Tanker Monthly Fleet Update

Transcription

1 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update (a review of deliveries, demo, orders, and rates) September 218 research ; research@bancosta.com Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 1

2 Fleet Developments (deliveries, demolitions, orders) Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 2

3 Our size definitions for tankers: VLCC (Very Large Crude Carriers) Suezmax Aframax (Uncoated) LR2 (Long Range 2) LR1 (Long Range 1) MR2 (Medium Range 2) MR1 (Medium Range 1) 2,+ dwt 12,-199,999 dwt 78,-119,999 dwt (uncoated) 78,-119,999 dwt (coated) 6,-77,999 dwt (coated) 42,-59,999 dwt (coated) 3,-41,999 dwt (coated) (note1: for all sizes, includes both coated and uncoated units) (note2: the definition of coated/uncoated refers to how a ship was built, NOT how it s currently trading) Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 3

4 units Crude Tanker Deliveries + Orderbook in No. of Units - Annual (September 218 ; only uncoated units over 78, dwt ; in units ; assuming 2% slippage) Aframax (uncoated) Suezmax VLCC In 217, we recorded the delivery of 129 crude tanker vessels over 78, dwt, for a total of 26.4 mln dwt. These included: 5 VLCCs (15.2 mln dwt), 51 Suezmaxes (8. mln dwt) and 28 uncoated Aframaxes (3.2 mln dwt). In 218, around 15 units equivalent to mln dwt are expected to be delivered, after assuming delivery slippages. Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 4

5 units Product Tanker Deliveries + Orderbook in No. of Units - Annual (September 218 ; only coated units between 3,-119,999 dwt ; in units ; assuming 2% slippage) MR1 MR2 LR1 LR2 In 217, we recorded the delivery of 138 product tankers between 3, dwt and 12, dwt, for a total of 9.2 mln dwt. These included: 38 LR2s (4.2 mln dwt), 15 LR1s (1.1 mln dwt), 63 MR2s (3.1 mln dwt) and 22 MR1s (.8 mln dwt). In 218, around 115 units equivalent to 7-8 mln dwt are expected to be delivered, after assuming delivery slippages. Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 5

6 units Crude Tanker Deliveries in No. of Vessels - Monthly (September 218 ; all coated and uncoated units over 78, dwt ; in units) /215 2/216 8/216 2/217 8/217 2/218 8/218 Aframax (uncoated) Suezmax VLCC In August 218, we recorded the delivery of 8 uncoated units over 78, dwt, for a total of 1.5 mln dwt. These included: 2 VLCCs (.63 mln dwt), 4 Suezmax (.63 mln dwt), and 2 uncoated Aframaxes (.22 mln dwt). In the first 8 months of 218, we recorded the delivery of 79 crude tankers for a total of 15.3 mln dwt, compared to 11 units equivalent to2.45 mln dwt during the same period in 217. Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 6

7 units Product Tanker Deliveries in No. of Units - Monthly (September 218 ; only coated units 3,-119,999 dwt ; in units) /215 2/216 8/216 2/217 8/217 2/218 8/218 MR1 MR2 LR1 LR2 In August 218, we recorded the delivery of 1 product tankers, for a total of.6 mln dwt. These included: 2 LR2s (.22 mln dwt), 1 LR1 (.7 mln dwt), 6 MR2s (.3 mln dwt), and 1 MR1 (.4 mln dwt). In the first 8 months of 218, 7 product tankers were delivered totaling 4.5 mln dwt: 14 LR2s, 11 LR1s, 35 MR2s and 1 MR1s. Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 7

8 units Crude Tanker Demolition Activity in No. of Units - Monthly (September 218 ; only uncoated units over 78, dwt ; in units) /215 2/216 8/216 2/217 8/217 2/218 8/218 Aframax (uncoated) Suezmax VLCC 9 crude tankers equivalent to 1.7 mln dwt were reported demolished in July 218, comprising of 2 VLCCs (.62 mln dwt), and 7 Suezmaxes (1.4 mln dwt). In the first 8 months of 218, 69 crude tankers equivalent to 12.9 mln dwt were reported scrapped, compared to 14 crude tankers equivalent to 2. mln dwt reported demolished during the same period in 217. Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 8

9 units Product Tanker Demolitions in No. of Units - Monthly (September 218 ; only coated units 3,-119,999 dwt ; in units) /215 2/216 8/216 2/217 8/217 2/218 8/218 MR1 MR2 LR1 LR2 1 MR2 of 45, dwt was reported demolished in August 218. In the first 8 months of 218, 38 product tankers equivalent to 2. mln dwt were reported demolished. In comparison, only 12 product tankers amounting to.66 mln dwt were demolished during the same period in 217. Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 9

