Structural & Cyclical Shifts in the Trucking Industry
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1 Structural & Cyclical Shifts in the Trucking Industry Tim Denoyer ACT RESEARCH Co., LLC October 2018
2 Agenda Structural Shifts in Trucking Implications for NGV and CEV Economics Truckload Freight Cycle Primary part of U.S. freight transport network Largest market for Class 8 trucks Freight Forecast 2019 Truckload Market Volume and Rate Outlook ACT Research Co., LLC, Copyright
3 Structural Shift To Shorter Haul Increasingly regional distribution conducive to alt fuels ACT Research Co., LLC, Copyright
4 Industry Shift Toward Day Cabs 2000s average: 39.5% 20-year average: 40.0% 10-year average: 41.1% 5-year average: 41.7% 2-year average: 43.3% ACT Research Co., LLC, Copyright
5 U.S. Tractor Day Cab Population 15-Year Class 8 Tractor DC Population pertains to Regional TL & LTL Applications Short-haul, regular route, home to base operations work for alt fuels ACT Research Co., LLC, Copyright
6 Fuel Economics Alt Fuels TCO Calculator favors natural gas ACT Research Co., LLC, Copyright
7 Freight Cycle Overview Near-term positive 2018 Peak Shipping Season Setup Dwell times extending in Vancouver as import share shifts from LA/LB Houston/East Coast Ports gaining import market share Strong consumer trends led by e-commerce Recent Savings rate revision baffling but good news Inventory/sales looks reasonably tight Machinery demand on fire ACT Research Co., LLC, Copyright
8 Near-Record Carrier Profitability Strong case for a continuation of carrier profit improvement into 2019, based on contract rates locked in this year outweighing wage headwinds, but 2020 looks like a down year *Public Carrier Database includes Celadon, Covenant, Daseke, Heartland, JB Hunt, Knight-Swift, Landstar, Marten, PAM, Schneider, Universal, US Xpress, USA Truck and Werner. ACT Research Co., LLC, Copyright
9 Freight on the Brake? Freight cycles historically tend to last years ACT Research Co., LLC, Copyright
10 Rail Growth Bodes Well Near Term Metals & Chemicals Rail Carloads tend to lead truck freight by about a month Intermodal historically lagged truck, but in recent years more of a lead ACT Research Co., LLC, Copyright
11 Freight Expectations Key Drivers of US TL Freight Going from Great to Less Good Trade Headwinds Intensify in 2019: Tariffs on imported Steel (25%) & Aluminum (10%) began in March % tariffs on $50b of Chinese and U.S. exports began in August % tariffs on US $200b of US imports from China rise to 25% on Jan 1, 2019 China responded with 5%-10% tariffs on $60b of US exports put in place on 9/24/18. Importers building safety stocks ahead of deadlines Financial Conditions tightening with short-term rates rising, yield curve flattening Above-normal 2017 Hurricane activity may become a headwind in late-2018/early-2019 Private fleets are expanding to reduce spot market exposure Higher For-hire rates improve economics of private fleet investment Will remove freight from the for-hire market in the coming quarters 2019 TL Volume growth to slow materially ACT Research Co., LLC, Copyright
12 Classic Late Cycle Demand increases faster than capacity Capacity nears its limits, leading prices and profits to rise Higher inflation causes central banks to raise interest rates Tighter monetary policy causes asset prices (stocks) to fall because the discount rates used in valuing them are rising Why its not unusual to see a strong economy with falling stocks Surge in earnings can help put in new market highs classic top Combination of higher inflation & interest rates and volatile stocks can negatively impact economic demand This reduces inflationary forces and allows the central bank to lower interest rates to stimulate a new cycle ACT Research Co., LLC, Copyright
13 Survey Signals Slowdown Volume slowing as Capacity growth rises; reminiscent of 2015 ACT Research Co., LLC, Copyright
14 Where are TL Spot Rates Heading? ACT Spot Leading Indicator (SLI) Leads DAT Dry Van Spot by 2-3 months with 77% correlation SLI Forecasts Spot Rates Slowing to +5% y/y in Q3; likely to turn down in 4Q ACT Research Co., LLC, Copyright
15 U.S. Class 8 Tractor Population The Under 11-year Class 8 Tractor Population pertains to Truckload and LTL applications Important for the transportation industry, but not the core market for Alt Fuels ACT Research Co., LLC, Copyright
16 Demand - Supply = Price Demand = ATA Load Index, and Supply = Tractor Population Growth Not perfect, but over 1-2 year time horizons, the Supply-Demand balance usually determines the direction of rates. ACT Research Co., LLC, Copyright
17 2019 Market Balance? Freight Volumes Slower, Tractor Supply Faster Should lead to greater balance, with more modest pricing gains than widely expected Risk of Imbalance if Trade War hits Freight Could drive rates to flat to down in 2019 Upside Potential if tax cut-fueled U.S. Consumer/Industrial economy drives a longer than normal freight cycle Could drive rates up ~5% again in 2019 ACT Research Co., LLC, Copyright
18 ACT Research Company, LLC 4440 Middle Road Columbus, IN Main Phone: (812) Direct: (812)
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