Engineering ~'1. Lecture Notes in. R. Rackwitz, P. Thoft-Christensen (Eds.) IFIP 76

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1 ~'1 ~. IFIP 76 Lecture Notes in Engineering Edited by C. A. Brebbia and S. A. Orszag R. Rackwitz, P. Thoft-Christensen (Eds.) Reliability and Optirlization of Structural Syster1s '91 Proceedings of the 4th IFIP WG i.5 Conference Munich, Germany, September , 1991 I Springer-Venag Benin Heidelberg New York.. London Paris Tokyo - Hong Kong Barcelona Budapest

2 Series Editors C. A. Brebbia. S. A. Orszag Consulting Editors J. Argyris. K.-J. Bathe' A. S. Cakmak. J. Connor' R. McCrory C. S. Desai K.-P. Holz. F. A. Leckie' G. Pinder A. R. S. Pont J. H. Seinfeld. P. Silvester P. Spanos' W. Wunderlich S. Yip Editors Prof. ROdiger Rackwitz Technical University of Munich ArcisstraBe Munich 2 Germany Prof. Palle Thoft-Christensen University of Aalborg Sohngaardsholmvej 57 OK Aalborg Denmark ISBN-13: : / e-isbn-13: This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, re-use of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in other ways, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is only permitted under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and a copyright fee must always be paid. Violations fall under the prosecution act of the German Copyright Law. International Federation for Infoonation Processing, Geneva, Switzerland, 1992 The use of registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Typesetting: Camera ready by author 61/ Printed on acid-free paper.

3 PREFACE This proceedings volume contains 38 papers presented at the 4th Working Conference on "Reliability and Optimization of Structural Systems", held at the Technical University of Munich, Germany, September 11-13, The Working Conference was organised by the IFIP (International Federation for Information Processing) Working Group 7.5 of Technical Committee 7 and was the fourth in a series, following similar conferences held at the University of Aalborg, Denmark, May 1987, at the Imperial College, London, UK, September 1988 and at the University of California, Berkeley, California, USA, March The Working Conference was attended by 54 participants from 16 countries. The objectives of Working Group 7.5 are: to promote modern structural systems optimization and reliability theory, to advance international cooperation in the field of structural system optimization and reliability theory, to stimulate research, development and application of structural system optimization and reliability theory, to further the dissemination and exchange of information on reliability and optimization of structural systems to encourage education in structural system optimization and reliability theory. At present the members of the Working Group are: A. H.-S. Ang, U.S.A. G. A ugwti, Italy M. J. Baker, UK P. Bjerager, Norway C. A. Cornell, U.S.A. R. B. Coroti~, U.S.A. A. Der Kiureghian, U.S.A. o. Ditlev~en, Denmark D. M. Frangopol, U.S.A. H. Furuta, Japan S. Garribba, Italy M. Grigoriu, U.S.A. M. Grimmelt, FRG N. C. Lind, Canada H. O. Mad&en, Denmark R. E. Melcher~, Australia F. Mo~e~, U.S.A. Y. Murouu, Japan A. S. Nowak, U.S.A. R. Rackwitz, FRG C. G. Soare~, Portugal J. D. SlIren~en, Denmark P. Thoft-Chmten~en (chairman), Denmark Y. K. Wen, U.S.A: Members of the Organizing Committee were: P. Bjerager, Norway R. B. Corotu, U.S.A. A. Der Kiureghian, U.S.A. Y. Murouu, Japan R. Rackwitz (eo-chairman), Germany P. Thoft-Chmtemen (eo-chairman), Denmark

4 IV The Working Conference received financial support from IFIP, Technical University of Munich, and University of Aalborg. On behalf of WG 7.5 and TC-7 the co-chairmen of the Conference would like to express their sincere thanks to the sponsors, to the members of the Organizing Committee for their valuable assistance, and to the authors for their contributions to these proceedings. Special thanks are due to Mrs. Kirsten Aakjrer, University of Aalborg, for her efficient work as conference secretary, and to Mrs. Gisela Kick, Technical University of Munich, for her valuable assistance in carrying out local organizational matters. November 1991 R. Rackwitz P. Thoft-Christensen

