Cost Estimates & Financing of a New NSR Maritime Infrastructure

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1 Cost Estimates & Financing of a New NSR Maritime Infrastructure Dr. Bjørn Gunnarsson Managing Director bjorn@chnl.no 6th Industry Seminar: NSR s Future Maritime Transportation & Logistics System DNV GL Korea, Haeundae I-Park, Busan, South-Korea, Friday December 9, 2016

2 Recent Russian Strategies for Increased Development of the NSR The State Commission on Arctic Development (2015) The Russian Far East Development Fund (2015) Free Port Initiative (2015) Russia s Integrated Development Plan for the NSR (2015) Commercial Proposal for the Development of International Container Shipping Agent on the NSR (2016) Strengthening Shipping Security along the NSR (2016) New Logistics Operator for Russian Arctic Shipments (2016) New Law on the Development of the Russian Arctic Zone (2016) Implementation Plan for the Strategy for Developing the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation and Ensuring National Security (2016) Primary Development Areas in the Russian Arctic starting in 2017 (2016) Sustainable Development Plan for the Indigenous Peoples of the North, Siberia, and the Far East (2016) Project Plan for the Arctic to 2030 (2016) Arctic Project Development Planning (2016)

3 Recent Russian Strategies for Increased Development of the NSR Russia s Integrated Development Plan for the Northern Sea Route : The plan (June 2015) stresses the importance of providing safer and more reliable navigation on the NSR for maritime export of Russian natural resource materials but also the strategic importance of NSR for Russian national security. The plan is also to increase international transit cargo transportation on NSR in partnership with Asian countries, and in particular with China Project Plan for the Arctic to 2030: Total of 150 projects to be implemented totaling nearly RUR 5 trillion (October 2016). 48% of the projects have to do with mineral processing, 16% with transport, 14% with geological exploration and shelf projects, 10% are connected with industry and energy, and 6% are environmental, telecommunications and tourist project Arctic Project Development Planning: Establish development zones in regions of the country's Arctic zone (October 2016); project offices in every Arctic region linked by a joint government management system

4 1. Major Arctic Ports Murmansk Port Murmansk Transport Hub Project: Planned construction of oil and coal terminals, container terminal, facilities to handle fertilizers, and railroad (46 km long); 22 million tons transported in 2015 The Murmansk transport hub development project is being implemented as a public-private partnership Specialized shipyard for large-scale offshore facilities (Novatek) and coastal support base for shelf projects (Rosneft) Sabetta Port Governmental program Transport System Development to 2030 provides funding valued at RUR 41.5 billion; RUR 4.4 billion investment in 2016 (RUR 3 billion prior to 2016)

5 1. Major Arctic Ports Arkhangelsk Port Arkhangelsk New Deepwater Seaport: New port 55 km north of Arkhangelsk city in the Dvina Gulf of the White Sea, operating year-round and servicing vessels up to 100,000 dwt and transporting up to 30 million tons of cargo annually by 2030; including railway connection from the city to the port; part of the Russian Transport Development Strategy to 2030; container shipping seen as a key component of the port Public-private partnership project between Arctic Transport and Industrial Centre Arkhangelsk JSC (est. in May 2016) and Chinese company Poly International Holding Co. Total amount of needed public and private investment has been estimated at RUR 45 billion - the project is linked to the Belkomur Railway Project

6 1. Major Arctic Ports Sabetta Port Development: LNG shipments begin at the end of 2017 and by 2020 cargo handling at the port is planned to reach 30 million tons; logistics port for all kinds of cargo; infrastructure also includes a 50 km long sea channel to the port Sabetta Port Public-private partnership between Novatek and the Russian federal government Russian government has invested more than RUR 47 billion in the Sabetta Port and adjacent infrastructure (as of April 2016); number of companies involved in the project is around 650 and they come from all over Russia

7 Russian Arctic Ports Vitino Onega Arkhangelsk Mezen Murmansk Kandalaksha Sabetta Naryan Mar Varandey Amdema Dikson Dudinka Igarka Tiksi Khatanga Pevek Provideniya Anadyr

8 2. Upgrading Smaller Arctic Ports Tiksi Port Provideniya Port Anadyr Port Dikson Port Pevek Port Naryan-Mar Port Ports need to be fully modernized and provide deep-draft access, refuge and salvage services as well as cargo handling and passenger/crew facilities; access for foreign vessels

NSR s Future Transshipment Hubs To Northwest Europe To East Coast of America Kirkenes-Murmansk To West Coast of America Provideniya Anadyr Nome

9 NSR s Future Transshipment Hubs To Northwest Europe To East Coast of America Kirkenes-Murmansk To West Coast of America Provideniya Anadyr Nome Anchorage Dutch Harbor Adak Island Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky To Northeast Asia An image of the Arctic sea ice on March 24, 2016 (maximum ice extent)

