Table of contents. Executive summary Part I The traffic growth challenge... 25

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1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 7 Table of contents Abbreviations Executive summary Part I The traffic growth challenge Chapter 1 The global and regional outlook for the economy, trade and transport Economic outlook Trade growth and outlook Maritime trade and transport composition Trade routes: The big picture Aviation Rail Oil and gas Note Chapter 2 Global infrastructure needs to Infrastructure networks Infrastructure to 2030 report The situation pre The impact of the crisis Revised outlook Global infrastructure investment needs to Infrastructure needs to 2030 airports, ports, rail, and oil and gas (T&D) infrastructure Concluding remarks Note Bibliography Part II Opportunities and challenges for strategic transport infrastructure Chapter 3 Strategic transport infrastructure case studies Gateways, hubs and inland transport connections Long-term opportunities and challenges: A case study approach National settings for the case study work: Quality of transport infrastructure Port of Rotterdam Turkey Bosphorus The High North /Barents area strategic infrastructure in Finland and Sweden... 78

2 8 TABLE OF CONTENTS France gateway ports Denmark Greater Copenhagen area Austria/Switzerland inland hubs India s West Coast ports: Mumbai Gateway area Note Chapter 4 Strategic transport infrastructure in other key economies Quality of transport infrastructure Australia Canada China United Kingdom United States Comparing the five countries Conclusion Chapter 5 Key issues emerging from the case studies Strategic policy objectives Benefiting from future economic and trade growth Increasing competitiveness Green Transport Policy Better structures and organisation Better funding and financing Infrastructure development Infrastructure management New technology aimed at improving efficiency and reducing adverse impacts Improving evaluation processes Greater policy coherence Bibliography Part III Meeting the challenge: Possibilities for gateway management, funding, finance and planning Chapter 6 Gateway structures and organisation Gateway structures and models Gateway airports International and transit infrastructure models Gateway structure market value considerations Concluding remarks Note Chapter 7 Infrastructure funding: Gateways and inland links Funding of strategic infrastructure Infrastructure funding models gateway ports (and airports) Airport funding Airport funding and financing Infrastructure funding models inland transport Linked funding gateways and hinterland connections Infrastructure funds Infrastructure funding via government-owned corporations

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 9 Funding by different levels of government Innovative future funding and mobility pricing The longer term funding challenges Countries with good funding arrangements Countries without good funding arrangements Chapter 8 Infrastructure financing: Private sector involvement Importance of financing arrangements Financing models Public and private financing Private sector involvement in aviation Cost of capital Pension funds Project quality and risk reduction Debt financing Other equity and debt financing models Innovative financing Concluding remarks Notes Chapter 9 Strategic planning and contributions to green growth Strategic planning Gateway area planning Green growth Chapter 10 Improving evaluation processes Current evaluation processes Need for improved evaluation processes Competitiveness and related impacts Economic versus financial evaluations Chapter 11 Developing national policy frameworks National policy frameworks Improving frameworks for funding and communications Improving strategic infrastructure Concluding remarks Bibliography Annex A Steering group members Annex B Airport infrastructure needs to 2030: Background to global estimates Annex C Port infrastructure needs to 2030: Background to global estimates Annex D Rail infrastructure needs to 2030: Background to global estimates Annex E Oil and gas transport and distribution infrastructure needs to 2030: Global estimates

