INTERMODAL ENVIRONMENT 2015

Transcription

1 INTERMODAL ENVIRONMENT 2015 CCIB CONFERENCE July 28,

2 Ships At Anchor Waiting To Get Into LALB

3 Congestion To Enter Maersk Terminal

4 Containers Waiting To Get Into Maersk Terminal For Export 4

5 Lunar New Year Shadow Effect 5

6 Cargo Returns to Pre-Recession Levels and Worst Effects of Labor Disruption

7 22 Containers Across Requires Newer, Larger Cranes 7

8 The world's biggest ship - for 53 days 8 China Shipping 19,100 TEU to be eclipsed by MSC 19,224 TEU

9 What Does It Take to Unload A Mega Container Ship 9

10 Drewry Says Carriers Will Struggle To Break Even This Year As many as 129 ships of 8,000 TEUs and above need homes in second half of Drewry : Avgerage Global Freight Rates Could Decline Fastest Pace Since Maersk orders nine 14,000 TEU Ships after their order for eleven 19,630 TEU Triple-E Vessels. COSCO orders nine 20,000-TEU ships for Europe Service. Elusive peak season and excess capacity drives trans-pacific rate to record lows.

11 Carriers Preparing for Panama Expansion April 2016 container ships of 13,000-TEUs. Six new Asia to U.S. East Coast since Jan. Cap in AWEC pricing Shanghai to New York vs Los Angeles shrunk from $2800 during disruption to $1700 by May. Recent surge in AWEC Asia to U.S. has been via Suez Canal because of ability to handle larger ships but trend is now shifting back to Panama.

12 Courtesy IMS Worldwide

13 East Coast Ports Benefit From Diversion Virginia Por Authority volume record in May. All major EC Ports saw cargo increase in the nine months from July 2014 through March 2015 partly due to WC labor issues. S.C. and Georgia Port Authorities have agreed to jointly contribute to funding for Jasper Terminal. Maersk returns to Baltimore after 20 year absence because larger ships make it more economical to travel up Chesapeake Bay. CN will develop Mobile Intermodal Facility patterned after Prince Rupert Success. 13

14 West Coast Transload

15 Intermodal has dramatically increased its share of US railroad units (carloads, trailers & containers) Introduction to Intermodal Source: AAR, Stifel Nicolaus estimates Note: Volumes in all categories are measured in carloads, except IML which is measured in units IML share is estimated because the AAR includes intermodal volume in various other freight categories

16 Total Intermodal Loadings % 60.0% 55.0% 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% Source: 2006 IANA/FTR Domestic International

17 Total Intermodal Loadings Millions

18 Intermodal Outlook International growth will be dependent on the strength of our economy. Domestic traffic will continue to grow as more carriers recognize the synergies of rail intermodal and continue to adopt regional business models focused on dedicated relationships vs. scattering of trucks. The long term caveat determining the growth of domestic traffic will be the IPI rates of the Western railroads.

19 Why is Domestic Growing Number of Boxes increasing Fuel Costs increases lead to more intermodal Huge investments in infrastructure by railroads Truck driver shortages Conversion of barge and box car to intermodal Transloading of intl containers increasing Improved Technology/Visibility LTL/Parcel jumping on Board

20 Unit Count Intermodal 53 Container Fleets - United States (dry, for railroad) 73,300 JBHU - JB Hunt (+7300 from last year; doesn't include 200 reefer cntrs) 28,400 HGIU, HGWU, UPHU, NHUU, NHWU, HUNU - Hub Group (+3400 from last year) 17,500 PACU - Pacer (-500 from last year) 17,200 SNLU - Schneider (+3,200 from last year) 9150 SWRU - Swift (+450 from last year) 5000 UPSU - UPS (unchanged) 1850 FDXU, FEDU - FedEx Freight, FedEx Ground (1750 FDXU, 100 FEDU) 1000 APDU - APL Logistics (unchanged) 1000 RBTU - CH Robinson (unchanged) 800 UTLU - Universal Logistics (unchanged, some leased to FedEx) 600 MEQU - Milestone (unchanged)(pool equipment, currently all under lease) 475 CFQU - COFC Logistics (-25 from last year, adding 300 this year, from Marten fleet) 400 MTLU - Marten (ending, 300 will be going to COFC) 300 MLHU - Matson Logistics (+100 from last year) 125 DRTU - Dart (-225 from last year) 100 WARU - White Arrow (+35 from last year) 20 AMHU - American Highway (unchanged) 16 WERU - Werner (pilot program started 2014) total managed by United States, Motor Carrier & 3PL 157,236 (141,550 in 2014) +15,686 since last year

21 Intermodal 53 Container Fleets - United States (dry, for railroad) 38,800 EMHU - UP/NS/CP (+6800 from last year) 35,000 UMAX - UP/CSX (+4000 from last year) 4000 CSXU - CSX (unchanged) 900 TMXU - NS Thoroughbred Direct (unchanged) Unit Count 800 XFEU - Florida East Coast (+400 from last year) total managed by United States, Railroad (68,300 in 2014) 79, ,200 since last year 157,236 total managed by United States, Motor Carrier & 3PL grand total managed by United States, Railroad+Motor Carrier & 3PL (209,850) +26,886 since last year +12.8% increase in total fleet size 236,736 Unit Count 8250 Intermodal 53 Container Fleets Canada (dry, for railroad) CNRU - Canadian National (unchanged, includes Dry and Heated, doesn't include reefer boxes) CPPU - Canadian Pacific (+350 includes Dry and Heated, doesn't include reefer boxes) ,700 total managed by Canada, Railroad around 3000 x 53 containers made for ocean vessels (Trailer Bridge, Crowley, Sea Star, Alaskan Marine, Totem) data as of Feb 1, researched by Jason Hilsenbeck, owner of

22 Most Common Job by State Source: NPR s Planet Money ACT Research Co., LLC, Copyright

23 Driver Shortage? 160 Percent Turnover ATA: For-Hire TL Carrier Driver Turnover Q3 Large TL Turnover Small TL Turnover LTL 160 Percent Turnover NPTC Benchmark Survey: Private Fleet Driver Turnover Note that the axis is the same on both graphs American Trucking Associations, ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2015 National Private Truck Council, ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2014 Not surprisingly, private fleet drivers make $20k-plus more per year on average than for-hire drivers and they also get home more regularly! From NTI (Klemp): For-hire median ~$46k, Private fleet ~$68k ACT Research Co., LLC, Copyright

24 DRIVER SUPPLY: U.S. MALES Potential Hirees & Impending Retirees Warm Bodies (000s) 21 Year-olds 65 Year-olds SUPPLY OF INCOMING CDL-AGE U.S. MALES NARROW S HARD TO FIND DRIVERS NOT SO HARD TO FIND DRIVERS U.S. MALES AT RETIREMENT AGE RISES SHARPLY Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2015

25 WHAT TO TAKE HOME FROM CCIB Domestic container loadings still carry the day. RR service and infrastructure improvements. Truck capacity & drivers remain tight. Nearly 250,000 DomCons now in fleet. Market share conversion continues 25

26 Thank You For Your Time 26