Mid-America s Emerging Multimodal Trade & Transportation Opportunities Along the Lower Mississippi River

Transcription

1 Union League Club, Chicago, IL June 15, 2016 Mid-America s Emerging Multimodal Trade & Transportation Opportunities Along the Lower Mississippi River M. John Vickerman Williamsburg, Virginia

2 Vessel Cargo Handling Circa 1955

3 Cargo Handling Circa 2010

4 US Navy Fast Frigate Circa 2045

5 Cargo Delivery 50 Years From Now Circa 2070?

6 What We Know Today... Will Surely Be Different Tomorrow!

7 New State of Marine & Intermodal Competition Mississippi River Source: NW Seaport Alliance Strategic Business Plan, May 6, 2015

8 What Are The Future Possibilities for the Lower Mississippi River?

9 Linking Railroads, Ports, Trucks, and Waterways The Evolution of Today s Global Shipping Lanes

10 The Maritime Silk Road Replaced the Overland Silk Road as the Primary Trading Route Across Eurasia After the Tang Dynasties (618 to 907)

11 The Marine Silk Road was a Precursor to: Today s modern supply chain logistics, distribution and shipping transportation networks

12 The World s Primary Shipping Route: The Marine Silk Road

13 90% of Global Trade is Carried Out by Shipping The Majority of Today s Ocean Trade is Conducted on the Marine Silk Road

14 Indian Ocean Electric Blue Shipping Lane Trails From the Marine Silk Road

15 The World s Largest Ports Are Connected Via The Marine Silk Road Where are the Biggest Ports?

16 The On Earth, World s There Largest Are Ports More Are People Connected Living Inside This Via Circle The Marine Than Outside Silk Road the Circle

17 Global Shipping Routes Plotted by AIS GPS Today s Busiest Shipping Routes: (1) Panama Canal, (2) Suez Canal, (3) Offshore China Source: Wired Science January 2010 Journal of the Royal Society: Interface

18 Linking Railroads, Ports, Trucks, and Waterways International External Industry Pressures Driving Today s Logistics

19 More than 98% of everything we consume, wear, eat, drive and construct is brought to us via ships through the North American port system.

20 Growth in GDP and World Trade World trade will grow by 73% in the next 15 years. With merchandise trade volumes in 2025 hitting $43.6 trillion compared to today s $27.2 trillion Source: Oxford Economics 2013

21 World Trade s Share of the Economy Grows Again Source: IHS Global Insight World Trade Service

22 Economic Forecast Annual Growth Rates The expansion of the world economy is on a firm footing and the likely hood of a global recession is extremely low during the next several years. IHS anticipates that world GDP growth will average 3.6% per year over the medium term ( ). We are confident that conditions are falling into place for an extended period of improving global growth. (Per IHS / ATA) 4.0% 3.5% Economic Forecast - Annual Growth Rates in GDP 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% World GDP Canadian GDP (Real US $) US Real GDP Source: American Trucking Association Data

23 Long Term GDP Annual Growth Rates 4.5% Gross Domestic Product - Annual Growth 4.0% 3.5% Annual Growth Rate 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% World United States Canada Source: OECD Economic Forecast May 2014

24 Linking Railroads, Ports, Trucks, and Waterways America s New Energy Self Sufficiency: The Growing Importance of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and its Transport

25 Shale Gas: A Game Changer for US Competitiveness US oil production recently hit a 20-year high and could surpass Saudi Arabia s output by The US has a 100-year supply of natural gas, & will be the world s largest natural gas producer by end of Source: US Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy

26 LNG The Global Fuel of the Future: Global energy market trends are set to transform the maritime industry, with major investments to be ploughed into new LNG terminals and huge projected growth in exports expected in the coming years. Consider: Globally LNG is Virtually Sustainable, with Approximately 200 Years of Recoverable Supply By 2035, USD $2 Trillion per year is Needed to Meet Global Energy Demand Louisiana is One of the US Top Natural Gas Producers (providing almost 10% of the overall national figure) Louisiana s Haynesville-Bossier Shale Play Alone Holds Trillions of Cubic Feet of Natural Gas.

