D1 REGIONAL PLANNING MODEL (D1RPM V1.0.3)

Transcription

1 MODEL ADVANCEMENT COMMITTEE (MAC) MEETING APRIL 6, 2017 D1 REGIONAL PLANNING MODEL (D1RPM V1.0.3) Polk 12 County Area (previously individual models) 5,662 zones Manatee Hardee Okeechobee 2010 base year 2018 existing+committed 2040 cost feasible Sarasota DeSoto Charlotte Highlands Glades Support for 6 MPO LRTPs Compatible with CUBE Lee Hendry Collier

2 travel time feedback loop The D1RPM Is a 4-step Model, trip-based model Trip Generation. Trip Distribution. Mode Choice. Assignment. Trip Generation Incorporates many of the Transit Model Update recommendations Trip Distribution Seeded with real speed for highway and transit vehicles Developed by FDOT Systems Planning, in conjunction with FTA guidance in TRANSITMODEL Includes Transit Prep, Transit Path, Mode Choice and Transit Assignment Uses Florida (ACS) 2010 data and trip generation rates. Trip purposes stratified by income: 45 markets include NHBO and HBCU purposes. Diurnal Factors Assignments Trip Table split by TOD Diurnal Factors split trips into 4 periods (AM, MD, PM, NT). A Feedback Loop is included to account for the effects of Post-Processes Reporting congestion on distribution and mode choice.

3 The D1RPM Updated 2010, Florida Based, Trip Generation Data Table HBW Trip Production Rates Table HB College/University and HB School Trip Production Rates H ousehold Income H ousehold Number of W orkers in H ousehold Household Household Size Autos Trip Purpose Autos W rks0 W rks1 W rks2 W rks3+ /Income Size1 Size2 Size3 Size4+ $0-$ HB College/University All $25000-$ HB School V eh0 $50000-$ $ $0-$ $25000-$ V eh1 $50000-$ Table Trip Attraction Rates $ Industrial Service Commercial School $0-$ Households Employment Employment Employment Enroll. $25000-$ V eh2 Trip $50000-$ Purpose Coeff. t-stat Coeff. t-stat Coeff. t-stat Coeff. t-stat $ HBW Inc $0-$ HBW Inc $25000-$ V eh3+ HBW Inc $50000-$ HBW Inc $ HBSh HBSR HBO HBSc HBU NHBW NHBO

4 The D1RPM Mode Choice Procedures Very similar to the transit methodology we have been using for years, but with some new wrinkles Use of REWALK for pre-processing of transit access-links. Transit routes may include dwell at stops, particularly at Transit Centers. Changes wait-time from ½ headway to 5 minutes. Uses (new) recommended Mode Choice coefficients. Mode Choice accommodates non-motorized modes of travel. Person Trips Auto Transit Non Mot Drive Alone Shared Ride Walk PnR KnR Walk Bike SR2 SR3+ LOC PRJ LOC PRJ LOC PRJ

5 The D1RPM D1RPM 2010 Model Airport Trip Model A unique airport trip generation (based on enplanements) and distribution program allows trips from SRQ, PGD & RSW to travel into tourist and other non-residential destinations at a higher rate.

6 The D1RPM The FLSWM 2010 Model (partial) Truck Trip Model Inter-state and intra-state Freight Truck trips from the State-wide Model are included as heavy trucks which move in and through D1. Intermodal logistic centers (ILC) are included.

7 The D1RPM Unique Procedures The LRTP CF networks include all roadway improvements proposed during the LRTP process. The field LRTP_KEY is used to easily include or exclude proposed roadway projects over the lifetime of the model. Projects that did not make it into the cost feasible model, may be advanced as funding opportunities arise. Any roadway with a LRTP_KEY<>0 is excluded from the UNLOADED.NET in subsequent model steps. This has proved to be a great time-saver allowing proposed improvements to be easily shown graphically.

8 The D1RPM Assignment Procedures MSA of congested speeds on each Feedback Loop. Relative Gap = , Enhanced, Smoothed. Optional: Select-Link or Select-node or PATHFILE.

9 The D1RPM User Interface

10 The D1RPM - Current Model Update Base Year (2010), E+C (2018) and Cost Feasible Models (2040) Update to incorporate recent project level subarea refinements Incorporate any MPO amendments, revisions or corrections COUNTY SUBAREA REFINEMENTS COUNTY SUBAREA REFINEMENTS Charlotte / Lee Babcock Ranch NOPC and CPA Polk Memorial Hwy Lane Reduction (Lakeland) Charlotte / Lee SR 31 from SR 80 to CR 74 Polk SR 37 Lane Diet (Lakeland) Collier Naples Downtown Mobility Study Polk US 27 from Washington to Posner Collier to Glades SR 29 from Oil Well to SR 27 Sarasota I-75 / Fruitville Interchange Area Districtwide I-75 Auxiliary Lanes Sarasota Fruitville lane diet East of US 41 Lee Corkscrew Sarasota US 41 / Gulfstream Area Study Lee Lee Manatee Manatee Colonial US 41 lane diet Central Manatee (CMNAA) SR 64 E of I-75 Roundabout Evaluation Sarasota SR 72 E of I-75 A live model: v1.0.3 v1.0.4

