Strategic Long-Term High-Speed and Intercity Passenger Rail Plan: Phase 2 Study Approach

Transcription

1 Presentation To HRTPO Transportation Advisory Committee Meeting Agenda Item #7 Strategic Long-Term High-Speed and Intercity Passenger Rail Plan: Phase 2 Study Approach Presentation By September 1, 2010 Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc.

2 Study Approach RightTrack Existing Databases Capital Costs Interactive Operating Costs Market Engineering Operations Financial Economic Engineering Operating Plan Optional as Required Ridership & Revenue Financial & Economic Report Capacity Train Routes and Speed Scenario Formulation Train Technology and Service Levels Fares, Stations, and Quality of Service 1

3 Database Development Right-of-Way Railroad Infrastructure Engineering Unit Costs Environmental Scan Railroad Track Charts Unit Cost Database Trains Train Operating Costs,Crews, Station Staff Infrastructure Maintenance Overhead Manufacturers Labor Rates Maintenance Lifecycles Administration O/D Data Networks Socioeconomics Travel Behavior MPO Data U.S. Census Data Statewide Traffic Counts Stated Preference Survey 2

4 Interactive : Cost Assessment In TRACKMAN we will develop detailed information on each route TRACKMAN will estimate the Engineering Capital Costs for each HRTPO alternative Key y inputs: Speeds, curves, grades, rail and highway crossings, and other potential speed restrictions such as moveable bridges All the data is being captured in a consistent computerized format, to facilitate train performance and future line capacity evaluation Sample NS Petersburg Data Create TRACKMAN Database based on Railroad Charts, FRA Grade Crossing Database and Satellite Imagery Field Survey to Verify Conditions and Update TRACKMAN Track Chart Data Adjust Unit Costs to Local Engineering Conditions Develop Specific Infrastructure Proposals and Cost Estimates for each set of track or right of way Speed Improvements and Line Capacity Upgrades Range of Rail Technologies We will estimate Rail Operating Costs LOCO-HAULED BI-LEVEL COACHES DMU Framework resulted from previous multi-year, multi-state planning efforts (e.g., MWRRI and Florida Business Plans) MPH Drivers Train Miles Cost Categories Equipment Maintenance Energy & Fuel Train & Engine Crews OBS Crews Operator Profit TALGO T21 JET TRAIN Passenger Miles Insurance Liability MPH 1 Ridership 1 Fixed Cost Sales & Marketing Station Costs Service Administration Track & ROW Maintenance Feeder Bus Station costs as well as sales and marketing are only affected weakly by ridership, so these two costs can be considered fixed for practical purposes

5 Interactive : Ridership and Revenue Assessment We will use Investment Grade Methodology Base Base Year Year Socio- Socio- Economics Economics Demand Demand Model Model Calibration Calibration Stated Stated Preference Preference Survey Survey Origin- Origin- Destination Destination Data Data Four-Mode Four-Mode Transport Transport Network Network Trip Trip Matrices Matrices Economic Economic Scenarios Scenarios COMPASS Model Structure Base Base Year Year Matrix Matrix Ridership Rail Rail Strategies Strategies Travel Travel Demand Demand Model Model Run Run Forecast Forecast Year Year Trip Trip Matrices Matrices Revenue Revenue Financial Financial User User Benefit Benefit Economic Economic Rent Rent 19 Revenue 4

6 Demand Model Process Auto OD Table Hampton Roads Richmond- Petersburg Other Virginia North Carolina Washington DC-Maryland Northeast Corridor Hampton Roads Richmond- Petersburg Other Virginia Origin- Destination Data North Carolina Washington DC-Maryland Northeast Corridor Boston New York Washington Richmond Newport News Norfolk Four-Mode Transport Network Charlotte 5

7 Demand Model Process 60% Employment Forecast 50% 40% 30% 20% Base Year Socio- Economics 10% 0% Stated Preference Survey 6

