PORT INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: SOME ISSUES FROM A GLOBAL CHALLENGE Les enjeux mondiaux des infrastructures portuaires en Mediterranée

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1 PORT INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: SOME ISSUES FROM A GLOBAL CHALLENGE Les enjeux mondiaux des infrastructures portuaires en Mediterranée Paolo Costa paolo.costa@unive.it paolo.costa@cplus3c.com

2 The Mediterranean: a sea at the crossroad of many global issues The port infrastructure issue: --one among many other global issues affecting security, prosperity, sustainability and identity of people inhabiting the Mediterranean shores --a strategic one --within the realm of prosperity and sustainability-- because is confronting us with a long term change in paradigm in port structure affecting all economic and social relations within the Mediterranean and between our mare nostrum and the rest of the world

3 The port infrastructure issue and this presentation : A conceptual framework and some empirical evidence

4 The roots of the current port infrastructure issue Ports are worldwide confronted with technical obsolescence and the risk of being cut out of fast-changing carrier networks (geographical obsolescence) because of: -- regionally diversified global growth -- mega container ships -- new global networks via selected consolidation of major routes A port revolution that is mirroring the long term oligopolistic struggle in the global maritime transport market

5 The roots of the current port infrastructure issue Ports have been trying ( ) to face these challenges through a better use of their existing capacity: --organizational innovation; --from port services to hinterland services via multimodal cargo logistics networks; -- alliances with shippers, 3PLs and other landside supply chain operators) But now they need to make their capacity adequate, adding/changing pieces of infrastructure for attracting direct calls form ocean-going vessels --in every port? --consolidating port services for mega ships in few major ports? --creating innovative multiport gateway systems?

6 The roots of the current port infrastructure issue The port infrastructure issue is particularly acute in the Mediterranean due to: -- regionally diversified global (and Mediterranean) growth (European west-east economic shift; Turkey; Egipt; African rim) -- mega container ships (Europe-Far East relation) -- new global networks via selected consolidation of major routes (new Suez Canal vs Panama Canal) -- oligopolistic consolidation of ocean carriers (asymmetry in maritime vs port bargaining power) -- integration of supply chain segments driven by multimodal oligopolistic actors (multimodal, multilocation, intrafirm)

7 The risky business of the long term port infrastructure response Transport Infrastructure: any physical component of transport systems providing services essential to enable, sustain, or enhance people and/or commodities mobility; made of transport nodes (like ports), transport links, all combined in transport networks Sources of risks Supply of transport infrastructure: long gestation and longer use periods Demand for transport infrastructure: (a double derived demand) a function of demand for transport services that are, in turn a function of level and location of production and consumption

8 THE VIRTUOUS CIRCLE BETWEEN TRANSPORT AND TRAFFIC GLOBAL NETWORKS Ports are nodes in transport networks that affect, temporarily, the traffic flow geometry (a function of level and location of production and consumption) that in the long run will ask for a new network geometry Port infrastructure are an immovable chosen asset

9 --How global (and Mediterranean) growth and trade are affecting mediterranean maritime flows and ports? --Which is the contribution of locational change and environmental sustainability? --Which is the effect of the irresitible (container)ship size growth?

10 Challenges coming from world seaborn trade: time and space evolution

11 World and GDP Seaborn trade: time evolution

12 Global trade

13 Global Trade

14 Global trade 2050 Global scenario 2050 forecast ITF Transport Outlook 2015 International trade is estimated to grow by a factor of 3.4 by Between 2010 and 2060 intra OECD countries trade will halve : Non OECD countries trade will more than double Asia linked international trade corridors will grow most! 14

15 GLOBAL MARITIME CONTAINER TRAFFIC FLOWS Transatlantica: 6,6 mln di TEU Intra Asia: 59,3 mln di TEU Transatlantica: 6,6 mln di TEU Europa-Asia: 22,4 mln di TEU Transpacifica: 22,2 mln di TEU

16 Mediterranean sea and Europe-Asia sea borne flows via Suez Canal CONTAINER TRAFFIC FLOW (TEU X 1000) IN OUT CONTAINER TRAFFIC FLOW (TEU X 1000) IN OUT SUEZ SUEZ BLACK SEA BLACK SEA MEDITERRANEAN MEDITERRANEAN GIBRALTAR GIBRALTAR NORTH EUROPE NORTH EUROPE BALTIC SEA Source: VPA elaboration on Suez Canal Authority data BALTIC SEA

