4 th TRB International Conference on Innovations in Travel Modeling April 30, Vidya Mysore. presented at. Moderator

Transcription

1 presented at 4 th TRB International Conference on Innovations in Travel Modeling April 30, 2012 Moderator Vidya Mysore Vidya.mysore@dot.state.fl.us Florida DOT 5/16/2012

2 Agenda Overview Recent Advances in Freight Modeling Maren Outwater, Resource System Group, Inc. Data for Next Generation Freight Models: Needs & Sources Survey Data Krishnan Viswanathan, CDM Smith; and Stacey Bricka, Texas Transportation Institute Probe Data Arun Kuppam Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Ask the Experts: Breakout Groups to Discuss Recommendations for Florida DOT Group Recommendations to Florida DOT and Discussion 5/16/2012 Page 2

3 Overview Florida Statewide Freight Model Current Practice Overview Support to MPOs and Districts Multi-modal Statewide Freight Forecast Model Development Plan Need your input. Next Steps 4/30/2012 Page 3 3

4 Statewide Freight Model (SWFM)- Overview Focuses primarily on long-distance commodity freight movements The focus on commodity freight addresses the large trucks moving on SIS highways Freight Truck trips approximately represent 25% of total truck trips in Florida, but 45% of the total truck vehicle miles traveled (VMT) within Florida. 4/30/2012 Page 4

5 Freight Truck Model based on Commodity Groups There are 14 Commodity groups in Freight Model: 1. Agriculture 2. Non-Metallic Minerals 3. Coal 4. Food 5. Non-Durable Manufacturing Goods 6. Lumber 7. Chemicals 8. Paper 9. Petroleum Products 10. Other Durable Manufacturing Goods 11. Clay, Concrete and Glass 12. Waste 13. Miscellaneous Freight 14. Warehouse Commodity convert from Measured in Tons 5/16/2012 Page 5

6 Commodity Flow Convert to this Dry Van Logging Platform Livestock Bulk Automobile Reefer Other Tank Measured in Truck Trips 5/16/2012 Page 6 6

7 Statewide Corridors 5/16/2012 Page 7

8 SWFM Support to MPO/Districts: Modeling Port of Jacksonville Truck Traffic Jacksonville Port Truck Flow Desire lines and Bandwidth Plots 5/16/2012 Page 8

9 Regional Models Capital Region NERPM Northwest CFRPM b b. Area includes a separate Orlando area model Regional Models Eight (8) Available TBRPM District 1 Treasure Coast c c. Treasure Coast and Palm Beach County combine to form the Greater Treasure Coast Model SERPM 4/30/2012 Page 9

10 SWFM Support to MPO/Districts: Regional Model with Freight Truck Utilizes MPO regional model within each District for regional Freight Truck Trips CFRPM with Freight Truck Model 4/30/2012 Page 10

11 Typical Uses of the Freight Model The main focus of the model amount of freight that goes into my jurisdiction amount of freight that goes out my jurisdiction amount of freight that gets moved within my jurisdiction amount of freight that goes through my jurisdiction ways/methods this freight gets moved 4/30/2012 Page 11

12 Multi-modal Statewide Freight Forecast Model - Development Plan? 4/30/2012 Page 12

13 Development Plan - Framework Supply Chain Models Tend to be National/Multi-state in scope Tour-based Models Tend to be Regional/multi-regional in scope Hybrid Models Combined supply chain and tour-based models Tend to be for Regional planning purposes, but with a National component 4/30/2012 Page 13

14 Supply Chain Models Freight transport demand is a derived demand Good representation of logistics in freight demand models allows better prediction of future flows More accurate freight flows Better cost estimates 4/30/2012 Page 14 Source: L. A. Tavasszy, K. Ruijgrok & I. Davydenko (2012): Incorporating Logistics in Freight Transport Demand Models: State-of-the-Art and Research Opportunities, Transport Reviews

15 Tour Based Models Radial Peddle Destination #4 Territory B Territory C Destination #3 Trip #4 Trip #3 Destination #2 Territory A Trip #1 BASE Trip #2 Trip #1 Destination #1 Territory D loaded empty BASE Trip #4 Multi-leg 4/30/2012 Page 15

16 Next Steps Define strategic needs in freight demand modeling and freight data Freight Movement Data from ATRI is free Purchase Transearch Commodity Flow Data from IHS Global Insight, Inc. Some discussion was made Develop strategic plan based on Districts and MPOs input on next directions for freight/goods Movement modeling activities in Florida 4/30/2012 Page 16

17 Agenda Recent Advances in Freight Modeling Maren Outwater, Resource System Group, Inc. Data for Next Generation Freight Models: Needs & Sources Survey Data Krishnan Viswanathan, CDM Smith; and Stacey Bricka, Texas Transportation Institute Probe Data Arun Kuppam Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Ask the Experts: Breakout Groups to Discuss Recommendations for Florida DOT Group Recommendations to Florida DOT and Discussion 5/16/2012 Page 17