Cargo Transport on the NSR: Preliminary Cost-Benefit-Risk Analysis

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1 Cargo Transport on the NSR: Preliminary Cost-Benefit-Risk Analysis Dr. Bjørn Gunnarsson, Managing Director & Mr. Sergey Balmasov, Head of the NSR Information Office 5th Industry Seminar: Cost-Benefit-Risk Analysis of NSR Shipping DNV GL in Høvik (Oslo), Tuesday 25th of October, 2016

2 Two Cases for Cargo Transport via the NSR Case 1: Ice-strengthened vessels (e.g., Arc4) transporting cargo along the NSR during the summer-fall navigational season (July-November) with or without support from icebreakers, and the same vessels transporting cargo along the SCR during the winter season (December-June) Case 2: High ice-class cargo vessels (e.g., Arctic Shuttles of Arc8) transporting cargo year-round along the NSR between two transshipment hubs, one located at the western gateway of the NSR in the Barents Sea and the other at the eastern gateway in the Bering Sea

3 Case 1: Summer/Fall Navigation on NSR and Winter Navigation on the SCR

4 Case 1: Some Research Studies Hansen et al. (2016): Arctic Shipping Commercial Opportunities and Challenges, CBS Maritime, Copenhagen, Denmark, 93 p. Total costs per TEU of operating an ice-reinforeced (PC6) 8000 TEU vessel on the NSR during the summer-fall navigational season and the SCR during the rest of the year, compared to three ordinary open-water vessels of 8000, and TEUs using only the SCR. Investigated under two different sea-ice senarios and three fuel price projections (initially set at 400, 550 and 750 USD/mt). Haeffele, N. J. (2013): The Feasibility and the Economic Viability of Shipping LNG via the Northern Sea Route, Master s Thesis at Norwegian School of Economics, Bergen, Norway, 120 p. The study evaluates the profitability for a trader of shipping LNG via the NSR on a round trip Hammerfest-Yokohama for two different sizes of ice-reinforced (A1) LNG carriers ( m3 and m3; fueled by HFO or BOG) compared to ordinary carriers of the same sizes on the SCR. Additonally, the study compares the economics of shipping via the NSR for the summer-fall season and SCR for the rest of the year, compared to shipping only along the SCR.

5 Case 1: Some Research Studies Omre, A. (2012): An Economic Transport Sysem of the Next Generation Integrating the Northern and Southern Passages, Master s Thesis at Norwegian University of Science & Technology, Trondheim, Norway, 89 p. Development of a transport simulation model to investigate the economic feasibility of the NSR transport system as an alternative route to the SCR during the navigational season August-November. The study investigates possible container transport between Rotterdam and Yokohama via the NSR (with icebreaker support), by slow steaming or increasing the number of transits per year; comparing four different ice classes of vessels (1A Super, 1A, 1B and 1C); seven sea-ice scenarios; and the number of vessels in the fleet.

6 Case 2: Year-Round Navigation on the NSR between two Transshipment Hubs

7 Feeder Ships Case 2: Arctic Transshipment Hubs Feeder Ships Year-Round Cargo Transportation NSR WEST Eastbound Westbound NSR EAST Transshipment Hub A High Ice- Class Vessels High Ice- Class Vessels Transshipment Hub B

8 Case 2: Arctic Transshipment Hubs To Northwest Europe To East Coast of America Kirkenes-Murmansk To West Coast of America Provideniya Anadyr Nome Anchorage Dutch Harbor Adak Island Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky To Northeast Asia An image of the Arctic sea ice on March 24, 2016 (maximum ice extent)

9 Case 2: Arctic Transshipment Hubs Petropaviovsk- Kamchatsky Dutch Harbor An image of the 2015 Arctic maximum sea ice on February 25, 2015

10 What Makes a Port an Important Transshipment Hub? Location: Proximity to several shipping routes and preferably at the end of a major international route; were routes divide and ships head for a number of destinations Proximity to an international airport is no less important if the port is to fulfill its role as a link in the transport systems of international shipping companies Proximity to urban centres and their transport networks is an advantage, but urban development close to ports can limit future expansion possibilities It is essential to choose the location for transshipment ports and plan such ports with care and due regard for environmental requirements

11 What Makes a Port an Important Transshipment Hub? Natural Conditions: The port needs to be sufficiently deep and wide, and have clear approaches that can accommodate the largest ships on the routes they serve Land must be available to extend operations or build new wharfs to allow for future increases in shipping; several hundred hectares of land would be required for cargo/container storage and industries related to port operations Good shelter from swells and wind is essential; large ships are susceptible to strong winds as are cranes