8 Interactive : Financial and Economic We will provide Pro forma Financial We will measure USDOT FRA approved economic benefits 7.5 Pro forma Cash Flows The pro forma cash flows are shown in Exhibit 7.7 and Exhibit 7.8. These present the forecasted total revenues and operating expense projections for 2012 through Since these projections are based on the Back Loaded capital plan, operations can t start before This plan includes two years of revenue ramp up at 50% and 90% factors for the first and second years, respectively, so the first year of full operations occurs in 2014*. Exhibit 7.7 Minneapolis to Duluth 110-mph Rail Service: 8-Train Base Plan - Preliminary Operating Statement Thousands of 2006 $ Total to Revenues Ticket Revenue $1,080,230 $13,567 $25,107 $28,659 $29,422 $30,185 $30,948 $31,711 $32,474 $33,236 $33,999 On Board Services $86,418 $1,085 $2,009 $2,293 $2,354 $2,415 $2,476 $2,537 $2,598 $2,659 $2,720 Express Parcel Service (Net Rev) $54,011 $678 $1,255 $1,433 $1,471 $1,509 $1,547 $1,586 $1,624 $1,662 $1,700 Total Revenues $1,220,660 $15,331 $28,371 $32,385 $33,247 $34,109 $34,971 $35,833 $36,695 $37,557 $38,419 Train Operating Expenses Energy and Fuel $75,081 $2,013 $2,013 $2,013 $2,013 $2,013 $2,013 $2,013 $2,013 $2,542 $2,542 Train Equipment Maintenance $204,890 $5,494 $5,494 $5,494 $5,494 $5,494 $5,494 $5,494 $5,494 $6,937 $6,937 Train Crew $96,367 $3,323 $3,323 $3,323 $3,323 $3,323 $3,323 $3,323 $3,323 $3,323 $3,323 On Board Services $80,631 $1,833 $2,295 $2,437 $2,467 $2,498 $2,528 $2,559 $2,589 $2,620 $2,650 Service Administration $147,171 $5,075 $5,075 $5,075 $5,075 $5,075 $5,075 $5,075 $5,075 $5,075 $5,075 Total Train Operating Expenses $604,139 $17,738 $18,200 $18,342 $18,372 $18,403 $18,434 $18,464 $18,495 $20,497 $20,527 Other Operating Expenses Track & ROW Maintenance $114,663 $3,954 $3,954 $3,954 $3,954 $3,954 $3,954 $3,954 $3,954 $3,954 $3,954 Station Costs $40,547 $1,398 $1,398 $1,398 $1,398 $1,398 $1,398 $1,398 $1,398 $1,398 $1,398 Sales & Marketing $51,009 $643 $1,190 $1,358 $1,394 $1,429 $1,465 $1,501 $1,536 $1,572 $1,607 Insurance Liability $43,345 $549 $1,015 $1,158 $1,188 $1,218 $1,248 $1,278 $1,308 $1,338 $1,368 Total Other Operating Expenses $249,564 $6,544 $7,557 $7,868 $7,934 $7,999 $8,065 $8,130 $8,196 $8,262 $8,327 Total Operating Expenses $853,703 $24,283 $25,757 $26,210 $26,306 $26,402 $26,498 $26,594 $26,690 $28,758 $28,854 Cash Flow From Operations $366,957 ($8,952) $2,614 $6,175 $6,941 $7,707 $8,473 $9,239 $10,005 $8,799 $9,565 Operating Ratio