NSR s Future Transshipment Hubs Oil & Oil Products Dry Bulk Cargo Containers, Project Cargo Strategic Location: Proximity to several transport routes and preferably at the end of a major

10 NSR s Future Transshipment Hubs Oil & Oil Products Dry Bulk Cargo Containers, Project Cargo Strategic Location: Proximity to several transport routes and preferably at the end of a major international route; were routes divide and ships head for a number of destinations Shelter: Good shelter from swells and wind is essential; large ships are susceptible to strong winds as are large cranes Deepwater Port: The port needs to be sufficiently deep and wide, and have clear approaches that can accommodate the largest ships on the routes they serve Free of Sea Ice Year-Round: Feeder ships bringing cargo to and from the transshipment hubs are non-ice-strengthened Available Space: Land must be available to extend operations or build new wharfs to allow for future increases in shipping; several hundred hectares of land would be required for cargo/container storage and industries related to port operations

NSR s Future Transshipment Hubs Oil & Oil Products Dry Bulk Cargo Containers, Project Cargo Cargo Handling: Effective port facilities (large cranes and other loading and unloading equipment) and high

energy needs of a fleet of cargo vessels Port Services: Access to a wide range of support services including repair and maintenance services; wastewater and ballest water treatment facilities; fresh

11 NSR s Future Transshipment Hubs Oil & Oil Products Dry Bulk Cargo Containers, Project Cargo Cargo Handling: Effective port facilities (large cranes and other loading and unloading equipment) and high level of performance (short time to load and unload cargoes) Cargo Storage: Large and effective cargo storage facilities; oil/lng storage facilities are essential prerequisites for providing for the energy needs of a fleet of cargo vessels Port Services: Access to a wide range of support services including repair and maintenance services; wastewater and ballest water treatment facilities; fresh water and electricity; food; medical facilities; customs; and labour Transportation and Communication Links: Proximity to an international airport; effective railway links; roads and/or river transport; efficient international communication channels Urban Centers: Proximity to urban centres and their transport networks is an advantage, but urban development close to ports can limit future expansion possibilities

12 4. Floating Infrastructure Floating Storage & Offloading (FSO) Tanker Umba in the Kola Bay Floating Nuclear Power Plant Akademik Lomonosov 70 MWe or 300 MWh 300,000 dwt, 333 m long and 60 m wide Displacement of 21,500 tons 144 m long and 30 m wide; height 10 m Projected cost is USD 336 million

13 4. Floating Infrastructure Suggested Floating LNG (FLNG) Plant for the Yamal LNG Project Powerful Arctic Icebreakers

5. New Nuclear Icebreakers Project 22220 Project 10510 Universal Icebreaker Project 22220 (LK-60): Three nuclear 60 MW

0 m thick ice Leader Icebreaker Project 10510 (LK-110Ya): Nuclear 110 MW super icebreaker, 205 m long and 50 m wide, with

14 5. New Nuclear Icebreakers Project Project Universal Icebreaker Project (LK-60): Three nuclear 60 MW dual draft ( m) icebreakers, 173 m long and 34 m wide with displaces of 33,540 tons, capable of breaking through 3.0 m thick ice Leader Icebreaker Project (LK-110Ya): Nuclear 110 MW super icebreaker, 205 m long and 50 m wide, with a dwt of at least 55,000 tons and able to break through 4.5 m thick ice; designed to keep NSR transit navigation open year-round

5. New Diesel-Electric Icebreakers Project 22600 Diesel-Electric Icebreaker Projects 22600 (LK-25): The most powerful diesel-engine icebreaker, 25 MW, 147 meters long with dwt of 22,258 tons and

15 5. New Diesel-Electric Icebreakers Project Diesel-Electric Icebreaker Projects (LK-25): The most powerful diesel-engine icebreaker, 25 MW, 147 meters long with dwt of 22,258 tons and able to break ice up to 2 m thick Diesel-Electric Icebreaker Project 21900: Three multi-purpose icebreakers, 16 MW, 120 m long and 27.5 m wide with max. icebreaking capacity of 1.5 m Project 21900

16 5. New Icebreakers for Arctic Port Operations Icebreaker for Sabetta Port Icebreaker for Novy Port Diesel-Engine Icebreaker to Atomflot for Sabetta Port: One 10 MW icebreaker to accompany tankers to and from Sabetta Port, 84 m long with draft of 6.5 m and able to break ice up to 1.5 m thick Diesel-Engine Icebreaker to Gazprom Neft for Novy Port: Two 22 MW Icebreaker8 vessels able to break ice up to 2 m thick

