Commercial drivers for new storage capacity. Platts European Storage Conference Amsterdam, January 2015
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1 Commercial drivers for new storage capacity Platts European Storage Conference Amsterdam, January 2015
2 Disclaimer Copyright RPS Energy Ltd This presentation is prepared by RPS Energy for the Platts European Storage Conference Amsterdam, January It may not be used for any other purposes, reproduced in whole or in part, nor passed to any organisation or person without the specific permission in writing of the Commercial Manager, RPS Energy Ltd. The opinions, interpretations and forecasts presented in this report represent our best interpretation of the data made available to us. However, due to the uncertainty inherent in the estimation of all market related issues, we cannot and do not guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any interpretation and we shall not, except in the case of gross or wilful negligence on our part, be liable or responsible for any loss, cost damages or expenses incurred or sustained by anyone resulting from any interpretation made by any of our officers, agents or employees. 2
3 RPS Energy Who we are RPS Group The RPS Group is a FTSE 250 company with a turnover of $700m, and has over 4,000 employees worldwide providing specialist consulting services International Energy Environment Management Health & Safety Land, Property, Infrastructure Development RPS Energy began as a technical upstream consulting business, but is now one of the world s leading suppliers of independent commercial advisory services, project management support, and transaction support for the energy sector We operate from main locations in Europe, North America, Asia and the Middle East and employ 500 dedicated professionals supported by over 1,000 specialist associates Operations Support Technical Studies Commercial Advisory Emerging Areas We carry out 1000 projects a year for clients including Governments, National Oil Companies, Integrated Majors, Independents, Financial Institutions Exploration & Production LNG Downstream RPS Downstream has assembled a team of 50+ sector specialists who have extensive practical business experience across all elements of the Downstream Value Chain. Our clients tell us that this provides a uniquely differentiated consulting service 3
4 RPS Energy Downstream Consultancy Deep industry expertise across the value chain Specialist Practices Refining, Trading and Supply Commercial Fuels & Specialities Lubricants Retail Performance improvement and market insight Operational Optimisation Organisation & Capability Margins & Working Cap Supply Chain & Channel of Trade Offer & Pricing Development Brand & Marketing Major Accident Risk Assessment and Prevention Strategy Delivery Market & Competitor Analysis Strategic Planning & Option Generation M&A and Business Integration Support Strategy Implementation & Market Entry Support 4
5 Our Refining, Trading and Supply Practice covers business processes from crude acquisition through to product disposal Strategic Option Evaluation, Acquisition Due Diligence & Support Crude Selection & Procurement Crude Storage and Blending Refining Product Blending & Grade Optimisation Primary Distribution & Terminals Crude Trading Market Products Trading Market Major Accident Risk Assessment & Prevention Efficiency Sustainable improvements in inventory management and working capital Organisational and business simplification to reduce cost and improve efficiency Operational and maintenance assessments to drive efficiency and compliance opportunities Capability and Optimisation Review production planning and scheduling to improve product and quality availability Assessment of plant availability and utilisation to achieve yield maximisation and process optimisation Develop offsite and tank farm configuration to optimise grade flexibility Margin, Trading and Supply Extract value from flexible crude selection, plant utilisation and product manufacture Achieve value add though use of forward markets Optimisation beyond the refinery by using integrated pricing processes, and leveraging marginal volumes, product mix and offtake patterns 5
6 6 Commercial drivers for new storage capacity: changing trading flows, refining trends and strategic investments
7 Interest for storage Storage Sources of Value Market Structure Distressed Cargoes Bulk breaking / making Arbitrage cargoes Blending Tenders Logistic infrastructure access Market Insights CSO 3 axis to be considered from a trading point of view: time / geography / quality of products Level of oil price and future oil price General sentiment: the price of crude was backwardated for the period with a slow contango taking over from 2015 to 2018 Arbitrage opportunities / taking advantage of structural inefficiencies in global supply and demand mass balances Changes in product specifications and variations between different geographies Ability to blend components for finished product on spec Political and regulatory environment Safe Haven avoid transshipment environmental and piracy issues Change in demand / supply patterns 7
8 Building Competitive Advantage for an Oil Terminal Geographical location located on oil international routes, guarded from adverse weather conditions Logistics infrastructure deep sea access, sufficient pumping rates, access to marketing infrastructure Close cooperation with port authorities and effective planning for decongestion Supply reliability and on time delivery Barging / bunkering operations Road loading terminal / pipeline connections Meeting the demands of modern ships and provide adequate fuels that meet new environmental requirements Port related services and handling fees for the vessels Ability to bulk break or build large parcels also blend both domestic and imported refinery components into finished products ready for export 8
9 Capacity growth drivers Capacity growth in recent years has targeted the supply of storage into trader or oil major (NOCs and independent refiners) owned facilities - all the newer operators have their own trading or supply activities This leaves the independent storage firms and IOCs not leading recent industry s growth Traders and major oil companies have diversified their access to logistics positions by investing in terminals together with local partners or independent storage companies and lowered their exposure to the more volatile floating storage options A recent trend by the trading houses though is to build capacity for clean products, semi-finished, condensates, additives and bio-elements and use key hubs as the UAE as a bulk breaking / blending destination for import / export options Backwardation and low freight rates have reduced the incentive in recent years for increasing crude storage 9