9 Deliverables Strategic Long-Term High-Speed and Intercity Passenger Rail Plan --- Executive Summary Summary of the Business Plan for reference by senior decisionmakers Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Rocky Mountain Corridor Intercity Rail Services Target Markets and Proposed Service Offerings Projected Equipment and Capital Investment Needs Operating Arrangements and Responsibilities Summary of the overall systems to be developed Detailed description of target markets, market segments, associated rail service offerings, fare structures, and proposed ancillary services Summary of equipment and capital investment needs for both the rail service itself and ancillary services Proposed operating arrangement and responsibilities including cooperative agreements, with freight railroads, private sector participation and public/private partnerships Chapter 5 Project Market Penetration, Estimated market penetration by city pair and target market Patronage and Annual Revenues segment, estimated annual patronage and annual revenues for the rail system and associated services Chapter 6 Estimated Operating Costs Projected annual costs including rail service and ancillary operating, equipment, capital and debt service costs Chapter 7 Chapter 8 Chapter 9 Financing Plan and Innovative Financing Options Legal, Regulatory and Institutional Requirements Potential for Added Revenue and Cost Reduction Proposed financing plan including projected private sector contributions. Proforma Financial Statements Assessment of critical legal, regulatory and institutional issues, including recommendations for potential action Identification of potential innovative service arrangements, ancillary service offerings and potential operating procedures designed to either enhance revenue or reduce costs Chapter Strategic Business Plan Long-Term High-Speed Comprehensive Business Plan assessment of the proposed rail and Intercity Passenger Rail Plan system, and assessment of the risk associated with its implementation ---- Appendices Detailed data tabulations supporting individual chapters ---- Presentation Materials PowerPoint Presentation to be given to executives and senior decision-makers 8

10 Proposed Tasks for Phase 2 9

11 Phase 2: Strategic Long-Term High- Speed and Intercity Passenger Rail Plan Work Plan High-Speed and Intercity Passenger Rail Plan 10

12 Task 1: Project Management - Cost: $25,000 Task 1: Project Management - Cost: $25,000 This provides the overall project management, reporting, and liaison functions for the project. This provides the overall project management, reporting, and liaison functions for the project. Task 2: Databases - Cost: $135,000 This provides the critical outstanding data needs associated to answering the key questions on ridership and rights-of-way issues. Market Stated Preference Survey Cost: $65,000 Engineering Rights-of-Way Survey Cost: $15,000 Technology Survey Manufacturers Cost: $5,000 Environment Environmental Scan Cost: $50,000 Task 3: Service Scenarios - Cost: $23,000 This provides the What-If options for passenger rail service and establishes the framework for assessing passenger rail potential. This includes the Rail Alternatives for Enhanced and High- Speed Rail. 11

13 Task 1: Project Management - Cost: $25,000 Task 4: Ridership and Revenue - Cost: $26,000 This provides task requires the overall the calibration project management, of the COMPASS reporting, model and using liaison the functions Stated Preference for the project. Data collected in Task 2, together with the O/D data, Network, and Socioeconomic data gathered in Phase 1. Socioeconomic Growth Gas Prices Congestion Task 5: Rail Service - Cost: $20, This involves the evaluation of the performance of the train given the engineering infrastructure proposals and the service scenarios for each rail option. The analysis will consider train times, train stopping patterns, train frequency, and fare levels. 12

14 Task 6: Operating and Capital Cost - Cost: $30,000 Using the output of TRACKMAN and LOCOMOTION assess the physical quantities needed to operate the train system and then apply unit costs for each element (e.g., labor, resources, etc.) Benchmark the unit costs against actual train operations and completed engineering projects. Task 7: Financial/Economic - Cost: $29,000 Using the revenue and cost data for each option, develop using the RENTS program financial and economic results using the USDOT FRA approved methodology. These include Operating Ratio and Cost Benefit Ratio. Identify potential funding approaches for each project. Task 8: Strategic Long-Term Intercity Passenger Rail Plan - Cost: $27,000 Prepare an overall Strategic Long-Term High-Speed and Intercity Passenger Rail Plan identifying the potential for High-Speed and Enhanced Speed passenger rail service. Describe the assumptions, databases, methodologies used to develop the Strategic Long-Term High-Speed and Intercity Passenger Rail Plan and describe the underlying results that support that concept. 13

15 Task 9: Peer Review e - Cost: $20,000 Justify the Strategic Long-Term High-Speed and Intercity Passenger Rail Plan and its supporting arguments, databases and inputs with a Peer Review team selected by HRTPO. Conduct a peer review meeting/workshop to review each component and ensure its realism, practicality, and reliability for implementation. 14

16 Thank You. 15