KNOWLEDGE REPORT 4.1% $ M +129,510 AT A GLANCE MARKET STATS. Market Activity Slows, But Fundamentals Point to Strong Finish
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1 KNOWLEDGE REPORT Industrial Research & Forecast Report Q Colliers International Greater Cincinnati Market Activity Slows, But Fundamentals Point to Strong Finish > VACANCY The overall market vacancy rate increased for the second consecutive quarter due to the delivery of new vacant speculative product. Even so, the current vacancy of 4.1 percent remains well below historical averages. The addition of new supply, coupled with newly vacated spaces, resulted in an increase in vacancy in the bulk warehouse and warehouse/distribution sectors to 5.3 and 4.5 percent, respectively. The supply of good quality freestanding industrial buildings remains limited as there are only 34 buildings larger than 20,000 square feet currently available. > ABSORPTION The Cincinnati industrial market recorded a slight gain in occupancy during the third quarter of just less than 130,000 square feet, bring the year-to-date total to 4.46 million square feet. The quarter s slowdown in activity doesn t appear to be a long term trend. There are currently 36 tenants searching for space in excess of 100,000 square feet, many of which began their site search within the past few months. The largest gain was in the I-71 North submarket where Premier Packaging occupied 164,175 square feet at 4219 State Route 42, while the Airport submarket posted the largest loss of 253,664 square feet primarily due to SKS Logistics vacating 253,664 square feet at Southpark Bldg 5. > RENTAL RATES The average overall market weighted asking rental rate is $4.27 per square foot, triple net, which is equal to last quarter and 10.4 percent higher than 12 months ago. Asking rates for bulk warehouse average $3.81 per square feet and have increased by 6.7 percent, year-over-year, while warehouse/ distribution product has recorded an annual increase of 16.9 percent to $4.28 per square foot. The light industrial sector has also recorded an increase in excess of 16 percent over the past 12 months to $4.56 per square foot. Rent growth in this sector is crucial to support new construction of this very supply-restrained product type. Market Indicators Relative to prior period Q Q4 2017* VACANCY NET ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION RENTAL RATE** * Projected, relative to prior period ** Warehouse rents MARKET STATS AT A GLANCE 4.1% $4.27 VACANCY RATE MARKET ASKING RENT > CONSTRUCTION Since the end of the recession, new projects have been completed totaling 15.5 million square feet, while net absorption has equaled roughly 29 million square feet. During this timeframe, vacancy plummeted by 6.3 percentage points. Immediately following the recession, developers took a very cautious approach to speculative construction for a number of years. As demand continued to outpace new supply, construction activity accelerated, reaching a 10 year high of 4.6 million square feet last year. We project a total of 3.5 million square feet to be completed by the end of 2017, while an additional 3.9 million square feet is currently under construction or scheduled to commence shortly , M UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SF)
2 Summary & Outlook While the Cincinnati industrial market experienced a decrease in market activity during the third quarter of 2017, it is not a harbinger of a downturn. The lack of good quality available space in some sectors has more than likely tempered deal volume. But demand has increased recently as evidenced by an increasing number of prospects searching for space. Especially demand for Class A logistics warehouse space. New buildings delivered to the market do not sit vacant for long. Driving demand, of course, is the rapidly growing e-commerce sector, led by the online retailing giant, Amazon. Even after selecting the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport as the site for its Prime Air hub, Amazon announced a deal for a 1.3 million-squarefoot distribution facility at Park North in Monroe and signed a lease for the 264,000-square-foot LogistiCenter at 275 #2 in Hebron near the airport. Amazon s appetite for real estate, as well as labor, seems insatiable. The Trade and Transportation sector has more than made up any jobs lost during the recession