12 What Makes a Port an Important Transshipment Hub? Port Services: Effective port facilities (large cranes and other loading equipment) and high level of performance (short time to load and unload cargoes) Effective cargo storage facilities; oil/lng storage facilities are essential prerequisites for providing for the energy needs of a fleet of cargo vessels Access to a wide range of support services including repair and maintenance services; water and electricity; maritime industries; labour Good air traffic system and efficient international communication channels Effective environmental management scheme to protect the environment and ensure quick reaction in cases of pollution risk and accidents

13 Why are Transshipment Hubs Important for the NSR? High ice-class Arctic shuttles would be solely employed on Arctic voyages Fully utilize specialized high-ice class Arctic vessels in the most econmically efficient way Provide cargo storage facilities for both destinational Arctic shipping and transit shipping; serve industrial purposes Increased transshipment simplifies the transport network allowing it to deal with increased volume resulting in reduced shipping costs Transshipment hubs in the northern latitutdes would add a new dimension to global trade routes

14 Dutch Harbor International Port Cargo Pier Depth: m

15 Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky Sea Port Anchorage Depth: m Cargo Pier Depth: m

16 Major Cost Elements of Operating a Ship Operating Costs of Vessel: * Crew * Insurance * Repair & Maintenance * Stores & Lubricants * Winterization * General Costs Periodic Maintenance Costs: * Dry-Docking (every 2-years) * Special Servey (every 4-years) Voyage Costs: * Bunker fuel * Oil * Port Dues * Transit Fees (NSR and SCR) Cargo Handling Costs: * Discharging Cargo * Loading Cargo Capital Costs: * Repayment of Loan * Interest Payments on Loan

17 Kirkenes-Dutch Harbor Overall Scheme

18 Kirkenes-Dutch Harbor Distances NSR part Route KKN-DTH KKN-DTH KKN-DTH Ice class ARC 7 ARC 8 ARC 8 name CNIIMF data FEDF data CBS data 1 VESSEL TYPE / NUMBER OF TEU LOA ,5 3 BEAM 32,2 34,6 42,91 4 DRAFT 11 13,5 14,33 5 GRT Crew cost per year KKN Zhelania 770 KKN Kara gate 570 KKN Zhelania 770 KKN Kara gate 570 Kara gate Vilkitskiy 830 Zhelania Vilkitskiy 450 Zhelania Vilkitskiy 450 Vilkitskiy Longa San 1330 Vilkitskiy Longa N 1250 Kara gate Vilkitskiy 830 Longa Bering 400 Longa Bering 400 Vilkitskiy Longa N 1250 Bering DTH 800 Bering DTH 800 Vilkitskiy Longa San Longa Bering Bering DTH 800

19 Kirkenes-Dutch Harbor Location of ice of different ages January February March April May June July August September October November December

20 Kirkenes-Dutch Harbor Distances in ice covered waters and at open sea KKN - DTH parts Jan Feb March April May June July August September October November December fixed port KKN 150 nmiles before C Zhelania changespoint where no ice all time ice edge in the West by month calculat ice edge in the West ice edge in the East fixed DTH port point where no ice all time E changespoint where no ice all time E ice edge in the East Total distance open water distance ice covered waters distance total Average speed in ice by CNIIMF speed in ice with fixed ice breaker support REDUCED speed in ice with fixed ice breaker support speed in open waters time for passage in open water time for passage in ice with Reduced speed time for passage in ice total time for passage (CNIIMF speed) total time for passage (with Reduced speed) Round trip voyage duration days for passage to one direction reduced speed 13,1 15,9 18,4 21,7 17,3 12,4 10,5 8,8 8,8 8,8 10,3 12,6 loading / discharging in Kirkenes 3,6 3,6 3,6 3,6 3,6 3,6 3,6 3,6 3,6 3,6 3,6 3,6 average ib waiting time weather related delay ,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 1 1 loading / discharging in DTH 3,6 3,6 3,6 3,6 3,6 3,6 3,6 3,6 3,6 3,6 3,6 3,6 ib waiting time days for passage to one direction reduced speed 13,1 15,9 18,4 21,7 17,3 12,4 10,5 8,8 8,8 8,8 10,3 12,6 weather related delay ,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 1 1 Round trip / total days 37,5 43,1 47,9 54,5 45,7 35,0 29,1 25,8 25,8 25,8 31,9 36,3