5 CONTENTS Lectures Bridge Loading, Reliability and Redundancy: Concepts and Applications D. M. Frangopol Recent Developments in Stochastic Finite Elements A. Der Kiureghian, C.-C. Li, Y. Zhang Simulation in Time-Invariant and Time-Variant Reliability Problems R. E. Melchers Numerical Techniques for Design Sensitivity Analysis of Structural Systems J. L. T. Santos Reliability Analysis in Ship Design C. Ostergaard Short Presentations Life Cycle Model for Offshore Installations. J. Almlund Foundation Reliability of Anchor Block for Suspension Bridge E. Y. Andersen, B. S. Andreasen, P. Ostenfeld-Rosentha.I Structural Reliability Analysis by Stochastic Dependence Models and Matriceal Techniques 141 A. D. Ccirausu, A. N. Vulpe A Survey of the Reliability Methods Approach in Some Codes for Structural Design. 153 T. Cllmielewski Factors in Structural System Reliability..... R. S. De, C. Allin Cornell Effectivity Factor Method in Structural Reliability O. Ditlevscn, T. Arnbjcrg-Nielsen Reliability Method to Solve Mecllarucal Problems with Implicit Limit States I\. El-Tawil, M. Lemaire, J.-P' Muzeau Strategies for Optimal Design of Structural Systems Enevoldsen, J. D. S(lJrensen A Probabilistic Approach to the Analysis of Composite Panels Containing Delaminations 207 D. J. Fitzsimmons Fatigue Life Estimation of Existing Bridge using 3-D FEM and Live Load Simulation 219 H. Fhruta, K. Sugiura, E. Watanabe, T. Nakahara Bayesian Model Assessment: Methods and Case Studies P. Geyskcns, A. Der Kiurcgllian, P. Monteiro III

6 VI Multicriteria Optimization of Elasto-Plastic Bar Structures. S. Jendo, J. Putresza First Excursion Probabilities for Low Threshold Levels By Differentiable Processes 251 C. Lange Reliability Analysis of Structural Systems by using the Stochastic Finite Element Method 267 J.-S. Lee Selection and Refinement of Random Field Mesh in Finite-Element Reliability Methods 285 P.-L. Liu Experiences in System Reliability Optimization Including Damage Constraints. Y. W. Liu, F. Moses On the Distribution of Local Extremes, Ranges and Means of Gaussian Process. S. Naboishikov Reliability of Girder Bridges A. S. Nowak, N. M. Aroichane Reliability Evaluation Methods for Systems with Complex Limit States 325 S. Shao, Y. Murotsu Reliability-Based Optimum Design for Multiaxial Fiber Reinforced Laminate Systems 339 S. Shao, M. Miki, Y. Murotsu The Reliability of Bar Structures in the Light of the Shakedown Theory 351 P. Sniady, S. Zukowski Reliability of the Bridge with Respect to Fatigue Crack Propagation 363 R. Sieniawska, P. Sniady Reliability Based Inspection Strategy for a Highway Bridge A. M. Sommer, A. S. Nowak, P. Thoft-Christensen Optimal Inspection and Repair Strategies for Structural Systems 383 J. D. S~rensen, M. H. Faber Incremental Load Formulation for Generating Limit States in the Reliability Analysis of Non-Linear Systems Y.-L. Wu, T. Moan On the First Excursion Probability with Random Threshold 403 Z. Zembaty Stochastic Programs for Reliability of Systems with M-P Interaction J. J. Zimmermann, R. B. Corotis, J. Hugh Ellis MBB-LAGRANGE: A General Structural Reliability and Optimization Structural System 427 R: Zotemante1 A Comparison of Some Algorithms for Reliability Based Structural Optimization and Sensivitity Analysis H. O. Madsen, P. Friis Hansen Stochastic Approximation Methods in Structural Design (, Marti Cost Optimal Design of a Bridge Pier Foundation. 465 H. O. Madsen, P. Friis Hansen

7 VII Index of authors Subject index