conditional turning % s 6. No congestion? Check volume inputs 7. No congestion after checking volumes, review model limits

41 Verifying Geometry Blue dots are the model nodes, They do not match real world coordinates. Background image in TRAFED was off by 20%!

42 Model Reviewer Exercise Open up *.TRF files Run models Look at documentation

43 95 Express

44 95 Express Spatial Limits Terminal Access Segment (1/2 Mile) Managed Lane System (10 Miles) Intermediate Access Segment (1/2 Mile) Terminal Access Segment (1/2 Mile)

45 Temporal Limits: Northbound Peak Periods I-95 - NORTHBOUND DIRECTION AM PEAK PERIOD PM PEAK PERIOD 15 Min Intervals-95 St 15 Min Intervals-SR Min Intervals-62 St 15 Min Intervals-79 St 15 Min Intervals-103 St 15 Min Intervals-125 St 15 M in Intervals-151 St 15 Min Intervals-6 St 15 Min Intervals-Golden Glades 15 Min Intervals-183 Flow Rate (vph) Time of Day HOURLY TRAFFIC VOLUME VERSUS TIME OF DAY I-95 - NORTHBOUND DIRECTION FIGURE

46 No Calibration Establish Calibration Measures of Effectiveness and Statistical Targets [See Section 6.5] Establish Known Global Parameters [See Section 6.3] Calibrate: Critical Congested Points Key Bottlenecks [Freeways Section 6.3] [Arterials Section 6.4] Calibrate: Traffic Volumes Calibrate: System Performance (Speeds) Are All Calibration Targets Met? Yes Process Within Each Calibration Step Field MOE s Acceptable Match? Yes Go to Next Calibration Step Model is Calibrated Model MOE s No Adjust Model Parameters Iterative Process Calibration Targets Less then 5% error in volumes Approximate the speed profile Replicate congestion Primary adjustments Car Following Factors link level Warning Signs

47 Speed Calibration

48 Existing Base Model Operations: PM Peak Northbound

49 Access Justification Critical Design Features Existing freeway congestion Ingress/egress design Proximity of service interchanges Traffic Analysis Results NB HOT intermediate access at NW 81 st Street

50 Traffic Analysis Results 81 st Street Intermediate Access

51 Northbound 81 st Street Ingress/Egress

52 Proximity to Local Access I-95 Northbound NW 81st St NW 95th St Interchange Spacing 10 interchanges/8 miles = 1 ¼ mile 81 st on-ramp to HOT access 1,350 feet Weaving lane length 770 feet HOT access to 95 th Street off-ramp 550 feet

53 Operational Consideration Type A Weave Type C Weave

54 NB HOT Access at 81 st Street Operational Characteristics Type C Weave 4 Service Interchanges 950 vph Exit to HOT Lane 2,200 Entry from I-195 Flyover I-95 Northbound 2,900 2,500 2,500 Exit to Exit to PNR 100 Flyover 1,500 2,200 Exit to Turnpike 10,000 7,800 NW 81st St 7,300 7,800 NW 95th St 7,900 6,600 Entrances From Ramp Vol. Weave Vol. I-195/SR 112 NW 62nd St NW 69th St NW 81st St 2,350 vph 780 vph 260vph 870vph 465 vph 198 vph 67 vph 220 vph Total 4,260 vph 950 vph

55 NB HOT Access at 81 st Street Operational Characteristics Type A Weave 950 vph + 1,400 vph I-95 Northbound Exit to HOT Lane 2,200 Entry from I-195 Flyover 2,900 2,500 2,500 Exit to PNR Exit to 100 Flyover 1,500 Exit to Turnpike 2,200 10,000 7,800 NW 81st St 7,300 7,800 7,900 6,600 NW 95th St 2,900 1,500 2,500 7,300 7,800 6,400

56 NB HOT Access at 81 st Street Operational Characteristics Type C Weave 6 Service Interchanges 1,400 vph Exit to HOT Lane 2,200 Entry from I-195 Flyover I-95 Northbound 2,900 2,500 2,500 Exit to PNR Exit to 100 Flyover 1,500 Exit to Turnpike 2,200 10,000 7,800 NW 81st St 7,300 7,800 NW 95th St 7,900 6,600 Exits to NW 95th St NW 103rd St NW 119th St NW 125th St NW 135th St NW151st St Total Ramp Vol. 445 vph 660 vph 680 vph 390 vph 685 vph 150 vph 3,010 vph Weave Vol. 234 vph 234vph 234 vph 234 vph 419 vph 45 vph 1,400 vph

57 NB HOT Access at 81 st Street Operational Characteristics Type C Weave 4 Service Interchanges 950 vph Type A Weave 950 vph + 1,400 vph Type C Weave 6 Service Interchanges 1,400 vph I-95 Northbound Exit to HOT Lane 2,200 Entry from I-195 Flyover 2,900 2,500 2,500 Exit to PNR Exit to 100 Flyover 1,500 Exit to Turnpike 2,200 10,000 7,800 NW 81st St 7,300 7,800 NW 95th St 7,900 6,600 Entrances From I-195/SR 112 NW 62nd St NW 69th St NW 81st St Total Ramp Vol. 2,350 vph 780 vph 260vph 870vph 4,260 vph Weave Vol. 465 vph 198 vph 67 vph 220 vph 950 vph Exits to NW 95th St NW 103rd St NW 119th St NW 125th St NW 135th St NW151st St Total Ramp Vol. 445 vph 660 vph 680 vph 390 vph 685 vph 150 vph 3,010 vph Weave Vol. 234 vph 234 vph 234 vph 234 vph 419 vph 45 vph 1,400 vph

58 NB HOT Access at 81 st Street Lane Schematic CORSIM Results

59 NB HOT Access at 81 st Street Lane Schematic CORSIM Results

60 NB HOT Access at 81 st Street Results Summary Type C Weaves Add Congestion to General Purpose Lanes (GPL) GPL Congestion Causes HOT Congestion HOT Speed Reduction and Egress Queuing Speed Differential is Safety Concern