Panamá Logistics Hub of the 21st Century

Transcription

1 Panamá Logistics Hub of the 21st Century February 25, 21 Panama Jordan Schwartz Lead Economist Desarrollo Sostenible Región Latinoamérica y el Caribe Banco Mundial

2 Summary of Presentation Why we care about logistics Why Panama as a logistics hub

3 Productivity losses (%) Logistics is a driver of competitiveness 3 25 OECD LAC Merchandise losses: Share of primary goods that do not arrive at market Logistics costs as share of market value Levels of Inventory Sources: World Bank, Guasch (24, 28)

4 Logistics costs are a driver of firm prices LAC Logistics Costs: % of Total Value of Firm Sales Fuente: Centro Logístico de Latinoamérica, Bogot, Colombia. Benchmarking 27: Estado de la Logística en America Latina Anexo, María Rey LogisticSummit 28

5 Farm Gate Producer Profit Intermediary Margin Transport Farm Gate to Distribution Center Handling at Distribution Center Transport from Distribution Center to Border Customs Agency Services Costa Rica Customs Time Costa Rica Duty Customs Agency Services Nicaragua Customs Time Nicaragua Transport From Border to Center of Distribution Handling at Distribution Center Transport form Distribution Center to Open Air Market Handling Losses Storage Local producers are punished by logistics costs US$/kg Disaggregated costs incurred by a small Central American fruit exporter Customs, 11% Duties, 6% Transport, 23%.6.4 Others 9%.2 Farm gate, 31% Source: LCSSD Economics Unit, World Bank (21)

6 Share of HH Budget spent on food Logistics costs affect the poor Logistics and transport costs are 2 to 1 times higher than import tariffs for basic goods. These basic goods represent 2 to 3 % of household income For the poor may represent up to 7 GDP per capita (log) Source: Dessus, et al, World Bank (28); data from household surveys.

7 LAC s logistics costs are higher than tariff barriers LAC import tariffs on food, 28 Sout h America Central America Logistics Costs Share of Product Value Meat Vegetables Dairy Fruit s Cereals Caribbean Ad Valorem Rates Source: World Bank LCCSD Economics Unit (21) calculations using TRAINS database, UNCTAD 28

8 Freight rate as % of FOB value Maritime Freight Rate Index Freight rate as % of FOB value Road Freight Rate Index Logistics costs rise with price increases but remain a baseline of prices for the region Freight Costs and Rates as % of FOB Value for LAC, Maritime and Road, Avg. Freight Rate as % of FOB Value for Foods 75 2 Avg. Freight Rate as % of FOB Value for Foods 75 1 M arit. Freight Rate Index (Base Year = 2) 1 Road Freight Rate Index (Base Year = 2) Fuente: Schwartz, Guasch, Wilmsmeier (29), Cálculos de autores utilizando la Base de Datos Internacional de Transporte (BTI) CEPAL 28

9 % Growth in Trade Better logistics means more intra-regional trade Central America s Intra-Regional Trade Potential from Greater Integration Expected Increase in Trade resulting from "Best CA Adjacency Performance" Expected Increase in Trade resulting from "EU-like Adjacency Performance" Expected Increase in Trade resulting from "EU-like Overall Trade Performance" Border Crossings & Customs Land Transport and Services Source: LCSSD Economics Unit, World Bank (21)

10 and more extra-regional trade Central America s Extra-Regional Trade Potential from Greater Integration 12,, 1,, To EU % 8,, 6,, To EU27 To the U.S. 4,, To the U.S. 2,, - To CA Eports from Central America in 27 To CA Potential Exports from a Spatially-Integrated Central America Source: LCSSD Economics Unit, World Bank (21)

11 Bringing logistics costs down (to 12%) creates demand and employment Sector Growth in Demand Growth in Employment Agro-Industry 9% 5% Furniture 1% 12% Textiles 6% 7% Leather/Shoes 12% 1% Mining 7% 2% Case study: COLOMBIA. Source: Guasch, Kogan (26), Banco Mundial.

12 Why Panama?

13 Singapore Netherlands Spain Japan Panama Jamaica Colombia Bahamas Dominican Rep. LSCI 21 (Maximum 24=1) Where is Panama today as a logistics hub? 12 Panama s Liner Shipping Connectivity 5, 45, 1 8 Global players Regional players 4, 35, 3, 6 25, 2, 4 15, 2 1, 5, Source: UNCTAD, Liner Shipping Connectivity Index, (211)

14 Shipping Connectivity Panama s position means it is already the region s primary hub 11 Singapore 1 Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI) 21 (Max 24=1) Panama Jamaica Bahamas Uruguay Costa Rica Sri Lanka Dominican Rep. Guatemala Transshipment Centers, Hubs & Canals Peru Egypt Chile Source: UNCTAD, LCSI (211), WB Data on GDP, LCSSD Economics Unit, World Bank (21) Size of the Economy GDP (US$B) 29

15 Shipping Connectivity but how can it cycle up? 11 Singapore 1 Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI) 21 (Max 24=1) Panama Jamaica Bahamas Uruguay Costa Rica Sri Lanka Dominican Rep. Guatemala Peru Egypt Chile Source: UNCTAD, LCSI (211), WB Data on GDP, LCSSD Economics Unit, World Bank (21) Size of the Economy GDP (US$B) 29

16 Tons of exports Who will handle the 8-fold increase in Central American container trade? 12,, 1,, Projection Exports (23): 19,874,524 tons 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, Full Containers Shipped (28): 2,592,563 TEU Full Containers Shipped (23): 19,591,68 TEU - Source: LCSSD Economics Unit, World Bank (211)

17 More than just a bigger boat

18 Number of Ports The Canal expansion is already affecting LAC s development Ports That are Currently Dredging Ports that are not dredging Ports that are dredging South America Central America Caribbean Mexico Source: LCSSD Economics Unit, World Bank (211)

19 Number of Responses In case there is any doubt as to why 14 they are dredging Not Dredging Dredging for Other Reasons Dredging because of Panama Canal expansion River East West Coast of LAC Source: LCSSD Economics Unit, World Bank (211)

20 Meters The impacts will be huge, of deepening Caribbean and of not deepening Central America Mexico South America Average of current terminal depths Average of future terminal depths 1 12 Panamax Post-Panamax Source: LCSSD Economics Unit, World Bank (211)

21 Why Panama?

22 The Canal OUR MATH + The related private sector FTZ Colon Transshipment ports Railroad Finance and insurance, Ship registry + Nascent value-added logistics services + Proactive Government = Regional Development Opportunities & Risks Access to markets for Panamanian/Central American goods Lower Logistics costs for the region Knock-on effects in port-cities around the hemisphere