21 Kirkenes-Dutch Harbor time days trip N departure arrival days ib cost USD 37,5 45,5 51,2 40, KKN - DTH - KKN KKN - DTH KKN - DTH KKN - DTH jan feb apr may/june 18,7 21,5 24,0 22, jan mar may june 18,7 24,0 27,3 17, ,1 5 KKN - DTH june / july 14, july 14, ,8 25,8 25,8 28,8 31, KKN - DTH KKN - DTH KKN - DTH KKN - DTH KKN - DTH KKN - DTH aug aug sep oct nov ,9 12,9 12,9 12,9 15,9 Total aug sep sep oct dec ,9 12,9 12,9 15,9 15, Costs of ice breaker support Modeling of year round transportation USD RUR GRT ice breaker support Jan Feb March April May June July August September October November December GRT tariff type: winter or summer winter winter winter winter winter winter summer summer summer summer summer winter number of NSR zones rub / us 62 tariff per GRT 1 313, , , , , ,97 315,29 0,00 0,00 0,00 315, ,72 price in USD VAT Total price

22 Kirkenes-Dutch Harbor Millions USD TEU Loan payback Crew Fuel Insurance Arctic insurance Repairs Cargo handling Ice breaker Ice pilotage Ice forecast General costs Port dues

23 Kirkenes-Dutch Harbor Millions USD TEU Loan payback Crew Fuel Insurance cost Arctic insurance Repairs Cargo handling Ice breaker Ice pilotage Ice forecast General costs Port dues

24 Kirkenes-Dutch Harbor Millions USD TEU Loan payback Crew Fuel Insurance cost Arctic insurance Repairs Cargo handling Ice breaker Ice pilotage Ice forecast General costs Port dues

25 Kirkenes-Dutch Harbor Millions USD Comparison Loan payback Crew Fuel Insurance cost Arctic insurance Repairs Cargo handling Ice breaker Ice pilotage Ice forecast General costs Port dues TEU TEU

26 Shipping Containers on the NSR Some Basic Facts: Container ships operate on regular schedules and follow set routes, calling at a number of ports to load and unload cargo. Profitability can ony be achieved with large-scale shipping based on stable and predictable year-round operations The ability to schedule voyages a long time in advance and to guarantee uninterrupted services is considered key for container ship operators (predictability, punctuality and large volumes-economy of scale) Container shipping occurs on a just in-time-schedule in order to reduce costs associated with warehousing and storage. Cargo owners that operate in the liner segment consider the frequency of sailings as an important factor of the freight service A traditional liner sevice between Europe and the Far East visits 7-10 ports during a roundtrip

27 Shipping Containers on the NSR Evolution of Containerships

28 Shipping Containers on the NSR Containerized Cargo on NSR: Full-scale container shipping on the NSR as part of world trade is problematic, as the required conditions for liner services cannot be easily met Containers can be transported with the Arctic Container Shuttles to the transshipment hubs on either side of the NSR few days before the scheduled delivery in NW Europe or NE Asia and storaged until feeder ships carry the containerized cargo from the transshipment hubs to the final destination based on pre-determined delivery schedule The Arctic Container Shuttles sail only between the two transshipment hubs. Subsequently there is no need for other less ice-strengthened (e.g., 1A, 1B, 1C) container/general cargo vessels to transit the NSR during parts of the year, which should reducing the operational cost of having several vessels with ice class in your fleet

29 Shipping Containers on the NSR Containerized Cargo on NSR: Transport of containers via the NSR that are less time-sensitive than regular containerized cargo (few days delay would not be a big issue); then define what kind of containerized cargo we might be talking about Slow steaming also provides the possibility to maintain a more regular schedule, i.e. if the Arctic Shuttle is delayed because of sea-ice, weather or other unforeseen events, the vessel operator can make up for the lost time by increasing the speed

30 Shipping Containers on the NSR Containerized Cargo on NSR: The low temperature might further affect the cargo transported along the NSR. This might mean that not all types of containerized cargo can be transported Container vessels navigating via the NSR will be exposed to icing. Icing will affect a typical container vessel heavily because of the topside containers, which are exposed to spray, particularly in the bow section of the vessel. Due to the stacking of topside containers, it will also become difficult to remove ice. Icing will also result in large impact on the stability of the vessel if the topside cargo becomes packed with ice Cargo owners with high-value commodities may prioritize a more secure transportation where the risk of damage is low. The NSR will not be competitive with the SCR when it comes to the risk of damage because of sea ice and limited rescue facilities on route Specially designed container ships that minimizing the effects of icing