17 6. Shipbuilding Industries Baltic Shipyard in St. Petersburg Vyborg Shipyard in Leningrad Admiralty Shipyard in St. Petersburg Arctech Helsinki Shipyard

18 6. Shipbuilding Industries Plans for the new Zvezda Yard outside Vladivostok Estimated costs more than RUR 100 billion ( 2,14 billion); completed in 2018 Source: dcss.ru

19 7. New High Ice-Class Cargo Vessels SCF Shturman Albanov Arc7 Oil Tanker SCF Yamal Arc7 LNG Carrier 42,000 dwt 173,000 m3 Arc7 Oil Tankers: 6 new Arc7 shuttle oil tankers (22 MW) for year-round shipment of crude oil from the Arctic Gate terminal in the Ob Bay to Murmansk. The tankers can break through ice of 1.8 m thickness without icebreaker support; constructed at Samsung Heavy Industries with an estimated price of USD 147 million for each vessel Arc7 LNG Carriers: 15 new Arc7 LNG Carriers (45 MW) servicing the Yamal LNG Plant shipping LNG from Sabetta Port both westward to Europe and eastward to NE Asian markets; double-acting and able to break through up to 2.1 m thick ice; constructed at DSME with an estimated price of USD 316 million for each vessel

20 8. Oil Terminals & Shelf Development Varandey Terminal Prirazlomnoye Platform Arctic Gate Terminal Arctic Offshore Oil Terminals: Year-round shipments of oil from Lukoil s Varandey offshore terminal (full capacity 12 million tons on oil per year); Gazprom Neft s Prirazlomnoye offshore oil platform (4.8 million tons per year); and Gazprom Neft s Arctic Gate offshore terminal (8.5 million tons of oil per year) Investment in Arctic Shelf Development Technology: Federal agencies have over 20 science research studies aimed at resolving the issues of shelf development and extraction, construction of oil platforms, and vessels Russia's investment in import substitution of Arctic shelf equipment may total RUR 3 billion in 2017

21 9. New Arctic LNG Projects Yamal LNG Yamal LNG Yamal LNG Plant: Year-round operation shipping 16.5 million tons of LNG per year; 15 Arc7 LNG tankers (172,600 m3) making about 240 port calls per year (1 tanker every 36 hours); loading of LNG to start in November 2017 The project has a total price tag of USD 27 billion, of which 12 billion is provided by Chinese banks and $13 billion by shareholder companies Shareholders are Novatek (50.1%), TOTAL (20%), CNPC (20%) and the Silk Road Fund (9.9%) Arctic LNG-2 Plant: Year-round operation in Ob Bay based on gas resources from the Gydan Peninsula; capacity of the planned plant is expected to be 16.5 million tons of LNG per year (first production phase in 2022, second in 2024 and third in 2025)

22 11. New Arctic Railway Projects Obskaya-Bovanenkovo Railway Sabetta Railway Project: Connecting Sabetta with the state railway grid: 170 km link between Sabetta and Bovanenkovo (major regional gas hub developed by Gazprom). From there railway connection already exists to Obskaya and onwards through the Komi Republic and to Arkhangelsk; project will start in 2017 funded through public-private partnership Yamal Express

11. New Arctic Railway Projects Northern Latitudinal Railway Project: A 707 km long east-west link between Nadym and Labitnangy with a bridge crossing the Ob River near the city of Salekhard Required

23 11. New Arctic Railway Projects Northern Latitudinal Railway Project: A 707 km long east-west link between Nadym and Labitnangy with a bridge crossing the Ob River near the city of Salekhard Required investments are estimated to RUR 190 billion; only the bridge across the Ob River is estimated to cost RUR 70 billion; public-private partnership Connecting Russia s Ural and West Siberian region with the NSR (initially called Ural Industrial-Ural Polar); regional hydrocarbons getting a new route to the market The railway project will link Russia s two key Arctic railway lines, the Northern Line from Arkhangelsk and the line between Nadym and Tyumen, providing a link all the way to Novy Urengov and Surgut

and Arkhangelsk (total 1161 km) The total amount of investment is estimated at RUR

24 11. New Arctic Railway Projects Belkomur Railway Project: A 712 km of new railways and upgrade of 449 km of already existing railways between Western Siberia (Urals) and Arkhangelsk (total 1161 km) The total amount of investment is estimated at RUR 350 billion (including deepwater port in Arkhangelsk); private investment being RUR 275 billion

25 11. New Arctic Railway Projects Northern Maritime Corridor Scandinavian Arctic Corridor The Barents Link Corridor

26 12. River Transport Infrastructure Provideniya Onega Murmansk Kandalaksha Vitino Arkhangelsk Mezen Naryan Mar Varandey Amdema Sabetta Dikson Dudinka Khatanga Tiksi Pevek Anadyr Kolyma River Ob River Igarka Yenisey River Lena River Petropavlovsk- Kamchatskiy

