Integrating Value Added Trade Statistics into the SNA

Transcription

1 Integrating Value Added Trade Statistics into the SNA Perspectives from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Robert E. Yuskavage Associate Director for International Economics U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis June 10,

2 Globalization International fragmentation of production across borders Vertical specialization trade Global sourcing of parts and materials Increased trade in intermediate products Much of this activity occurs within multinational companies iphone is often cited as an example 2

3 Issues with Current Measures Gross flows do not reflect value added from each country in the supply chain Large deficits/surpluses misleading if Domestic factor content of imports high Foreign factor content of exports high Distort significance of bilateral balances Still provide useful direct trade measures Well reported and consistently measured across countries of origin and destination 3

4 Issues with Value Added Approach Very difficult to directly measure due to limited information in company records Firms often do not know sources of inputs May not know about smaller value inputs National Academy of Sciences (2006) Impractical to directly measure foreign and domestic content of exports and imports Questioned the validity of the I-O approach due to assumptions required for use 4

5 Value Added Approach Allocates gross flows to producing and supplying countries based on VA content Measures often based on multipliers from inter-region world input-output tables Linkages between countries are based on origin/destination data in trade statistics Requires assumptions about import use Microdata research now underway can help to improve import use tables 5

6 Impact of VA Approach on Trade Both exports and imports would be lower due to excluding from gross flows Foreign content of exports Domestic content of imports No impact on trade balance or GDP Significant changes in bilateral trade balances and possibly more partners BEA could support this approach for the SNA but more research is needed 6

7 International Standards: SNA and BPM6 New treatment of goods-for-processing would address some of the concerns When ownership does not change and goods are returned after processing Gross merchandise trade flows are excluded Value of the processing service included as services trade measured by the processing fee No impact on overall trade balance but it shifts the balance between goods and services 7

8 International Standards: SNA and BPM6 Major challenges for new treatment No indication of goods-for-processing in customs data used for merchandise trade Companies have indicated they cannot identify such transactions in their records Other countries face similar issues BEA is working with Census to develop measures based on matching trade data with enterprise information 8

9 Conclusion Global value chains have raised questions about traditional gross flow trade statistics BEA supports research to improve world I-O tables as a basis for value-added trade measures Value-added measures could eventually be considered as supplementary items for the SNA but should not supplant traditional measures Researchers should support statistical agencies in efforts to implement new international standards that partially address these issues 9