Preliminary Cost-Benefit Analysis

Transcription

1 Preliminary Cost-Benefit Analysis CS#8 PENS Pan-European Network Service Bo Redeborn Principal Director ATM 9 July 2013

2 CBA Method Preliminary CBA at feasibility stage to assess value of the CS concept CBA compares 2 scenarios: Current best case fragmented implementation inc. FAB deployments and SESAR Common Project deployments Deployment of Centralised Service For robust CBA, uncertainties addressed through conservative assumptions: High for Centralised Service Scenario Low for Fragmented scenario

3 CBA Method (2) CBA quantifies impact of deploying CS on aviation stakeholders: ANSP, EUROCONTROL, Airlines and other Airspace Users CBA takes account of Investment costs, Operating and Maintenance Operational benefits such as fuel burn, ATCO productivity and QoS The cost and benefit impact of time to operations Not included in the CBA: knock on effects on costs and benefits of enabling better performance (e.g. better data quality will lead to improvement of services) Impact of tendering the services. The competition in tendering, can lead to best innovative solutions in the most cost efficient conditions An external company will validate EUROCONTROL CBAs

4 CBA Scenarios Fragmented Deployment: Each ANSP and FAB has their own IP communication infrastructure and supervision centre ensuring the interface with their neighbouring states and other stakeholders. Centralised Service: One common pan-european network and central supervision for ANSP and NM with dedicated interfaces with other community networks (airlines, military, airports etc.) meeting SWIM requirements. Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis CS#8 4

5 CBA Dates Fragmented Deployment (full migration to IP inc voice plus gateways) Development Development Deployment Start Operations Full Operations CBA Time Horizon N/a N/a On-going On-going Centralised Service (CS#8) Feasibility Phase Development Deployment Start Operations Full Operations CBA Time Horizon Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis CS#8 5

6 Centralised Service vs Fragmented Pan-European Network Services (PENS) Operational Benefits Investment Operating & Maintenance Transition ATCO & Time to Operations Fuel burn / Route Extension CO2 Tax Savings ATCO productivity QoS (Capacity, Delay..) CS #8 is an enabler and does not have direct operational benefits. CS#8 enables the introduction of further improvements by providing a common European infrastructure. CS#8 provides the connectivity means for the other CS Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis CS#8 6

7 PENS centralised service will achieve cost reduction through lower investment, operating & maintenance costs Transition costs of running two systems in parallel are also considered Investment costs Operating & maintenance costs Transition costs ATCO costs Time to operations PENS CS investment cost is 12 vs. 20 M in fragmented deployment scenario PENS CS estimated to cost 23M vs. 38M in fragmented scenario Cost of keeping 2 systems running in parallel 2 years: 48 M No impact No impact Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis CS#8 7

8 Preliminary Cost-Benefit Analysis Results CS#8 PENS Pan-European Network Service

9 Deployment of PENS Centralised Service reduces European ANS costs by 15 M a year Total cost saving with CS#8 is 138 M in Fragmented Deployment Annual Operating Operational Benefits Cumulated Cost M Not quantified 491 M undiscounted CS#8 PENS Centralised Service Annual Operating 23 M Operational Benefits CS #8 is an enabler and does not have direct operational benefits. Cumulated Cost M undiscounted Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis CS#8 9

10 Cumulated Cost of CS#8 becomes lower than Fragmented Scenario from 2021 reaching total cost saving of 138 M by 2030 Millions of Euros 600,00 500,00 400,00 300,00 200,00 100,00 Cumulated Cost of Fragmented vs Centralised Deployment , CS8 Centralised (Cumulated undiscounted) Fragmented Scenario (Cumulated undiscounted) Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis CS#8 10