31 Shipping Containers on the NSR MMC Norilsk Nickel: Year-round Arctic marine transport system: MMC Norilsk Nickel started year-round cargo transportation between Dudinka on the Yenisei River and Murmansk during the winter ; the first years with assistance from nuclear icebreakers and then with Norlisk-Class (SA-15) multipurpose carriers capable of independent navigation that revolutionized Arctic shipping (AMSA 2009) The current fleet includes five Arc7 Azipod and double-acting general cargo/container vessels with excellent icebreaking capabilities, and one tanker with same characteristics; vessels break through level sea ice of 1.5 m at 3 knots without icebreaker assistance; vessels delivered between Vessels: Norilskiy Nickel, Monchegorsk, Zapolyarny, Talnakh and Nadezdha (length 168 m, 14,500 dwt, 650 TEU capacity) and the 18,599 dwt tanker Enisey (delivered in 2011)

32 Shipping Containers on the NSR COSCO s Yong Sheng COSCO s Tian Xi Atomflot s Sevmorput Transits of General Cargo and Containers by COSCO and Atomflot s Sevmorput: COSCO has announced seasonal semi-liner operation to start in 2016; multi-purpose vessel MV Yong Sheng (Arc4) transited NSR in 2013 and 2015 (160 m in length and dwt of 19,150). Two general cargo vessels transit the NSR in 2016 Yong Sheng and Tian Xi (38,098 dwt and 190 m in length); in addition to COSCO s three heavy lift carriers Xian He Kou, Xiang Yun Kuo and Xia Zhi Yuan 6 The world s only nuclear-powered container ship Sevmorput is ready in 2016 for shipping along Russia s Arctic coast and for transit voyages between Murmansk and Petropavlovsk- Kamchatka (250 m in length and dwt of 62,000; 29.4 MW; container capacity 1,328 TEUs)

33 Reefer Skyfrost Shipping Containers on the NSR Transit Shipments with Seafood: Reefer Bereg Nadezhdy Reefer Winter Bay Eight transits took place with frozen fish and fish products on the NSR; from Petropavlovsk- Kamchatskiy to St. Petersburg (5), from Vladivostok to St. Petersburg (1); from Tromsø to Osaka in Japan (1); and from Nakhodka to Murmansk (1) Frozen seafood is commonly shipped in refrigerated containers (reefer containers). Reefer containers come with an integral refrigeration and ventilation unit that controls the temperature inside the container Reefer containers are also used in transporting fruits and vegetables (most common use); meat and poultry; wines; medicines; fresh-cut flowers

34 Cost-Benefit-Risk Analysis Negative for NSR Crew Costs Insurance Costs SCR Positive for NSR Repair & Maintenance Costs Port Dues & Cargo Handling Costs NSR Tariff Fees Vessels Capital Costs (Ice-Class) Waiting Time High Time Charter Costs Bunker Fuel Costs Fuel Consumption Voyage Time Voyage Distance

35 Cost-Benefit-Risk Analysis Negative for NSR Cargo Availability in both Directons Delivery Time Sensitivity of Cargo SCR Positive for NSR Repositioning Cost of the Vessels Price Differences between Markets High Freight Rates High Commodity Prices

36 Cost-Benefit-Risk Analysis Negative for NSR Winterization Costs of Vessels Safety Concerns - SAR SCR Emissions Positive for NSR Cargo Volume (Vessel s Size) Multiple Container Port Visits Communication Systems Year-Round Operations Hydrogr. Surveying & Charting Sea-Ice and Weather Forcasting On-Time Delivery & Regularity Oil Spill Response Needs for Icebreakers/Ice Pilots

37 Cost-Benefit-Risk Analysis Negative for NSR Remoteness & Long Distances Deep-Water Ports Enviro. disasters in Arctic waters SCR Positive for NSR Arcic Maritime Business Opportunities Arctic Energy & Mining Projects Continued Reduction in Arctic Sea Ice Diversification of Maritime Transport Investments in Arctic Infrastructure Int. Economic Cooperation in the Arctic Arctic Regional Dev./Industrialization High Demand for Arctic Res./Products

38 Thank You! 38

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