10 A Contango market : news this week Brent Futures ICE 19 th January UAE oil minister says low oil prices won't last for long, Reuters Jan 2015 Slump in oil prices curbs inflation expectations globally, Reuters Jan 2015 Commodity Traders Exploit Crude Crash to Make Oil Storage King, Bloomberg The International Energy Agency said last Friday that there were signs lower prices had begun to curb production in some areas, including North America. The IEA said that while a price recovery may not be imminent, "signs are mounting that the tide will turn". 10
11 Crude across the world Jan 2015 US: WTI $/bbl Europe: Brent $/bbl ME Gulf: Dubai $/bbl Oil prices have dropped 60 percent since June 2014 as the U.S. pumped more shale crude and OPEC s desire to maintain market share resisted calls to cut production, resulting to a global supply excess 11
12 When was the last time we saw this? Summer 2008 to 2009 history can teach us! During the supercontango, the world s biggest banks as well as most trading houses locked on an almost risk-free profit Occupancy rate over the first three quarters of 2009 was 94% on key onshore assets. Fuel storage tanks in Rotterdam, Singapore and Fujairah were full Contango reached almost 30$/bbl on a 6 months strip. With the onshore tanks full and the price of chartering ships plunging, traders found that it was economical to buy up oil and hire the ships to use as floating storage while they waited for higher prices Back in early 2009 it was estimated that it costs 50 to 60 cents each month - $6- $7.20 per year - to store each barrel on a supertanker. So as long as the contango stayed above $7 per barrel, it made economic sense to store it Across the world, record numbers of ocean-going tankers were being hired as shore tanks had filled up in 2009 there was an estimated 100 million barrels at sea according to data shared by ship-owners 12
13 Storage recent Vitol, Mercuria and Gunvor have invested heavily in storage access during the last 5 years Inquiries, investments and expansions of tank storage are growing. The storage business has been on a roll with demand for tank-space escalating in step with the boom in Asia s leading economies It is expected that all trading houses will want to play the contango and cash in against storage As in 2009 floating storage has once more become attractive: Glencore, Vitol and other active traders are all booking tankers. The demand for floating storage is typically to store for at least six months, according to tanker companies Brent crude for next October traded at $/bbl (19 th Jan), a premium of 7.03 $/bbl compared with March. According to E.A. Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd that gap needs to be about $6.50 to cover hiring a ship and other costs associated with storing crude While traders have already booked tankers to store at least 25 million barrels of oil at sea this week, land-based storage may still be a more economical option for those who can find it 13
14 Refining - global trends High refinery runs Gasoline surplus coming soon Refining sector suffers Closures and conversions Projects previously announced slip Deficit in refined products; large importer Significant refinery investment China turned net gasoil exporter in 2013 Deficit in refined products 14
15 Europe: gloomy for refining / strong for storage Demand for oil products in Europe has fallen and is not expected to recover Refineries have and will close some convert to storage Middle distillates deficit and gasoline surplus strongest trend The gasoline surplus is expected to grow even more Europe is a destination for ME / Asia new refineries surplus product ARA currently handles a large percentage of Europe s gasoline surplus Genscape data shows onshore storage facilities in the ARA hub at about twothirds full at the end of 2014 ARA has captured almost all capacity investment for expansion in recent years ARA 15
16 US production and flows The United States has far more spare storage tank capacity available than Europe or Asia U.S. crude oil stocks at highest ever level for this time of year But ample storage capacity keeps U.S. attractive WTI has hit parity with Brent after having traded at a discount to seaborne cargoes for over 4 years Traders desire to store the oil until prices recover have restarted shipping West African crude to the United States The WAF flows into U.S. reinvigorate a trade flow that had been largely shut off by the shale boom, as they were some of the first to be pushed out by increasing shale production In December 2014 reports showed US Gulf Coast storage facilities at close to 50 per cent capacity while Cushing, Oklahoma the delivery point of the US crude contract at just under 40 per cent 16
17 Other trends. Trading houses have invested in storage but during recent years many U.S. banks have been forced out of the physical commodities books Lack of cheap financing for infrastructure projects is a barrier to greenfield projects globally Independent storage providers benefit from current market conditions their shares have surged during the last few months Global shifts of demand for oil products in developing countries and environmental legislation in developed regions have caused a shift in the refining sector. According to IEA, 95% of new refinery capacity comes from the non- OECD, of which Asia accounts for half NOCs (mainly in ME / Asia) are adding refining capacity in an effort to commercialize their crude and develop downstream industries are investing in new distribution infrastructure Many NOCs and independent refiners have become more sophisticated and increased their trading capability and global reach 17
18 Conclusions On the back of the contango, demand for onshore storage as well as floating will remain strong in 2015 Many predict a floor at 40$/bbl which will imply a stronger contango than the one we see now demand for storage will increase There will possibly be an acceleration of storage expansion projects in the coming year Current market trends and increased demand favour an upward trend on storage rental rates Oil market is a cyclical market even when contango disappears, there is a longterm trend for oil products to be made at locations remote from the main markets. Demand for storage will remain strong Product specifications continue to tighten operational flexibility and blending capability will be key value drivers for storage Trade between hubs, particularly long-haul trade, will continue to grow 18
19 RPS Energy - Downstream 14 Cornhill London EC3V 3ND United Kingdom T: +44 (0) F: +44 (0) downstream@rpsgroup.com UK USA Canada Australia Malaysia Singapore Russia UAE 19
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