27 US Natural Gas Production (Trillions of Cubic Feet) By 2020, U.S. is Projected to Be a Net Exporter of Natural Gas Source: Derived from US Energy Information Administration: EIA AE 02014

28 US Natural Gas Production by Source (Trillion Cubic Feet) Source: Derived from US Energy Information Administration: EIA AE 02014

29 US Shale Gas Basins in North America There is Enough Recoverable Domestic Natural Gas to Meet America s Needs for at Least 100 years at Current Consumption Rates. Source: Derived from US Energy Information Administration: EIA AE 02014

30 Foreign Investment in US Gas and Oil

31 Marcellus/Utica/Appalachian Shale Basins Marcellus Shale: 1,925 billion cubic feet Utica Shale: 38.2 trillion cubic feet 20 Times Larger than Marcellus

32 US LNG Exporters Target Marcellus Shale as Feed Gas (Liquefaction Participants are Now in the Market for Dedicated Pipeline Supply to Match Their Exporting Needs) Source: Poten & Partners' in July 2014 LNG in World Markets Research Report

33 US LNG Exporters Target Marcellus Shale as Feed Gas (Liquefaction Participants are Now in the Market for Dedicated Pipeline Supply to Match Their Exporting Needs) Source: Poten & Partners' in July 2014 LNG in World Markets Research Report

34 Linking Railroads, Ports, Trucks, and Waterways World s Largest Gas Carriers VLGCs Coming to the Lower Mississippi

35 Is the Lower Mississippi River Ready for the Largest VLGCs in the World?

36 LNG Tanker Vessel Size Evolution

37 Maximum Draft for Any LNG Ship is 12 Meters (39 ft) for LNG Loading and Regasification Terminals VLGC - LNG Vessel Dimensions Length: Beam: 345 m (1,132 ft.) 53.8 m (177 ft.) Height Draft Capacity 34.7 m (114 ft.) 12 m (39 ft.) 266,000 cubic meters 9,400,000 cu ft. The first Q-Max LNG carrier, Mozah, built in November, 2007.

38 Largest Gas Ocean Carrier: Q-Max LNG By 2020 the Lower Mississippi May Experience the VLGC Design Vessel (Qatar-Max LNG Vessel Q-Max (Qatar Max) Gross Tonnage: 164,000 t Summer DWT: 129,000 t

39 Linking Railroads, Ports, Trucks, and Waterways What Determines Today s Logistics Trade Flows?

40 Poll of the Top 1000 Blue Chip Multinational Shipper Priorities 38% Competitive Freight Rate 12% Transit Time & Speed 43% Schedule Reliability & Consistency

41 Today s Logistics Truth: The customer wants more and is willing to pay less for it.

42 Functional Classification of Global Maritime Cargoes All Maritime Cargo General Cargo Bulk Cargo Break Bulk Neo-Bulk Containerized Liquid Bulk Dry Bulk Sacks, Cartons, Crates, Drums, Pallets, Bags Lumber, Paper, Steel, Autos Containers, Lift On/Lift Off (Lo/Lo), Roll On/Roll Off (Ro/Ro) LNG, Petroleum, Molasses, Chemicals, Vegetable Oil Grain, Sand & Gravel, Scrap Metal, Coal/Coke, Clinker, Fertilizer

43 The TEU (Twenty Foot Equivalent Unit) The Port & Container Shipping Unit of Measure 1 TEU = One 20 ft. ISO Container 1 FEU = 2 TEUs = One 40 ft. Container TEU 8 ft. to 9.5 ft 20 ft

44 How Much Can a Single Container Hold? (Example 40 ft. Container) 1,890 Cases Example Value $ $25.50/Case = $48,195 = $299/TV = $94,185 10,000 = $30/pair = $300,000 = 432,000 $4.00/Pack = $1,728,000

45 Linking Railroads, Ports, Trucks, and Waterways International Maritime Cargo Demand Trends

46 Historical Global Container Market Demand (Millions of TEUs) 2009 Recession North American Growth Lags Other Global Regions Source: Drewry Shipping Consultants

