TRANSPORTATION PLANNING EDITION

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1 T U E S D A Y 2 6 J U L Y C O L U M B U S, O H I O FAST and Furious: Transportation Planning Edition TRANSPORTATION PLANNING EDITION Matthew Hardy, Ph.D. Program Director for Planning and Performance Management American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials 1

2 TALKING POINTS What is AASHTO Federal Legislation o FAST Act o MAP-21 Trends for Planning Big Three for Transportation Planning Professionals New Toy (aka FAST Act) Stalwart (aka MAP-21) 2

3 WHAT IS AASHTO? A nonprofit association founded in 1914 Members include: o Highway and transportation departments of the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico o 46 Associate Members from Federal, State, and Local agencies and other countries Covers all five transportation modes: Air, Highways, Rail, Transit, and Water 3

4 FAST ACT OVERVIEW 4

5 FAST ACT Funding Certainty for Five Years Contract Authority Provided for highway, highway safety, and transit programs between FY 2016 and $305 billion in total funding; $281 billion guaranteed from the Highway Trust Fund. Modest increase in Federal funding levels, slightly higher than rate of inflation. About 93 percent of highway dollars are apportioned to States. 5

6 $70 COMPARISON OF ESTIMATED ANNUAL HIGHWAY AND TRANSIT OBLIGATIONS In billions of dollars $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $ FAST Act 2. MAP-21 Current Services (Inflation-adjusted Baseline) 3. Cliff Scenario (Supportable Oblim w/ No Net New Revenue) 6

7 FAST ACT A Multimodal Program Platform Proportionate funding increases for both highway and transit programs. Formula-based National Freight Program to support highway freight movement. Continuation of bicycle and pedestrian funding program. General Fund authorization of passenger rail funding and programs, including Amtrak. 7

8 FAST ACT FAST Act s Policy Priorities Streamlined project delivery through an improved review and permitting process that can lower costs and bring benefits to users sooner. Refinement of freight policy and network to match dedicated Federal freight funding. New technologies such as connected and automated vehicles. Further innovations in project financing and procurement. Demonstration of user-fee based alternative revenue mechanisms to sustain the Highway Trust Fund over the long term. Continuation of performance-based program implementation as enacted in MAP-21. 8

9 Implementation Status Highway Safety Improvement Program PM1 - Safety Performance Measures State and Metro Planning PM2 - Pavement/Bridge Condition Measures Transportation Performance Management DOT OMB NPRM CLOSED DOT OMB FINAL Mar 14 Jun 14 Mar 14 Jun 14 Jun 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 May 15 Mar 16 Mar 16 May 16 Nov 16 Asset Management Plan PM3 - System Performance+ Measures Feb 15 May 15 Apr 16 Aug 16 Nov 16 TBD MPO Coordination Jun days TBD 9

10 Comment Review and Evaluation Transportation Performance Management INPUT PROPOSAL REVIEW FINAL MAP-21 Provisions Stakeholder Input Logical Outgrowth State of Practice 10

11 TRENDS TO WATCH FOR PLANNING 11

12 3D PRINTING S IMPACT ON TRANSPORTATION

13 FREIGHT Worldwide Container Port Traffic TEU: 20-foot equivalent units,

14 14

15 PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION IMPACT ON FREIGHT MOVEMENT Source: based on Panama Canal Expansion study, EDR Group for USDOT (MARAD) 15

16 16

17 Percentage FEDERAL GAS TAX HEADWIND: PURCHASING POWER LOSS OF GAS TAX DUE TO INFLATION SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF PURCHASING POWER Historical CPI-U Estimated CPI-U Based on 21-year Average from % Purchasing Power Loss by % Purchasing Power Loss by

18 FEDERAL GAS TAX HEADWIND: SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF PURCHASING POWER Sample of Nominal Prices Relative to Federal Gas Tax, 1993 and 2010 ITEM UNIT/DESCRIPTION PERCENT CHANGE College Tuition Average Tuition and Required Fees $ 3,517 $ 9, % Gas Per Gallon $ 1.12 $ % Movie Ticket Average Ticket Price $ 4.14 $ % House Median Price $ 126,500 $ 221,800 75% Bread Per Pound $ 1.08 $ % Income Median Household $ 31,272 $ 49,167 57% Stamp One First-class Stamp $ 0.29 $ % Beef Per Pound of Ground Beef $ 1.57 $ % Car Average New Car $ 19,200 $ 26,850 40% Federal Gas Tax Per Gallon $ $ % Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Postal Service, U.S.Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Education, National Association of Theater Owners 18

19

20 On the horizon: TECHNOLOGY OUTLOOK Dedicated, high-speed routes to accommodate driverless trucks and cars? Convenience of hands-free driving and VMT? New engineering paradigms like intersections that work without stop lights? Computer code vulnerabilities versus driver error as biggest safety challenge? 20

21 BIG THREE FOR TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROFESSIONALS 21

22 1) COORDINATION Broad-based: Statewide, Metropolitan Long-range Transportation Plans Focused: Freight, Transportation Asset Management Plans (TAMPs), Modal Plans, etc. 22

23 MPO COORDINATION Redefines a metropolitan planning area (MPA) Requires MPOs in an MPA to jointly develop unified planning products for the entire MPA 1 MTP and TIP Jointly establish performance targets! Also apply to UZA that cross State line Require dispute resolution Coordinate on any information or analyses 23

24 24

25 OHIO??? 25

26 2) DATA Collection Management Analysis 26

27 3) RELEVANCE Breadth vs. Depth of Measures Federal vs. State vs. Local Emphasis on mega o Megaregions o Megatropolis 27

28 QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION Matthew Hardy, Ph.D. Program Director for Planning and Performance Management American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials

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