4 10 TABLE OF CONTENTS Tables Table 1.1. Intra- and inter-regional merchandise trade flows (2006) Table 1.2. Estimated cargo flows on major east-west container trade routes Table 1.3. World port container handling (including trans-shipment) Table 1.4. Airline passenger traffic by region in 2009 and Table 1.5. Primary oil demand by scenario (millions of barrels/day) Table 2.1. Annual and aggregate investment needs in selected economic infrastructure, Table 2.2. Global airport infrastructure investment needs, Table 2.3. Global port infrastructure investment needs, Table 2.4. Total port container investment needs (new berths and rehabilitation) Table 2.5. Global rail infrastructure investment needs, Table 2.6. Rail infrastructure investment needs, Table 2.7. G20 countries rail infrastructure investment needs, Table 2.8. Revised estimates for infrastructure investment in oil and gas transport and distribution, Table 3.1. WEF rankings: Transport infrastructure quality by mode Table 4.1. Transport infrastructure quality by mode ( ) Table 6.1. Models of ports Table 7.1. Models of international gateways Table 7.2. Models of inland transport Table 7.3. Austria s road and rail network funding Table 8.1. Models of financing Table 8.2. A selection of major airports with significant private ownership Table 8.3. Indicative advice on the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) in the United Kingdom Table B.1. Terminal air passenger forecasts, (millions) Table B.2. Airport capital expenditure (Capex) by region Table B.3. Planned airports investments including major upgrades/extensions at existing airports and possible major greenfield site investments Table C.1. Port container handling projections to Table C.2. World container port handling projections to 2015 (millions TEUs per annum) Table C.3. World s ten busiest container ports Table C.4. World port container handling (including trans-shipment) Table C.5. Port classification and indicative throughput per berth Table C.6. Total port container berths ( ) Table C.7. Total port container berth and investment requirements ( ) Table C.8. US ports actual and projected port capital expenditures over the period Table C.9. India s 12 major ports consolidated cargo forecast in M tonnes Table E.1. Cumulative investment in gas supply infrastructure by region and activity in the New Policies Scenario ( ) Table E.2. Oil and gas investment needs upstream and downstream ( ) Table E.3. Revised estimates for infrastructure investment in oil and gas transport and distribution ( ) Table E.4. Average annual investment by sector baseline and BLUE map scenarios Table E.5. Average annual investment by the energy sector BLUE map scenario

5 TABLE OF CONTENTS 11 Figures Figure 1.1. Global GDP growth Figure 1.2. GDP growth rates per annum: Major economies Figure 1.3. World economic growth (GDP) and world merchandise exports (volumes) Figure 1.4. Growth in trade exports as a share of GDP Figure 1.5. World trade annual exports of goods Figure 1.6. World port container handling higher, medium, lower TEU growth scenarios Figure 1.7. Diversifying inland and sea routes between Asia and Europe Figure 1.8. The emerging global maritime freight system Figure 1.9. International air freight and passenger traffic volumes (seasonally adjusted) Figure ICAO world air traffic forecasts to Figure International air cargo growth Figure Annual rail freight projected increases from (million tonne-kilometres) Figure Annual rail freight projected overall growth (%) Figure Oil outlook forecast growth in primary demand ( ) Figure World primary oil demand by scenario Figure Gas outlook forecast growth in primary demand ( ) Figure World primary natural gas demand by scenario Figure Relationship between world GDP growth and transport demand Figure 2.1. Competitiveness and quality of overall infrastructure Figure 3.1. Port of Rotterdam s historical and current development areas Figure 3.2. Marmaray project showing at-grade, bored and immersed sections Figure 3.3. Mersin Container Port hinterland traffic Figure 3.4. Nabucco gas pipeline route via Turkey to Vienna Figure 3.5. Developing and new clusters in the Barents region Figure 3.6. Trends in container traffic across western European ports (Le Havre-Hamburg) Figure Finger Plan (stylised) Figure Finger Plan Figure 3.9. Decided infrastructure projects in Copenhagen over the period to Figure Possible fixed link Aarhus-Zealand (Kalundborg) Figure Transalpine rail freight flows (2004) Figure Transalpine road freight flows (2004) Figure 5.1. Increasing size and capacity of container vessels Figure 7.1. Switzerland s infrastructure funds and their sources and allocation of revenue Figure 9.1. Northwest European and Mediterranean gateway areas and inland corridors Figure 9.2. CO 2 multi-modal equivalence classes emissions (sea and railways) from Port Said to main European destinations Figure 9.3. Multiple strategic transport objectives current and 2030 (indicative values only) Figure C.1. World port container handling: Higher, medium, lower TEU growth scenarios Figure C.2. Regional distribution of container berth requirements,