47 2025 World Container Port Market Demand (Millions of TEUs) 2009 Recession 260% Increase Source: Drewry Shipping Consultants October 2011

48 A Turning Point in Global Economic History The Advanced Economies Will Decline From 2/3 share of the Global Economy to a 1/3 Global Share. The Global Economy Will See Higher Average Pace of Growth in the Future Emerging Markets (BRIC Countries) Advanced Markets (NAFTA Countries) Source: IMF - Forecast by TD Economics, December 2009

49 Southeast Asian Manufacturing Centroid Shift Current Inbound US Cargo Flow U.S. Intermodal Rail Flow Expanded Asian Panama Canal 2016 Flows Western Centroid Shift Eastbound: All Water Flow Eastbound: US Intermodal Rail Flow Copyright Copyright

50 Southeast Asian Manufacturing Centroid Shift Current Inbound US Cargo Flow U.S. Intermodal Rail Flow Western Centroid Shift With Manufacturing Westbound Centroid All Water/Suez Shifts Flow Into Vietnam and/or India, The Westbound North Intermodal American U.S. Flow East Coast will See Dramatically More Westbound Suez Traffic

51 Suez Canal s $8.5 Billion Expansion Plan (A New $4 Billion 45-mile-long parallel channel and Global Logistics Park) 3 Daily Convoys: 2 Northern Convoys 1 Southern Convoy

52 The Suez Canal s $8.5 Billion Expansion of the Canal Completed September 2015 New 45-mile-long parallel channel cutting waiting times to transit by 3 hrs. from 11 hrs.

53 Dredging 180 Million Cubic Meters (35-kilometers-long and 24-meters-deep) Shipping Route in Less than One Year

54 Egyptian Jet Fighter Escort Selfie (Taken with the New Expanded Suez Canal in the Background) Source: Photo Courtesy of MIRASCO, August 2015

55 Linking Railroads, Ports, Trucks, and Waterways The Growing Asian Import Trade Challenge

56 Container Transhipment World Records Of the 10 busiest ports in the world, Nine are in Asia, of the top 10, Six are on the Chinese mainland The Port of Shanghai is No. 1, and The Port of Singapore is No.2 These Two Ports are Larger Than All North American Ports Combined

57 China-US: Twin Engines of the World 2015 Population: US: 325 million China: 1,400 million (1/5 World 19%) The number of Chinese children in elementary school is equivalent to the total US population.

58 Shanghai International Shipping Center Yangshan Deep Port & Logistics Park New Port City New Logistics Park 20 Mile New Port Access Bridge Constructed in 3 yrs 54 New Berths

59 Shanghai International Shipping Center Yangshan Deep Port - 20 Mile Bridge Access Second Longest Ocean Bridge in the World

60 Shanghai Yangshan Deep-Water Harbour Yangshan Deep Port 54 Berths East China Sea

61 Shanghai International Shipping Center Yangshan Deep Port & Logistics Park Shanghai Port Set a 2011 Record by Handling over 30 million TEUs

62 Linking Railroads, Ports, Trucks, and Waterways Maritime Vessel Technology Trends

63 World Container Ship Evolution 24% increase in the average container ship size from 2008 to 2012 The Stage is set to Jump again to 22,000 TEU Mega Container Vessels 9,000 TEUs 12,000 TEUs 15,000 TEUs 18,000 TEUs

64 Containership Orders Country of Build (Orders Since January 2010) 92% Source: Alphaliner Newsletter Volume 2011 Issue 21

65 Maersk s New 30 Vessels (ordered) are 4 Times the Current Size of the Panama Canal & 1.5 times the Size of the Expanded Panama Canal

66 Largest Container Vessel to Call in North America: ( December 26, 2015 APMT POLA - CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin 1,300 ft. LOA and 177 ft. beam, 18,000 TEUs) The massive Benjamin Franklin was tuned in 56 hours of operations, averaging 29.1 lifts per crane, per hour, averaging total 200 container moves against the vessel each hour, for a total of 11,200 lifts. The APM Terminal in Los Angeles worked as many as nine ship-to-shore cranes simultaneously against the Benjamin Franklin during its three and one-half day call.