10 units Crude Tanker Newbuilding Orders in No. of Units - Monthly (September 218 ; all coated and uncoated units over 78, dwt ; in units) /215 2/216 8/216 2/217 8/217 2/218 8/218 Aframax (uncoated) Suezmax VLCC In August 218, 2 Aframax orders of 115, dwt each were reported for uncoated units. In the first 8 months of 218, 45 crude tankers amounting to 11.7 mln dwt were ordered, comprising of 34 VLCCs, 2 Suezmaxes, and 9 uncoated Aframaxes. This compares to 53 crude tankers totaling 13.2 mln dwt ordered during the same period in 217. Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 1

11 units Product Tanker Newbuilding Orders in No. of Units - Monthly (September 218 ; only coated units 3,-119,999 dwt ; in units) /215 2/216 8/216 2/217 8/217 2/218 8/218 MR1 MR2 LR1 LR2 In August 218, 4 new orders equivalent to.2 mln dwt were signed, all MR2s. In the first 8 months of 218, 48 product tankers amounting to 2.6 mln dwt were ordered, comprising of 4 LR2s, 39 MR2s and 5 MR1s. This compares to 53 new orders placed during the same period in 217, of which 17 were LR2s, 1 was a LR1, 33 were MR2s and 2 were MR1s. Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 11

12 Charter and S&P Markets (rates, prices, sales volume) Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 12

13 USD/day Crude Tanker Baltic Exchange Rates - last 36 months (September 218 ; source: the baltic exchange ; daily data ; in USD/day) 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, 9/215 3/216 9/216 3/217 9/217 3/218 9/218 VLCC TCE Suezmax TCE Aframax TCE In August 218, crude tanker rates for VLCCs rose to around $2,4/d, while Suezmax and Aframax rates fell 9.5 percent and 9.1 percent respectively m-o-m. Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 13

14 USD/day Product Tanker Baltic Exchange Rates - last 36 months (September 218 ; source: the baltic exchange ; daily data ; in USD/day) 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 9/215 3/216 9/216 3/217 9/217 3/218 9/218 TC1 (MEG to Japan 75, tons) TC2 (Cont to USAC 37, tons) TC11 (S.Korea to Singapore 4, tons) LR2s on the MEG to Japan route averaged $6,2/d in August 218, decreasing 13 percent m-o-m. MRs on the standard TC2 Cont/USAC route rose 123 percent m-o-m, while the TC11 Pacific route fell 33 percent m-o-m. Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 14

15 USD/day Crude Tanker 1 Year Timecharter Rates - last 36 months (September 218 ; basis modern standard unit ; estimated monthly avg. ; in USD/day) 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 8/215 2/216 8/216 2/217 8/217 2/218 8/218 VLCC Suezmax Aframax In August 218, 1 year time charter rates for crude tankers rose by 1.4 percent m-o-m for Aframaxes, 4. percent for VLCCs, and 4.5 percent for Suemaxes. Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 15

16 USD/day Product Tanker 1 Year Timecharter Rates - last 36 months (September 218 ; basis modern standard unit ; estimated monthly avg. ; in USD/day) 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 8/215 2/216 8/216 2/217 8/217 2/218 8/218 LR2 MR2 In Aug 218, 1 year time charter rates for MR2 tankers decreased 1.8 percent m-o-m and 5.3 percent y-o-y. Rates for LR2s stayed flat m-o-m but remained down 6.7 percent y-o-y. Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 16

17 USD mln Tanker Newbuilding Prices - last 36 months (September 218 ; indicative average ; monthly data ; in USD mln) /215 2/216 8/216 2/217 8/217 2/218 8/218 VLCC Suezmax Aframax LR2 MR2 NB prices for crude tankers generally rose by a slight percent m-o-m, and remained up between percent y-o-y. LR2s were up.5 percent m-o-m and 9.4 percent y-o-y, while MR2s stayed flat m-o-m and remained up 7.6 percent y-o-y. Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 17

18 USD mln Tanker 5 Years Old Secondhand Prices - last 36 months (September 218 ; indicative average ; monthly data ; in USD mln) /215 2/216 8/216 2/217 8/217 2/218 8/218 VLCC Suezmax Aframax MR2 In August 218, secondhand prices for VLCCs and Suezmaxes saw a slight increase of percent m-o-m, while Aframaxes decreased.5 percent m-o-m. MR2 prices remained flat m-o-m. Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 18

19 units Crude Tanker Reported Secondhand Sales - in No. of Units (September 218 ; only uncoated units over 78, dwt ; in units) /217 1/217 12/217 2/218 4/218 6/218 8/218 Aframax (uncoated) Suezmax VLCC In August 218, 4 secondhand uncoated vessels were reported sold, concerning 3 VLCCs (.93 mln dwt), and 1 uncoated Aframax (.11 mln dwt). In the first 8 months of 218, 71 units were reported sold, of which 31 were VLCCs (8.3 mln dwt), 12 were Suezmaxes (1.9 mln dwt), and 28 were uncoated Aframaxes (2.9 mln dwt). Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 19