adding nearly 22,000 jobs to the Cincinnati region over the past six years. Manufacturing jobs have increased as well, totaling over 13,000 during the same period, but growth has slowed as companies implement automation processes in order to remain competitive globally. Cincinnati, as a logistics hub, will continue to service the first mile of the distribution supply chain due to its transportation network, reasonable cost of doing business and skilled labor force. Continued demand will keep occupancy at elevated levels, new supply in the pipeline and further growth in rental rates. Summary Statistics Q Cincinnati Industrial Market Cincinnati Vacancy Rate 4.1% Change From Q (basis points) Absorption Completions Under Construction Asking Rents Per Square Foot Per Year (NNN) , ,129 3,937,514 Overall Market $4.27 Bulk Warehouse $3.81 Warehouse/Distribution $4.28 Industrial Vacancy/Absorption Square Feet $ PSF (Full Service Gross) Net Absorption (SF) 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 - (1,000,000) (2,000,000) (3,000,000) Net Absorption Vacancy Rate The overall market vacancy rate increased to 4.1% during Q3, but remains well below historical averages. The occupancy gain yearto-date is near 4.5 million square feet. Bulk Warehouse Rental Rates (NNN) $4.00 $3.80 $3.60 $3.40 $3.20 $3.00 $2.80 $2.60 $2.40 $2.20 $ The average weighted asking rental rate for bulk warehouse space has increased by 6.7%, year-over-year to $3.81 per square foot. Construction History 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Completions Projected Under Construction New supply, year-to-date, totals 2.5 million square feet with another 1 million scheduled for completion by year end. Over 3.9 million square feet of new construction activity is in the pipeline. Sources: Colliers Research, Xceligent, CoStar, Bureau of Labor Statistics 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Vacancy Rate (%) Flex/R&D $ Cincinnati Research & Forecast Report Q Industrial Market Outlook Colliers International
3 Construction PROPERTY NAME PROJECT SIZE SUBMARKET OWNER CLEAR HT SPEC OR BTS TARGETED COMPLETION DATE Park North at Monroe Bldg ,911 Monroe IDI Gazeley 36 Spec Q Logistics One 541,250 Airport Van Trust 36 Spec Q Union Centre Logistics Park Bldg 1 477,360 Tri County Northpoint 36 Spec Q Logistics Two 259,350 Airport Van Trust 36 Spec Q Northwest Blvd 230,160 Tri County Exeter 32 Spec Q Florence Logistics Center 218,400 Florence/Richwood Ridgeline Property Group 32 Spec Q Jacquemin Logistics Center I 182,257 Tri County Pizzuti 32 Spec Q Jacquemin Logistics Center II 182,257 Tri County Pizzuti 32 Spec Q Fairfield Commerce Center 176,800 Tri County Becknell Industrial 32 Spec Q Notable Industrial Sales Q PROPERTY NAME/ADDRESS Port Union Commerce Park Bldgs 1-4 Evergreen Industrial Properties Portfolio SALE DATE SALE PRICE BLDG SF BUYER SELLER BUILDING TYPE SUBMARKET Jul-17 $102,100,000 1,646,914 Clarion Partners Founders Properties Bulk Warehouse Tri County Jul-17 $31,368, ,061 Ivanhoe Cambridge Inc TPG Real Estate Whse/ Distribution Multiple Submarkets 8029 Dixie Hwy Jun-17 $25,869, ,215 IRA Capital ElmTree Funds Manufacturing Florence/Richwood Northstar Center Aug-17 $5,500, ,580 Green Realty Corporation First Industrial Realty Trust Inc Flex/R&D Tri County E Kemper Rd Aug-17 $5,000, ,107 Ferguson Enterprises Inc Mae Real Estate LLC Light Industrial Tri County 5480 Creek Rd Jul-17 $4,084,000 81,681 Raymond Storage Concepts Inc Green Realty Corp Light Industrial Blue Ash Deerfield Rd Jul-17 $2,775,000 61,177 Springfield Holdings Group Willingham Associates Inc Light Industrial Blue Ash 9 Beacon Dr North Aug-17 $2,681,250 98,230 Daffin Equipment Inc New DSI Holdings Inc Light Industrial Campbell County 255 W Crescentville Rd Jul-17 $2,576,000 50,983 Don H Hinkley Profill Holdings Light Industrial Tri County 925 Laidlaw Ave Aug-17 $2,450,000 18,600 Great Lakes Construction Co AmQuip Cranes Light Industrial Central/Midtown Notable Industrial Leases Q PROPERTY NAME/ADDRESS LEASE DATE LEASE SF ASKING RATE LEASE TYPE TENANT NAME BUILDING TYPE SUBMARKET LogistiCenter at 275 Bldg 2 Sep ,000 Amazon Bulk Warehouse Airport 4219 State Route 42 Jul ,175 $2.75 NNN Premier Packaging Manufacturing I-71 Corridor New Buffington Distribution Bldg B Aug ,480 $3.25 NNN Verst Group Logistics, Inc. Bulk Warehouse Florence/Richwood Kenwood Rd Jun ,460 $3.75 NNN Charter Communications/Spectrum Bulk Warehouse Blue Ash Skyport Bldg 5 Sep ,920 Design Within Reach Bulk Warehouse Airport World Park Bldg 16 Aug-17 93,600 $3.75 NNN KW International * Whse/Dist Tri County 3023 E Kemper Rd Bldg 12 Aug-17 40,000 Cincinnati Preserving Whse/Dist Tri County 9405 Sutton Pl Aug-17 31,500 $4.50 NNN Grounds Pro Light Industrial Tri County 2791 Circleport Dr Aug-17 28,564 $5.75 Gross Larger than Life Light Industrial Airport 2430 E Kemper Rd Jul-17 20,263 $3.25 MG Republic Wire Light Industrial Tri County *Renewal or Expansion 3 Cincinnati Research & Forecast Report Q Industrial Market Outlook Colliers International