67 2018: Ultra-Large TEUs Container Ships 2015: Maersk Planning Orders up to 10 New 20,000 TEU Ships ($1.5 Billion Order), Evergreen, Seaspan and United Arab Shipping Company (UASC) are also looking at 20,000 TEUs

68 A 20,000 TEU Mega-Container Vessel Can Produce High Intermodal Rail Volumes For One Weekly Vessel Call) EXPORT IMPORT 26.8 Double Stacked Trains 10,000 TEU Vessel Vessel Capacity 20,000 TEU (11,784 Units) Assuming a 75% Intermodal Rail Split 26.8 Double Stacked Trains

69 The New Ocean Alliance would bring the World s 3rd, 4th, 5th and 9th biggest Container Lines Together in a Vessel-Sharing Agreement Forcing the hands of the remaining players to quickly choose their strongest partners from the remnants of the CKYHE, G6 and O3 alliances

70 Linking Railroads, Ports, Trucks, and Waterways Panama Canal Expansion: New Capacity

71 Panama Canal Expansion Project Inauguration on June 26, The first ceremony will begin on the Atlantic side at the new Agura Clara Locks, followed by the new Cocoli Locks on the Pacific side

72 Panama Canal Route

73 Panama Canal Historical Tonnage Traffic Source: ACP Data

74 The Panama Canal Circa 1914

75 Panama Canal Today

76 Expansion of the Panama Canal: Circa 2016

77 Panama Canal Third Lane Expansion New Lane Existing Lanes

78 Panama Canal Third Lane Expansion

79 Panama Canal Third Lane Expansion Water-Saving Basin Reservoir System

80 Panama Canal Third Lane Expansion Sliding Caisson System

81 Panama Canal Third Lane Expansion Capabilities 2011: 4,800 TEU : 12,600 TEU Source: ACP Expansion Project

82 A Larger Share of Other Vessels Will be Able to Transit the Canal - Fully Loaded Crude Oil - 0% to 42% LNG - 10% to 90% Dry Bulk - 55% to 80%

83 Panama Canal Vessel Deployments Will Determine New US Logistics Patterns The Distance to New Orleans and Savannah Via the Panama Canal is Identical But Each Port Has Very Different Access to the US Heartland. A Competitive & Robust Landside Access to the Gateway Port s Inland Market will be a Key Success Factor!

84 Linking Railroads, Ports, Trucks, and Waterways Emerging New Caribbean Transhipment Center (Large Ship to Feeder Vessel Transfer)

85 Panama Ports Annual Transhipment Growth The Singapore of Latin America Proposed New Port Projects Would Double the Total in 5 Years

86 Panama Ports Container Transhipment Growth 6.8 Million TEUs 18.5 % Growth Rate

87 The Panama Canal Expansion Will Move the Caribbean Transhipment Center Point to Panama

88 New Panama Canal Pacific Entrance Ports More Capacity than all of the Port of Los Angeles

89 New Panama Canal Atlantic Entrance Port More Capacity than all of the Port of Houston

90 North American Vessel Transshipment: (Globally Transshipment accounts between 25 and 50% of all container volumes In the US it s < 15%) Feeder Ship Mother Ship Feeder Ship Transhipment Hub Port Induced Transshipment/Feeder Ship Operations

91 Linking Railroads, Ports, Trucks, and Waterways North American Cargo Demand Trends (Dé jà vu Experience)

92 Source: ATA US Freight Transportation 2025 Forecast

93 Transpacific Container Trade Recovery (Millions of TEUs) Note the 2 to 1 Asian Import Imbalance Source: IHS Global Insight -The Global Outlook October 14, 2010

94 Transatlantic Container Trade Recovery Source: IHS Global Insight -The Global Outlook October 14, 2010

95 Share of US Containerized Cargo Imports (US East Coast vs US West Coast Share) In 2015 US East Coast ports handled 7.9 million TEU of loaded containers, up 12.6% year-on-year US West Coast ports still handle 56% of the inbound loaded containers arriving in the US in 2015