11 The D1RPM Model Development 2015 Base Year Data Development A Highway (GIS) New Roads Roadway Realignments / Deletions Lane Changes / Median Changes Directional Changes Traffic Signal Locations (type, phasing if available) B Traffic Counts (GIS) Count Location Shapefiles Classification Counts AADT Database Hourly Count Database (where available) Toll Facility Locations/Counts/Type/Fees C Land Use Data (GIS) Census Data Parcel Data Hotel/Motel/Time Share Data (rooms and employees) Schools (K-12) - Students and Employees College/University - Students, Resident Students, and Employees Special Generators (ex. Legoland, beach parking) Airport Master Plans Major Freight Facilities (ex. ILC) Employment DRI Data Potential TAZ splits D Parking Cost CBD Areas (Long Term, Short Term) E. Transit Shapefiles Route Alignment Park and Ride / Kiss and Ride Locations (Spaces, Cost) Transfer Centers Stops by route F. Route Maps w/ Stop Locations Schedules (hours of service and headways) G. Transit Route Ridership Systemwide Annual / Daily Ridership Route Daily Ridership (by Fare Category) Park and Ride / Kiss and Ride Use Number of Transfers H. Transit Stops and Stations Utilzation by Stop (ex. APC data) I. Transit Fares By Mode - Local Bus, Express Bus Discount Fares - (Bus pass rates for children, seniors, passes) Transfer Fares

12 The D1RPM Model Update May Include Modeling Autonomous Vehicles (AV / CV) Test Case Implementation (D1RPM) Assumes Level 3 Automation (connected vehicles, driver available for occasional control). Designed for what if Modeling, as well as, LRTP Modeling. Zero Saturation Rate = adopted model rates and assignment volumes. Saturation Rate (0% to 100%) Lookup Tables reflect Saturation Rate and provide: Estimate AV Trips by TAZ Estimate Roadway Capacity Adjustments (reduced following distance)

13 The D1RPM Model Update Modeling Autonomous Vehicles FT 95 may be restricted to AV only Home Based AV Auto Ownership weighted by Income. Roadway capacity adjusted based upon Facility Type and Saturation Rate. AV included as a separate trip purpose

14 The D1RPM Model Update Modeling Autonomous Vehicles Capacity Adjustment Factors - based on AV Saturation Rate and Facility Type: Propensity to Own AV based on Saturation Rate and Income:

15 The D1RPM Model Update Modeling Autonomous Vehicles Network with Capacity Adjustments. Trip Tables with AV and non-av by purpose. TRIP TABLES BY PURPOSE HBW1 HBW2 HBSH HBSR HBO HBSC HBCU NHB TT IE EE-a EE-t HT AIR NONAV 911,230 1,318,880 1,661,265 1,297,593 2,166, , ,456 2,467, , ,269 50,076 5,434 40,337 12,447 AV 473, , , ,701 1,316, , ,306 2,277, , ,556 46,224 5,016 37,234 11,489 TOTAL 1,384,349 2,172,791 2,624,739 2,091,294 3,482, , ,762 4,744,275 1,044, ,825 96,300 10,450 77,571 23,936 Loaded Network with AV purpose(s).

16 The D1RPM Model Update May Include Modeling Ridesource (RS) Trips Trip Generation Additional SE data allows model to pick RS areas for consideration. Based on Population-Employment Density and Saturation Rate. Designated Service Areas Trip Distribution a paradigm shift in travel behavior (again) RS Trip Length. Vehicle Trip Tables (RS and Non-RS). Non-Revenue Roaming Trips. Assignment Pre-Assigned to Service Areas. Transit (access & egress) via RS. RS Included as a separate trip purpose.

17 The D1RPM Model Update Modeling Ridesource Trips Designated Service Areas Model RS Generation Mapped Over Uber Hot Spots

18 The D1RPM Model Update Modeling Ridesource Trips

19 The D1RPM Model Update Modeling Ridesource Trips Reporting for AV and RS

20 EXTRA SLIDES

21 The D1RPM -- Future Updates Modeling Other Modes Use procedures to quantify trips in Bicycle and Walk friendly Communities. Estimation of bike/pedestrian use

22 The D1RPM -- Future Updates Network Use of true-shape, as needed. Use of posted speeds. Trip Generation Use EE IE data FLSWM Time-of-Day (TOD) factoring here Trip Distribution Distribution by TOD TRANSITMODEL Assignment Transit periods to match TOD Mode choice calibration by TOD Tolls by TOD Enhanced reporting