4 Cincinnati Q Industrial Submarket Data MARKET # OF BLDGS INVENTORY (SF) TOTAL AVAILABLE (SF) TOTAL VACANT (SF) TOTAL VACANCY RATE (%) SUBLEASE AVAILABLE (SF) QTRLY NET NET AVG WTD ASKING RATES (NNN) AIRPORT ,536,594 3,566,289 2,432, % 397, ,410 18,896 $4.33 Bulk Warehouse 41 18,161,870 2,388,864 1,626, % 397, ,664 21,248 $3.95 Warehouse - Distribution 40 5,052, , , % 0-11, ,485 $4.57 Flex/R&D , ,481 91, % 0-48,619-51,376 $6.33 Light Industrial 104 4,182, , , % 0-40,395-81,461 $4.73 Manufacturing 15 2,147,532 56,000 56, % ,000 $5.25 BLUE ASH ,836, , , % 58,322 77, ,234 $4.01 Bulk Warehouse 5 1,487, , , % 0-10, ,460 $3.75 Warehouse - Distribution 8 1,061, % Flex/R&D 38 1,552, , , % 58,322-1,327 2,628 $8.26 Light Industrial 163 6,141, ,536 65, % 0 88,922 67,146 $4.97 Manufacturing 20 2,594, , % $3.00 CAMPBELL COUNTY 79 3,291,315 61,540 61, % 0 0 2, Warehouse - Distribution 1 173, % Light Industrial 73 2,071,973 61,540 61, % 0 0 2, Manufacturing 5 1,045, % CENTRAL/MIDTOWN ,916,256 2,336,479 1,700, % 203,322 91, ,858 $4.54 Bulk Warehouse 3 1,017, ,368 98, % 173,876-98,492-98, Warehouse - Distribution 5 621, , % 0 45,000 45,000 $2.90 Flex/R&D , , , % 29,446 53,089 65,801 $5.81 Light Industrial ,708,480 1,428,041 1,159, % 0 3, ,410 $4.37 Manufacturing 84 14,690, , , % 0 88,489 62, COVINGTON 73 3,892,139 87,872 70, % 0-9,400 13,600 $7.00 Bulk Warehouse 2 379, % Warehouse - Distribution 1 112, % Flex/R&D 1 20, % Light Industrial 64 2,497,477 87,872 70, % 0-9,400-9,400 $7.00 Manufacturing 5 883, % , EAST ,459,116 1,462,285 1,036, % ,534-44,638 $3.89 Bulk Warehouse 3 952, , % $3.50 Flex/R&D 29 1,182, , , % 0 0-9,997 $6.76 Light Industrial 184 4,765, , , % ,466 53,666 $3.99 Manufacturing 26 5,558, , , % 0-92,000-88,307 $3.62 FLORENCE/RICHWOOD ,751, , , % 58,050-55,770 1,543,353 $3.90 Bulk Warehouse 20 8,325, , , % 0 0 1,254,304 $3.41 Warehouse - Distribution 9 1,049,319 58,050 58, % 58,050-58,050-58, Flex/R&D ,699 70,780 63, % 0-12,000-16,925 $5.34 Light Industrial 87 4,810, ,035 1, % 0 45, , Manufacturing 44 7,770, , , % 0-30,720-39,920 $3.81 HAMILTON 118 8,057, ,182 1,114, % 0 171, ,746 $4.60 Flex/R&D ,734 28,422 28, % $6.60 Light Industrial 91 3,998, , , % 0 150, ,746 $3.60 Manufacturing 16 3,808, , , % 0 21, I-71 CORRIDOR ,443, , , % 2, , ,317 $9.53 Bulk Warehouse 2 622, % Warehouse - Distribution 6 772, % Flex/R&D , ,526 93, % 2, ,080 $10.49 Light Industrial 128 4,377,337 65,600 53, % 0 1,400 19,625 $8.00 Manufacturing 36 6,069, % 0 164, , MONROE/MIDDLETOWN ,323, , , % 0 50,000 1,116,922 $4.07 Bulk Warehouse 10 6,005, , , % 0 90, ,413 $3.85 Warehouse - Distribution 11 1,324, , , % 0-36, ,420 $4.63 Flex/R&D 3 46, % Light Industrial 164 4,735, , , % 0-4,000-20,000 $6.87 Manufacturing 33 7,211, % , TRI-COUNTY ,879,825 2,855,910 2,024, % 307,227 26, ,195 $4.42 Bulk Warehouse 55 19,868, , , % 96, ,189 $3.75 Warehouse - Distribution 51 6,281, , , % 0 28, ,199 $4.11 Flex/R&D 90 4,254, , , % 1,687 10,940-17,267 $5.89 Light Industrial ,873,063 1,068, , % 208,890 33, ,312 $4.74 Manufacturing 68 9,601,335 46,238 46, % 0-46,238 25,762 $4.50 WEST 157 5,331, ,209 79, % 0 21, ,960 $6.81 Bulk Warehouse 3 1,140, % Warehouse - Distribution 1 149, % , Flex/R&D ,780 45,793 45, % $9.50 Light Industrial 134 3,019,632 88,416 34, % 0 21,976 0 $3.92 Manufacturing 9 708, % WOODLAWN/EVENDALE ,003, , , % 26,905-16, ,316 $3.39 Bulk Warehouse 2 716, % Warehouse - Distribution 1 109, % Flex/R&D ,868 66,249 52, % 8,505-9,691-2,465 $5.41 Light Industrial 208 6,947, , , % 18,400-6, ,781 $2.73 Manufacturing 28 10,666, % Grand Total 3, ,722,206 14,452,542 10,544, % 1,055, ,510 4,463,759 $ Cincinnati Research & Forecast Report Q Industrial Market Outlook Colliers International
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