96 Linking Railroads, Ports, Trucks, and Waterways Large Container Vessel Market Penetration into the US Midwest & Lower Mississippi River Copyright Copyright

97 Today s US Market Penetration Panama Canal Economies of Scale with permit deeper market penetration into the US Reachable Market: 46% of US Population 4,000 TEU ship, all-water. Source: PB Consultants - CSX Transportation May 12, Director of Strategic Analysis

98 Dramatic US Market Penetration after 2016 Panama Canal Economies of Scale with permit deeper market penetration into the US Reachable Market: 63% of US Population 8,000 TEU ship, all-water. Source: PB Consultants - CSX Transportation May 12, Director of Strategic Analysis

99 Dramatic US Market Penetration after 2016 Panama Canal Economies of Scale with permit deeper market penetration into the US The Midwest & the Mississippi River Valley Could be the Real Beneficiaries! Source: ACP Expansion Project Rodolfo Sabonge AAPA January 24, 2013

100 Dramatic US Market Penetration after 2016/17 Panama Canal Economies of Scale with permit deeper market penetration into the US West Coast Cost Advantage East/Gulf Coast Cost Advantage The Panama Cost Advantage Canal Area will prove to be a strong contender West of for the Asian MS River trade serving not only the US East Coast, but ALL of the Gulf and the Most of the Midwest by late Source: Potential Effects of the Panama Canal Expansion on the Texas Transportation System, Texas DOT, Cambridge Systematics October 2011

101 Regional Competitive Inland Port & Distribution Center MS River Region

102 Can Mega Container Vessels Physically Call in the Lower Mississippi River Region?

103 Mississippi River Mega Container Design Vessel: 20,000 TEUs Length m ft Breadth 58.8 m ft Load Draft 16.0 m ft TEU Capacity 20,150

104 Largest Container Vessel to Call in the Lower Mississippi River was 8,000 TEUs with a Controlling Vessel Draft at 45 ft. With a Controlling Depths at 50ft ft. the Largest Container Vessel Could Easily Reach 20,000 TEUs in the Lower Mississippi River

105 It Is Not Inconceivable that by 2020 the Lower Mississippi Design Vessel May Well be a 20,000 TEU Container Ship

106 Linking Railroads, Ports, Trucks, and Waterways Alternatives to the Panama Canal

107 The $ 40 Billion Nicaragua Wet Canal HK Nicaragua Canal Development Investment Co., the Hong Kong-based company is funding the 173-mile canal and will start in December 2014 and completed in feet to 1,706 feet wide and 90 feet deep, starts from the mouth of the Brito River on the Pacific side, passes through Lake Nicaragua (107 feet above sea level), and ends in the Punto Gorda River in the Caribbean

108 Alternative Dry Canal Proposals to Counteract Anticipated Canal Fees/Costs Dry Canal Proposed Routes APM Terminals announced $1 billion Container Port in Costa Rica China s proposal: 136-mile dry canal (Pacific Port of Buenaventura & Atlantic Coast Port of Cartagena in Colombia.

109 Linking Railroads, Ports, Trucks, and Waterways Inland Ports Defined: A Convergence of Logistic Trends

110 Inland Ports Defined A Convergence of Logistics Trends Short Sea Shipping Technology Intermodal Rail Logistics Automation Distribution Center

111 Emerging Major Inland Port Logistics Centers Throughput Capacities in Millions of TEUs

112 BNSF Logistics Park, Joliet. IL A New Model For Freight Logistics Centers Wal-Mart s New 3.4 million SF (78 acres under roof) Import Distribution Center The Cost of This Import Distribution Center was Paid for by the Savings in Truck Drayage Between the Warehouse & the Intermodal Rail Terminal

113 The Inland Port: With Integrated JIT Delivery: The Inland Port Can Greatly Increase a Regions Freight System Capacity

114 International Gross Fixed Capital Formation as a Percent of GDP (US is 32 nd in the World - Below OECD Nations) Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

115 Linking Railroads, Ports, Trucks, and Waterways Thank You