20 units Product Tanker Reported Secondhand Sales - in No. of Units (September 218; all coated units between 3-119,999 dwt ; in units) /217 1/217 12/217 2/218 4/218 6/218 8/218 MR1 MR2 LR1 LR2 In August 218, 16 secondhand product tankers were sold. These deals concerned 1 LR2 (.11 mln dwt), 3 LR2s (.22 mln dwt), 1 MR2s (.48 mln dwt), and 2 MR1s (.8 mln dwt). In the first 8 months of 218, 121 secondhand product tankers were sold, including 22 MR1s (.8 mln dwt), 71 MR2s (3.4 mln dwt), 15 LR1s (1.1 mln dwt), and 13 LR2s (1.4 mln dwt). Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 2

21 Summary (key figures for fleet, rates, and prices) Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 21

22 In units Aug 218 Jan-Aug Deliveries Demolitions New Orders Deliveries Demolitions New Orders Deliveries Demolitions New Orders VLCC Suezmax Aframax (uncoated) LR LR MR MR Total In million dwt Aug 218 Jan-Aug Deliveries Demolitions New Orders Deliveries Demolitions New Orders Deliveries Demolitions New Orders VLCC Suezmax Aframax (uncoated) LR LR MR MR Total Aug yr TC rate NB price 2nd Hand price M-o-M Y-o-Y M-o-M Y-o-Y (USD/day) (USD mln) 5 y.o. (USD mln) M-o-M Y-o-Y VLCC 21, + 4% - 17% % + 9% % + 1% Suezmax 16,3 + 4% - 2% % + 1% % + 7% Aframax (uncoated) 14,5 + 1% + % % + 9% % + 2% MR2 13,5-2% - 5% % + 8% % + 9% Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 22

23 & network c. s.p.a. address: via pammatone, genoa (italy) phone: [5631-1] dry - capesize capespmx@bancosta.com insurance insurance@bancostains.it dry - panamax capespmx@bancosta.com p&i hull@bancostains.it dry - handy handy@bancosta.com ship finance financial@bancosta.com In addition to regular market reports, research recognize the need for bespoke reports & analysis, dry - operation dryoper@bancosta.com research research@bancosta.com tankers tanker@bancosta.com agency bcagy@bcagy.it containers containers@bancosta.com yachting yachts@bancosta.it s&p salepurchase@bancosta.com accounting account@bcaccount.it bancosta uk bancosta monaco bancosta sa medioriental london monte carlo geneva dubai phone: phone: phone: phone: info@bancosta.co.uk info@bancosta-monaco.com info@bancosta.ch mena@bancosta.com bancosta oriente bancosta oriente bancosta oriente japan rep.office singapore hong kong beijing tokyo phone: phone: phone: phone: tailored to specific client needs. Reports can be produced on a wide range of shipping markets including dry bulk, tankers, gas & containers. In addition in-depth reports can be produced on specific commodity markets. To discuss individual requirements please contact: Phone: capespmx@bancosta.it research@bancosta.com web site : this report has been prepared by research for any enquiries please contact us on or research@bancosta.com bancosta.tokyo@spa.nifty.com Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 23

24 network & c. s.p.a. head office: via pammatone, genoa (italy) phone: [5631-1] dry - capesize capes@bancosta.com research research@bancosta.com dry - panamax capespmx@bancosta.com ship finance financial@bancosta.com dry - handy handy@bancosta.com insurance insurance@bancostains.it dry - operation dryoper@bancosta.com p&i hull@bancostains.it tankers tanker@bancosta.com yachting yachts@bancosta.it containers containers@bancosta.com agency bcagy@bcagy.it s&p salepurchase@bancosta.com ship repair shipyard@bcagy.it offshore offshore@bancosta.com towage/salvage shipyard@bcagy.it bancosta uk bancosta monaco bancosta sa medioriental london monte carlo geneva dubai phone: phone: phone: phone: info@bancosta.co.uk info@bancosta-monaco.com info@bancosta.ch mena@bancosta.com bancosta oriente bancosta oriente bancosta oriente japan rep.office singapore hong kong beijing tokyo phone: phone: phone: phone: sap@bancosta.com.hk sap@bancosta.com.hk capespmx@bancosta.it bancosta.tokyo@spa.nifty.com web site : Linkedin: linkedin.com/company/banchero-costa Twitter: twitter.com/banchero_costa Legal notice: The information and data contained in this presentation is derived from a variety of sources, own and third party s, public and private, and is provided for information purposes only. Whilst has used reasonable efforts to include accurate and up-to-date information in this presentation, makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy of any information contained herein or accuracy or reasonableness of conclusions drawn there from. Although some forward-looking statements are made in the report, cannot in any way guarantee their accuracy or reasonableness. assumes no liabilities or responsibility for any errors or omissions in the content of this report. Sep 218 Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 24