13. New Emergency Response Infrastructure Emergency Response & Rescue Centers: To be located in Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, Naryan- Mar, Dikson, Vorkuta, Nadym, Dudinka, Anadyr, Pevek,

vehicles, floating crafts as well as universal equipment for emergencies, rescues and firefighting; Marine Rescue Coordination Centers (MRCC) located in Murmansk and Dikson

27 13. New Emergency Response Infrastructure Emergency Response & Rescue Centers: To be located in Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, Naryan- Mar, Dikson, Vorkuta, Nadym, Dudinka, Anadyr, Pevek, Tiksi and Provideniye ; 4 centers are currently fully operational in Naryan-Mar, Arkhangelsk, Dudinka and Murmansk Centers equipped with aircrafts and helicopters, all-terrain vehicles, floating crafts as well as universal equipment for emergencies, rescues and firefighting; Marine Rescue Coordination Centers (MRCC) located in Murmansk and Dikson Russian Arctic Icebreakers: Ensure safety of navigation and provide various support to vessel operation if needed including emergency and rescue services, towing, refuse and salvage support

28 13. New Emergency Response Infrastructure 4 MW Multipurpose Rescue & Salvage Vessels of Arc5 ( ) Spasatel Kavdejkin Spasatel Zaborshchikov Spasatel Kavdejkin Spasatel Demidov

13. New Emergency Response Infrastructure Oblique Icebreaker «Baltika» Multipurpose Emergency & Rescue Vessel Designed by Aker Arctic Technology and built at Arctech Helsinki Shipyard in 2014 for the

29 13. New Emergency Response Infrastructure Oblique Icebreaker «Baltika» Multipurpose Emergency & Rescue Vessel Designed by Aker Arctic Technology and built at Arctech Helsinki Shipyard in 2014 for the Federal Agency for Maritime & River Transport of Russia Total power: 9 MW Propulsion power: 7.5 MW Gross tonnage: 3800 tons Crew: Ice-class: RMRS Icebreaker6 Length: 76.4 m Breadth: 20.5 m Draught: 6.3 m Speed: 14 knots Speed in 1.0 m level ice: 3 knots

30 13. New Emergency Response Infrastructure Source: Aker Arctic

14. New Monitoring & Forecasting Infrastructure Arktika-M Satellite Network Project: Multipurpose hydro-meteorological satellite for monitoring of both the atmosphere and the surface of the Earth in

31 14. New Monitoring & Forecasting Infrastructure Arktika-M Satellite Network Project: Multipurpose hydro-meteorological satellite for monitoring of both the atmosphere and the surface of the Earth in the Arctic region and to make navigation safer; two orbiting satellites, first one scheduled for launch in November 2018 and the other in 2019; planned completion of the whole system in November 2020; a tender bid of RUR 4.97 billion offered in 2016 Satellite Data Processing Centers: Remote sensing data analysis centers have been established in Murmansk, Dudinka and Anadyr; additional space service centers have already been established in Republic of Komi, the Arkhangelsk and Murmansk regions, and the Yamal- Nenets and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous areas Arctic Segment of the GLONASS System: Additional 4-6 satellites on geosynchronous inclined orbits, improving the location accuracy in the Arctic to 0.6 m

15. New Aviation & Security Infrastructure Sebetta International Airport Sabetta Airport: New airport became operational in February 2015 (developed in cooperation with Gazprom);

operational by the year 2018; they include airfields on Alexandra Island of the Franz Josef Land, Rogachevo in Novaya Zemlya, Kotelny Island on the New Siberian Islands, and in

32 15. New Aviation & Security Infrastructure Sebetta International Airport Sabetta Airport: New airport became operational in February 2015 (developed in cooperation with Gazprom); received international status in July 2015 Additional New Arctic Airfields: A total of at least 10 Arctic airfields are under constraction or modernization and will become operational by the year 2018; they include airfields on Alexandra Island of the Franz Josef Land, Rogachevo in Novaya Zemlya, Kotelny Island on the New Siberian Islands, and in Tiksi. Design work has started for additonal airfields in Nayan-Mar, Vorkuta, Alykel, and in Anadyr Security Services/Military Bases: Construction of several new Arctic security/military bases

33 Thank You!

Importance of Transshipment Hubs for the Development of the NSR Dr. Bjørn Gunnarsson, Managing Director

Importance of Transshipment Hubs for the Development of the NSR Dr. Bjørn Gunnarsson, Managing Director bjorn@chnl.no 4rd Industry Seminar: NSR s Future Cargo Base DNV GL Korea, Haeundae I-Park, Busan,