17 Mediterranean sea and Europe-Asia sea borne flows via Suez Canal IMPORT EXPORT ,0% ,5% ,7% +109,6% MED NORD EU MAR NERO AMERICA AFRICA BALTICO MED NORD EU MAR NERO AMERICA AFRICA BALTICO Source: VPA elaboration on Suez Canal Authority data

18 Challenges coming from intramediterranean growth and trade (east bound shifts)

19 GDP mediterranean countries 2004 NE 20% France Italy Italy Slovenia Croatia Bosnia NO 58% SO 12% SE 10% Albania Spain Spain Greece Turkey Morocco Tunisia Lebanon Algeria Lybia Lybia Egypt Israel Jordan

20 GDP mediterranean countries 2015 NE 16% France Slovenia NO 52% SE 20% Italy Italy Croatia Bosnia SO 12% Albania Spain Spain Greece Turkey Morocco Tunisia Lebanon Algeria Lybia Lybia Egypt Israel Jordan

21 Mediterranean countries keep growing imprese italiane in Tunisia, più di in Turchia, Oltre 200 in Marocco e Egitto, circa 100 in Algeria

22 Challenges coming from European economic locational change and environmental sustainability

23 Europe: the eastbound manufacturing shift Share of manufacturing employment on total employment: (source: VPA elaboration on Eurostat data)

24 The Mediterranean greenest route Asia-Europe Source: SoNoRa, New UE Freight Corridors in the area of the Central Europe, Research Unit, Transport, Territory and Logistics (TTL) University IUAV of Venice, Dec KG CO2/TEU

25 Challenges coming from the irresistible (container) ship size growth

26 The long term march of container shipping gigantism

27 Containerization: a continuous process

28 Average ship size on most trade lanes (TEU)

29 ize distibution of Container Vessel Stock

30 Size distribution of container vessel order book

31 The «overcapacity» post-truth enigma Mol Triumph TEU (400x58.8x16) larger than Msc Oscar TEU Overcapacity: adding new apples to old potatos Too many new ships (+8% global tonnage), too few old one scrapped (-3%) New ships polarized distribution: over TEU below TEU ask for polarized distribution of ports? The trap of existing vs adequate (size and location) port facilities

32 Mediterranean port traffic: recent trends

33 MED Ports Traffic (TEU): the great recession and the new (slow) recovery Source: Port of Venice Authority 33

34 Container traffic in 38 porti del Mediterraneo (mil. TEU - variaz.%) Fonte: Elaborazioni dell autore su dati raccolti da siti internet, autorità portuali, autorità governative, Ministeri * Algeria, Croazia, Libano, Portogallo, Slovenia, Tunisia

35 Mediterranean port infrastructure models

36 Mediterranean port infrastructure models

37 Mediterranean port infrastructure models Transhipment vs Direct Call Transhipment: hub and spoke -- hub in the southern Mediterrnanean African rim (near Gibraltar and Suez) -- spoke in the northern Mediterranean European rim

38 Mediterranean port infrastructure models Transhipment vs Direct Call Direct call -- Few northern Mediterranean European port (east more than west) -- Multiport gateway system

39 Multiport gateway systems: two North Adriatic examples CHIOGGIA (ONSHORE TERMINAL) RAVENNA (ONSHORE TERMINAL) «ONE CALL» OFFSHORE-ONSHORE INNOVATIVE WEST TERMINAL MODEL VENICE (ONSHORE TERMINAL) OFFSHORE TERMINAL «MULTI CALL» TRADITIONAL EAST TERMINAL MODEL TRIESTE MEGA SHIPS / TEUs KOPER RIJEKA MEGA SHIPS / TEUs

40 Multiport gateway systems The Venice Offshore-Onshore Port System (VOOPS)

41 The Venice Offshore-Onshore Port System the direct call «one offshore-many onshore» model MAMA VESSEL 41

42 The Venice Offshore-Onshore Port System Container Terminal Energy Terminal Offshore terminal

43 The Venice Offshore-Onshore Port System Mama Vessel and Cassettes Core innovation of the VOOPS system (flexible, environmental friendly, resilient)

44 The New maritime Silk Road (One Belt One Road Strategy) and the Chinese approach to the Mediterranean sea

45 Map showing some of the potential routes of the maritime and land Silk Road that was published online by Xinhua, China s state news agency, in March 2014 Source: (2014) USA? (East Coast) Source: Limes, 1/2017 (2017) 45

46 Thank you for your attention! Prof. Paolo COSTA