Seaborne Traffic in the Strait of Malacca

Transcription

1 Seaborne Traffic in the Strait of Malacca IMSF Conference Singapore 17 April 27 Wally Mandryk Manager Market Intelligence Services Lloyd s Marine Intelligence Unit

2 Outline Data Sources : Trade and Shipping Methodology Key Figures & Trade Dependencies: Who uses and who benefits from using the Strait? Conclusion: The Importance of The Malacca Strait in a Global Context

3 Trade Data Sources UN (COMTRADE) Sitc 4 Digit: 126 Commodities 2, Trade Routes $ Value + Volume in Tonnes, Cbm, Units, Pairs etc Global Insight Trade Database Trade Splits : Seaborne, Overland, Air Seaborne by mode: Container, General, Dry Bulk, Liquid Bulk LMIU Seaborne Crude Oil Database (APEX)

4 Trade Data Issues Standardise Unit of Measurement for Volume Metric Tonnes: Value/Volume Relationships by exporter and mirror reporter De-duplicate Mirror Trades Identify Inconsistencies Benchmark Seaborne Splits Against Observed Shipping Capacity

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6 Shipping Data Sources Lloyd s MIU Shipping Information Database: Fleet Information 91, Live Merchant Vessels > 1 gt Technical Characteristics/Ownership Details Ship Deployment 4 mil. Observed Vessel Movements 4, ports 18, Active Port to Port Routes AIS

7 Matching Trade & Vessels Finding a Common Unit of Measurement Trade: Tonnes, Vessels: DWT Capacity, Establishing Trade Route Specific Commodity/Vessel Type Relationships Identifying Trade Route and Vessel Routeing Correlations Match Trade To Shipping via Allocation Process

8 India Japan Trade & Shipping

9 Deriving Transits Calculate distance for each port to port movement Establish whether transit via Malacca represents the shortest Navigable distance for each movement allowing for: Commercial Practice Operational Constraints Consistency with waypoint observations e.g. canals, AIS Link each transit to a voyage origin and destination in the voyage stack

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13 Transits by Vessel Type Vessel Type Transits % Transits DWT % Dwt Container Dry Bulk/Combi Other Dry Cargo Tanker 19,5 28% 1.9 Bil 55% Total 7, 1% 3.4 Bil 1%

14 Fleet Profile Vessel Type No. Ships DWT (Mil) % World Cargo Fleet (No) % World Cargo Fleet (DWT Container Dry Bulk/Combi Other Dry Cargo Tanker 2, ,6 22% 57% Total 1,17 535,9 24% 55%

15 Mil. Tonnes Top 1 Eastbound Commodities by Volume Million Tonnes 675 Other Fertilizers and Pesticides Stone, Clay and Other C... Grain Animal Feedstuffs Oil Seeds Organic/Inorganic Chemic... Iron/steel/Scrap Gas(LPG/LNG) Petroleum Products Ores Crude Petroleum

16 Top 1 Westbound Commodities by Value Billion $ - Other Textiles Semi-Conductors Electrical Appliances/... Motor Vehicles Wearing Apparel Plastic and metal Manuf... Machinery & Parts TV/Radio/Communicati... Office and Computing... Optical/Professional/Ele... Billion $

17 - Transits by Flag - CYPRUS MALTA GERMANY BAHAMAS GREECE MARSHALL ISL... HONG KONG SINGAPORE LIBERIA PANAMA Mil. DWT No. Transits 's

18 Transits by Owner Nationality - BERMUDA/Norway TAIWAN UNITED KINGDOM KOREA (SOUTH) SINGAPORE CHINA, PEOPLE'... HONG KONG GERMANY GREECE JAPAN Mil. DWT No. Transits 's

19 Value of Trade by Origin (Export) Area Via Malacca Billion $ - India Singapore E.S. America & Venezuela Taiwan South Korea Japan North Europe Malaysia West Arabian Gulf China & HKG

20 Value of Trade by Destination (Import) Area Via Malacca - Billion $ Thailand East Taiwan Singapore Malaysia West South Korea Arabian Gulf South Europe Japan China & HKG North Europe

21 Conclusion Malacca is strategically important: 2% of World Seaborne Trade 3% of Global Seaborne Crude Oil 55% of Global Shipping Capacity Obvious economic and strategic interest of non -littoral states in the continued security and freedom of navigation through the Strait

22 Thank you

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